The stock market is tanking, we should be happy right????

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Coronita on February 6, 2018 - 8:46am

I remember there were a lot of folks here banking on a large correction to allow them to come out financially ahead versus everyone else....The rational was to sit out the market for a very long time, maybe years, and then when the market correct , jump right in and do much better than everyone else.

I am just curious, now that we have a 1500+ pt Dow plunge, are you folks hoping for that crash now jumping in or are you waiting for an additional 1500pt plunge on top of another 1500pt plunge, just like waiting for real estate to correct 40-50% after previously correcting during the last meltdown.

....or were you a bear that finally capitulated after seeing the markets going up week after week, and jumped right into the market head and toe, when the markets were high..
and are now part of this market correction just like most everyone else?

it just seems like there are no cheerleaders of the market correction here, which is sort of surprising....because I thought this is exactly what some folks wanted... things seem really quite...

What says you spdrun?

Submitted by Coronita on March 7, 2018 - 2:48pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
flu wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
What is long term, Flu? What happens in 10 years when the deficit and Federal debt are unmanageable? I remember the dire predictions of the past.

don't know. the way I figure. I have money now to live and enjoy a reasonable life. rest goes to the future for kid and etc. long term maybe another 10-20years?

by then this country will have fully embraced socialism....good time to move money out of the country probably. I am kidding..... sort of.

This is where those trillion dollar coins come in handy LOL.

Seriously in twenty years I hope our robot overlords will be more like wall-e than terminator LOL.

Inflation anyone?

socialism is great for folks that made it to the top 1% who no longer need to accumulate wealth to be financially independent.....they might pay a little more on taxes on earned income , but if you made it to the top, they are just sitting on a pile of money and not so dependent on earned income. Tax consequences of sitting on a pile of assets is very low....just like in Europe....

on the other hand .... people still earning a wage or income will get taxed to the max to subsidize everyone else not making it....they themselves will have a much harder time to accumulate wealth and become financially independent.....just like in Europe.

if in doubt look at Spain....and talk to Spain highly educated tech workers or doctors who all want to get the fvck out of Spain and go to America or Germany... lol.....

I don't know what is worse. the administration we have now, or the future a lot of us will have once the GOP is virtually non existence and you have 1 party dominate everything.....
it won't matter because there will be so many Americans so disillusioned by how things turned out, they will all want someone to help them out and give up...that's party agnostic.
so I predict we will have a tiny part of the population working to support a much larger population that has given up, and a bunch of fat cat people who don't need to work, sipping their nice Merlot....

meh, not going to be my problem. my earned income days will be long over before then....lol....

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 7, 2018 - 3:21pm.

Flu, if the Republicans are eviscerated it will be like NY, MA, DC, CA, WA, OR, HI, desirable states for the new economy.
Not so bad if I may say so.

Submitted by spdrun on March 7, 2018 - 3:24pm.

flu --

socialism? What about people who just want to work 40 hours a week, have guaranteed time off, not have to worry about budgeting for unexpected health expenses? It's not bad for the average worker-bee who can enjoy life without stressing on things like health insurance and the value of their IRA.

Mobility indices tend to be higher in "socialist" Europe than in the USA. Wonder why that is?

http://www.epi.org/publication/usa-lags-...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 7, 2018 - 3:58pm.

flu wrote:

I don't know what is worse. the administration we have now, or the future a lot of us will have once the GOP is virtually non existence and you have 1 party dominate everything.....

The more likely scenario is FIRST, California being split apart then the nation splitting itself apart with no USA as we now know it existing.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 7, 2018 - 4:56pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

The more likely scenario is FIRST, California being split apart then the nation splitting itself apart with no USA as we now know it existing.

What state of the former union will you stake your future and that of your family in?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 7, 2018 - 5:12pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:

The more likely scenario is FIRST, California being split apart then the nation splitting itself apart with no USA as we now know it existing.

What state of the former union will you stake your future and that of your family in?

Well since I don't really have a political bone in my body (seriously other than economic implications I don't give a C##P about any of the hot point issues), and I am fairly conservative in my own life choices (I really don't care what anyone else does), and mostly since I do not want to move.

I think it will be called "New California" (mostly because I think where I am currently living will be called that in 20-30 years from now).

Submitted by Coronita on March 7, 2018 - 5:34pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
flu wrote:

I don't know what is worse. the administration we have now, or the future a lot of us will have once the GOP is virtually non existence and you have 1 party dominate everything.....

The more likely scenario is FIRST, California being split apart then the nation splitting itself apart with no USA as we now know it existing.

that's a good point....that or Oprah becoming president. lol

Submitted by Coronita on March 7, 2018 - 11:37pm.

spdrun wrote:
flu --

socialism? What about people who just want to work 40 hours a week, have guaranteed time off, not have to worry about budgeting for unexpected health expenses? It's not bad for the average worker-bee who can enjoy life without stressing on things like health insurance and the value of their IRA.

Mobility indices tend to be higher in "socialist" Europe than in the USA. Wonder why that is?

http://www.epi.org/publication/usa-lags-peer-countries-mobility/

ah yes.. work 20 hours get paid. work 60 hours get paid more, and get taxed more so your effective pay is just slightly better...sounds like paradise for you. which reminds me to ask you again...why haven't you moved and permanently relocated to Europe? lol

Submitted by spdrun on March 8, 2018 - 7:55am.

And why would you want to work 60 hours a week with no vaca week-in, week-out? Life is not a test of manliness. I'd rather be in a supported environment where I can be straight average and still be comfy.

Submitted by kev374 on March 8, 2018 - 8:25am.

flu wrote:

Lol. Have you noticed every time you make a post raving about how strong the market is and how it's recovering, the market corrects the next day?

