The Dumb Money

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 20, 2006 - 8:45pm

One argument I hear a lot is that foreign demand for local real estate has grown substantially in recent years, and that such foreign demand will be supportive of prices in the future.

Unfortunately, this argument puts the cart squarely in front of the horse. Investors from other countries are well known to be the very last participants to arrive at the scene of a financial bubble. They are the last to hear about all the riches to be made, the last to buy in, and the last to realize that the party is over.

read more at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by Daniel on December 21, 2006 - 10:44am.

Fine work, Rich. And a personal anecdote: an overseas acquintance of mine was raving about "tech stocks" in late 1999. He was inquiring about how he could open a brokerage account in the US. Luckily for him, he ended up not following through with his bright idea.

Needless to say, last summer he asked me about buying a condo in San Diego...

Submitted by jg on December 21, 2006 - 8:31pm.

Wow! What a hilarious lagging correlation! Fine work, sir!

Submitted by guy1 on December 22, 2006 - 4:37pm.

Hey,
Love you guys, still hanging on to the hope of the great decline. Month after month I check in with your chit chat and all I see is all talk and no declines. The math is great, but where are the great declines. Do you honestly believe the fed is going to let the housing market crash to smitherines. Rates are even lower, why, the Fed does not want the resets to kill everyone. By all means they should be pushing the long rate up to save the dollar, but instead they are sitting their playing a balancing act. Somethings going to give: housing or the dollar. I'll bet they throw the dollar to the sacrificial lamb first. Just a thought.

Submitted by pencilneck on December 23, 2006 - 11:11am.

Yes, this is a very good point guy1

But a drop in the dollar does not rule out a drop in housing. If the value of the dollar drops by 30% and the price of housing stays flat in terms of dollars, hasn't the house still lost 30% of its value?

I think we will see a great decline in housing, one way or another. But you're absolutely right that none of us know exactly how it will play out.

Great chart Rich! Thanks for all your hard work and happy holidays to everyone!

Submitted by guy1 on December 23, 2006 - 5:00pm.

Pencil,

If the dollar drops 30%, then the only beneficiary is foreign currency. To you the house is still at 100%.

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