Where's the supply?

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Submitted by AN on February 28, 2014 - 4:04pm

I thought supply usually increase after super bowl? We have less supply now in Mira Mesa than during Christmas season.

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Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 28, 2014 - 4:29pm.

JTR had something on this,

I think realtors have taken to following cars home from Funerals to find listings.

Most who are left standing can most likely can afford what ever payments they have and they most likely have been able to refinance into fixed rates they will likely never see again, it will take a powerful reason to make them move.

Submitted by CDMA ENG on February 28, 2014 - 4:33pm.

I am about ready to cry over this subject.

I have literally looked at every home in San Marcos and Carlsbad... TWICE!

CE

Submitted by AN on February 28, 2014 - 4:47pm.

CDMA ENG wrote:
I am about ready to cry over this subject.

I have literally looked at every home in San Marcos and Carlsbad... TWICE!

CE

When supply is this low, I'm sure it's not hard to look at every home twice. Considering the big run up that we had, I would assume we'd see more dream listers listing at insane prices. We don't even have that. What will price do in the spring if supply stay as low as it is right now? Will we see another 10-20% price increase?

Submitted by spdrun on February 28, 2014 - 5:07pm.

In the Northeast, where the violent Gods, Foreclosius and Shortsalius are running rabid once again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26...

Submitted by paramount on February 28, 2014 - 5:15pm.

With mortage apps at 20 year lows, we don't need the supply.

Submitted by AN on February 28, 2014 - 5:32pm.

paramount wrote:
With mortage apps at 20 year lows, we don't need the supply.

I don't see your point.

Submitted by flu on February 28, 2014 - 7:57pm.

Don't even get me started.....Quite a bit of SS fell through for me....

Submitted by CDMA ENG on February 28, 2014 - 8:57pm.

spdrun wrote:
In the Northeast, where the violent Gods, Foreclosius and Shortsalius are running rabid once again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/foreclosures-climaxing-in-new-york-new-jersey-market-mortgages.html

Now that is funny!

+1

CE

Submitted by Jazzman on February 28, 2014 - 10:47pm.

spdrun wrote:
In the Northeast, where the violent Gods, Foreclosius and Shortsalius are running rabid once again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/foreclosures-climaxing-in-new-york-new-jersey-market-mortgages.html


Seems like NY and NJ aren't the only states that have ruffled Foreclosius's feathers. Foreclosure starts jumped a whopping 57% in CA last months according DrHB http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/calif...

Submitted by flyer on March 1, 2014 - 2:15am.

Excellent article, Jazzman. Don't know if the wave of foreclosures will have much affect on the desirable/high demand areas--guess we'll just have to wait and see.

The rest of the article was interesting also--especially the part about how most Californians are living way beyond their means.

Whenever I read these stats, it still amazes me how far out on a limb people are willing to go with their finances.

As a native, the evolution of real estate in CA reminds me of a revolving door. When one group of over-extended residents vacate--for whatever reasons--another seems to come in to take their place, and on and on. Because of the demand in desirable areas, this pattern continues to keep these locations afloat--at least for now. Hopefully, they all have a plan for their endgame.

Submitted by JerseyGrl on March 1, 2014 - 7:36am.

Good article from Jazzman. I have a friend who is a bankruptcy lawyer for the DOJ here in San Diego who has mentioned the large number of cases he's seen where people are living in their houses up to 4 years without paying a mortgage and the banks doing nothing.

I found this comment in the above mentioned article:

[Once a bank forecloses on a property that starts the clock on when the bank must unload the property. Federal law allows banks to hold on to foreclosures for 5 years with a second 5 year extension if selling would do them harm].

I think the housing market here in town is extremely vulnerable and the gamble that buyers are taking isn't one we're comfortable with. We can't afford to buy a home as nice as the one we rent so we'll continue to rent.

Submitted by Gunslinger on March 1, 2014 - 9:09am.

spdrun wrote:
In the Northeast, where the violent Gods, Foreclosius and Shortsalius are running rabid once again.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-26/foreclosures-climaxing-in-new-york-new-jersey-market-mortgages.html

More nonsense. Here is the key part of the article the punk omits.

