The Short Sale Monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on November 6, 2006 - 11:24am

Kudos to Lindismith for providing the inspiration for this thread when wishing she could do a keyword search on ZIP realty for short sales. I just set up a search on the MLS for short sales. I ran a search on the Remarks section, the Confidential remarks section and Suplement for "short sale". I need to do 3 separate searches and there will be some double counting as "short sale" could be in more than one place. Disclaimer: It is far from scientific but is the best we got.

Todays tally among active listings......164 attached and detached homes. I will try to remember to update this each Monday. Remind me if I forget.

Submitted by ybbor on November 6, 2006 - 11:29am.

Great thread Idea.

I can't wait to see how these number will progress over time.

Thanks!
-Robby
http://rvlife.mrwhipper.com/

Submitted by lindismith on November 6, 2006 - 12:47pm.

Only 164? Weird, but that seems low.

I don't know why, but I thought it would be a bigger number.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 6, 2006 - 1:18pm.

I doubt it is complete and the number is likely higher but at least we have something to follow now. When I mapped the locations of the properties it looks like there is a Great Wall of San Diego around the middle of SD county running along 78, the 15 and the 8. The vast majority is on the outside of the wall thus far.

Submitted by North County Jim on November 6, 2006 - 1:56pm.

In all likelihood, the really scary number is the number of listings that should be short sales but are not.

No key word for that, eh?

Submitted by VCJIM on November 6, 2006 - 2:13pm.

Kind of along these lines, there is something I like to do. I go to Foreclosure.com and pull up just the NODs for the zip code I'm looking in. Even though they don't give the full address or details, one can often match them up with listings on Zip. The more you get to know the listings in your area, the easier it is. It's a matching game!

Submitted by Doofrat on November 6, 2006 - 2:23pm.

How about the just trying to get out at breakeven sales where the listing price - 6%(commission) = previous sale price?

Submitted by Larry J. on November 6, 2006 - 2:37pm.

Kudos to you for undertaking the research. On a different note I have gone into Monster.com from time to time and plug in "foreclosure" to see how many jobs pop up. Over the past 3 months or so I would estimate an increase of about 10% in the number of job postings.

I also found your comment interesting about a wall surrounding the interior of San Diego when you mapped out the comment based listings.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 14, 2006 - 10:30pm.

181 and counting. Thats an increase of 10% in just over a week. BTW, total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,853 which is a drop of about 20% from peak inventory (approx 23,500).

Submitted by an on November 15, 2006 - 12:04am.

In crease in desperate seller will bring down price much faster than increase in sellers in general. So this new data of 10% increase in desperate seller is great news even when supply decreased 20%.

Submitted by Mexico Resident on November 15, 2006 - 4:11am.

sdrealtor,
Great info! I really appreciate you contribution.

Submitted by PD on November 15, 2006 - 8:06am.

Prices are set at the margin. This is great info.

Submitted by lindismith on November 15, 2006 - 10:37am.

wow! Thanks for the update, sdrealtor.

My brother-in-law who is a bankruptcy attorney is seeing a lot of people with foreclosures looming. In almost every case they have done everything to hang onto their home. One couple was making their payments, and buying their groceries and gas on credit cards. It simply became too much for them. They are now going to stop making their house payments and find someplace else to live.

He says most of his clients have some combination of lost job, or sickness that results in income problems. A lot of them have simply overspent, but I was surprised by how many that were sick, and had no savings.

Submitted by nsdrltr on November 15, 2006 - 7:08pm.

Searches for "foreclosure" and "pre-foreclosure" yields a few more results. Also, searching for "bank" in the remarks fields brings up many of the bank-owned properties.

Submitted by PerryChase on November 15, 2006 - 8:53pm.

also search for lender approval.

Submitted by lindismith on November 15, 2006 - 10:43pm.

PC, can you search for those terms on Zip?

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2006 - 9:54am.

