What has become of the Pigg survivalists?

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Submitted by IForget on March 22, 2010 - 12:37am

Back when I used to read this blog regularly, there were quite a few people preaching the end-of-the-world. What has become of those posters? I wonder if their experiences have mirrored the experiences of the survivalists from Y2K:

1) Desire: the people warning the loudest about Y2K, those hoarding lentils and suggesting the end of the world was coming, really wanted to be right. They not only thought Y2K was going to be a disaster, they wanted it to be a disaster.

2) Paranoia: the people who were so upset about Y2K — the survivalists and others who headed to the mountains and other sparsely-populated areas — didn’t go to the country because they thought the cities would collapse. They thought the rule of law would collapse and there would be Mad Maxian mass civil unrest. And all that unrest would be aimed squarely at them — the arrogant and narcissistic survivalist leaders. They just assumed that all the other folks who stupidly hadn’t been hoarding lentils would want their lentils and would be coming for them, possibly armed. They expected that Y2K would not only delay Social Security checks, it would lead to armed insurrection aimed at they and their lentils. I am not making this up.

3) Disappointment: When the worst didn’t happen and these same folks found themselves in the middle nowhere with half a ton of lentils, they were disappointed the world hadn’t fallen apart after all. Some of those people still haven’t recovered.

http://www.cringely.com/2009/12/

I wonder if all survivalists who prepare for an end which doesn't come have the same experience?

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2010 - 7:14am.

What i want to know is who is IForget?

Submitted by blahblahblah on March 22, 2010 - 7:15am.

Hahaha too funny. The world is a crazy place, and any sane person will come to the conclusion that it can't go on this way much longer. The amazing thing is that although the sane are often correct, they are almost always premature in their assessments.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on March 22, 2010 - 10:24am.

Since the beginning of recorded history, many people have expected, if not hoped, that the "end times" would come during their lifetime. If you read the Bible from a scholarly perspective, the New Testament quite literally expects Jesus to return within the authors' lifetimes. Empires rise and fall over generations, but our human brains have a hard time conceiving more than a 5-10 year time line.

Also there's a very common logical fallacy with regards to probability, in that people tend to grossly overestimate the likelihood of a low probability occurrence. If I told you there's a 5% chance of rain, you might be surprised when it doesn't rain. Low probability events that actually occur are memorable, high probability events are forgettable.

Finally, those who are most dissatisfied with society often overestimate how many like them there are out there. It's natural for human beings to think of their own beliefs as mainstream and moderate, even if they are fringe.

Submitted by ucodegen on March 22, 2010 - 11:05am.

What i want to know is who is IForget?

They don't know.. they forgot. 8-P

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 11:11am.

IForget wrote:
Back when I used to read this blog regularly...

Why are you hiding behind a new screen name?

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2010 - 11:18am.

AN wrote:
IForget wrote:
Back when I used to read this blog regularly...

Why are you hiding behind a new screen name?

No idea...Maybe to post questions that would otherwise be an issue to ask under the old screen name.. I guess it's related to the thread on piggs being foreclosed. Not sure why some folks get a kick at other's failures. Or at least if you are going to ask, do it under your screen name.

Two threads started:
1) "Tell me about the piggs in foreclosure"
2) Look at all those paranoid piggs.

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 11:18am.

flu wrote:
AN wrote:
IForget wrote:
Back when I used to read this blog regularly...

Why are you hiding behind a new screen name?

No idea...Maybe to post questions that would otherwise be an issue to ask under the old screen name.. I guess it's related to the thread on piggs being foreclosed. Not sure why some folks get a kick at other's failures. Or at least if you are going to ask, do it under your screen name.


Maybe it makes them feel more successful? To some, success is all relative anyways. Size complex?

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2010 - 11:28am.

AN wrote:
flu wrote:
AN wrote:
IForget wrote:
Back when I used to read this blog regularly...

Why are you hiding behind a new screen name?

No idea...Maybe to post questions that would otherwise be an issue to ask under the old screen name.. I guess it's related to the thread on piggs being foreclosed. Not sure why some folks get a kick at other's failures. Or at least if you are going to ask, do it under your screen name.


Maybe it makes them feel more successful? To some, success is all relative anyways. Size complex?

Well, I'm not going to pass judgement here. Me thinks said person just doesn't want to ask those tough questions because of what others may think/say.
It's all fun and games (until you really know the person).

Well shoot, if you want 30% off of a good home, just search the legal filings for divorces or obituaries, or better yet ,someone that went through a death and divorce in the family... Whatever.

Submitted by outtamojo on March 22, 2010 - 11:33am.

Who is it among us that seems to get the biggest kick out of other's pain?...

Submitted by davelj on March 22, 2010 - 11:53am.

outtamojo wrote:
Who is it among us that seems to get the biggest kick out of other's pain?...

"It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail." - Gore Vidal

In general terms I enjoy seeing the arrogant and overconfident fail, and the carefully prepared underdog succeed. But that's just me.

Submitted by Aecetia on March 22, 2010 - 11:57am.

The survivalists are out buying more ammo and supplies.

