UCSD econ roundtable (drought/infrastructure)

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Submitted by phaster on April 18, 2016 - 10:03pm

about a week ago was invited to a UCSD econ roundtable (figured it was worth attending because if nothing else I'd get a free breakfast), the topic was about water or the lack thereof

http://economics.ucsd.edu/roundtable/201...

its a subject I've been following for a while (since my undergrad days as a matter of fact)

lots of the people there were business types wanting to find out more about the three billion CapEx spent on the diversity of storage and supply of water (in the region)

after the speakers presentation there was a Q&A session

my question to the speaker was, given in the past 1200 years the western region of the USA has had two mega drought(s), how prepaired are we AND the short answer is we are not!

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20...

noticed a few dropped jaws on peoples faces (in the audience) when I asked my questions and mentioned its not unheard of for the region to have drought event(s) that last a hundred years...

so wondering if anyone else here knows that the region around California has a long history of drought(s) and that the period around the 1910's - 1920's (when the treaty of the colorado "river" compact was studied/signed) was an abnormally wet period (WRT the long term historical "climate" record)

"Water scarcity is a growing problem, caused by everything from man-made climate change to poor governance."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIlBBWSQMds

http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows...

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-na...

"...a reduction of just 10 percent of water from the Colorado River would cost billions of dollars and millions of jobs...Southern California would see a 55 percent to 60 percent drop in economic activity if the Colorado River ran out of water."

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2015/jan/20/val...

Submitted by phaster on May 3, 2016 - 4:47pm.

Extra! Extra! Read All About It!

SANDIEGOUNIONTRIB.COM wrote:

State taking greater control over groundwater

Amid the state’s historic drought, reliance on groundwater has skyrocketed. It now accounts for roughly 60 percent of all human water use in the state, up from about 38 percent in years with normal precipitation, according to the Department of Water Resources.

In some areas, overpumping has caused land to sink at a rate of more than a foot a year. This can cause millions in damages to homes, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure like irrigation canals.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU wrote:

Estimated Population in Drought Affected Areas: 34,225,100

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/State...

lastly just a personal observation,... the "typical" literacy/interest of issues that truly affect the systems wellbeing (like the drought and unfunded public pensions) by the majority of politicians and the majority of the public, is...

(cue the crickets...)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Re72di5phM0

Submitted by creechrr on May 3, 2016 - 5:35pm.

I'm greatly concerned about the situation but, I'm not sure what else I can do. We've done all we can to reduce water usage around the house. The lawns; front and rear are gone. The remaining plants are on a drip system.

Unfortunately, I rarely find anyone that even acknowledges that there is a drought. The few that understand there is a problem don't seem to do anything positive for the situation. Most seem to believe that it's all a management problem and there will always be more water.

If follow global news events this isn't a local problem at all. No where to run.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 4, 2016 - 5:23am.

I was just at Lake Powell, they are expecting to be at 70% capacity from the Colorado higher than normal snowpack by the end of summer.

I Imagine Lake mead will be about the same by the end of summer.

Submitted by EconProf on May 4, 2016 - 7:50pm.

CA sends lots of fresh water out to the Pacific in order to save the endangered four-inch long Delta Smelt. That water could go to people if we chose to let the Delta Smelt die a natural death and disappear (like many other species do regularly).

Submitted by phaster on May 14, 2016 - 8:27am.

EconProf wrote:
CA sends lots of fresh water out to the Pacific in order to save the endangered four-inch long Delta Smelt. That water could go to people if we chose to let the Delta Smelt die a natural death and disappear (like many other species do regularly).

huh, don't economist study data and statistics in order to spot trends?

if we expand the DATA set to natural AND un-natural death(s) of organisms and organized collectives, history shows...

saber tooth tiger
wooly mammoth
original people/society on easter island
flightless dodo

so what's next?

the delta smelt??

the republican party???

NEXT we take at face value the standard "dogma" of economist which is, markets work!

AND if we apply the standard prospectus DISCLAIMER (which describe market returns)... Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results!

as a scientist looking at the all the DATA, seems the inescapable bottom line logic is...

as for timeframe

creechrr wrote:

... Most seem to believe that it's all a management problem and there will always be more water.

with current economic, environmental and political mis-management combined with public apathy/ADD/ADHD toward issues that could crash the system, the more likely scenario for "the end" seems to be much sooner rather than much later

just sayin'

Submitted by svelte on May 15, 2016 - 7:24pm.

phaster wrote:

so wondering if anyone else here knows that the region around California has a long history of drought(s) and that the period around the 1910's - 1920's (when the treaty of the colorado "river" compact was studied/signed) was an abnormally wet period (WRT the long term historical "climate" record)

Yes and I have mentioned this to people often. They look at me like I'm from Mars and must be saying that because I'm an ultra-conservative looking to deny man-made global warming.

But what you say is exactly right - and the last 100 years have been abnormally wet, actually, so it makes sense that things are going to return to normal.

Finally - there is not water shortage. 71% of the earth's surface is covered with water, for Christ's sake. What is becoming more scarce is cheap access to potable water. We could take water from that ocean to our heart's content - as long as we are willing to pay for desalinization.

Submitted by an on May 15, 2016 - 10:48pm.

svelte wrote:
phaster wrote:

so wondering if anyone else here knows that the region around California has a long history of drought(s) and that the period around the 1910's - 1920's (when the treaty of the colorado "river" compact was studied/signed) was an abnormally wet period (WRT the long term historical "climate" record)

Yes and I have mentioned this to people often. They look at me like I'm from Mars and must be saying that because I'm an ultra-conservative looking to deny man-made global warming.

But what you say is exactly right - and the last 100 years have been abnormally wet, actually, so it makes sense that things are going to return to normal.

Finally - there is not water shortage. 71% of the earth's surface is covered with water, for Christ's sake. What is becoming more scarce is cheap access to potable water. We could take water from that ocean to our heart's content - as long as we are willing to pay for desalinization.

I never understand the logic of water shortage either. People who think so should just look at their water bill vs their gas bill. We can easily solve our water "problem" buy building 100 desalination plants like the one in Carlsbad. Couple that with toilet to tap and rain water run off and you'll have our water "problem" solved. I would totally pay 2-5x more than I'm paying today for water. We can also build a water pipeline from Alaska to CA and that would help solve our water "problem" as well.

Submitted by phaster on May 20, 2016 - 5:49pm.

AN wrote:
I never understand the logic of water shortage either. People who think so should just look at their water bill vs their gas bill. We can easily solve our water "problem" buy building 100 desalination plants like the one in Carlsbad. Couple that with toilet to tap and rain water run off and you'll have our water "problem" solved. I would totally pay 2-5x more than I'm paying today for water. We can also build a water pipeline from Alaska to CA and that would help solve our water "problem" as well.

a water pipeline from alaska to california makes as much logical (cost/benefit) sense as trump's rhetoric to build a big beautiful wall...

