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Submitted by moneymaker on August 31, 2018 - 8:11am

It's tempting to buy Tesla at <$300 but they pay no dividend, so I think I'll stick to Ford and ATT who both pay a dividend around 6%, my problem is it is better to hold a stock for over a year as far as taxes go, but I've never been able to do it yet.

Submitted by flu on August 31, 2018 - 8:20am.

ford was just downgraded 1 level above junk status. good luck.

Submitted by flu on August 31, 2018 - 10:06am.

Speaking for Ford, I think Ford won't make it.

They changed their business strategy in the U.S. so that in the U.S., Ford will only make trucks and SUVs. They are taking on considerable debt to retool factories here to build more trucks and SUVs.

Ford's plan was to move sedan/car production out of the US and import them back to the U.S. However, now that Trump is imposing import tarriffs, Ford just announced they won't be doing this..

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos...

If gas prices keep going up, and a recession hits the U.S., American consumers are likely to switch back to smaller, more fuel efficient cars. Ford won't have the correct product portfolio to sell to American consumers, and they won't be able to quickly re-tool to make small cars in the U.S.

My 2 cents

Submitted by plm on August 31, 2018 - 1:17pm.

Why do people like to invest in dividend stocks? There is a much higher return with growth stocks.

I'm over 90 percent invested in growth stocks. I think it is supposed to be around 30 percent for a balanced portfolio but I don't see why not invest in the stocks that make the most money.

Submitted by moneymaker on August 31, 2018 - 4:41pm.

A growth stock is fine if you are young or like to day trade or invest in pyramid schemes. For those of us that have been around a while we like companies that actually make money and pay a dividend. During this current boom cycle I can see the attraction of growth stocks but the party will eventually end! I realize that when the bust comes it will affect all stocks but I'm just using a little of my extra money and don't depend on my stock picks for a living. I'm always amazed to see Apple go up and up and up and yes they do make real money and have a surplus along with their 114.6 Billion in debt. They do pay a small dividend, currently 1.3%

Submitted by moneymaker on August 31, 2018 - 4:43pm.

flu you are right and it scares me sometimes, but every car company is doing the same thing by building plants outside the country. I hope the CEO of Ford calls me soon as they seem to need some guidance.

Submitted by flu on September 4, 2018 - 10:07am.

I admit... I do enjoy watching AMD short sellers get totally burned bigtime the past couple of months...Time to take some money off the table and laugh all the way to the bank at their expense. Especially, now it's approaching $28. Hopefully, a good quarterly report will slaughter whatever is left of AMD shorts.

Submitted by plm on September 4, 2018 - 12:51pm.

Wow 11 percent in one day, congrats on AMD. Was thinking of buying AMD myself last week but thought it was too high. Also got burned twice in the past losing money on AMD so didn't want to get burned a third time.

Seems to me risky growth stocks are a better investment than dividend stocks. At least until the market crashes.

Submitted by flu on September 4, 2018 - 7:00pm.

Moneymaker. 3 things I plan on doing....

1. I'm reducing my exposure to international funds, particular ones that are in Asia.
I think emerging markets are having issues, and the international indexes have done well for the past few years. Nothing lasts forever, so my I'm reducing my allocation from roughly 30% to about 15%... Part of that will be moved into one of them "Target 2030 Blend Funds", part of that will be held in a 2.5% money market account for the time being until I figure out what to do.

2. I'm trying to reduce the number of stocks i still hold in my after tax trading account.

3. I am selling one property and going to be adding some cash to probably do a 1031 exchange to a slightly larger place in a better location that rents better. Maybe Carlsbad... Don't know exactly yet.

In summary, I'm trying to reduce my level of risk as I get closer to early retirement I hope. we shall see

AMD was a simple being lucky like a broken clock twice a day....I'll stay in to at least year 2020, since I already sold something to cover my initial costs + a little extra. So anything else extra at this point is pure profit....Contemplating selling all my 1/18/2019 $12 calls and adding more 1/17/2020 $15 calls. It's roughly $1.50 price difference, but gets me one extra year to expiration, and at the current stock price, both contracts move almost $1 per share per $1 actual stock price increase...Doing so will allow me to pick up an additional 20 contracts without adding any more money to the pot, and extends the expiration by 1 year.

Submitted by flu on September 5, 2018 - 6:55am.

another upgrade. uh oh.

Submitted by moneymaker on September 5, 2018 - 7:45am.

Glad I didn't buy Tesla, looks bad for them right now. I might pick up some Ford if it gets down to 9.2 though.

Submitted by flu on September 11, 2018 - 11:16am.

The good news keeps coming out of Intel....(for AMD, lol)

https://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/new...

So says Digitimes, which reports that Intel is struggling meet capacity in-house, likely caused by the firm's delay in advancing to 10nm which has placed further pressure on its 14nm production lines. The firm's overall 14nm chip supply fall short of demand by as much as 50 per cent, according to the report.

More major fvckups at Intel please. Hire another incompetent CEO please.

Submitted by Myriad on September 11, 2018 - 2:45pm.

A hot stock is always awesome until it's not or the market takes out the whole sector.