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 12:19pm.

davelj wrote:

"It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail." - Gore Vidal

In general terms I enjoy seeing the arrogant and overconfident fail, and the carefully prepared underdog succeed. But that's just me.

Me too.

Some folks would put me in the overconfident category; so I guess, I might get to enjoy my own medicine one day ;)

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 12:26pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
Since the beginning of recorded history, many people have expected, if not hoped, that the "end times" would come during their lifetime. If you read the Bible from a scholarly perspective, the New Testament quite literally expects Jesus to return within the authors' lifetimes. Empires rise and fall over generations, but our human brains have a hard time conceiving more than a 5-10 year time line.

Very true, poorgradstudent.

There are still millions who still believe that Jesus will return.

Submitted by IForget on March 22, 2010 - 12:29pm.

It's not so much that I want to see people fail, I'm just interested in the psychology behind people's decisions. Why would a formerly bearish pigg decide to buy? Do all survivalists go through the same basic experiences? Were other middle-aged guys as heavily influenced by the Fall Guy and Magnum P.I. as I was?

Submitted by Arraya on March 22, 2010 - 12:57pm.

History is littered with fallen civilizations as archeologists can show. The two best scholars regarding studying this are Jared Diamond who wrote "Collapse" and Joe Tainter, who wrote "The Collapse of Complex Societies". Diamond's book was more a focus on sociological problems and Tainter was more a focus on technical ones.

At this point we are doing just about everything wrong a society can do. IMO, we are in late stage collapse now. It's like we have lockjaw of the brain or something. Diamond pointed out probably the most profound observation of societies that avoided catastrophe. They made an acknowledgement that certain cherished core values were no longer helping them but were the cause of their problems. We have quite a bit more adversity before we do that, but it will come.

Jared Diamond talks about the signs that collapse is near, and how — if we see it in time — we can prevent it.

Note that he mentions the conflict of interests — when Elites “insulate themselves from the consequences of their decisions, advancing their own short term interests against the interests of overall society.”

Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. Tainter, 1988, p214

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 1:01pm.

IForget wrote:
Why would a formerly bearish pigg decide to buy?

Nagging wife. Peer pressure to conform. Self doubt because every one else is doing it.

Clearly if he's in foreclosure now, he didn't have wherewithal to hold long term. He screwed himself.

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 1:07pm.

1) Desire: the people warning the loudest about Y2K, those hoarding lentils and suggesting the end of the world was coming, really wanted to be right. They not only thought Y2K was going to be a disaster, they wanted it to be a disaster.

It's funny that the Y2K scare was only a fire fanned by the business interests who wanted to sell more computers, IT services and insurance.

Nothing to do with impending disaster.

The end-of-the-world survivalists certainly got taken by that one.

Submitted by CBad on March 22, 2010 - 1:30pm.

What became of those posters? They survived. Good for them.

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 1:34pm.

davelj wrote:

"It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail." - Gore Vidal

In general terms I enjoy seeing the arrogant and overconfident fail, and the carefully prepared underdog succeed. But that's just me.


confidence to one person is arrogant to another. I guess we all are arrogant and overconfident to someone.

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 1:36pm.

briansd1 wrote:
IForget wrote:
Why would a formerly bearish pigg decide to buy?

Nagging wife. Peer pressure to conform. Self doubt because every one else is doing it.

Clearly if he's in foreclosure now, he didn't have wherewithal to hold long term. He screwed himself.


Found a house that s/he want at the price that s/he likes.

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 1:40pm.

AN wrote:

Found a house that s/he want at the price that s/he likes.

But now in foreclosure... So the house that she likes was not at the price that they could afford.

I like lots of houses that don't fit my pocketbook.

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 1:49pm.

briansd1 wrote:
AN wrote:

Found a house that s/he want at the price that s/he likes.

But now in foreclosure... So the house that she likes was not at the price that they could afford.

I like lots of houses that don't fit my pocketbook.


Well, then the price she likes is not the same price her pocketbook likes. So she has a nagging wife too? Interesting revelation. Are all formerly bearish Pigg a female with a nagging wife?

Submitted by briansd1 on March 22, 2010 - 2:09pm.

AN, seems to me that a bearish Pigg would not buy unless he could afford the house and had wherewithal to hold it long term.

Certainly, he had the intelligence to understand the economics of house buying; but he didn't have the fortitude to stand firm.

Obviously he succumbed to external pressures to buy. Perhaps a nagging wife?

Submitted by an on March 22, 2010 - 2:11pm.

briansd1 wrote:
AN, seems to me that a bearish Pigg would not buy unless he could afford the house and had wherewithal to hold it long term.

Certainly, he had the intelligence to understand the economics of house buying; but he didn't have the fortitude to stand firm.

Obviously he succumbed to external pressures to buy. Perhaps a nagging wife?


He obviously wasn't bearish enough to succumb to external pressure in 2007.

Submitted by Hobie on March 22, 2010 - 2:12pm.

I'm not an 'end of the worlder' following J. Diamond to the end.

I have read Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond. I must say he has some very interesting thoughts as to why wars were won, civilizations rise and fall based on geographic locations related to food supply, spread of disease, etc. contrasted to superior armies and other favorable factors.

Can't speak to his other books though.

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