TRUMP wrote:

“When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.”

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mythical...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vU8dCYocuyI

if diminished precipitation trends continue, the water shortfall will become very apparent (not just to farmers in the San Joaquin Valley), so desperate times might nudge the idea of a water pipeline to gain wide spread public support in urban areas, at which point pretty sure there would be a vocal group of taxpayers that would want to buy the concrete and steel from the lowest cost producer

http://www.globalcement.com/news/item/45...

http://www.scmp.com/business/article/192...

FYI this would mean more jobs and pollution created in china (NOTE pollution does not just stay in one region)

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/05/09/...

but even before a project enters the design stage, we first need to consider all the EIRs (Environmental Impact Reports), for a route that crosses an internation border and two other states before delivering much needed water to CA

NEXT we would then need to also take into account the all on going energy requirements to pump the water because its a known fact that “nearly a fifth of all the power generated in California — as well as huge quantities of natural gas and diesel fuel consumed in the state — goes into water-related uses”

http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2012/...

so from these aspects alone, I'd say its a NO GO to even start the multi-year EIR process for a water pipeline

BUT lets say, to hell w/ the EIRs lets just pull out the wallet and pay for the water pipeline and be done with it!

little problem, which is the wallet is empty except for maxed out credit cards AND there is basically NO MONEY saved up in the bank!!

get another credit card then charge it you say (which is the business as usual approach), uhhhhhhhh problem there is CREDIT (i.e. who has it to give and is credit worthy themselves)

Looking at the real world, as it stands this state is on the hook to the federal government for various items like...

www.sacbee.com wrote:

California still owes feds $8 billion for unemployment insurance

California borrowed $10 billion from the federal government to shore up its recession-battered Unemployment Insurance Fund. Even though the state’s economy is now booming, it still owes the feds about $8 billion.

California is paying interest on the loan, an estimated $174.5 million this year, according to a new report from the state Employment Development Department, and the balance is shrinking only because in lieu of direct payments, the Department of Labor has raised taxes on employers.

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-gove...

no problem since this forum is based in SD city/county why not build more desalination plants (for locals use ONLY) like the one in Carlsbad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeKNLYSJjik

for the population of SD city/county a conservative estimate would require 15 to 20 times the existing capacity (of Carlsbad) to meet the local demand (along with some head room for future growth) and given the one billion dollar cost (of the brand new Carlsbad setup), that would mean we would need around 20+ billion in today's dollars

any ideas how a BIG TICKET ITEM like desalination plants, gets paid for?? when idiots (in charge) can't even grasp middle school math which is the key to understanding the existing mis-managed pension problem, AND is a reported order of magnitude less in cost

phaster wrote:

now back to the serious topic at hand since this is an economics message board where it clearly states at the bottom of the page... In God we trust. Everyone Else Bring Data!

BUT before looking at data, it might be useful to recall lessons taught in middle school, specifically the topic about "compound interest" and basic money management skills (which is key to surviving/thriving day to day in the modern day world)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evDHk7g8SOM

if you have a mortgage, then perhaps you might have heard that you can pay off a loan much faster, by "annually" making an extra -- 13th -- mortgage payment,... what an extra mortgage payment does is directly reduces the principal balance on the loan by the amount of the payment (and the observed effect is exponentially decreasing the payback period)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vF0sZEDFA5I

NOW lets (re)examine ACTUAL "historic" published documents/text (i.e. Data!)

City pensioners get '13th check' bonus

More than $6.1 million has been distributed to retired San Diego city employees in the form of a "13th check" — beyond their usual 12 monthly payments — making this year's holiday bonus the largest such payout in the history of the three-decade-old practice.

But it's become a source of conflict as the city's pension system faces a $2 billion shortfall in promised payments, which remains a taxpayer burden and has led to budget crises in the past at City Hall.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

Though SDCERS investments were earning well above the 8 percent rate of return estimated by the system actuaries, under normal conditions investments surpluses are required to make up for below-average returns in other years to achieve the average rate of return. Therefore, unless the actuaries' estimates are grossly incorrect, in the long run true "surplus earnings" are impossible. The use of surplus earnings for the purposes other than maintaining the pension system, such as to expand existing benefits should be viewed as a loan from the system THAT WILL REQUIRE REPAYMENT IN THE FUTURE.

The concept of surplus earnings is easily misunderstood, so sometimes these earnings are used inappropriately.

page 286

Handbook of Frauds, Scams, and Swindles: Failures of Ethics in Leadership edited by Serge Matulich, David M. Currie

https://books.google.com/books?id=VLxvUV...

anyone able to grasp the power/implications of "compound interest" then reading the published reports should be very disturbed at the mis-management/incompetence/corruption since the PRIMARY CAUSE as to why the "magnitude" of the SD public pension "unfunded" problem exists is due to a simple math concept that was suppose to be learned in middle school...

as-reported for the past three decades the "surplus earnings" (aka 13th payment) was diverted to Gubment-Pensioner(s) every holiday season INSTEAD OF being used for the original goal of trying to make sure the long term average return of the portfolio was achieved (about about 8% as per actuaries' design-estimates)

if anyone is able to think critically about "compound interest" then they will see that making an annual extra mortgage payment and making an extra payment to Gubment-Pensioner(s) every holiday are two side of the same coin; one side allows a mortgage debt to be paid "down" much sooner, the other side makes the debt to pile "up" exponentially over decades!

(bearishgurl) since you have taken the blue pill - its apparent you believe whatever you want to believe!

for all other(s) who dared take the red pill, the BOTTOM LINE seems to be as long as the "surplus earnings" (aka 13th payment) is siphoned off every holiday season for Gubment-Pensioner(s) INSTEAD OF being used to maintain the pension system designed target return rate, the SD pension system as currently structured/operated AND using nothing more than "honest" common sense and middle school math tells us, that the un-funded DEBT issue will basically ALWAYS grow!

http://www.doughroller.net/investing/power-of-compounding-interest/

so is it realistic to believe politicians/lawyers have the brains to understand let alone fix the water infrastructure that needs to be built to address the various issues related to the on going drought, given these same self-absorbed corrupt idiots cannot even solve much smaller financial operations and mis-management practice issues???

www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com wrote:

State Auditor blasts Bar Association

State Auditor Elaine Howle has more than a few bones to pick with the State Bar of California's financial operations and management practices.

