Top 10 SD County Zips for 2-year appreciation

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Submitted by gzz on May 11, 2022 - 9:29am

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 11, 2022 - 3:05pm.

Id take this all with a grain of salt because quite often these things represent a change in the mix rather than an increase in value of of each housing unit by said amount.

Case in point. Three years ago I sold a place in the heart of North Park for around $425. Today it would sell for at most $650K which is about 50% in 3 years rather than the reported 83% in 2 years.

Another case in point is the 92010 market which reported at 69% gain in 2 years. Until the last decade, most of the housing stock was from the 80's with just a little from early 2000's. Until the last 2-3 years most sales were the older housing stock. Between 2012 and 2015 The Foothills went in bringing bigger and newer homes that didnt exist there. Then between 2017/2019 high end homes hit 92010 in Robertson Ranch. Its only been the last couple years that these homes starting hitting the market en masse especially the RR which could go into the 3M range for the right house now.

So part is appreciation but a lot can be a change of mix also

Submitted by gzz on May 11, 2022 - 4:46pm.

I doubt there was especially significant compositional changes from Feb 2020 to Feb 2022 in most SD zip codes.

A bigger issue perhaps would be small sample size, especially in the smaller zips.

Another issue is that some areas have major flipper renovations between sales while they are rare in others. This effect is largest in hot areas with older stock like Claremont, and less significant in new areas and the poshest areas where relatively few homes are in poor shape and extremely dated. So if 20% of Claremont homes have a 50k flip renovation and the average price is 1M, that means the zip’s appreciation is overstated by about 1%. Not a huge amount in this market, but 1% a year also does add up.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on May 11, 2022 - 5:39pm.

gzz wrote:
This effect is largest in hot areas with older stock like Claremont, and less significant in new areas and the poshest areas where relatively few homes are in poor shape and extremely dated.

This doesn't match what I see in La Jolla. There are a surprising number of homes in poor shape that are quite dated. There are a lot of flips in LJ. Although these flips tend to be tear down to the studs and build something significantly bigger.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 11, 2022 - 5:42pm.

All good points too and examples of why these published stats are to be taken with a grain of salt. To really understand one needs to look at like for like sales.

Like this

In first 4 months of 2020 there were 3 sales of 2/2 900 sq ft model in the Plaza on Diamond St in PB. They were 470K, 495K and 495K.

This year those same months there is one sale at 615K. It was listed at 640K and sat on market for 3 months so price was fully vetted by market. I know I could find plenty of examples just like that all over PB nowhere close to 92% increase. PB is somewhere that has had lots of beach flips and teardown new builds

I do this for a living and follow things closely. No matter what anyone chooses to write about the highest appreciation I have seen is along the North County Coast and in RB/4S area where its also easiest to prove with tract homes that sell like for like.

Or if you want to choose a condo there's one about to close in La Costa near a family member. Two years ago similar unit sold for 430. Six months ago 520K. Now 750K. Thats 75% in 2 years and 45% in 6 months. Like for like

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 11, 2022 - 5:44pm.

On other thing that could skew in beach areas is for decades the prime homes have been held and sales rare. In the last year I have seen more spectacular pieces of beach properties sold along the entire coast of SD County. Before we hit these price levels those homes rarely if ever came up but now I see them regularly. Thats a compositional change too

Submitted by gzz on May 11, 2022 - 5:55pm.
Submitted by sdrealtor on May 11, 2022 - 7:27pm.

Yup awful inaccurate data. Has median in my zip was at 1.125m two years ago and 1.66m now. Two years ago my house was pretty much that median priced home at around 1.125m. Today it’s $2m plus not anywhere close to 1.66m. That’s like for like.

Submitted by svelte on May 13, 2022 - 11:02am.

I sniffed around Zillow today.

A 20-30 yo 1900 SF home in San Marcos sold for $1.1M this month. Thinking it was an anomaly, I looked over other recent sales. Nope, not an anomaly.

Prices are absolutely insane. San Marcos is where normal middle-class folks can buy. Or at least *could* buy.

This can't continue.

Either that or we are seeing some sort of seismic change in an extremely short time period.

Personally, I don't think its healthy. It feels like we are well on our way to becoming the new silicon valley, given prices like these.

