Sorry, I think I screw up the Sorry, I think I screw up the last poll by editing the title, so I created this one and close the last one.
Since housing related thread is quite slow around here lately, I’ll try my hand at a poll and see if we can have a lively discussion. My guess would be 15 years from today. Which would bring peak to peak price of ~19 years. Which is ~ 2x longer than the last peak to peak.
The follow up question is, now that we saw what happened 4 years after the crash, how will the rest of the curve look like before we see 2005 price again?
Eugene
October 1, 2009 @
12:49 AM
Depends on where you look. Depends on where you look. High-end bubble was a lot smaller and we might see 2005 prices there as soon as 2015. Places like Logan Heights and Lemon Grove may not see the return of 2005 prices till 2035. That all depends on inflation, of course. And on the singularity timeline. Chances are good that the technological singularity will arrive and make all house prices irrelevant before the low end reaches the bubble level of 2005.
Nor-LA-SD-guy
October 1, 2009 @
5:40 AM
My guess in most of SoCal we
My guess in most of SoCal we will see home prices back at 2005 levels (not inflation adjusted) somewhere between 2015 and 2017.
Just my guess.
(former)FormerSanDiegan
October 1, 2009 @
7:36 AM
Nominal 2005 prices by ~ Nominal 2005 prices by ~ 2020.
davelj
October 1, 2009 @
8:49 AM
I’m assuming we’ll be I’m assuming we’ll be flattish for the next 3-5 years (maybe down another 10%-15% then that gets retraced over the period). Then we’ll need an 80% increase to get back to where we were (we were down 45%, so 45/55 is 82%) at the peak. So, that’s 20 years of 3% increases plus 3-5 years of flattish prices. Yeah, 20-25 years sounds about right to me.
oxfordrick
October 1, 2009 @
9:26 AM
Housing returns to 2005 Housing returns to 2005 nominal prices when NASDAQ returns to the 5000 plus print from 2000.
Just trying to put things into perspective, could say never but government may just succeed in inflating us out of this mess….
Good luck to us all. Carefully gather cash, avoid debt, be ready to take on mega leverage when the train finally leaves the station. Nice thing about cash is that you can buy tickets to ride!
sdcellar
October 1, 2009 @
10:05 AM
Being a conservative guy, I Being a conservative guy, I pulled something of a “Price Is Right” and chose “< 25”. A twenty five year span seems to give me the best chance of being right (which I always enjoy).
That said, AN, I’m surprised that you think nominal won’t come back for 15 years. I thought you were pretty sold on inflation. Nominal prices should come back much more quickly in an inflationary environment.
an
October 1, 2009 @
10:30 AM
I’m sold on inflation, but I’m sold on inflation, but I’m not sold in hyperinflation. If price start rising next year at 5% every year, it’ll take 15 years to regain the 50% decline some place have experienced. Which means if you buy today(in areas that decreased 50%), your place will double in 15 years. Which I don’t think is too outrageous, since at 3% inflation, you’re looking at doubling your money in 24 years (or reducing the worth of your money in 1/2 in 24 years, depending on how you look at it). BTW, 15 years is pretty quick for me. If I’m in the deflation and flat line camp, I’d say >30 years.
sdcellar
October 1, 2009 @
1:35 PM
Okay, so 5% inflation. Do you Okay, so 5% inflation. Do you think home prices are going to appreciate at that rate as well? You must, I guess, based on your 15 year call.
Real estate appreciation has exceeded inflation in recent years. Wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect that it might lag inflation in some number of coming years? I suppose you could have a couple of cycles that could offset each other.
Certainly, this is what makes 15, 20, 30 year timeframes tough to get any handle on.
an
October 1, 2009 @
2:32 PM
If we see 1970-1980 inflation If we see 1970-1980 inflation #, then we definitely will get to peak price much faster. between 70s-80s, inflation were anywhere between 4% and 15%. For years that we see 15% inflation, if housing price only rise 10%, that’s still well below inflation #.
If inflation stay between 5-7%, which is less than what we saw in the 70s, and if house rise less than inflation at 5%, we’ll see peak price again in ~15 years. So, inflation is a huge wild card.
sdrealtor
October 1, 2009 @
3:05 PM
sdcellar
Back down to sdcellar
Back down to 9500;)
sdr
sdcellar
October 1, 2009 @
3:32 PM
sdr– that’s funny. I heard sdr– that’s funny. I heard the news last night about CIT, and between that and September ending thought the market might take a good whack today. Guess who I thought of next?