In a scathing report, Ms. Howle says the State Bar’s financial reports have contained errors and lacked transparency, limiting the ability of stakeholders to fully understand its financial operations and the Legislature's ability to set appropriate State Bar fees.

http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.co...

just sayin' short term thinking along with business as usual politics has created a "delusional idiocracy" system, dominated by simple minded affirmations or political slogans like "make america great again" which cannot explain how to solve problems that are based on a complex and corrupt reality...

bottom line... is it no wonder by not understanding the big picture problem (i.e. economic/scientific data) and doing the same things over and over again and expecting issues to get better, that what is actually happening is more akin to jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire!

Submitted by an on May 20, 2016 - 11:49pm.

phaster, all I see from you is rants. I never said anything about doing the same thing over ad over again and expecting better result. I actually stated solutions. What are your solutions?

Where did you get $20B desalination plant needed for SD come from? The Carlsbad plant supposed to provide 7-15% of our water need. So we only need ~10 of those. That's assuming we do nothing else. How about water recycling (toilet to tap)? How about brown water system? How about improve storm water run off and build more dams for storage? We have been haven't water problem for years and have you seen most of CA doing anything?

Whether you think the politician is capable of fixing the problem or not is irrelevant, since they have a monopoly. for our sake, I hope they get their act together and fix the problem. If we can have Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA, I'm pretty sure we can fix the water problem.

And removing all the lawn isn't going to solve the problem, unless you want to also kick out 1/2 of the Californian too.

Submitted by phaster on May 21, 2016 - 7:17am.

AN wrote:
phaster, all I see from you is rants. I never said anything about doing the same thing over ad over again and expecting better result. I actually stated solutions. What are your solutions?

Where did you get $20B desalination plant needed for SD come from? The Carlsbad plant supposed to provide 7-15% of our water need. So we only need ~10 of those. That's assuming we do nothing else. How about water recycling (toilet to tap)? How about brown water system? How about improve storm water run off and build more dams for storage? We have been haven't water problem for years and have you seen most of CA doing anything?

Whether you think the politician is capable of fixing the problem or not is irrelevant, since they have a monopoly. for our sake, I hope they get their act together and fix the problem. If we can have Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA, I'm pretty sure we can fix the water problem.

And removing all the lawn isn't going to solve the problem, unless you want to also kick out 1/2 of the Californian too.

KPBS wrote:

(Drinking Water Starts Flowing From Carlsbad Desalination Plant)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeKNLYSJjik

KPBS report @ 0:04
"the billion dollar project..."

KPBS report @ 0:47
"this facility will produce 7 to 10 percent of the regions water enough for 400,000 house holds..."

KPBS report @ 2:42
"at the same time poseidon is throwing its arms up in victory claiming to provide up to 10 percent of our regional water needs..."

knowing the history of failed desalination plant projects, the conservative risk analysis approach is to use the lowest published figure of seven percent (and IMHO that might be still too "optimistic"), never the less:

(20 "similar size Carlsbad plants")(7%) = 140 % "of reported current water use"

now re-read exactly what was stated in my so-called "rant"...

"for the population of SD city/county a conservative estimate would require 15 to 20 times the existing capacity (of Carlsbad) to meet the local demand (along with some head room for future growth) and given the one billion dollar cost (of the brand new Carlsbad setup), that would mean we would need around 20+ billion in today's dollars"

QED

FYI the price comparison of the number of Carlsbad desalination plant(s) needed vs. the reported unfunded public pension, was stated to illustrate not only the magnitude of money @ economic risk, but also to point out the long history of various mis-management public resource(s) that have the potential to crash the system

what you might find surprising is the actual data showing the dominance of AG WATER USE vs. URBAN WATER USE

basically lawns like too many ag crops being cultivated (for the export market), in the grand scheme of things is a shit for brains design selection and looking at resource trends, pretty sure suburban lawns w/ in a decade are going to join the list of the...

saber tooth tiger
wooly mammoth
original people/society on easter island
flightless dodo

as for solutions to the drought, sadly don't see any that are cost effective or politically palatable THEREFORE most likely outcome is, one way or another society will have to adjust to a limited resource world (i.e there will be a lower standard of living for most and just like the 2007 sub-prime crisis, fall out from the "drought" is going to take the general public by surprise!)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 21, 2016 - 7:31am.

A nice water related day trip is DIAMOND VALLEY RESERVOIR by Hemet.

There's a,21 mile trail circling the largest freshwater reservoir in southern California. It's unusually gorgeous.

Check it out while there's still water. Bring a bike or rent one there.

Submitted by an on May 21, 2016 - 8:28am.

phaster, again, you're assuming that desalination as the only source of water. Toilet to tap was estimated to provide ~30% of our water need. So, it's not necessary to have desalination as the only solution. Then there's the improvement of storm water run off so that the rain we do get doesn't go into the ocean. Then build a lot more storage so that when we have wet years, we can bank those water for the dry years. We can also not dump a big chunk of fresh water to save the damn smelt. They can go the way of the flightless dodo too.

However, even if we have to build 20 more desalination, why not? If we can spend almost $100B on the damn bullet train, I'm sure we can spend $200B on desalination plants. As I stated, I wouldn't mind paying 5X more water, if that mean we can make the water police go the way of the dodo bird.

Your "solution" isn't really solution at all. Your "solution" is to do nothing at all. Which is what you were railing against. Also, why do we have to restrict ourselves to solution that can provide us with cheap water instead of just providing us water?

Submitted by no_such_reality on May 21, 2016 - 8:48am.

Chart 2 is informative.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/workgro...

This is a wet year were the majority of our developed supply is. What are we doing? Literally running it down the drain to the ocean because we're worried about melt over capacity.

Submitted by phaster on May 23, 2016 - 8:08pm.

AN wrote:
phaster, again, you're assuming that desalination as the only source of water. Toilet to tap was estimated to provide ~30% of our water need. So, it's not necessary to have desalination as the only solution. Then there's the improvement of storm water run off so that the rain we do get doesn't go into the ocean. Then build a lot more storage so that when we have wet years, we can bank those water for the dry years. We can also not dump a big chunk of fresh water to save the damn smelt. They can go the way of the flightless dodo too.

However, even if we have to build 20 more desalination, why not? If we can spend almost $100B on the damn bullet train, I'm sure we can spend $200B on desalination plants. As I stated, I wouldn't mind paying 5X more water, if that mean we can make the water police go the way of the dodo bird.

Your "solution" isn't really solution at all. Your "solution" is to do nothing at all. Which is what you were railing against. Also, why do we have to restrict ourselves to solution that can provide us with cheap water instead of just providing us water?

picture a kid in kindergarten

now imagine if the kindergarten teacher asked the kid what 1+1 is...

obviously as grown ups we would not think the right answer would be if the kid finger painted a car and an airplane (but to a kid they might not know OR care about "math" they just want to draw a car or an airplane because its "sexy" and "fun")

point being, a "solution" is only possible when the problem is fully understood and there is no bias toward some preconceived outcome!! FURTHERMORE any "solution" to a real world problem must take into account the limited resources of: time, money, and labor

also its important to note sometimes there are "problems" w/ out "solutions"

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/UnsolvedPro...