“There is a crisis, and where that crisis will play out is in inner, urban neighborhoods where unemployment is highest, credit scores are lowest and investor appetite is non-existent,” Otteau said.

So good luck buying all your foreclosures in Camden, Newark and Irvington where your complexion will get you shot after sunset. It sounds like the desirable suburbs are doing just fine. My cousin just closed on the Sale of his property yesterday in a middle class suburb of NJ. Had no problem selling it and got a good price. He will be heading out to CA as a cash buyer for a retirement home soon.

Submitted by spdrun on March 1, 2014 - 9:37am.

Sure, the inner city areas are more affected, but that doesn't mean that there aren't good deals (generally handled via short sales) to be had right now in better areas. Not necessarily the wealthiest towns, but not areas where you'll get shot after dark either. Think Morristown, a western suburb of NYC, or Hightstown near Princeton.

Please refrain from personal attacks -- they add nothing to your argument. And maybe you should do some more surfing or something; it may improve your sunny disposition.

Submitted by Gunslinger on March 1, 2014 - 9:38am.

Please refrain from your frequent, obscenity laden posts - they add nothing to your argument.

Submitted by zk on March 1, 2014 - 12:46pm.

Gunslinger wrote:
Please refrain from your frequent, obscenity laden posts - they add nothing to your argument.

Foreclosius does kind of sound more like an obscenity than a god. Especially if you just bought a house or are a permabull.

Like an obscene adjective. "I hate those foreclosius banks."

Or a verb. "That guy got foreclosiused."

Or maybe a disease. "Why is he walking like that?" "He's got foreclosius. Poor bastard never had a chance."

Submitted by joec on March 1, 2014 - 12:56pm.

JerseyGrl wrote:
I think the housing market here in town is extremely vulnerable and the gamble that buyers are taking isn't one we're comfortable with. We can't afford to buy a home as nice as the one we rent so we'll continue to rent.

This is the important point...If the numbers don't work for you, keep on renting. Out of curiosity, were things affordable to buy even at the market bottom back in 2009/10?

Are you factoring in 20% down payment, no PMI and the tax break in your calculation?

I mention it since sometimes, it seems like people try to talk themselves out of it without even running any numbers for their case and really look at how much they are paying for rent vs. a buy comparison. Remember that after 30 years, your housing cost goes closer to 0 after it's paid off. I think for a lot of us, the 30 year unfortunately comes faster than we realize.

As a primary home, I suppose I'm of the camp that wants to rent the cheapest ghetto shack I can to minimize my cost and buy something that's nicer/better that I can stay for the long (15 years or more) term. Housing prices, I think are less prone to collapse as well when you are in a "better" school district with hopefully, decent paying jobs.

Submitted by SD Realtor on March 1, 2014 - 8:16pm.

AN and CDMA - Yeah it is pretty much of a burner out there right now. Hang in there. Hopefully you will get the entitled sellers phenom to occur where every seller will list well above comps and that may help push up some inventory. It may take a few months but I maybe you get some relief in July.

As for foreclosures in San Diego county, I don't see it making much if any effect at all. Way to much cash out there still. Not to mention the government has already displayed that they will allow overall market manipulation to prevent a foreclosure inventory glut that will crash or severely depreciate housing markets.

Submitted by JerseyGrl on March 1, 2014 - 8:23pm.

We are in our early 50s, no kids no debt. Lots of savings. No, it was never "affordable". The bank says we can afford to buy and would love to lend us a large amount of money, so we can buy a house here, or retire. I choose retire. My husband has his own business so he can work from anywhere. We'll probably move to Ashville NC (he's from there)next year and buy a house with cash. I don't want to work another 10 years.

Submitted by JerseyGrl on March 1, 2014 - 8:24pm.

We are in our early 50s, no kids no debt. Lots of savings. No, it was never "affordable". The bank says we can afford to buy and would love to lend us a large amount of money, so we can buy a house here, or retire. I choose retire. My husband has his own business so he can work from anywhere. We'll probably move to Ashville NC (he's from there)next year and buy a house with cash. I don't want to work another 10 years.

Submitted by spdrun on March 1, 2014 - 9:10pm.