Your financial advice ain’t all that bad for a NAR shill! :-O
October 1, 2009 @ 12:37 AM
Sorry, I think I screw up the
Sorry, I think I screw up the last poll by editing the title, so I created this one and close the last one.
Since housing related thread is quite slow around here lately, I’ll try my hand at a poll and see if we can have a lively discussion. My guess would be 15 years from today. Which would bring peak to peak price of ~19 years. Which is ~ 2x longer than the last peak to peak.
The follow up question is, now that we saw what happened 4 years after the crash, how will the rest of the curve look like before we see 2005 price again?
October 1, 2009 @ 12:49 AM
Depends on where you look.
Depends on where you look. High-end bubble was a lot smaller and we might see 2005 prices there as soon as 2015. Places like Logan Heights and Lemon Grove may not see the return of 2005 prices till 2035. That all depends on inflation, of course. And on the singularity timeline. Chances are good that the technological singularity will arrive and make all house prices irrelevant before the low end reaches the bubble level of 2005.
October 1, 2009 @ 5:40 AM
My guess in most of SoCal we
My guess in most of SoCal we will see home prices back at 2005 levels (not inflation adjusted) somewhere between 2015 and 2017.
Just my guess.
October 1, 2009 @ 7:36 AM
Nominal 2005 prices by ~
Nominal 2005 prices by ~ 2020.
October 1, 2009 @ 8:49 AM
I’m assuming we’ll be
I’m assuming we’ll be flattish for the next 3-5 years (maybe down another 10%-15% then that gets retraced over the period). Then we’ll need an 80% increase to get back to where we were (we were down 45%, so 45/55 is 82%) at the peak. So, that’s 20 years of 3% increases plus 3-5 years of flattish prices. Yeah, 20-25 years sounds about right to me.
October 1, 2009 @ 9:26 AM
Housing returns to 2005
Housing returns to 2005 nominal prices when NASDAQ returns to the 5000 plus print from 2000.
Just trying to put things into perspective, could say never but government may just succeed in inflating us out of this mess….
Good luck to us all. Carefully gather cash, avoid debt, be ready to take on mega leverage when the train finally leaves the station. Nice thing about cash is that you can buy tickets to ride!
October 1, 2009 @ 10:05 AM
Being a conservative guy, I
Being a conservative guy, I pulled something of a “Price Is Right” and chose “< 25”. A twenty five year span seems to give me the best chance of being right (which I always enjoy).
That said, AN, I’m surprised that you think nominal won’t come back for 15 years. I thought you were pretty sold on inflation. Nominal prices should come back much more quickly in an inflationary environment.
October 1, 2009 @ 10:30 AM
I’m sold on inflation, but
I’m sold on inflation, but I’m not sold in hyperinflation. If price start rising next year at 5% every year, it’ll take 15 years to regain the 50% decline some place have experienced. Which means if you buy today(in areas that decreased 50%), your place will double in 15 years. Which I don’t think is too outrageous, since at 3% inflation, you’re looking at doubling your money in 24 years (or reducing the worth of your money in 1/2 in 24 years, depending on how you look at it). BTW, 15 years is pretty quick for me. If I’m in the deflation and flat line camp, I’d say >30 years.
October 1, 2009 @ 1:35 PM
Okay, so 5% inflation. Do you
Okay, so 5% inflation. Do you think home prices are going to appreciate at that rate as well? You must, I guess, based on your 15 year call.
Real estate appreciation has exceeded inflation in recent years. Wouldn’t it be reasonable to expect that it might lag inflation in some number of coming years? I suppose you could have a couple of cycles that could offset each other.
Certainly, this is what makes 15, 20, 30 year timeframes tough to get any handle on.
October 1, 2009 @ 2:32 PM
If we see 1970-1980 inflation
If we see 1970-1980 inflation #, then we definitely will get to peak price much faster. between 70s-80s, inflation were anywhere between 4% and 15%. For years that we see 15% inflation, if housing price only rise 10%, that’s still well below inflation #.
If inflation stay between 5-7%, which is less than what we saw in the 70s, and if house rise less than inflation at 5%, we’ll see peak price again in ~15 years. So, inflation is a huge wild card.
October 1, 2009 @ 3:05 PM
sdcellar
Back down to
sdcellar
Back down to 9500;)
sdr
October 1, 2009 @ 3:32 PM
sdr– that’s funny. I heard
sdr– that’s funny. I heard the news last night about CIT, and between that and September ending thought the market might take a good whack today. Guess who I thought of next?
Your financial advice ain’t all that bad for a NAR shill! :-O