WRT drought "solutions" you might be (for example) target fixated and buy into say a big beautiful pipeline from alaska to california (which has to cross CANADA which is a foreign country last I checked, as well as the states of WA and OR, which is a hell of long way, before water reaches CA...) so did you ever stop and think what an up hill political "bull shit" battle that would be?

like wise IN THE ADULT WORLD COSTS DO MATTER

consider while some kids might want their mom/dad to drive a ferrari to take them to kindergarten, parents have to worry about details like how much is a ferrari going to cost, what is the insurance, how much will it cost to fix, etc. AND that basically explains why in the real world there are lines of SUVs dropping kids off @ kindergarten (as oppose to a line of ferarri's)... both are basically just a means of transportation, but the cost and practically between a "ferarri" and a POS "kia" SUV are worlds apart!

same idea of analysis WRT cost and practically is applicable to the problem of securing water supplies (whether its via a pipeline, desalination plant(s), buying water rights from farmers, building more reservoir capacity, etc. etc. etc.)!!!

when I was an undergrad one thing I stumbled upon was a seminar project class w/ the dude who actually started UCSD (about a year before he died)

https://revelle.ucsd.edu/about/roger-rev...

the idea of the class was to point out to students the real world value of understanding the role of science as it relates to evaluating/making policy

what was cool about the class was 1:1 access to world class scientists who set aside time to interact w/ knucklehead students (figured if the offer was out there, I'd take advantage of the opportunity to ask some questions and hopefully learn something - NOTE google/siri kinda accomplish the same thing today, my how times have changed)

at the time the fed's wanted SD to upgrade its sewage water treatment to a "secondary" level because of something to do w/ the clean water act

anyway one thing I kinda looked into was the cost/benefit of "secondary" water treatment at the point loma plant before treated water was basically sent a few miles off shore and released into the ocean

local officials were seeking a waver of federal law which mandated "secondary" water treatment, because studies indicated marine wild life would not benefit if the release of regions sewage was upgraded to "secondary" @ point loma

basically "primary" treatment @ point loma was all that was needed, because given the "unique" circumstance of geography of SD, the treated sewage was being released in the pacific ocean and not in a river

long story short, "SCIENCE" indicated it was unnecessary to spend money to upgrade equipment at point loma to clean water to a level that las vegas had to do (because cities like LA and san diego were down stream)

actually toilet to tap has been happening for years (as I learned back in the day) since SD is down stream las vegas which has to have its own sewage treated to "primary" as well as to a "secondary" level before being released back into the colorado river

also at the time pondered the cost/benefits of treating the water of the point loma plant to a secondary level and building a pipeline to the san vicente reservoir (so that water could basically go from toilet to tap w/ in the SD region), but that would have required building a pipeline and associated infrastructure from point loma all the way out to the reservoir, so "treated water" could sit a while then be re-used as a "supply"

if memory serves there was an effort (which failed) to get "toilet to tap" actually working in this region

because to the general public "toilet to tap" wasn't appealing or necessary to reuse treated sewage (as another supply for this region) the reaction to try and close the deal was a rebranding effort w/ the tag line "showers to flowers"

also about that time period, personally started looking at climate change "data" and had a strong gut feeling (back in the day) it was inevitable that weather patterns were going to change and lessen the precipitation in the region (which has since come true)

so personally have always been in favor or building more reservoir capacity, building lots more desalination plants, upgrading the treatment of sewage for reuse (in this region), tripling if not more the cost of water to the end users to send the economic signal that "water" is a resources that should be treasured and used in the most efficient way possible, BUT sadly very very very few, feel the same way or look and try and understand the big picture

we all learn and pick up stuff over the years and FWIW here are three key object lessons I've learned (that seem applicable to the matter @ hand)

1st - its important to remember that shit has its costs which eventually must be paid for... and sometime well intended laws (to protect the environment) makes no scientific sense!

2nd - reality is... it takes a real long time to get shit done, when problems are big, complex and co$tly to implement

KPBS wrote:

(i.e. Drinking Water Starts Flowing From Carlsbad Desalination Plant)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeKNLYSJjik

KPBS report @ 0:24
"the roots of this facility really date back 25 years..."

3rd - AND last object lesson learned is... sometimes SHIT HAPPENS and "cannot be avoided" (i.e. when the system is very politically corrupt and financially mismanage, conditions change for say 100 years and mother-nature does not provide enough precipitation in a region to meet demand, etc. etc. etc.) so figure if this is the case, the best approach is "head on" and hope to live through the bad situation...

Submitted by an on May 23, 2016 - 9:51pm.

Nope. We'll just have to agree it disagree. I don't think this is that big of a problem and will have it resolved sooner rather than later. I'm pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life instead of do nothing and reduce their quality of life. So the pressure from the public will be, find more sources of water even if it'll cost more. The time for cheap water is over but I firmly believe we'll have this water problem solved.

Submitted by phaster on May 28, 2016 - 8:12am.

AN wrote:

Nope. We'll just have to agree it disagree. I don't think this is that big of a problem and will have it resolved sooner rather than later. I'm pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life instead of do nothing and reduce their quality of life. So the pressure from the public will be, find more sources of water even if it'll cost more. The time for cheap water is over but I firmly believe we'll have this water problem solved.

because you stated the personal "belief" the drought is not a big problem AND think solution(s) will be implemented (sooner rather than later) AND given this website's slogan is in god we trust, everyone else bring data, what came to mind is a variation of pascal's wager

wikipedia.org wrote:

Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas they stand to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s...

if everyone acted and invested some time, effort and money to prepare and live a "distributive resilience lifestyle" where natural resources like water would be used as efficiently as possible because we acknowledged long term drought conditions was the norm (instead of the exception), basically the economy would be more sustainable (than it is now) and work better for rich and poor alike.

http://www.californiadrought.org/drought...

mercurynews.com wrote:

"How will we know when the drought is over?"

The answer, water experts say, is more complicated than you'd think.

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29...

also thought,... "pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life" HOW??? we're mostly tapped out!

nbcnews.com wrote:

"Two-Thirds of U.S. Would Struggle to Cover $1,000 Crisis: Poll"

Two-thirds of Americans would have difficulty coming up with the money to cover a $1,000 emergency, according to a poll released Thursday, a signal that despite years of recovery from the Great Recession, Americans' financial conditions remains precarious as ever.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business...

sandiegouniontribune.com wrote:

SD income rises, but high poverty persists

The median household income in 2014 was $66,192, up from $62,081 the previous year (in 2014 dollars). The new income figure surpasses that of 2007 in real dollars but still lags when inflation is factored in.