Not to mention the government has already displayed that they will allow overall market manipulation to prevent a foreclosure inventory glut that will crash or severely depreciate housing markets.

Pointing you to East Coast markets that are getting glutted with foreclosures and shorts again after a hiatus. IMHO, same thing may occur in CA -- combination of rise in interest rates and new foreclosures coming online after banks "learning" to foreclose/going through proper motions under the CA Homeowners' Bill of Rights. The government will only act on the national market. Individual markets are easily subject to 10-20% fluctuations, and CA is ripe for it after the run up of the last year. Not a crash, but a 10-20% correction. As happened once already ca. 2010-11, after the homeowners' credit and the foreclosure moratorium expired.

Submitted by AN on March 2, 2014 - 12:50am.

SD Realtor wrote:
AN and CDMA - Yeah it is pretty much of a burner out there right now. Hang in there. Hopefully you will get the entitled sellers phenom to occur where every seller will list well above comps and that may help push up some inventory. It may take a few months but I maybe you get some relief in July.

As for foreclosures in San Diego county, I don't see it making much if any effect at all. Way to much cash out there still. Not to mention the government has already displayed that they will allow overall market manipulation to prevent a foreclosure inventory glut that will crash or severely depreciate housing markets.

The supply of well above comps will do me no good, I'm a cheapskate who want a killer deal :-). I'm kicking myself for not going "all in" in 2008-2011, so I'm hanging my hope on a foreclosure tsunami that spdrun keep on talking about.

Submitted by flyer on March 2, 2014 - 6:20am.

JerseyGrl wrote:
We are in our early 50s, no kids no debt. Lots of savings. No, it was never "affordable". The bank says we can afford to buy and would love to lend us a large amount of money, so we can buy a house here, or retire. I choose retire. My husband has his own business so he can work from anywhere. We'll probably move to Ashville NC (he's from there)next year and buy a house with cash. I don't want to work another 10 years.

Sounds like a good plan, JG.

We're also in our 50's, and had we not purchased our properties in CA (most in San Diego) and elsewhere years ago, I seriously doubt if we would take on mortgage burden in at this point in time, either.

With the kids settled, little debt, and retirement planning pretty much a done deal for us, I can completely relate to your plans to enjoy your lives relatively debt free.

Enjoy!

Submitted by JerseyGrl on March 2, 2014 - 3:33pm.

As best a plan we can come up with. I've lived in CA since 1982, most of that time single in San Francisco (rent control). It was very hard leaving San Fran and will be almost as hard leaving San Diego. :(

Submitted by spdrun on March 2, 2014 - 3:39pm.

If you're semi-retired and an empty-nester, can't you just pick up a condo in the $100k-$200k range? Or a fixer-upper bungalow in a poorer area, since schools are irrelevant.

Submitted by joec on March 2, 2014 - 7:19pm.

Yeah, I think for your case, if you're planning to move in a year, it's really not wise to buy anything. Honestly, as I posted on this or another thread, I don't think a home purchase is high for people in your demographic. If anything, people may consider selling and downsizing to generate cash if they are planning for retirement and kids are out of the house, don't need the prime school district, etc...

Only risk is that as you know, rent prices are out of your control so, really IMO, I just don't like that lack of control and being forced to move. This is a bigger pain again if you have kids and without any kids, it's really hard to imagine any need at times to even buy anything honestly.

It sounds like you have a well priced rental and like it, but it's hard to tell how the next one will be. Again, the lack of control.

Best of luck and honestly, I am of the same mindset as you if i was in your situation since I know I wouldn't buy in your case neither...unless like spdrun mentioned, you can get something really cheap/all cash, etc...

With retirement, you don't even need the tax deduction anymore so that makes very little sense again for your situation/demographic.

For the areas I'm searching for,

Submitted by flu on March 12, 2014 - 3:02pm.

Cuckcoo.... Cuckcoo......

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10774...

600sqft 1/1
$240,000

What i want to know is...How the hell did the seller get a killer deal at $100k that closed 11/2013

As far as inventory for 1/1 currently in MM....

There are 3...Yup... three....Edit.. There are 4 according to sdlookup....

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