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2022 - 11:18am.

Agree with every bit of that

Submitted by an on May 13, 2022 - 11:29am.

svelte wrote:
I sniffed around Zillow today.

A 20-30 yo 1900 SF home in San Marcos sold for $1.1M this month. Thinking it was an anomaly, I looked over other recent sales. Nope, not an anomaly.

Prices are absolutely insane. San Marcos is where normal middle-class folks can buy. Or at least *could* buy.

This can't continue.

Either that or we are seeing some sort of seismic change in an extremely short time period.

Personally, I don't think its healthy. It feels like we are well on our way to becoming the new silicon valley, given prices like these.

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I agree with everything except for:

svelte wrote:

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I like where we're heading and don't mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

Submitted by svelte on May 13, 2022 - 11:36am.

an wrote:

I agree with everything except for:

svelte wrote:

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I like where we're heading and don't mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.

I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.

So maybe both?

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2022 - 4:29pm.

svelte wrote:
an wrote:

I agree with everything except for:

svelte wrote:

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I like where we're heading and don't mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.

I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.

So maybe both?

Makes a lot of sense. Tech can go anywhere and there is lots of nice housing and good schools up this way. Life sciences needs lab space of which there is lots more in Golden Triangle area plus access to labs at UCSD, Salk, teaching hospitals etc. I think our future is more tied to life sciences than tech.

Submitted by gzz on May 13, 2022 - 6:00pm.

“Personally, I don't think its healthy.”

Get a rental property, you’ll feel much better.

“ go back to being sleepy San Diego”

Move to sleepy Alpine, Spring Valley, or Julian, and if you need a little urban or beach escape, come on over to OB where it mostly still looks like the 1970s, even if property values are 20 times higher.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2022 - 6:11pm.

And getting harrassed by homeless and van lifers is part of daily life. Or come up the coast and enjoy pristine uncrowded, undeveloped beaches owned and preserved by the state

Submitted by gzz on May 13, 2022 - 7:21pm.

“ And getting harrassed by homeless and van lifers is part of daily life. Or come up the coast and enjoy pristine uncrowded, undeveloped beaches owned and preserved by the state”

You’re being a dickhead again. Cut it out.

In fact I am going to just block you. All you do is spam and troll for referrals and crap on everyone and everything other your neighborhood. I will politely ask you to do the same and avoid polluting threads I create.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2022 - 10:50pm.

OK kettle. Do you actually go back and read your posts? Every post anyone makes you try to make about yourself and how great OB or look alike beach areas are doing. You are the biggest homer here! But sadly that is not where the real data shows the most action is. I actually follow these things close enough to know whats really going on all over SD and have shared that for years. Its kinda funny, kinda sad. I dont live in Mira Mesa but I follow it and promote it because I see a great future for it. Ive never lived there and never will. I dont live in San Marcos and never will but it is on a market beating trajectory also. If I was trolling for referrals Id be kissing a$$ instead of kicking it. You have polluted my threads for years. Your post makes me laugh

Submitted by svelte on May 14, 2022 - 12:44am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I dont live in Mira Mesa but I follow it and promote it because I see a great future for it. Ive never lived there and never will. I dont live in San Marcos and never will but it is on a market beating trajectory also.

I get it. Some may dismiss you as snooty but I don't. I understand where you're coming from. You're coastal and will take the plusses and minuses that come with it. Me, I'd prefer to hang back a bit from the coast and rub elbows with more of the middle class. I have to tell you that has bit me in the ass a bit too...big dust-ups with a neighbor. But I'm a scrapper and can hold my own. Came out on top.

20 years ago I could see my trajectory and where we'd end up financially. I could have moved to the coast and been lower-middle class there - and have my kids feel sub-par. Or move to San Marcos and be upper-middle class or better and have my kids feel at least as good as the others, and probably better than that. I chose the latter.

Do I regret it? Nah. My kids are on trajectories to beat mine. When I've expressed regrets on my life, they've told me that the values and opportunities I've given them far outweigh any regrets I may have. That has made me a happy camper.

I don't think you are wrong, I don't think I'm wrong. Just different perspectives. That's what makes the world fun.

