Zillow Data Used To Project Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Real Estate

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Submitted by phaster on June 18, 2018 - 6:35pm

a news story on NPR stated,...


Zillow Data Used To Project Impact Of Sea Level Rise On Real Estate

A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists examined how real estate values were affected in 23 coastal states. Florida has the most to lose, according to the research.

...A study out today says more than 300,000 homes in the United States are likely to see chronic flooding within the next 30 years because of sea level rise and climate change. This could cause a crisis for the housing market in some areas.

...Nationwide, residential and commercial properties valued at nearly $140 billion are at risk from the impact of sea level rise.

...We're talking in this study about a 30-year time horizon, which is the amount of time that most people get a mortgage. So if you're going to buy a house today, and you're going to get a mortgage today and you're going to be anticipating paying that off in 30 years, this is what's at risk.


locally this means places like Del Mar w/ high priced real estate (which stands firm against 'planned retreat'),... seems to me people are in denial of a problem that ultimately can't be just ignored!


Submitted by phaster on June 23, 2018 - 8:24am.


Sea Level Rise Will Threaten Thousands of California Homes

Chronic flooding will impact areas around San Francisco and Los Angeles by 2035

Sea-level rise threatens thousands of homes in California by 2035, especially in cities near San Francisco and Los Angeles, according to an analysis released today.

Chronic flooding by that year imperils nearly 5,000 homes in the Silicon Valley south of San Francisco, a region that’s home to affluent homeowners and an international airport. In the suburbs north of San Francisco, roughly 4,000 homes are at risk, according to the study from the Union of Concerned Scientists.

A decade later, if sea levels rise faster due to accelerated melting of ice sheets, roughly 13,000 homes valued at about $8.6 billion are in danger in the nine counties surrounding the San Francisco Bay Area.

The findings are part of a national report that analyzed coastal regions around the county. It identified ZIP codes most at risk, tallied the number of homes threatened, and calculated the value of those homes and the amount in property taxes that could be lost.

...The report comes just a few days after a study was published in Nature that showed the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting three times as fast as it did 25 years ago (Climatewire, June 14).

That could wallop California with greater sea rise than the world average. That’s due to a gravitational effect on ocean currents and the way the Earth rotates, according to Helen Fricker, a professor of geophysics at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, an author on that study. Three feet of sea-level rise coming from Antarctica would mean it’s 4 feet higher in California.


of related interest,...


Rising bedrock below West Antarctica could delay catastrophic ice sheet collapse

The news last week out of Antarctica was sobering. According to a consensus estimate published in Nature, the continent has lost 3 trillion tons of ice in the past 25 years—most of it from the vulnerable West Antarctic Ice Sheet, where the loss rate tripled over the study period. Although West Antarctica contributed just 6 millimeters of sea level rise in that time, scientists say ice-sheet collapse there could raise global sea levels by 3 meters in the coming centuries. The accelerating loss could be a sign that the catastrophe has already been set in motion.

But a study in this week's Science offers a glimmer of hope, documenting a process that could slow the collapse. As ice melts and the load on the crust lightens, the bedrock beneath West Antarctica is rising rapidly. In places it could rise 8 meters over the coming century—potentially protecting the ice from the warm seawater that is melting it from below. "It may just buy the world a few extra decades," says Rick Aster, a seismologist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins and an author of the new study.


basically its not a matter of "if" but "when" TSHTF WRT CA "mean sea level" RE,... or pardon the pun, beachfront RE will be "underwater"


Climate Change and Housing: Will a Rising Tide Sink All Homes?

...The median value of a home at risk of being underwater is $296,296. The value of the average U.S. home is $187,000.

...left unchecked, it is clear the threats posed by climate change and rising sea levels have the potential to destroy housing values on an enormous scale.


Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 23, 2018 - 12:01pm.

300,000 homes is nothing. They can just move!
$140 billion is what we spend in the Middle East in about a year.

Submitted by phaster on June 24, 2018 - 12:18pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
300,000 homes is nothing. They can just move!
$140 billion is what we spend in the Middle East in about a year.

perhaps you should considered various knock on effects (which is akin to a "Domino Chain Reaction")


in other words, affluent literally underwater properties


due to melting ice in the polar regions AND/OR storms, will knock over the FIRE economy (i.e. "finance," "insurance" AND "real estate")


Coastal Mortgage Value Collapse

...Debate the cause if you want to expend more hot air denying science. But it’s a fact that resale values of coastal homes in Miami, Atlantic City and Norfolk, Va. are already starting to erode.

...“A large share of homeowners’ wealth is locked up in the equity in their homes,” Becketti wrote.

“If those homes become uninsurable and unmarketable, the values of the homes will plummet, perhaps to zero.”

...“Forty percent of Americans live on the coast, which means you have trillions of dollars at risk for climate change that hasn’t been modeled for default increases.”



National Flood Insurance Program Will Pay Out Billions For A Few Properties

...The National Flood Insurance Program will be paying out billions this year floods. Floods for insurers are a risky business. That's why there is government intervention in the market. But some houses are especially risky. A tiny number of insured properties - around 1 percent - have been responsible for about a quarter of the claims paid. Planet Money's Noel King went to one of these homes just outside Houston.


The National Flood Insurance Program was operates like an insurance company in many ways except one: it just about always loses money.


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