The dogged poverty levels amid rising household incomes is a paradox caused by people who already have jobs earning bigger paychecks, and new better paying jobs being filled by people who are not living in poverty.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

SUMMARY of TRENDS (key to understanding the logic of water shortage)

"precipitation" ~ DOWN
"groundwater (reserves)" ~ DOWN
"water use" ~ UP
"population" ~ UP
"infrastructure" ~ DOWN
"economy/wages (for majority)" ~ DOWN
"political bullshit" ~ UP

CONCLUSION

[seems inevitable] a goal [of drought "solutions" being implemented sooner rather than later] without a plan is just a wish [that will end up being a living nightmare]

FYI the "Fermi Paradox" is an astrophysics-economics model describing challenges to finding extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe

basically in order to develop advanced technology, a civilization (people) must manage stuff like their natural resources wisely in order to survive the long run

this concept is very relevant to the matter @ hand because the original people/society on easter island did not manage their natural resources very wisely, so they died off long before they were able to develop advance technology (which is a lesson that sadly is not well appreciated by 99.999% of the general population)

deforestation/rats/etc. (not drought mis-management) were the contributing factors of the extinction of the original people/society on easter island,

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/...

but no matter the overall idea of a "great filter" posing a danger which can kill off a civilization (before it can develop advanced technology) is the same...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

PS for an example of a drought that most likely helped kill off a society (in our neck of the woods), all you have to do is visit Mesa Verde National Park

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliih...

so still feeling confident that the drought (water problem) isn't that big of a problem and can be solved in time to avert TSHTF?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 28, 2016 - 8:17am.

phaster wrote:
AN wrote:

Nope. We'll just have to agree it disagree. I don't think this is that big of a problem and will have it resolved sooner rather than later. I'm pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life instead of do nothing and reduce their quality of life. So the pressure from the public will be, find more sources of water even if it'll cost more. The time for cheap water is over but I firmly believe we'll have this water problem solved.

because you stated the personal "belief" the drought is not a big problem AND think solution(s) will be implemented (sooner rather than later) AND given this website's slogan is in god we trust, everyone else bring data, what came to mind is a variation of pascal's wager

wikipedia.org wrote:

Pascal argues that a rational person should live as though God exists and seek to believe in God. If God does not actually exist, such a person will have only a finite loss (some pleasures, luxury, etc.), whereas they stand to receive infinite gains (as represented by eternity in Heaven) and avoid infinite losses (eternity in Hell).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s...

if everyone acted and invested some time, effort and money to prepare and live a "distributive resilience lifestyle" where natural resources like water would be used as efficiently as possible because we acknowledged long term drought conditions was the norm (instead of the exception), basically the economy would be more sustainable (than it is now) and work better for rich and poor alike.

http://www.californiadrought.org/drought...

mercurynews.com wrote:

"How will we know when the drought is over?"

The answer, water experts say, is more complicated than you'd think.

http://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_29...

also thought,... "pretty sure the majority of Californian will rather pay more to maintain or improve their quality of life" HOW??? we're mostly tapped out!

nbcnews.com wrote:

"Two-Thirds of U.S. Would Struggle to Cover $1,000 Crisis: Poll"

Two-thirds of Americans would have difficulty coming up with the money to cover a $1,000 emergency, according to a poll released Thursday, a signal that despite years of recovery from the Great Recession, Americans' financial conditions remains precarious as ever.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business...

sandiegouniontribune.com wrote:

SD income rises, but high poverty persists

The median household income in 2014 was $66,192, up from $62,081 the previous year (in 2014 dollars). The new income figure surpasses that of 2007 in real dollars but still lags when inflation is factored in.

The dogged poverty levels amid rising household incomes is a paradox caused by people who already have jobs earning bigger paychecks, and new better paying jobs being filled by people who are not living in poverty.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

SUMMARY of TRENDS (key to understanding the logic of water shortage)

"precipitation" ~ DOWN
"groundwater (reserves)" ~ DOWN
"water use" ~ UP
"population" ~ UP
"infrastructure" ~ DOWN
"economy/wages (for majority)" ~ DOWN
"political bullshit" ~ UP

CONCLUSION

[seems inevitable] a goal [of drought "solutions" being implemented sooner rather than later] without a plan is just a wish [that will end up being a living nightmare]

FYI the "Fermi Paradox" is an astrophysics-economics model describing challenges to finding extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe

basically in order to develop advanced technology, a civilization (people) must manage stuff like their natural resources wisely in order to survive the long run

this concept is very relevant to the matter @ hand because the original people/society on easter island did not manage their natural resources very wisely, so they died off long before they were able to develop advance technology (which is a lesson that sadly is not well appreciated by 99.999% of the general population)

deforestation/rats/etc. (not drought mis-management) were the contributing factors of the extinction of the original people/society on easter island,

http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/...

but no matter the overall idea of a "great filter" posing a danger which can kill off a civilization (before it can develop advanced technology) is the same...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

PS for an example of a drought that most likely helped kill off a society (in our neck of the woods), all you have to do is visit Mesa Verde National Park

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/cliih...

so still feeling confident that the drought (water problem) isn't that big of a problem and can be solved in time to avert TSHTF?

financially, water would be the number one priority, even over food, if the TSHTF. we really don't need much to survive. I only take 2 showers a,week and would be willing to cut down. I basically wipe down with a damp rag. I'd cut down on all discretionary spending to get a few gallons for home use.

it wouldn't be the end of the society. it'd be like camping.

Submitted by phaster on May 28, 2016 - 9:54am.

usatoday.com wrote:

Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought

California suffered one of its driest years in 2015. And last year the state hit its driest four-year period on record.

But Donald Trump isn't sold. The presumptive GOP nominee told supporters in Fresno, Calif., on Friday night that no such dry spell exists.

Trump said state officials were simply denying water to Central Valley farmers to prioritize the Delta smelt, a native California fish nearing extinction — or as Trump called it, "a certain kind of three-inch fish.”

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/polit...

http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article...

http://gawker.com/water-scientist-donald...

alternet.org wrote:

'Idiocracy' Realized: How Our Current Situation Is Worse Than the Film Predicted

Donald Trump's political ascendancy has made Idiocracy seem like prophecy. (Or, per a viral tweet by the film’s screenwriter, a “documentary.”) As satire, however, Idiocracy is uneven, precisely because recent events have already exceeded its most trenchant bits of lunacy. In the fictional Idiocracy future, Congress is full of idiots who do nothing but yell, “You’re a dick!” at the president. But those antics pale in comparison to stunts pulled by presumptive Republican presidential nominee Trump, a billionaire real-estate developer and reality TV show star whose foreign policy proposals include telling China, Listen, you motherfuckers, we’re going to tax you 25 percent!

http://www.alternet.org/media/corporate-...

translate.google.com: (Donald Trump = Idiocracy)

Submitted by phaster on May 28, 2016 - 10:03am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

financially, water would be the number one priority, even over food, if the TSHTF. we really don't need much to survive. I only take 2 showers a,week and would be willing to cut down. I basically wipe down with a damp rag. I'd cut down on all discretionary spending to get a few gallons for home use.

it wouldn't be the end of the society. it'd be like camping.

