Hello, friends. A few things of interest this month.
Nominal prices and monthly payments have notched new highs, and even adjusting for inflation they are awfully close to the 2022 high points:
And per the title, while inventory and sales are both far lower than the pre-COVID 5 year average (dotted line), the ratio between the two is not all that far from normal.
This ratio — months of inventory — has been a pretty good indicator of near-term price pressure:
It’s still at levels that have historically been positive for prices (except in 2022), but the move towards normal may presage some breathing room for buyers.
More graphs below…
A years of persistent soaring inflation it appears the battle has been won! We now have deflation using my surrogate monetary benchmark! For several years I have seen my $7 El Pueblo Super Breakfast burrito rise in price to $13 but today I saw relief has arrived! While it is still $13 it now comes with a 12 oz glass of OJ that has gotta be worth $3. You heard it here first. Deflation has arrived