The Optimism Fades...

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 13, 2006 - 2:52pm

As if on cue (given the housing market report's discussion of an imminent shift in sentiment), the Union-Tribune has released an article with the gloomy title "San Diego County home prices take a tumble."

I believe we'll be seeing a lot more headlines like this in the future...

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Submitted by sunsetbeachguy2 on June 13, 2006 - 6:41pm.

Rich:

 Getting that real job has cut into your response times.  :)

 It has been on Ben's most of the day.

 FWIW:

 I have two relatives in the HVAC buinsess in SD.

 One has been out of work for 4 months.

The other has been working intermittently for 4 months.

 One is in public works the other residential.

They are both in belt tightening/alternative career exploring modes.

Submitted by powayseller on June 13, 2006 - 8:29pm.

I'm not sure if you were joking or not,but I hope that people will lay off Rich. This is the second comment about him quitting or being slow to respond. The piggington site is something Rich does on the side, after work. He has a FT job as a software engineer, writes weekly columns for the Voice, analyzes Dataquick reports to post his monthly report, posts every 2 - 3 days with a story, maintains this site, responds to e-mails, and now is starting a new business. This guy is a hard worker, and while his articles in the last few weeks are shorter, he is still dedicated to this blog. Let's cut him some slack while he gets his new job up and running.

Submitted by powayseller on June 13, 2006 - 8:38pm.

The HVAC comment was interesting. I just had 4 guys out here to give me an estimate on installing an A/C. Most came out within a couple days, and all were available to do the work within one week. This seems a departure from last year, when it was hard to get someone to call you back, and you had to wait for weeks to get the work done.

Same for fence work: quick to come for estimates, available now to do the job.

Submitted by peterh on June 14, 2006 - 8:02am.

Not quite yet negative, although the foundations are starting to shake, no pun intended. Wait until we have both single family resales and the overall median go negative for a few months in a row. Panic will set in and the downward spiral will begin in earnest. Then it will be anyone's guess as to how deep and for how long the correction will go. I'm betting on 50% nominal from peak. Robert Campbell seems to think 40%. Rich is a maybe on 25%. Maybe we should get a pool going?

Submitted by Carlsbadliving on June 14, 2006 - 8:24am.

Powayseller, as a renter why are you having to deal with A/C guys, fence installers, etc? One of the bonuses of renting that you ALWAYS mention is that you don't have to deal with all that stuff. Is the homeowner having work done and you're just helping out?

Submitted by Bugs on June 14, 2006 - 12:06pm.

I seem to recall a prior comment she made about getting her landlord to install a new A/C unit. Somebody has to be at the house to let the HVAC guys in.

Submitted by CAwireman on June 14, 2006 - 12:28pm.

Yep, did note that resale SFH and condo's were however up.

In the resale category, the median price of houses and other single-family homes rose by $14,500 from April to May to stand at $569,500, while the median price of condos increased by $2,000 to $397,000.

What a ride this has been and continues to be. I'm a prior owner of a condo up in LA approx 10 years ago and was lucky enough to see its value drop 18% while I owned it. So, despite my wife's insistance that we buy as soon as possible, I'm looking at as much data as I can and being as patient as I can before jumping in again.

It will be quite a tough sell to convince my wife that we should wait 3 to 5 years, but with the info from this forum, I might have a shot at it....

Thanks Rich

Submitted by sunsetbeachguy2 on June 14, 2006 - 9:01pm.

Rich:

I wasn't giving you a hard time.

I thought the emoticon covered it, but if I post anymore I will make it even more obvious.

I have arrived at the conclusion that intelligent discussion of the RE bubble amongst laypeople is impossible.

I have been taking a beating at OCR's RE blog.  Bulls get to flame away and bears get edited out, when making factual and accurate points about RE perma-bulls tactics.

There is a backlash against the bears and the moderator is allowing bulls to flame away.

I might be over the bubble blogs, just put RE discussions and thoughts on the shelf until late 2007.

Submitted by sunsetbeachguy2 on June 14, 2006 - 10:44pm.

Thanks and yes, I can't even post suggestions that ideas and concepts be debated rather than personalities and name-calling.

It seems like the general population can't discuss housing valuations/overvaluations without it being perceived as an attack on their persona/ego.

I guess that I am not cut out for interacting with the public. 

Sheep are raised to be shorn and slaughtered and that is sad, when humans adopt that role.  That reminds me of what Einstein said, "He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would fully suffice..."

An interesting topic would be to interview a slew of behavioral finance professors and get their take on the psychological dimensions of it, hell I'd even settle for a psychologist's take on this particular mania.

The bust will take care of itself with or without my blogging presence. Either most people get 100% raises or housing deflates and some other asset class inflates.

Or I would enjoy a deathmatch UFC style in the cage.  I would love to nearly strangle a perma-bull with a couple of pre-con flips and couple of negative cashflow homes.

Rich: Thanks for your website and the best evisceration of the mindless drivel that passes for bullish RE commentary.

Submitted by powayseller on June 15, 2006 - 5:53am.

sunsetbeachguy, although things appear a little more civil on this blog, I too am called names simply for my views. Just realize that they do it because they are threatened by our ideas. But their words cannot save them from what's to come. Just let them be. Live and let live, right?

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