I like camping (when I know I have an exit strategy), but don't think I'd like camping when I have to account for the weapons of mass financial destruction (or geopolitics) when back in town...

motherjones.com wrote:

Wall Street Investors Take Aim at Farmland

Corporations are starting to buy up US farmland, especially in areas dominated by industrial-scale agriculture, like Iowa and California's Central Valley. But the land-grabbing companies aren't agribusinesses like Monsanto and Cargill. Instead, they're financial firms: investment arms of insurance companies, banks, pension funds, and the like.

For Wall Street, farmland represents a "reassuringly tangible commodity" with the potential for "solid, if not excellent, returns,"

http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/...

California goes nuts

The value of the California almond market hit $4.8 billion in 2012—that's triple the level of a decade earlier. Only dairy is worth more to the state than almonds and grapes. In fact, almonds, along with California-grown pistachios and walnuts, are becoming so lucrative that big investment funds, eager to get in on the boom, are snapping up land and dropping in trees.

There's just one problem: Almond orchards require about a third more water per acre than grape vineyards.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2...

csmonitor.com wrote:

Why Saudi Arabia bought 14,000 acres of US farm land

The Middle Eastern kingdom needs hay for its 170,000 cows. So, it's buying up farmland for the water-chugging crop in the drought-stricken American Southwest.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/201...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 28, 2016 - 1:14pm.

2 showers a week sounds weird.
One of my friend just traveled to Machu Picchu with an older male mutual friend whom she's known for 20 years. She said the old man is a dear friend but smells, doesn't brush his teeth in the morning before room service. Overeats and sleeps; dresses sloppy, speaks loudly, and overall has degraded over time to a sad state.

Be careful, you might turn into the smelly grandfather people avoid.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 28, 2016 - 1:27pm.

Phaster, if you've been concerned with water since your undergrad days, california is the wrong place for you.
As a backup, you should own land in a tropical area where you can easily collect rain water.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2016 - 7:35am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
2 showers a week sounds weird.
One of my friend just traveled to Machu Picchu with an older male mutual friend whom she's known for 20 years. She said the old man is a dear friend but smells, doesn't brush his teeth in the morning before room service. Overeats and sleeps; dresses sloppy, speaks loudly, and overall has degraded over time to a sad state.

Be careful, you might turn into the smelly grandfather people avoid.

What is it that causes offensive human smell. I'm wondering if showers are as much a cover up as covering the body with perfume. clean clothing and clean armpits go a long way.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 29, 2016 - 9:33am.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-showering...

showering may kill good bacteria on our skin.

I'm wondering if perceived shower necessitycomes down to clean sleek pooping or messy poops. tax incentives for bidets?

Submitted by phaster on May 30, 2016 - 3:37pm.

AN wrote:

Whether you think the politician is capable of fixing the problem or not is irrelevant, since they have a monopoly. for our sake, I hope they get their act together and fix the problem. If we can have Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA, I'm pretty sure we can fix the water problem.

as I said... a "solution" is only possible when the problem is fully understood and there is no bias toward some preconceived outcome!! FURTHERMORE any "solution" to a real world problem must take into account the limited resources of: time, money, and labor

therefore it is very relevant to acknowledge/address the corruption/mis-management w/ in the political system @ all levels of government because it in turn causes corruption/mis-management w/ in the economy!

60 MINUTES wrote:

"Dialing for Dollars" aired on April 24, 2016

Members of Congress raised more than a billion dollars for their 2014 election. And they never stop.

Nearly every day, they spend hours on the phone asking supporters and even total strangers for campaign donations -- hours spent away from the jobs they were elected to do.

...And your job, new member of Congress, is to raise $18,000 a day. Your first responsibility is to make sure you hit $18,000 a day.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-a...

phaster wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
Parabolica wrote:
The problem with defined contributions plans as I see it is that the vast majority of working people lack the financial sophistication required to invest for their retirement.

I have no idea who is right in this argument or what is fair, but I'd like to point out another issue that worries me about defined benefit vs 401k. That is that 401ks are generally optional, while defined benefit are not. I have well educated, professional friends working in high tech careers, in their late 50s who have never put any money into a 401 or any retirement plan (other than social security). Compare that to govt. workers or teachers who have no choice but to contribute. Not only are people not savvy enough to manage the financial waters, they aren't savvy enough to figure out they need to save to have a retirement fund. Not sure how to fix that, but it seems to me to be a big issue lurking out there.

there is indeed a BIG ISSUE LURKING

[modesty/sarcasm ON]

and FWIW IMHO I'm RIGHT and everyone ELSE is to blame for causing an economic mess...

[modesty/sarcasm OFF]

As it stands politicians/lawyers/public-employees-union-members think it would be fair for the taxpayers to make them whole (after all they are the one's who did all the hard work of implementing the policies, writing the contracts and were in charge of the day in and day out operation of various pension fund accounts...)

"they" (politicians/lawyers/public-employees) using circular logic would argue, thus it is written (and ignoring "crucial evidence") therefore we find its the LAW

this POV isn't much different than the approach taken by leadership in the catholic church back in the day when the pope made a law that which said, the earth was at the center of the universe (and ignored all the math and science)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nat...

http://www.studentpulse.com/articles/533...

WRT the operation of the local pension fund - notice in press releases - on the side that supports the politicians/lawyers/public-employees position, stories ALL BUT IGNORE THE MATH because its an inconvenient truth

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/busine...

AND instead hide behind the convenient fiction that its possible to have a sustainable DB program for honest hard working muni "union" employees who will suffer otherwise

in the december 2015 (back pages news-paper story) that started me questioning the wisdom of existing fund management (yet again), the actuaries long ago calculated out that in order for the LOCAL pension portfolio to work, the investment vehicles (bonds, stocks, etc.) basically had to grow 8% over the long haul!!!

