Where is the inventory, where is the inventory, where is the inventory...

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Submitted by Coronita on April 9, 2012 - 11:01am

92130 and 92126: it's pathetic.

...trickle trickle trickle trickle trickle.

That is all..

(end vent)

Submitted by an on April 9, 2012 - 11:20am.

Where's the spring inventory?

Submitted by lpjohnso on April 9, 2012 - 12:23pm.

It's pretty shocking.

Submitted by desmond on April 9, 2012 - 2:29pm.

How about some of the experts on this site come up with the reasons there is no inventory. I have heard for years that people would sell when home prices go back up, yet there is no inventory?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 9, 2012 - 2:52pm.

Disclaimer No expert ,
If another down turn were to occur in the economy then I think there will be more distressed homes on the market.
I think we would need to get within 10-15% of peak before you get current non distressed owners to voluntarily come off the bench in mass. The problem with that is the few distressed homes that do trickle onto the market keep the comps down so there would be a lot of difficultly getting someone qualified for a loan at that amount.

Builders same, I think they need to clear 15-20 percent or so after land/entitlements building costs etc... Before they will come off the bench as well.

Submitted by treehugger on April 9, 2012 - 3:04pm.

As a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.

If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits....we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.

I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods....really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081....takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.

Submitted by Coronita on April 9, 2012 - 3:13pm.

treehugger wrote:
As a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.

If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits....we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.

I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods....really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081....takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.

Sigh. never mind...

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 9, 2012 - 3:24pm.

desmond wrote:
How about some of the experts on this site come up with the reasons there is no inventory. I have heard for years that people would sell when home prices go back up, yet there is no inventory?

OK, desmond, I'll take the bait ;=]

I've stated this before here, but I'll reiterate with a slightly different slant ...

I don't think "people" (longtime owners of prime properties in the best hands) are necessarily looking for 2005-2006 to repeat itself. They are more concerned with putting their well-maintained properties on the market (that they may have many thousands of dollars of "sweat equity" invested in over the years) at 1999 to 2002 prices in order to even get any offers! Most youngish buyers today not only want everything "perfect" but if they have school-age children, the schools in seller's attendance area must be "top notch" as well. If there are anything this buyer pool perceives as "flaws" in seller's property even if it isn't really a "flaw" (such as a T-lock shingle roof in those areas where they are common), they are believed to just want to "lowball" even a circa 2002 asking price!

I think "equity-sellers" would list if they didn't think it would be a waste of time in that they believe they would only get offers reflecting their property's value 10-15 years ago. 1999-2002 was long before routine "loose lending" led to the millenium boom and subsequent crash, yet many areas' recent sales prices seem to have "over-corrected" to this era, mainly due to lazy (and ignorant, obviously out-of-area) lenders have been foregoing so much debt of late to consummate a short sale that they allowed their deadbeat homedebtors to sell at prices well under the current market.

The current sentiment out there among "would-be sellers" is that the vast majority of current buyers (with families) only want a deeply discounted bargain, preferably with as low a PPSF as possible. This seems to be THE most important buying consideration (even if the buyers don't really need it, won't be able to use it and can't afford to furnish it)! They want this so much that they are often VERY flexible on zip code and area, even at the expense of greatly increasing their daily commute! Thus, they end up migrating to areas with heavy distress (where larger homes were built during the millenium boom and originally "creatively financed") where they can find a multitude of distressed sellers to sell to them at a deep discount (w/their lender(s) permission, of course). However, it's only a "deep discount" of millenium boom pricing (which was grossly inflated due to loose lending practices) so is not really "discounted" but listed at what it SHOULD have sold for in the first place. The "perception" of a "deep discount" in distressed areas is there among buyers, however.

All along, these buyers could have considered an older property in a GREAT low-or-no-distress location with a motivated seller who would have been willing to sell at 2003 pricing but however well-located and convenient it might be, alas, it is probably too "flawed" for the above reasons.

So the longtime "equity owners" just keep their properties off the market (even rent them out if need be) to await a time where all the "perceived deep discounts" are gone. Until there is again a preponderance of "equity" or "traditional" listings over "distressed" listings (my guess is 80% (equity)/20% distressed or better), these "potential sellers" will not list. They have these choices because they have been "prudent" and played by the rules over the years or own free and clear.