Submitted by svelte on May 14, 2022 - 12:49am.

sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
an wrote:

I agree with everything except for:

svelte wrote:

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I like where we're heading and don't mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.

I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.

So maybe both?

Makes a lot of sense. Tech can go anywhere and there is lots of nice housing and good schools up this way. Life sciences needs lab space of which there is lots more in Golden Triangle area plus access to labs at UCSD, Salk, teaching hospitals etc. I think our future is more tied to life sciences than tech.

That is probably true. But I think tech is a much larger field than life sciences so that's why I think they are on equal footing. Could I be wrong? Sure, but I don't give a f*ck. I'm about to head for the cashier's window and kick back in retirement. It's all umbrella drinks and sunglasses from here on out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 14, 2022 - 7:17am.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I dont live in Mira Mesa but I follow it and promote it because I see a great future for it. Ive never lived there and never will. I dont live in San Marcos and never will but it is on a market beating trajectory also.

I get it. Some may dismiss you as snooty but I don't. I understand where you're coming from. You're coastal and will take the plusses and minuses that come with it. Me, I'd prefer to hang back a bit from the coast and rub elbows with more of the middle class. I have to tell you that has bit me in the ass a bit too...big dust-ups with a neighbor. But I'm a scrapper and can hold my own. Came out on top.

20 years ago I could see my trajectory and where we'd end up financially. I could have moved to the coast and been lower-middle class there - and have my kids feel sub-par. Or move to San Marcos and be upper-middle class or better and have my kids feel at least as good as the others, and probably better than that. I chose the latter.

Do I regret it? Nah. My kids are on trajectories to beat mine. When I've expressed regrets on my life, they've told me that the values and opportunities I've given them far outweigh any regrets I may have. That has made me a happy camper.

I don't think you are wrong, I don't think I'm wrong. Just different perspectives. That's what makes the world fun.

Absolutely and IRL I’m anything but snooty. For me if I’m gonna live in CA I’m gonna live close to the ocean. When i moved here i first lived in RB. I spent every weekend driving to the coast. I grew up spending summers at the Jersey Shore and whether i get to the beach or not being close gives me a good feeling inside. I said if I’m gonna live in RB i might as well move to Phoenix. But that’s just me, i like to be coastal and near beautiful open spaces which is why NCC works for me. Others like different settings and that’s fine. I have no bias against any area and just follow what’s going on in as much of SD as I’m able to.

And My family and i have experienced some of what you sought to avoid. I was and still am willing to put up with that to be here. When I’m gone i hope my kids feel the same about this place as i do but if not so be it. Good post svelte.

And i had an awful neighbor for 17 years who surprised me and moved to Idaho last year thinking he was cashing out on top. It’s changed my life for him to be gone. Out with racist, self centered bigot, in with wonderful young couple (Asian and Eastern European) from Bay Area who are a joy to have next door. And i texted him a Zillow screenshot so he could see he left over $600k on the table in less than a year :)

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 14, 2022 - 7:07am.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
an wrote:

I agree with everything except for:

svelte wrote:

I'd rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.

I like where we're heading and don't mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?

BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.

I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.

So maybe both?

Makes a lot of sense. Tech can go anywhere and there is lots of nice housing and good schools up this way. Life sciences needs lab space of which there is lots more in Golden Triangle area plus access to labs at UCSD, Salk, teaching hospitals etc. I think our future is more tied to life sciences than tech.

That is probably true. But I think tech is a much larger field than life sciences so that's why I think they are on equal footing. Could I be wrong? Sure, but I don't give a f*ck. I'm about to head for the cashier's window and kick back in retirement. It's all umbrella drinks and sunglasses from here on out.

I think you’re right tech has been a much larger field but i think we are heading into a period of amazing progress in life sciences. I think it’s gonna grow faster than tech at least around here if not worldwide. Hope I’m around long enough to see a lot of that. So scientists get busy and keep me around a bit longer:)

Submitted by flyer on May 14, 2022 - 9:10am.

Thankfully, I think most of us here love where we have chosen to live in San Diego. Although we have family everywhere in the County and elsewhere, absolutely no other location interests us, other than where we are, as far as our primary goes. Hopefully, that's true for everyone--so there doesn't really seem to be a need to argue about those choices--everyone should just enjoy their chosen place in the sun!

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