BUT as we know from year to year the market will vary...

so some years the total return of the portfolio will be much GREATER than the actuaries design target of 8%,... and some years the total return of the portfolio will be much LOWER than the the actuaries design target of 8%,... BUT OVERALL the idea was that pension portfolio was designed to AVERAGE OUT to 8%

its impossible to say exact DEBT figures w/out more data BUT think of the problem as being, for the past three decades the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) said hey the portfolio is doing great and give themselves a pension bonus payment of say anything greater than the actuaries target of 8% (thinking this "EXTRA" is not needed)

for example, back in the 1980's and 1990's when the market was really booming (and the portfolio produced returns on average much greater than 8%)

THE HISTORICAL RATE OF RETURN FOR THE STOCK MARKET SINCE 1900

...
during the 1980s the market returned on average 17.57%
during the 1990s the market returned on average 18.17%
...

http://www.stockpickssystem.com/historic...

the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) in the 1980's said hey since we averaged 17.57% in the market, so we have an EXTRA of 9.57% to give our selves because of a simple formula we included in a contract (average market return - actuaries design target = EXTRA) or (17.57%-8% =9.57%)

the portfolio operators (i.e. politicians/lawyers/public-employees) in the 1990's said hey since we averaged 18.17%, we have an EXTRA of 10.17% because (18.17%-8% =10.17.%)

a misunderstanding of how "averages" work explains why the portfolio is BILLIONS in DEBT

City pensioners get '13th check' bonus

More than $6.1 million has been distributed to retired San Diego city employees in the form of a "13th check" — beyond their usual 12 monthly payments — making this year's holiday bonus the largest such payout in the history of the three-decade-old practice.

But it's become a source of conflict as the city's pension system faces a $2 billion shortfall in promised payments, which remains a taxpayer burden and has led to budget crises in the past at City Hall.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

what the $hit for brains managers of the San Diego pension portfolio did, was in reality take/pocketed for themselves the "excess" profits back in boom decades of the 80's and 90's that were originally designed to be kept w/in the account so that the portfolio averaged out to 8% from the 1980's to the present day...

Handbook of Frauds, Scams, and Swindles: Failures of Ethics in Leadership (edited by Serge Matulich, David M. Currie)

Though SDCERS investments were earning well above the 8 percent rate of return estimated by the system actuaries, under normal conditions investments surpluses are required to make up for below-average returns in other years to achieve the average rate of return. Therefore, unless the actuaries' estimates are grossly incorrect, in the long run true "surplus earnings" are impossible. The use of surplus earnings for the purposes other than maintaining the pension system, such as to expand existing benefits should be viewed as a loan from the system THAT WILL REQUIRE REPAYMENT IN THE FUTURE.

page 286

https://books.google.com/books?id=VLxvUV...

the economic problem NOW (and into the foreseeable future) is further compounded with financial instruments like "swaps" (which really supercharges the amount of money that somehow needs to be accounted for w/in the system)

http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy1504.pdf

and IMHO makes an economic disaster all but unavoidable (all because politicians/lawyers in a position of power who were suppose to over see pension portfolio operations, never took a step back to look at the big picture and apply basic middle school math concepts WRT the financial instruments they were in charge of)!!

BOTTOM LINE debt is akin to added weight on the sword of Damocles, which has been said to overhang the economy

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/19/139799434/...

basically the state of the economy (i.e. credit markets/finance system) determines if stuff like drought related mitigation infrastructure can be built/operated (like water pipelines, reservoirs, desalination plants, sewage treatment, etc.)

furthermore a distinction must be made,... the government cannot just declare corporate bankruptcy (like trump has done four times to protect his personal personal fortune from idiotic management decisions) and expect to keep the system going (i.e. over-leveraged casino and hotel properties in Atlantic City are an UNNECESSARY LUXURY for society to function, a utility system that provides/treats water is a NECESSITY for society to exist!)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/clareoconnor...

BTW since you mentioned it did ya ever stop and think what "Tesla, SpaceX, Google, Apple, etc in CA" have in common?

HINT the founders of all these successful "tech" companies were into and understand the importants of math/science, they are not politicians/lawyers who basically contribute nothing but bullshit and corruption!

Submitted by phaster on May 30, 2016 - 3:54pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Phaster, if you've been concerned with water since your undergrad days, california is the wrong place for you.
As a backup, you should own land in a tropical area where you can easily collect rain water.

even though I have many concerns about various (mis)management aspects wrt "water" in california AND been around the world enough to know whats out there, for the time being SD the best place to be (for me) since I don't want to give up a comfortable abode in a "charismatic" neighborhood w/ various coffee houses, bars, farm to table restaurants, etc. (located an easy walking distance away)

http://www.sandiego.org/articles/tours-s...

WRT contingency plans, my "real estate" needs are modest (and turnkey)...

http://survivalcondo.com

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/20...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLy6AXjwQK8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mBJV018Eqo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjpYHoSWAYY

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 31, 2016 - 6:41pm.

The contingency links you provided are for temporary disaster only
You can't live in your mansion in LA for decades in case of doom. There will be marauders with guns everywhere and supplies will not get through.

My answer is a small sustainable family farm on a mountainous tropical island with good soil, in the Pacific. You need some chicken, rabbits, a veggie garden. You can live in peace, off the grid, and nobody will come kill you for food and water.

Submitted by phaster on June 2, 2016 - 2:06pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The contingency links you provided are for temporary disaster only
You can't live in your mansion in LA for decades in case of doom. There will be marauders with guns everywhere and supplies will not get through.

[modesty/sarcasm ON]

links were out line ideas, since nothing in the "local" MLS looked as remotely cool as stuff I've in the action/spy movies OR combined the luxury I am worthy of...

and a (website) for a "trump" branded luxury zombie apocalypse condo shelter w/ 24/7 concierge service, was nowhere to be found...

http://www.infowars.com/superyacht-getaw...

[modesty/sarcasm OFF]

FYI its the end of the "El Niño" event

http://www.theguardian.com/global-develo...

and the scorecard indicates a "temporary reprieve" from the drought here in california...

BUT think it best if things were put in context...

desertsun.com wrote:

USGS estimates vast amounts of water used in California

How much water does California use each year?

It's a complicated question, but the U.S. Geological Survey now has an answer for 2010: 42 million acre-feet per year, or about 38 billion gallons per day.

That includes water pumped from wells plus all of the water taken from sources such as rivers, canals and reservoirs.

To put that vast number in perspective: California has been using the equivalent of the full capacity of Lake Shasta, the state's largest reservoir, every 40 days.

In one newly published study in the journal Environmental Research Letters, University of California researchers found that the state has handed out approximately five times more water rights than the total amount of freshwater runoff in an average year.

http://www.desertsun.com/story/news/envi...

perhaps in the relentless pursuit of creating an agribusiness friendly environment here in CA, seems we presently have a government w/ a 5:1 "over promised" ratio of assigned water rights to average annual rain fall runoff,... which kinda brings to mind an enron style accounting system or fabulous returns that might be promised "suckers" in a "Ponzi scheme" (before the inevitable fall)

breitbart.com wrote:

you know some of the best deals
are the deals you don't do
you understand that
and we're going to solve your water problem
you have a water problem that is so insane
it is so ridiculous
where they are taking the water
and shoving it out to sea

...blah, blah, blah

no one understands it
and I've heard this from other friends of mine in california

...blah, blah, blah

a certain kind of three-inch fish

...blah, blah, blah

http://gawker.com/water-scientist-donald...

