San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
September 2018 housing data -- the slowdown is here
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 7, 2018 - 4:26pm
The burgeoning slowdown I described in last month's post seems to have arrived... witness, months of inventory:
That is quite a leap, putting months of inventory 63% above last September's level.
That looks pretty dramatic compared to the past 4 years, but less so if we widen our timeframe. In fact, active months of inventory in September 2014 was exactly the same as in September 2018:
That turned out just fine for home sellers as things picked up again in the spring of 2015. Perhaps it will be so again. But here are a couple things to bear in mind...
Despite the high inventory, the single family price per square foot managed to increase for the month:
But if inventory remains at this level I expect to see more declines than increases in the months ahead, especially since we now in the seasonally weak time of year anyway. The "new normal" inventory vs. price graph (which is the best fit in recent years predicts price declines at a rate of about 6%/year at this inventory level, for what that's worth.
More graphs below:
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