Urban Metro Suburban monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:59pm

UPDATE: While running numbers on 10/13/20 it became obvious this was two very different markets and should be tracked differently. Im pulling out 92103 and sticking with 92104 and 92116. Trying tog et something more representative of whats actually going on down there. Left orginal post below for integrity of thread

Not sure this name will make sense but these higher end, close in zips just east of Downtown. I included 92103 (Mission Hills and Hillcrest), 92104 (North Park) and 92116 (Normal Heights). University Heights kinda cross zips (92103 and 92116).

I left out 92102 (South Park, Golden Hill etc) and 92105 (City Heights etc) as they just felt more diverse and less gentrified. Both have some really nice sections and some that have a long way to go. Apologies if anyone is interested in those but I think they would be better carved out and viewed separately. Both zips span a wider demographic range than the other 3 zips.

Again only looking at detached and excluding new construction

As an aside while Im quite familiar with these areas I have never tracked them and have no idea where this will go. I guess that makes it even more interesting for me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 19, 2020 - 2:18pm.

Late Summer and the market should be snoozing here too though Id expect less so than suburbia.

New listings 19

New Pendings 23

Thats -4 a sign that this is also a strong market but too soon to say for me.

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 6. Sellers got the hot market memo here also.

Submitted by gzz on August 13, 2020 - 8:57am.

Are you counting the $100 price reductions that seem pretty common?

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 13, 2020 - 10:22am.

Any reduction but those aren't that common. Usually some joker doing it to get on the Hot Sheet many agents use daily to follow their primary markets. As long as I stay consistent in approach the trend should be meaningful

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 13, 2020 - 1:21pm.

I like having these as two forum threads that you keep updating... easier to follow that way. Thanks for your efforts!

(Hope to update my #s this weekend)

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 13, 2020 - 2:08pm.

My pleasure and open to others. I'm happy to see the conversing here return to real estate and investing. Hoping to encourage that to continue

Submitted by gzz on August 14, 2020 - 5:14pm.

I’d say the past few months half the price reductions I’ve seen have been these “fake ones.” I’m not too concerned, probably at some point MLS software will be updated to stop promoting price reductions of less than 0.1%.

There’s also the infamous “raise price by $5,000, then weekly $1000 price cuts, then re-raise $5,000.”

With inventory so low, seems unnecessary to do anything to stand out from the crowd.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 19, 2020 - 2:25pm.

Back to school season. Wonder what the impact if any will be down here?

New listings 18

New Pendings 14

Thats +4 so added some inventory. Hope to see a trend emerge over time.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 8.

Total houses for sale 82.

That seems more reasonable and I think I made a mistake running the count last week. I took that erroneus data off the prior update

Here;s some additional observations. Dettached market seems to start around 700K currently. Most under that is a tear down or needs major reno. Saw a house with a tenant thats been there for 40 years. Thats gotta be some kind of record. About 70% of inventory is over $1M. Not much in the way of affordable detached inventory here.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 25, 2020 - 9:47pm.

Kids are back to school.

New listings 15

New Pendings 20

Thats -5 so lost some inventory.

Closed sales at 10

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale 78.

Not much inventory. Very little affordable

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 10:17am.

Heading into Labor Day!

New listings 18

New Pendings 26

Thats -8 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 14 likely boosted by end of month

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 72.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable

Submitted by gzz on September 2, 2020 - 10:47am.

92107 (Ocean Beach/Sunset Cliffs/Point Loma Heights):

36 sales in August, versus inventory of 27. So 0.75 month inventory.

Six of the 22 SFH sales were for 1.5M+, I've never seen the high end move so quickly.

Any parts of San Diego that right now with 1.0+ month inventory? Probably just places with a lot of new construction: so downtown, new suburbs, and zips with recently completed large infill projects.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 9, 2020 - 1:19pm.

New listings 13 lowest since Ive been tracking

New Pendings 18 nice drop from last week

Thats -5 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 17 highest since I started tracking.

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 68.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable. Market starts around $650K for a 2/1 around 600 sq ft. Anything less is likely a teardown. Median is $1.25M so very little low end inventory here either

Submitted by gzz on September 9, 2020 - 4:15pm.

Looking at Rich’s charts, last time months of inventory was under 2 for a while was 2013, prices flew almost straight up, +21% in Dec 2013 over Dec 2012.

Such a sudden increase in prices did bring out some (poorly timed!) sellers.

Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory, only thing holding us back are the huge downpayments needed and conforming loan limits not rising as fast as prices.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 9, 2020 - 4:23pm.

We already have big price increases. Remember our earlier in the year predictions? I think you were 3% and I was 5 to 10%. Well the 5% is already well in the rear view mirror

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 9, 2020 - 4:52pm.

gzz wrote:

Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory,

These aren't two independent things... the low rates are causing the low inventory.

But yeah as sdr says, prices are rising fast... pr/sqft for single family homes was up 5% last month. (charts soon). That's a noisy figure but 5% is really high.

Submitted by gzz on September 9, 2020 - 5:22pm.

My Jan 2020 pre-covid prediction was +8% for 2020.

https://www.piggington.com/2019_price_ch...

The current stock and RE bull starting from the covid lows caught me completely by surprise. We have a combination flight to safety of US bonds precious metals and residential RE and flight to garbage by dumb retail momo investors. I can’t think of anything like it. Lots of unsexy stocks that sit between getting left behind.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 10, 2020 - 11:05am.

Gotcha and may have confused you with someone else. Good call

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 15, 2020 - 5:25pm.

