San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
The Bulls Strike Back
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 23, 2006 - 10:19pm
"Hold off on that panic attack," suggests a piece in today's LA Times. The implication of the article's title and opening-paragraph reference to Chicken Little suggests that those who expect a housing price decline are simply being emotional.
The article proceeds to trot out the usual suspects for this week's round of "permanently high plateau"-style nonsense. There is a new tack, however. While acknowledging the signs of trouble in San Diego, the article attempts to distance Los Angeles and the rest of Southern California from our fine city:
"Peculiar?" What seems peculiar to me is the idea that overbuilding of downtown condos could somehow be responsible for a decline in overall sales volume. Aside from the absurd idea that increased supply would cause a decrease in demand, the fact is that downtown is far too small to have any measurable effect on countywide stats. (To put this argument in perspective: ziprealty.com shows 759 homes listed downtown versus over 20,000 listings countywide).
Have a look at some graphs I put together late in 2005:
Here's something else peculiar: looking at the above graphs and somehow thinking that whatever has gone on in San Diego over the past several years is fundamentally different than what's happened in Los Angeles.
And perhaps most peculiar of all is the idea that analysts from the "this time (and, more recently, this place) is different" school of thought should be taken seriously, while the people who actually look at the data to understand what's going on should be dismissed as overly emotional.
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