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 9, 2012 - 3:23pm.

I know that what I have stated is that in 2012 we were going to see quite extraordinary measures that the govt was going to implement in the face of moral hazard. That these measures would serve to keep distressed inventory at a trickle. Furthermore prices are not even close to coming up to what they need to be to get the majority of the seriously underwater folks off the pine and to sell their homes. So we are in no mans land. As long as there is hope for market improvement then the distressed pipe will still drip. Once again, we need some sort of catalyst. Hopefully with the settlement of robosigning we may see some increased reo inventory. However the SD County submarket is tough right now.

Maybe Markmax's tsunami will come ashore... my bet is not.

Welcome to market manipulation 101.

Hope you have enjoyed the course.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 9, 2012 - 3:32pm.

treehugger wrote:
As a potential buyer right now it is tough! Prices are good, interest rates are great, yet inventory sucks! I hope once we get out of this feeding frenzy spring season things will balance out.

If it is a regular sale-turnkey property it goes pending within hours of hitting the mls. I saw a house that was fantastic, regular sale folks had owned it for 10+ years beautiful, definitely over all the comps for the neighborhood, went pending with multiple full price offers in days. If it is overpriced and needs some work it sits....we put in an offer a few weeks back on a foreclosure, bank countered at full list price. We walked. Now bank has reduced the price significantly and we are going for it again.

I am continuing to stalk my favorite neighborhoods....really want that phenom deal in Ocean Hills (92056) or 92081....takes patience, which is not a virtue I possess.

treehugger, I really think you will be able to land yourself a deal on something you like in O'side or Vista. If you don't mind my asking, do you (or your spouse) work at Camp Pendleton?

Submitted by Coronita on April 9, 2012 - 3:35pm.

You know. I want to say i think part of the reason why there is an appetite locally for homes is the stock market is (was) doing pretty peachy for some of the local companies. What will be interesting in the next two months, if we see things tank, I'm sort of thinking it would shake out *some* of the buyers... But then again, the irony is that if it tanks a lot, it might end up shaking out a lot more buyers, including me.

So we have the "frenzy" paradox. We're no better off than most everyone else (although some of us like to think we are).

It reminds of folks trying to buy real estate in Manhanttan. When WS bonuses are great, everyone's buying. When WS bonuses suck donkey butt, no one's buying... Funny how it works.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 9, 2012 - 3:54pm.

When the builders build in the area you are looking, what are the prices they are asking and what features are they including?

There is your answer as to when current non-distressed owners will come off the bench and decide to list IMO.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 9, 2012 - 4:14pm.

Price declines have stopped, there are some signs prices could start rising (and people have seen how much and how fast they can rise) rents are rising, people who needed to get out already did for the most part, most people with equity are happy where they are.....why sell?

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 9, 2012 - 4:16pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Price declines have stopped, there are some signs prices could start rising (and people have seen how and how fast they can rise) rents are rising, people who needed to get out already did for the most part, most people with equity are happy where they are.....why sell?

I understand all this, but am STILL seeing properties that have now had more than a dozen TS postponements. Two of these have opening bids equal to 2x current market value! One has to wonder why the affected lender has chosen to let the situation get this far out of hand.

I'm also seeing NOD's filed between one and two years ago that couldn't have possibly been cured/redeemed and where no NOS has yet been filed. It is worrisome to me what may be going on here, ESP since I have knowledge that some of the particular homedebtors in question have little to no real income to speak of.

I often wonder how many of these older NOD's there are out there filed on properties in which the current notes(s) secured by TD's cannot successfully be modified. More specifically, I wonder at what degree of being "shafted" by game-playing homedebtors will these affected lenders finally call it a day and do what they should have done all along ... that is, foreclose.

I wish the law in CA provided for mandatory recordation of mortgage loan mods. This would clear up a lot of public confusion as to how MUCH "distress" actually still remains in the RE market.

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 9, 2012 - 7:01pm.

I would not be as concerned with how much distress is still out there. I would be much more concerned with how the govt lets/encourages the lenders to not do a damn thing about it.

