Survey on Out migration

User Forum Topic
Submitted by powayseller on August 25, 2006 - 10:15pm

The silly news coming from the media and even SANDAG is not borne out by my experience. As I go about my daily business, I've started asking people, "How many people do you know who've left San Diego?" The answer is anywhere between 1 to 15.

Could you guys take a survey of people you know, or anyone you run into, and ask them, "How many people do you know who moved to San Diego in the last few months.... who moved out of San Diego in the last few months?"

Then post your answers like this
IN x
Out y
Comments:

Submitted by JES on August 26, 2006 - 12:48pm.

Poway, I don't have any friends because I sit on this web site all day. Just kidding:) I don't have numbers, but do have a few comments. We have relatives who are both middle income college graduates (husband and wife) and they left San Diego 3 years ago. They wanted to come back last year, but decided not to because of the cost of living. Better yet, my wife and I flew to Denver to look at houses last year. Sat next to another young couple at the airport and I noticed that they also had homes magazines and flyers and were gleeful. Turned out that these two college graduate consultants just bought a house in the hills outside of Colorado Springs! There we were, by chance encounter, two young couples fed up with San Diego home prices looking to relocate! If this continues, San Diego will be the city of the landed, wealthy upper classes living amongst mostly poor recent immigrants. The middle classes who form the backbone of a society are fleeing, including lower to upper middle class immigrant families!

Submitted by lindismith on August 26, 2006 - 1:40pm.

In: 2
Out:4

I know one couple who moved out in 2003, to Oregon. But they hated the rain, and came back this year. They made a killing on their house when they sold, and are now renting, waiting for the market to go down further.
The other couple moved to Phoenix. They hate the heat, and want to come back. They bought and can't sell. Their house has been on the market 5-6 months.
Both couples moved in 2003, but the couple going to Oregon was about 6 months ahead. Their timing proved to be very lucky. I suspect the couple who moved to Phoenix may just end up staying there if they can't get what they want for their house.

Submitted by PerryChase on August 30, 2006 - 6:49pm.

In: 0
Out: 4

I talked to 2 elderly couples friends who are retiring. They are selling and moving away. Unfortunately, they haven't sold yet and are prepping their homes for sale.

One couple's house is high on top of a hill and would have commanded $800,000 at the peak. But the husband is a tinkerer so he's got all kinds of junk to get rid of before their house is presentable for showing. They've been working on it for 6 months already.

The other couple just decided to retire and move. They'll be putting their house on the market soon. They also have clutter to remove.

I'm afraid that both couples will be chasing the market all the way down and they'll have to adjust their retirement plans. They expect to get top dollar for their houses.

My feeling is that buyers don't have much tolerance for messy occupied houses.

I didn't have the heart to give them a speech on the real estate bubble. I just wished them the best.

Submitted by salo_t on August 30, 2006 - 7:03pm.

IN 2
OUT 3

I know three people from my job that have left for Arizona in the last year and a half and two people that are moving to SD next year.

Submitted by kagster on August 31, 2006 - 12:26am.

We've moved to TN about two months now. Got here in the summer and it sure it humid, but the temperature has dropped to the mid 80s.

We went to Costco in Brentwood, TN to get new tires and I showed my ID to the cashier. He said "I know at least one person from California every month".

In SD alone I know of at least 20 families who moved to Arizona, the midwest or the east coast.

We'll probably head back to SD when the housing price is right. We're contemplating buying in Brentwood, TN because the prices are like SD but you get a bigger house. 4000 sq ft homes are in the mid $600K.

From 2004 to now the prices has jumped from the mid 400s to 800s in some area. I dont' know if this is another bubble. We'll see.

Submitted by carlislematthew on August 31, 2006 - 3:37am.

IN 2
OUT 0

My wife and I just got here, so we don't know anyone that's leaving! What I *can* say is that I have some friends in LA that are looking to move down here, and I have another friend in WA that is also looking to move here.

San Diego is a nice area to live in, and everyone knows it. If only the business climate was more friendly, but that's a topic for another post...

Submitted by carlislematthew on August 31, 2006 - 3:39am.

IN 2
OUT 0

My wife and I just got here, so we don't know anyone that's leaving! What I *can* say is that I have some friends in LA that are looking to move down here, and I have another friend in WA that is also looking to move here.

San Diego is a nice area to live in, and everyone knows it. If only the business climate was more friendly, but that's a topic for another post...

Submitted by ocrenter on August 31, 2006 - 7:30am.

In 14
Out 0

we just moved from OC, after my friend moved his family in from LA. two of my colleagues just moved from the Bay Area and DC to here. Counting all the kids, that's 14. We are all high paying professionals. All renting, all waiting for the crash.

Submitted by JES on August 31, 2006 - 7:51am.

We really need to get a handle the trends here through some hard ststistics. San Diego job growth was nearly 0 last quarter, but then I am also seeing so many examples like the above poster who moved here from the OC and knows alot of professionals who are moving here. I have seen that as well, and I also know that the high tech sector 'appears' to be booming.

That's just it though, what are the numbers and how can I prove it? What was the total job loss/gain for the biotech industry last year? For wireless telecom? Was there a significant change in the population of the county with bachelor degrees? With engineering degrees? What was the composition of those who migrated here? These aer the stats that we really need to know.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 31, 2006 - 8:00am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Don't know anyone moving here (besides me) I am a sofware engineer from L.A. (still work in L.A. will buy in SD or Ventura what ever crashes first). I own in Temecula (bought in 2002 will not sell), My wife and I drive around looking at open houses in SD (as a hobby, I know weird). I see a lot of sellers planning to move out of state (same in OC as well).

See (in the last two years) a lot of empty houses 50% it seems of open houses.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 31, 2006 - 9:37am.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Just My two cents as well,

I think there is no end to demand, just the price needs to be reasonable, the faster we get back to 2003 (if and when it occurs) prices the better it will be for everyone, then it can move up at 5% a year and everone will be happy, Realtors will sell again, people will be able to buy (and eat too), Employers will attract workers etc ....

If it is a long slow decline, it will help no one.

Submitted by ocrenter on September 1, 2006 - 7:11am.

jes, I should qualify my count by saying the profession me and my colleagues are in allow us to move anywhere we want, we are not tied to say, Silicon Valley for tech or OC for finance.

therefore, it is very reasonable to move away from locations where condo living are all we can afford. that's the driving force which prompted the move away from OC/LA.

that said, I truly believe the credit bubble will be this market's undoing, nothing else. in this line of work we interact with a lot of working class and minimally skilled folks, and these guys ALL bought homes these last few years, without exception. I also get exposed to a lot of 'chatters' and they range from 'we can't pay our mortgage' to 'we are panicking because we have two mortgages now because we can't sell the old home'.

there are a lot of otherwise hard working folks with steady income that got greedy because of what was going on with real estate this last few years. instead of the steady middle class life they were in, they saw how they could all become mini-Trumps. a lot of lives will be ruined, I can already see it happening. The desperation is in the air.

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