Where will 30yr mortgage rates be on May 1, 2022?

Submitted by XBoxBoy on September 23, 2021 - 3:03pm
Less than 2.5
13% (1 vote)
2.5 to 3.0
25% (2 votes)
3.0 to 3.5
38% (3 votes)
3.5 to 4.0
25% (2 votes)
4.0 to 4.5
0% (0 votes)
Over 4.5
0% (0 votes)
Total votes: 8
Submitted by XBoxBoy on September 23, 2021 - 3:04pm.

I picked May 1, 2022 just to have a specific date. But I'm wondering about when next springs buying season gets going.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 24, 2021 - 9:13am.

IMO the FED learned it's lesson from 2005-8.

They will keep rates low no matter what IMO,

It's weird IMO almost like the 70's when they tried to limit inflation with price fixing (all these shortages).

IMO China will not let their property markets crash and the Fed is trying to follow the same playbook.

But its just my opinion.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 24, 2021 - 9:13am.

dup

Submitted by plm on September 24, 2021 - 11:56am.

The way I understand it is:
Fed tapers the QE
Bond rates go higher drawing money back out of stocks/Reits
Stocks will underperform due to higher borrowing costs, expected higher corporate tax rates.
Growth slows down because companies can not grow as fast.
Covid is brought under control causing more inflation.
Fed raises rates to slow down inflation back to 2 percent.
Bond rates go even higher drawing more money out of stocks/Reits
Mortgage rates go up with Fed raising rates, causing housing appreciation to slow
Growth stocks will underperform more due to even higher borrowing costs.

So if this can be done slowly then things will be a nice orderly balance back to normality. And if not, then we get market crash/recession again.

Does that sound right?