There are lots of other terms that could be added but we would pick up lots of duplicates. The foreclosure properties are easy to find many other places. Short sales cant be found in any one place because they are pre pre-foreclosure properties in many cases. I chose this number to give us something to watch consistently. Watching the count is not so relevant as watching the velocity of change.

Submitted by powayseller on November 17, 2006 - 11:56pm.

lindi, it sounds like the foreclosures now are due to the natural rate of foreclosures that occur anyway. We still haven't hit the ARM reset foreclosures in a meaningful way? I think by the end of next year, your BIL will see the ARM resets increasing his business.

Most foreclosures result from job loss, divorce, illness, or addiction, and there is a nornal rate of foreclosure in any market. Due to the boom, the foreclosure rate was unusually low, as anyone with a problem could easily sell. Now we are getting back to more normal levels.

The next step, and where I expect to see a big jump, is when ARMs reset at the same time that prices are dropping.

Submitted by lindismith on November 20, 2006 - 1:45pm.

Can we get an update on this?

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 20, 2006 - 5:40pm.

Very Busy day. How about tommorrow...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 21, 2006 - 12:28am.

206 and counting. Thats another 14% increase in a week. BTW, total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,481 (down from 18,853 last week) which is a drop of about 21.5% from peak inventory (approx 23,500). I think we'll get down to 15,000 or less in the next 30 days.

Submitted by an on November 21, 2006 - 12:33am.

Great news, desperate sellers are on the rise and unmotivated seller are leaving the market until the spring. I wonder what the number will be this time next year.

Submitted by sdcellar on November 21, 2006 - 12:38am.

I'm confused, BubbleTracking has inventory at 20,380. His charts support the same rough peak number. What do you suppose causes the discrepency?

Also, is it normal for inventory to drop 18% in December? If not, then why do you think it's going to drop that much this year?

Submitted by North County Jim on November 21, 2006 - 9:51am.

sdr,

Is is possible to break down the inventory reduction? I think it would be illuminating to see how much of the reduced inventory is pending as opposed to withdrawn, cancelled or expired.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 21, 2006 - 12:30pm.

The discrepancy is probably how they are searching. The MLS has alot of listings outside of SD County. When I searched I searched only those in SD County which is a little tricky to do. Bubble tracking probably has alot of inventory outside of SD County.

NCJim,
I'll have to think about that one for alittle to see how I can figure that one out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 21, 2006 - 12:37pm.

NCJim,
Since 7/15 here is what has happened.

25,450 properties listed (many are re-lists)

10,380 properties went pending (about 60% of these have already closed)

9,207 expired (these either relist or give-up for now)

6,706 cancelled (these either re-list often w/ another agent or give up)

2,838 withdrawn (these have given up for now or have a personal reason to come off the market for a while)

Have at it!

Submitted by North County Jim on November 21, 2006 - 1:42pm.

Thanks very much sdr.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 27, 2006 - 12:22pm.

211 and counting. The bleeding slowed down this week. Total SD County listings for attached and detached properties are down to 18,070.

In the submarket I track very closely inventory is falling and pending are rising. The inventory and pending numbers are very similar this year vs exactly 1 year ago. The market is pretty much where it was one year ago so there really hasnt been a major meltdown yet. The ratio of actives to pendings has gone from a high of 6 around Labor Day to 3.5 which is where it stood last Nov 28th. The price decline has happened in a pretty orderly fashion in my area with the fluff that was piled on in early 2004 rapidly evaporating. I expect the pace of declines to slow from here on out but don't pretend to have all the answers. That and $4 will get you a Cafe Mocha @ Starbucks.

Submitted by rockclimber on November 27, 2006 - 3:53pm.

I took the liberty of starting a chart of sdr's data contained in this thread.

sdr's data 11-27

Submitted by powayseller on November 27, 2006 - 8:04pm.

December closing are always higher than November closings. Chart will be on my website. I don't know why.... Any thoughts sdr?

Submitted by KingKong on November 27, 2006 - 9:58pm.

PS,

What's your web site address? I would be very interested in reading them :)

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