Market sure seems a lot more balanced and sane down here.

New listings 18 back to average

New Pendings 15 thats another drop

Thats +3 for inventory.

Closed sales at 19 another new high since I started tracking.

Price reductions at 11.

Total houses for sale 72.

Still feels like limited inventory. Very little new inventory under $1M.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 21, 2020 - 12:18pm.

Just a heads up. I'll do an update tomorrow but it will likely be a mess. They switched MLS platform and we had to access to update it since noon on Wednesday. It just re-opened but I think there will be some lag and glitches so data could be wacky this week and possibly next week as local realtors play catch up. Should be back to normal in a couple weeks

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 22, 2020 - 1:40pm.

No update the transition is too glitchy and I cant get the data Ive been running. if I search for all new listings the last 7 days I get every listing in history of the database as they have all been added to the database in the last few days. We can get back to normal reporting next week.

Until then I'll report active SFR inventory at 69 which is down from last week but still subject to the new system.

There were 8 brand new listings entered here in last 2 days but only 5 marked pending. The whole transition has thrown us all for a loop so not much value in the last week of data anyway.

Best to consider inventory slightly down this week here

Submitted by gzz on September 29, 2020 - 1:15pm.

There's been more new listings than normal the past 10 days in 92107, and they are priced well above 2019 comps.

Nice to see markets work like they should: demand goes up, prices rise, higher prices attract more sellers.

After reading this listing, I want to tell agents: it's OK to call a place a tear-down, not a "fixer"

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-200046551-4...

Or maybe all that stuff about it being a "fixer" is to let people get a normal conforming mortgage?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 29, 2020 - 3:19pm.

i like it as is

Submitted by gzz on September 30, 2020 - 11:35am.

You're a man of simple tastes.

No bathroom countertop, at all, and the 25+ holes in the living room floor tell me: knock it down.

It probably has a ton of old growth redwood framing lumber worth salvaging.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 30, 2020 - 11:39am.

I wouldnt read anything into listing activity. Its been a mess the last week and we should see some catch up. You may see a surge of listings this week due to that. Id call it a trend if it keeps going for a couple weeks. I couldnt even log in yesterday. MLS transition to new platform is still struggling to get it right. Sorry no update this week. Not that Id put credence in it but I could not even pull it yesterday.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 6, 2020 - 12:42pm.

Going to try to get this rolling again. the transition to the new platform has been very glitchy and I dont completely trust the data yet but we are close

New listings 23 more than we have been seeing but could be catching up from MLS transition. Too soon to read anything into that

New Pendings 19

Thats +4 for inventory.

Closed sales at 19 another strong number but could be catch up. Will know better in a month

Price reductions at 6.

Total houses for sale 76.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 14, 2020 - 1:18pm.

Data getting better but I noticed something that necessitates a change. Most of the new inventory and existing inventory is well over $1M in 92103. Most of the pendings are coming in the other two zips which are more affordable. The reasoning behind this thread was to track an affordable metro sfr market. Im gonna start just looking at North Park and Normal Heights as it will be far more useful. You''ll see why...

New listings 8 which isnt many. Lets see how it goes going forward

New Pendings 16 lots of demand

Thats -8 for inventory.

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale 29. Thats not many for two densely populated zips though they do have more multi family

Submitted by gzz on October 14, 2020 - 6:06pm.

Hillcrest sure does have a lot of very high end condos.

It is a lovely area, but I don't feel like it will appreciate much compared to other areas, mainly because current prices are high and infill development is high for an older area.

I have a friend who owns a triplex there. He lived in the largest unit and enjoyed entertaining until he had another baby and wanted a place with a bigger yard and not 3 floors.

In many ways it is the single most walk-friendly California neighborhood outside of San Francisco.

Sure there are denser area than Hillcrest, but it terms of the ease of actually getting out and walking places, I think Hillcrest by a small margin beats Santa Monica and Downtown LA and SD because traffic is so limited and the blocks are small and human scale.

Maybe a few parts of the West Side of LA and areas right outside of downtown like Echo Park can compare.

Submitted by gzz on October 20, 2020 - 10:12am.

92107 Supply Update

0.90 month supply overall.

including only the sub-$2 million market, supply is 0.59 months.

About 2-3 weeks ago there was a little surge of new listings, but they sold very quickly, and have not been replaced by further new listings.

Our sister zip 92106 (most of Point Loma) had a very steady inventory level between 49 and 60 between April and late September. Now it is 39.

I was not able to find anything new about San Diego rents, but here's a thread with up to date comments from some bay area landlords:

http://socketsite.com/archives/2020/10/r...

Here's an article saying LA is down, the IE is up, but both by fairly small amounts.

https://www.livabl.com/2020/10/la-rents-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 20, 2020 - 8:20pm.

Week 2 looking at NP and NH

New listings 11 which is better than last week

New Pendings 12 more than new listings but less than last week

Thats -1 for inventory.

Closed sales at 8

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale 34.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 27, 2020 - 2:11pm.

Week 2 looking at NP and NH

New listings 10 about the same as last week

New Pendings 10 about the same as last week

Thats 0 for inventory.

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale 31.

Just chugging along here in a tight market

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 4, 2020 - 11:18am.

Election Update: Week 3 looking at NP and NH

New listings 10 about the same as last week

New Pendings 10 about the same as last week

Thats 0 for inventory.

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 6.

Total houses for sale 33.

Just chugging along here in a tight market. I did notice a bunch of nicer than typical homes come on the market which will be nice for some buyers

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