Urban Metro Suburban monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:59pm

Not sure this name will make sense but these higher end, close in zips just east of Downtown. I included 92103 (Mission Hills and Hillcrest), 92104 (North Park) and 92116 (Normal Heights). University Heights kinda cross zips (92103 and 92116).

I left out 92102 (South Park, Golden Hill etc) and 92105 (City Heights etc) as they just felt more diverse and less gentrified. Both have some really nice sections and some that have a long way to go. Apologies if anyone is interested in those but I think they would be better carved out and viewed separately. Both zips span a wider demographic range than the other 3 zips.

Again only looking at detached and excluding new construction

As an aside while Im quite familiar with these areas I have never tracked them and have no idea where this will go. I guess that makes it even more interesting for me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 19, 2020 - 2:18pm.

Late Summer and the market should be snoozing here too though Id expect less so than suburbia.

New listings 19

New Pendings 23

Thats -4 a sign that this is also a strong market but too soon to say for me.

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 6. Sellers got the hot market memo here also.

Submitted by gzz on August 13, 2020 - 8:57am.

Are you counting the $100 price reductions that seem pretty common?

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 13, 2020 - 10:22am.

Any reduction but those aren't that common. Usually some joker doing it to get on the Hot Sheet many agents use daily to follow their primary markets. As long as I stay consistent in approach the trend should be meaningful

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 13, 2020 - 1:21pm.

I like having these as two forum threads that you keep updating... easier to follow that way. Thanks for your efforts!

(Hope to update my #s this weekend)

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 13, 2020 - 2:08pm.

My pleasure and open to others. I'm happy to see the conversing here return to real estate and investing. Hoping to encourage that to continue

Submitted by gzz on August 14, 2020 - 5:14pm.

I’d say the past few months half the price reductions I’ve seen have been these “fake ones.” I’m not too concerned, probably at some point MLS software will be updated to stop promoting price reductions of less than 0.1%.

There’s also the infamous “raise price by $5,000, then weekly $1000 price cuts, then re-raise $5,000.”

With inventory so low, seems unnecessary to do anything to stand out from the crowd.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 19, 2020 - 2:25pm.

Back to school season. Wonder what the impact if any will be down here?

New listings 18

New Pendings 14

Thats +4 so added some inventory. Hope to see a trend emerge over time.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 8.

Total houses for sale 82.

That seems more reasonable and I think I made a mistake running the count last week. I took that erroneus data off the prior update

Here;s some additional observations. Dettached market seems to start around 700K currently. Most under that is a tear down or needs major reno. Saw a house with a tenant thats been there for 40 years. Thats gotta be some kind of record. About 70% of inventory is over $1M. Not much in the way of affordable detached inventory here.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 25, 2020 - 9:47pm.

Kids are back to school.

New listings 15

New Pendings 20

Thats -5 so lost some inventory.

Closed sales at 10

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale 78.

Not much inventory. Very little affordable

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 10:17am.

Heading into Labor Day!

New listings 18

New Pendings 26

Thats -8 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 14 likely boosted by end of month

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 72.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable

Submitted by gzz on September 2, 2020 - 10:47am.

92107 (Ocean Beach/Sunset Cliffs/Point Loma Heights):

36 sales in August, versus inventory of 27. So 0.75 month inventory.

Six of the 22 SFH sales were for 1.5M+, I've never seen the high end move so quickly.

Any parts of San Diego that right now with 1.0+ month inventory? Probably just places with a lot of new construction: so downtown, new suburbs, and zips with recently completed large infill projects.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 9, 2020 - 1:19pm.

New listings 13 lowest since Ive been tracking

New Pendings 18 nice drop from last week

Thats -5 so lost some more inventory.

Closed sales at 17 highest since I started tracking.

Price reductions at 10.

Total houses for sale 68.

Even less inventory. Very little affordable. Market starts around $650K for a 2/1 around 600 sq ft. Anything less is likely a teardown. Median is $1.25M so very little low end inventory here either

Submitted by gzz on September 9, 2020 - 4:15pm.

Looking at Rich’s charts, last time months of inventory was under 2 for a while was 2013, prices flew almost straight up, +21% in Dec 2013 over Dec 2012.

Such a sudden increase in prices did bring out some (poorly timed!) sellers.

Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory, only thing holding us back are the huge downpayments needed and conforming loan limits not rising as fast as prices.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 9, 2020 - 4:23pm.

We already have big price increases. Remember our earlier in the year predictions? I think you were 3% and I was 5 to 10%. Well the 5% is already well in the rear view mirror

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 9, 2020 - 4:52pm.

gzz wrote:

Now we have even lower rates, even lower inventory,

These aren't two independent things... the low rates are causing the low inventory.

But yeah as sdr says, prices are rising fast... pr/sqft for single family homes was up 5% last month. (charts soon). That's a noisy figure but 5% is really high.

Submitted by gzz on September 9, 2020 - 5:22pm.

My Jan 2020 pre-covid prediction was +8% for 2020.

https://www.piggington.com/2019_price_ch...

The current stock and RE bull starting from the covid lows caught me completely by surprise. We have a combination flight to safety of US bonds precious metals and residential RE and flight to garbage by dumb retail momo investors. I can’t think of anything like it. Lots of unsexy stocks that sit between getting left behind.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 10, 2020 - 11:05am.

Gotcha and may have confused you with someone else. Good call

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 15, 2020 - 5:25pm.

Market sure seems a lot more balanced and sane down here.

New listings 18 back to average

New Pendings 15 thats another drop

Thats +3 for inventory.

Closed sales at 19 another new high since I started tracking.

Price reductions at 11.

Total houses for sale 72.

Still feels like limited inventory. Very little new inventory under $1M.

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