The problem is not the quantity. The problem is that govt has decided that impeding the process that was supposed to be in place to liquidate the defaults was not acceptable.

It has been decided that the quantity is acceptable even if it takes 5, 10, maybe 20 years to liquidate it.

Submitted by Coronita on April 9, 2012 - 8:20pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
I would not be as concerned with how much distress is still out there. I would be much more concerned with how the govt lets/encourages the lenders to not do a damn thing about it.

The problem is not the quantity. The problem is that govt has decided that impeding the process that was supposed to be in place to liquidate the defaults was not acceptable.

It has been decided that the quantity is acceptable even if it takes 5, 10, maybe 20 years to liquidate it.

And i guess if it's trickle trickle trickle a few groups to private investment groups on wall street, who then trickle trickle back to individuals, who really would notice. Brilliant plan... Really brilliant...

Submitted by treehugger on April 9, 2012 - 10:26pm.

bearishgurl wrote:

treehugger, I really think you will be able to land yourself a deal on something you like in O'side or Vista. If you don't mind my asking, do you (or your spouse) work at Camp Pendleton?

I know i will get a deal, 'cause i am obsessive and we want a fixer upper, which most other buyers aren't as eager for.

As for Pendleton.....Maybe.....Why do you ask?

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 9, 2012 - 11:04pm.

treehugger wrote:
bearishgurl wrote:

treehugger, I really think you will be able to land yourself a deal on something you like in O'side or Vista. If you don't mind my asking, do you (or your spouse) work at Camp Pendleton?

I know i will get a deal, 'cause i am obsessive and we want a fixer upper, which most other buyers aren't as eager for.

As for Pendleton.....Maybe.....Why do you ask?

Congrats on being able to work with a fixer-upper, treehugger! Those are the most profitable properties to buy ... at the right price, of course.

I asked because your zip code parameters are indicative of a Federal gov't worker working at Pendleton ... and you previously stated here that you worked for the Federal gov'mt.

It's okay. I have no interest in who you are or what you buy ... just curious :=]

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 9, 2012 - 11:17pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
...It has been decided that the quantity is acceptable even if it takes 5, 10, maybe 20 years to liquidate it.

So I take it that what you're stating here is that, meanwhile, all these "defaulting trustors" get to live for FREE, on their neighbor's dime, of course!

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 10, 2012 - 6:09am.

Of course. What are you surprised by this? It has been going on for the past 3 years.

Wake up.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 10, 2012 - 10:37am.

SD Realtor wrote:
Of course. What are you surprised by this? It has been going on for the past 3 years.

Wake up.

Duh.

It doesn't make it right. The laws in CA protect the lenders from these great losses. The lenders are choosing instead to fvck themselves at all of our expenses while these cunning "deadbeat homedebtors" are driving and vacationing with their "former pseudo-equity" and then later aided in "debt-forgiveness" by SS agents and attorneys.

It's absolutely disgusting to the rest of us who have always lived within our means and whose home values have taken a nosedive ... more than the "millenium-boom crash" of '07/'08 warranted.

I don't buy that SS's are typically sold at market value. I believe they are sold 20-45% off the current market value, regardless of condition.

Why should the rest of our properties somehow be suddenly "worth" 1999-2002 prices today? Does that "make sense" to you? How do YOU think this "over-correction" happened??

Hint: It wasn't due to REO's which were fixed up and resold at market value.

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 10, 2012 - 11:03am.

Sorry if you cannot figure it out, you will have to ask someone else to explain it to you.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 10, 2012 - 2:50pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
Sorry if you cannot figure it out, you will have to ask someone else to explain it to you.

Oh, I have it "figured out," all right. It just seems that many of those in the "biz" (you, for instance?) appear to be giving the impression here that you think it's all okay and it's "all going to work itself out" in 5, 10, 15 or 20 years.

Meanwhile, the value of your OWN properties have no doubt plummeted in the last five years.

