When will it be time to buy again?

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Submitted by moneymaker on November 16, 2018 - 5:49pm

My guess is when the majority of houses are no longer being staged!

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 16, 2018 - 6:43pm.

About a year after a recession has been announced.
First, we find out about recessions more than 2 quarters after the fact.
Second, it takes some time for a recession to have an effect on housing, because people lose their jobs first and their houses later, or they have to sell to make ends meet.
Third, psychology is negatively affected after the latter 2.

That applies to cyclical recessions, not like the 2008 housing led recession.

Submitted by ltsdd on November 17, 2018 - 11:00am.

It will be time to buy again when interest rates are back to at least 6%. I don't think there will be a crash anytime soon, though. Not next year, not in 2020.

Submitted by flu on November 17, 2018 - 12:57pm.

when you have money to buy

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 17, 2018 - 3:05pm.

ltsdd wrote:
It will be time to buy again when interest rates are back to at least 6%. I don't think there will be a crash anytime soon, though. Not next year, not in 2020.

I think high/rising rates would indicate a peak. When things are bad, the Fed will drive rates down to get activity moving again

Submitted by barnaby33 on November 19, 2018 - 9:40am.

Based on the last cycle, 3-5 years after the peak. Admittedly your area may very. My bestie and Temecula guy got smoking deals in Temecula earlier, because it crashed earlier. I bout in MV in Aug 12 and missed the bottom by 9 months or so.

If my memory serves me the peak was somewhere between Aug of 05 and Aug of 06, depending on which set of numbers you were looking at. I tend to remember it as the former. So for me the bottom came 6 years after. The last cycle was ahistoric and the largest ever seen so our mileage may very.

Also if mortgages go back above historical averages, something like 8% on a 30 year fixed I'm guessing it'll be time to buy.

Josh

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 19, 2018 - 9:58am.

IMO it depends.

IMO it is extremely unlikely we will see anything like the percentage drops in the last crash.

So it depends on what you are buying for.

If buying primary, it most likely will not pay to wait (cost of renting, time loss etc...).

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 19, 2018 - 12:37pm.

Looking at aggregate numbers is one thing.... but when you buy, compare your PPSF purchase within a neighborhood. I'm so smart in the art of the deal because I paid the lowest PPSF, not once but twice. That was quite a feat, well past the statistical bottom.

It's like a game. You need a sense of competition and humor.

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