INTC has been good for the past few years. Probably not for the next year or so. I guess investing in NVDA, MU, AMD would have provided a better return in the past few years. Probably I'm too conservative and worried about getting burned by corporate risk - a lower P/E and better cash flow mitigates some of this.

Dividends are great too (it's a different investment strategy), but chasing yields has other problems such as companies with high debt (AT&T), risk of dividend cut, and opportunity risk.

Submitted by flu on September 11, 2018 - 3:12pm.

I think this has less to do with AMD being a "hot stock" and has a lot more to do with how shitty Intel has been excuting for the past few years and being sort of caught with their pants down.

When AMD was a $2.50 stock and almost dead with a crappy product, that was speculation.

When Lisa Su joined and the Ryzen architecture came up that became less speculation.

When Intel delayed their 10nm the third time that was less speculation...

When Spectre and Meltdown hit intel and only a software patch can be made, that was less speculation (and funny as hell)...

When Intel is still stuck on 14nm and now is having production issues and has to outsource to TSM, that's a big deal. It means,Intel is capacity constraint....and likely their 10nm is delayed further.

When Intel server chips are not going to ship on 10nm until 2020 and AMD will be shipping on 7nm with TSM later this year, that adds to a growing list of fckups that is hysterical.

Perhaps because I am a geek and follow all these things, I am enjoying this slow moving Intel train wreck.

Stock analysts are finance guys that usually.dont understand the tech, so I think it's pretty funny most of them have written off AMD until recently... And hedge funds and investment groups listened to them and (gasp) went long on Intel in the 50ies or (even more funny) went short on AMD when it was a single digit... This isn't an AMD short sellers short squeeze, it appears to be more like an AMD short seller's chokehold....
So glad they are getting burned big time in the short term.... ha ha...

We will see what the future holds. please more fvckups, Intel.

Submitted by flu on September 11, 2018 - 3:36pm.

Internal leaks are always good...

Think of this website as piggington for the chip industry....lol.

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/08/30/upda...

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/08/07/inte...

"Intel has no chance in servers and they know it
Updated: Numbers straight from the horses mouth"

If you recall last year, Intel had a “manufacturing day” to tell you all about the glories of their manufacturing process. The official story, now shown to be the lie we told you it was, was that 10nm wasn’t actually late and Intel didn’t fall off the Moore’s law train. Instead they intentionally took a new tact called Hyperscaling which was said to slow down the cadence of shrinks but increase the magnitude of each step. Most of the financial world bought it, the few that didn’t had their microphones taken when they tried to ask pertinent questions. (Note: This is not a joke, the details are in the link above)
If you were cynical or more to the point knew what was actually happening behind the scenes, you would be horrified at the technically legal but still misleading statements given about the state of process technology at Intel. SemiAccurate was the lone voice detailing the problems from the very start, to the delays, and to the final non-admission that things were never going to work. Hyperscaling is BS and was directly contradicted by the very words of the presenters

no one really believes the CEO was fired over a known inappropriate relationship.
...lol....

Submitted by Myriad on September 11, 2018 - 4:33pm.

Semiaccurate seems really negative INTC. Not sure if that's just marketing speak to get more subscribers.

I do believe that Krzanich was probably fired for inadequate response to EYPC. Though at this point INTC has known about AMD aiming for Data Center with a better product for > 2 years. Hard to believe that it will take 4 more years for a response - That's basically 2 generations of processors worth of time.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/12084/epy...
This sounds a little more realistic. "First of all, Intel's benchmarks lend further support to what we already suspected: Intel's Scalable Xeon is better at serving databases for a number of reasons: better data locality (fewer NUMA nodes), better single-threaded performance, and a more "useable" cache. "
"The AMD EPYC has a performance per dollar advantage in webserving and Java servers, for example... he EPYC platform has some catching up to do. Firmware updates and other software updates were necessary to run a hypervisor, and only relatively recent versions of the Linux kernel (February 2017 w/4.10+) have support for the EPYC processor."

I suspect AMD has a free run for 12-18 months. At that point, it would be shocking if INTC didn't have a real response to the EPYC architecture. The only question is how much speculators will run up the shares before then.

Submitted by flu on September 11, 2018 - 11:23pm.

Myriad wrote:
Semiaccurate seems really negative INTC. Not sure if that's just marketing speak to get more subscribers.

I do believe that Krzanich was probably fired for inadequate response to EYPC. Though at this point INTC has known about AMD aiming for Data Center with a better product for > 2 years. Hard to believe that it will take 4 more years for a response - That's basically 2 generations of processors worth of time.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/12084/epy...
This sounds a little more realistic. "First of all, Intel's benchmarks lend further support to what we already suspected: Intel's Scalable Xeon is better at serving databases for a number of reasons: better data locality (fewer NUMA nodes), better single-threaded performance, and a more "useable" cache. "
"The AMD EPYC has a performance per dollar advantage in webserving and Java servers, for example... he EPYC platform has some catching up to do. Firmware updates and other software updates were necessary to run a hypervisor, and only relatively recent versions of the Linux kernel (February 2017 w/4.10+) have support for the EPYC processor."