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidenti...

up to a point have to agree w/ donald

YES we have a water problem that is so insane and so ridiculous...

BUT the problem isn't "a certain kind of three-inch fish," its politicians/lawyers who time and time again demonstrate similar brain power to "a certain kind of three-inch fish" in that they seem to have no concept of math and cause problems in the first place by doing stupid shit that only exacerbates things during periods of natural drought,... like NOT REALIZING that allocating 370 million acre-feet of water rights BUT HAVING PUBLISHED DATA that states in an average year there is only about 70 million acre-feet of freshwater runoff, IS A BASIC MATH PROBLEM

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article...

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108...

i'd guess the statement "DEMAND (370 million acre-feet of water) > SUPPLY (70 million acre-feet of freshwater runoff)" isn't the simple straightforward explanation donald or his friends want to acknowledge as reality!

how much ya wanna bet *cough* there was some old boys club networking and political champaign donations (i.e. agribusiness lobbyists)

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2014/04/...

https://represent.us/action/cardoza/

unfortunately the situation is made much, much, much worst because as there is a "swaps" danger WRT the (mis)management of the local public pension portfolio, seems there is a parallel trend toward creating a "World Water Market and Water Derivatives"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ah81wkEBT4

FWIW IMHO the only way to avoid a dystopian future (for the masses WRT "water"), is hope benevolent scientists develop new technology to lower the cost of producing deSal water, and that the population at large agree to some kind of moral guidelines WRT caring for the global environment (i.e. Laudato Si')

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOgF2Kgel6k

as it stands current deSal is costly because the filters are "thick" and require high pressure (i.e. HIGH amounts of energy) to force fluid through the membrane

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVdWqbpbv_Y

if a new single atom "thin" filter can be developed on a commercial scale, then all that will be needed is low pressure (i.e. LOW energy requirements) to force fluid through the "thin" membrane

http://phys.org/news/2016-03-revolutiona...

another alternative deSal setup that could be viable in arid regions would be concentrated solar, which was shown being tested in a news segment awhile back (TechKnow: The New Dust Bowl)

http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows...

have to go now and (as you suggested) look for a sustainable family farm where I can live in peace, off the grid *far* away from the series of intertubes that delivers information (like Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought) around the world via computer

http://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/l...

http://www.luxuryranchrealestate.com/ran...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 2, 2016 - 2:22pm.

phaster wrote:

have to go now and (as you suggested) look for a sustainable family farm where I can live in peace, off the grid *far* away from the series of intertubes that delivers information (like Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought) around the world via computer

http://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/l...

http://www.luxuryranchrealestate.com/ran...

phaster, those places require infrastructure, a supply chain and law an order. They are far from sustainable. You're looking at things from a modern American perspective where technology can be applied.

Connecticut is cold as hell and nothing will grow in the winter.

For family subsistence without trade or much labor, you need a tropical area where, in your backyard, you have bananas, mangoes, pineapples, all kinds of nutritious tropical fruits, tons of veggies, a large pond from water storage, and some small animals to eat for protein. In Tropical climates, things just grow without much effort.

A wet tropical, mountainous island is the Pacific is best because nobody without a big boat can reach it. The soil is volcanic and rich (make sure you plant an orchard and have veggie seeds). The mountain will protect you from rising sea levels. You don't need electricity, water pumps or anything like that.

Submitted by phaster on June 2, 2016 - 2:41pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
phaster wrote:

have to go now and (as you suggested) look for a sustainable family farm where I can live in peace, off the grid *far* away from the series of intertubes that delivers information (like Donald Trump tells Californians there is no drought) around the world via computer

http://www.christiesrealestate.com/eng/l...

http://www.luxuryranchrealestate.com/ran...

phaster, those places require infrastructure, a supply chain and law an order. They are far from sustainable. You're looking at things from a modern American perspective where technology can be applied.

Connecticut is cold as hell and nothing will grow in the winter.

For family subsistence without trade or much labor, you need a tropical area where, in your backyard, you have bananas, mangoes, pineapples, all kinds of nutritious tropical fruits, tons of veggies, a large pond from water storage, and some small animals to eat for protein. In Tropical climates, things just grow without much effort.

A wet tropical, mountainous island is the Pacific is best because nobody without a big boat can reach it. The soil is volcanic and rich (make sure you plant an orchard and have veggie seeds). The mountain will protect you from rising sea levels. You don't need electricity, water pumps or anything like that.

humor kinda gets lost on the internet...

included those links as sorta a joke

reality is a tiny home is more to my liking

https://padtinyhouses.com/books-plans/hi...

and even am trying my hand at "farming" (got a few ideas from a conference here in town)

http://www.permaculturevoices.com/pv3/

Submitted by phaster on June 8, 2016 - 8:39am.

FWIW

waterworld.com wrote:

DOCUMENTARY HIGHLIGHTS SAN DIEGO REGION'S WATER HISTORY

SAN DIEGO, June 2, 2016 -- The San Diego County Water Authority has released a succinct yet engaging new documentary series that highlights the major events in the San Diego region’s ongoing quest for safe and reliable water supplies.

Available at

www.sdcwa.org/quench-thirst-documentary-...

and based on the book "To Quench a Thirst: A Brief History of Water in the San Diego Region," the three-part video series provides a 13-minute overview that traces the search for water from the region’s indigenous people through generations of area leaders who developed the region’s diversified water supply portfolio and robust infrastructure that today sustains 3.2 million people and a $218 billion economy. "To Quench a Thirst" was first published by the San Diego County Water Authority in 2002 and updated in 2013.

These videos are now part of the curriculum for the Water Authority’s award-winning Citizens Water Academy, a class series for community leaders interested in water issues. The videos are also designed for use by teachers, community groups and others who want to learn more about the management of the region’s most precious natural resource. For more information on Citizens Water Academy, go to

www.sdcwa.org/citizens-water-academy .

http://www.waterworld.com/articles/2016/...

NASA's water expert: 'Mad Max' is a glimpse of our drought future, so to survive disaster be aware and prepare!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfhcUP0bWTk

http://www.scpr.org/programs/take-two/20...

usnews.com wrote:

Pope Francis' encyclical on the environment and human ecology is on solid scientific, economic and moral ground

“Doomsday predictions can no longer be met with irony or disdain, The pace of consumption, waste and environmental change has so stretched the planet’s capacity that our contemporary lifestyle, unsustainable as it is, can only precipitate catastrophes.”

- Laudato si' (On Care for our Common Home)

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/fait...

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