I am aware that the RE lobby incl NAR/CAR believes in SS and debt forgiveness (even for those who took "cash out" of their properties). The reason is that it is good for biz and gives brokers and agents something to do (conduct SS's) while we all wait with baited breath for the PTB to get their sh!t together and suspend all "extend and pretend" programs that aren't working and will never receive the cooperation of the Big Banks. Why? Because banks only have to follow the laws and these failed "programs" aren't codified into "law."

And they shouldn't anyway. It's not good for them. But neither is sitting on their hands.

It's all one big hobo show that the honest homeowners are watching from box seats.

Using my useless 851 FICO score as an example, in hindsight, I probably would have been a lot further ahead in life by taking $250K+ out of my property during the "boom" years and then giving "cash for keys" in 2007! I would likely have now been five years into a "deed-in-lieu" on my credit report, had lots of money in the bank and perhaps been on my way to qualifying for another home loan. Instead, I don't believe I could recover my 30% downpayment from 11+ years ago and do not know WHEN I will be able to!

I KNOW people who have given deed-in-lieus in 2007 - 2008. Two actually STILL have $$ left under their mattresses and are still driving their late-model luxury vehicles (bought with pseudo-home-equity)!

Both are women and whenever I see them, they appear to have just stepped out of the salon (with hair/nails always freshly done) .... lol

Go figure ..... we can easily surmise why people are attracted to "strategic default," ESPECIALLY if they have already extracted all the cash they were able to from their property.

Submitted by profhoff on April 10, 2012 - 3:02pm.

All I can say is that after 4 years and one depressing SS experience that went nowhere, we are finally in escrow. Locked and loaded!

Thank goodness, because there is nothing but NOTHING out there and we found something nice. Kudos to JtR who made it happen after we had given up all hope.

Now, let's just make it through the inspection...

Submitted by lpjohnso on April 10, 2012 - 3:05pm.

Congrats, prohoff! I wish you the best of luck!

Submitted by CA renter on April 10, 2012 - 3:21pm.

Awesome news, profhoff! :)

Good luck with your escrow. Let us know how it goes as things move forward.

It's scary to see how little inventory there is.

Submitted by an on April 10, 2012 - 3:35pm.

BG, how do you have a FICO score that's higher than the max of 850?

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 10, 2012 - 3:48pm.

Yes, congrats, profhoff! I'm hoping you can overcome the pet-allergen issue, which seems doable to me, esp since you stated here that your property in escrow does not have carpet/drapes.

http://piggington.com/pet_odors_what_are...

I understand what you are saying about nothing being out there on the MLS to view/make offers on.

I haven't yet studied the "low-inventory" situation in SD County zip codes I watch but nine days ago (as a "test"), I saved 10 *new* SFR listings (up to $800K) on realtor.com in four close-in bay area zip codes and yesterday checked back on the site.

ALL of my saved entries of 4/1/12 had been taken off the market. Entire cities in Contra Costa County have had 0-6 SFR active listings (merely a handful) priced under $800K on its MLS at any given time in 2012.

The avg market time until an accepted offer (for a "traditional" sale) there appears to be about 1-5 days. I'm sure the agents up there (with buyers at the ready) must be once again "door-knocking" and "cold calling" for listings.

The average age of a "scarfed up" property in the bay area zips in my "test" was about 55 years old. If properties in close-in zip codes in SD County are selling like this, then perhaps pricing IS picking up or will be soon :=]

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 10, 2012 - 3:55pm.

AN wrote:
BG, how do you have a FICO score that's higher than the max of 850?

It is my current Experian score. The max is 900 for that repository, I believe.

The last time I checked my other scores, they were 804 (Trans Union) and 811 (Equifax). That was about 3-4 years ago but nothing has changed since then in my situation.

Submitted by bearishgurl on April 10, 2012 - 3:59pm.

AN, what's the point of stellar credit if you can't even recover your downpayment from your existing property to retire elsewhere?

That's why I stated I may have been better off removing $250K+ of my home "equity" back in 2004-2006. By the time I want to move away and "retire" (2014), the "deed-in-lieu" incident would have been 7-8 years behind me.

And I would have had the "mattress-cash" for a downpayment when my credit recovered :=}

Submitted by SD Realtor on April 10, 2012 - 5:59pm.

Really show me a post where I said it is okay.

Go ahead, continue to make things up.

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