I suspect AMD has a free run for 12-18 months. At that point, it would be shocking if INTC didn't have a real response to the EPYC architecture. The only question is how much speculators will run up the shares before then.

The issue appears that Intel has lost the process lead to TSM and its continued insistence to get its in house 10nm working. Once its manufacturing was unmatched, now appears to be an anchor. TSM 7nm (which is really closer to 10nm Intel) is already shipping for other customers like qualcomm. Intel 10nm is delayed until closer to end of 2019, that's why they keep updating their 14nm++++++. and now that everything is bottlenecked on 14nm+++ , now they appear to be having capacity issues..

on top of that, apple will be dropping x86 from their laptop lines most likely and switching over to their internal Ax ARM processor. at least that's the plan

It's also interesting most of the performance data coming out of Intel is done without the meltdown or spectre patches running. I think a few weeks ago, Intel's licensing agreement was such that people who used the patches were prohibited from publishing performance numbers....since then, I believe that has changed.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/intel-gags...

Intel 'gags' Linux distros from revealing performance hit from Spectre patches

Submitted by flu on September 18, 2018 - 6:03am.

4th analyst upgrade in a row and a $33 pre market price, I am out, gonna sell all my 2020 $10 and $15 strike call options..... I'm leaving my 2020 $20, $25, and $30 strike contracts alone for the next year... they are all already paid for by the $10 and $15 contract gains. Time put all this in a laddered CD.... Really do appreciate the short sellers that had to cover their short positions... lol.

Submitted by moneymaker on September 18, 2018 - 7:24am.

Nice run flu and you are probably right to cash out as we all know stocks can be volatile, especially if you look at the historical graph of AMD.

Submitted by flu on September 23, 2018 - 9:14am.

lol.... Intel is moving back to 22nm. one foobar after another.
I doubt AMD will fall that much.... This time it's different. Intel is in deep shet. Semiaccurate is looking more and more reliable as one mess up surfaces after another.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-...

We've confirmed through multiple sources that Intel is fabbing its new H310C chipset on its 22nm process. That means the chip-making giant has taken a step back to an older process for the H310C chipset as it struggles with its ongoing shortage of 14nm processors. Contrary to recent reports, our sources confirmed Intel manufactures these chips and not TSMC (which has been reported in recent weeks), though that could be subject to change in the future.

The shift in Intel's strategy comes as the company struggles with the fallout from its chronically delayed 10nm process. Now the company is dealing with an increasingly loud chorus of reports that Intel's 14nm shortage is now impacting its server, desktop and mobile chips.

The worrying lack of motherboards with the H310 chipset, which began back in March, served as the first sign of an impending shortage of Intel's 14nm silicon. In May, reports surfaced that Intel had suspended production of the chipset, and in July, the company finally acknowledged a much larger issue with 14nm production capacity.

and now this shortage is affecting dram prices.....lol.

Submitted by flu on September 24, 2018 - 9:45am.

looks like the analysts have drank the AMD kool aid and are piling on. Another upgrade today..... lol....

Submitted by flu on September 25, 2018 - 5:55am.

Yes, Intel delays icelake, another foobar....

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/ice-la...

Submitted by moneymaker on September 28, 2018 - 11:54am.

Picked up some Ford stock today! Don't know how long I'll keep it, but maybe it will be the first stock I own for more than a year.

Submitted by flu on October 1, 2018 - 6:56am.

AMD market share at 65% in September. lol...

https://hothardware.com/news/intel-chip-...

The numbers for September are in, and they represent a huge spike in market share for AMD. For the month, AMD's share rose to 65 percent, which is an incredible month-over-month rise. Looking closer at the numbers, we can see that the new 12nm Pinnacle Ridge processors made up the bulk of AMD's sales

Submitted by moneymaker on October 10, 2018 - 5:38am.

Bump!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 10, 2018 - 6:25am.

IMO one more FED rate hike and it's all over.

Submitted by ltsdd on October 10, 2018 - 8:22pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO one more FED rate hike and it's all over.

I am not sure if there's a strong correlation between rate hikes and the drop in the stock markets. I believe this has more to do with (a) the "healthy" correction that we've always talked about (b) affects of ill-advised policies are starting to surface.

My "gut feelings" got me going all cash on sep 24.....my greed got me putting 1/2 back into the market last Friday....argh!!!...you can't win them all.

Submitted by flu on October 10, 2018 - 8:41pm.

I guess I picked a bad time to decide to sell a rental property lol...

Submitted by flu on October 10, 2018 - 8:48pm.

I think in November, we will see a trade tariff settlement before the mid terms... Otherwise, Trump is going to have a big issue with the GOP, or what's left of it...

Submitted by ltsdd on October 10, 2018 - 8:49pm.

flu wrote:
I guess I picked a bad time to decide to sell a rental property lol...

My timetable is to add more rentals to my portfolio starting summer 2020....I'll see how that's going to pan out.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 11, 2018 - 6:59am.

Cramer summed it up fairly well

"Don't fight the Fed"

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/cramers-...

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