Cohn resigns. Futures way off....

What can I say, perhaps that I was right?? LOL! Markets are screaming back upward. I'm telling you, nothing can stop the markets, too much euphoria, too much WINNING :D

Btw, the Cohn event did not even register with the markets, infact the S&P was a tick up. It may defy logic but it is what it is.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2018 - 8:31am.

spdrun wrote:
And why would you want to work 60 hours a week with no vaca week-in, week-out? Life is not a test of manliness. I'd rather be in a supported environment where I can be straight average and still be comfy.

Because when I am young, I'd like to maximize my earning potential and put as much money to work in investments as early as I can..
so that by the time I am in my 40ies I can enjoy my life and consume the material things I've always wanted to without much financial consequences..... and pretty much give the finger tomanuone who thinks theuly can hold me hostage to a paycheck.. oh wait, I did just that.

versus some others that choose not to live up to their earning potential when they are young, and now camp all day on piggington hoping for a big crash that will propel them forward financially above everyone else similar to buying a lottery ticket ... or complain about how expensive and overpriced everything is...and how everything new is bad and everything old and cheap is good.....and hopey dopey for a change that levels everyone else while magically emerging from a financial apocalypse better than people who frankly are financially more savy and more diligent. But hey, whatever floats the boat.

Submitted by spdrun on March 8, 2018 - 8:37pm.

/

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2018 - 2:19pm.

Just a general observation:

When the market is doing well, people call it investing in the stock market.

When the market is going down people call it gambling in the stock market casino LOL.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2018 - 8:00pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Just a general observation:

When the market is doing well, people call it investing in the stock market.

When the market is going down people call it gambling in the stock market casino LOL.

kinda like Bitcoin.....lol...

Submitted by kev374 on March 9, 2018 - 10:55am.

up up and away, what can I say... you guys were wrong and I was right again. +350 points up today, I was quite prescient I would say.

The market even ignored the 10Y hitting 2.91 at one point, the market has simply entered a mode for the moment that it does not care and it will go up no matter what. It's the euphoria top and can last a while.

Submitted by spdrun on March 9, 2018 - 11:57am.

S&P, DOW, and R2K are still below record highs, only NASDAQ broke records today. Let's see what the song will be after the Fed hikes again next week. Rooting for 10y to break 3%, and maybe 4% by the end of the year. 5-6% 30 year rates will be nice if they push people with ARM HELOCs over the edge.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 9, 2018 - 12:14pm.

Kev, the economic policies suck. But that tax cuts and stock buybacks are holding the market. But for how long?

Submitted by phaster on March 9, 2018 - 6:39pm.

spdrun wrote:
S&P, DOW, and R2K are still below record highs, only NASDAQ broke records today. Let's see what the song will be after the Fed hikes again next week. Rooting for 10y to break 3%, and maybe 4% by the end of the year. 5-6% 30 year rates will be nice if they push people with ARM HELOCs over the edge.

huh,... if the fed pushes up interest rates, that implies the cost(s) to service the existing debt goes up

Quote:

The Cost of Rising Interest Rates

...Last year, the federal government spent $241 billion on net to service roughly $14 trillion of debt – meaning it paid an average interest rate of less than 2 percent.

Dec 14, 2016

http://www.crfb.org/papers/cost-rising-i...

what's the national debt now?

Quote:

$20+ Trillion

https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us

if you're rooting for higher interest rates in the 5-6% range, just to push people with ARM HELOCs over the edge,... perhaps ya might not have fully considered various knock on effects at the BIG level

Quote:

The United States enjoyed the benefits of being able to spend money freely, such as acquiring commodities and consumer products from abroad. In addition, the U.S. foreign-policy goal of containing Communism in the face of the Cold War and decolonization kept the dollars flowing.

www.imf.org/external/np/exr/center/mm/en...

things w/ the US dollar being the global reserve currency seem somewhat comfortable for now (at least for those who have RE and play the stock market)

Quote:

30th Annual ROTH Conference scheduled for March 11-14, 2018 at The Ritz Carlton, Laguna Niguel in Orange County, CA. Following the success of the previous year's events, the ROTH Conference, with close to 550 participating companies and over 4,700 attendees, will feature presentations from public and private companies in a variety of sectors

http://www.roth.com/main/page.aspx?PageI...

...otherwise most others (not invited) might not feel so lucky,... or kinda like they are between a rock and the proverbial a hard place???

its going to be interesting to see what the future brings

just sayin,... hope sheeple don't wise up and lose confidence in the system too soon because this allows some time to put various hedges in place (which hopefully allows one to be somewhat insulated from hardships later on when TSHTF)

Submitted by spdrun on March 9, 2018 - 7:27pm.

If it means that the US will have to re-evaluate their spending and stop deficit spending to finance endless war and incarceration of 1% of the public, here's to higher rates. I'm not a patriot in the sense of needing to live in a country that's top dog militarily. Let the Chinese run the world for a time and go bankrupt playing Whack-a-Mole.

Also, the cost of mass incarceration combined with a recession in 2008-10 was the slap in the nose that got more liberal states to re-evaluate their drug laws, bail system, and general sentencing policies. A good thing -- without a bit of pain, there's no gain as far as social justice.

Submitted by kev374 on March 9, 2018 - 9:05pm.

The 10Y has been hovering around 2.8-2.9 forever, the rise in short term rates are already baked into the psychology of the long term markets so there is a good chance that long term rates will stay low for a while. Long term rates do not necessarily correspond to short term rates so just because the Fed is rising means squat for the 10Y or the 30Y.

What is more likely is that as we are headed to a recession in the next couple of years the yield curve will invert as the short term rates rise.

Submitted by kev374 on March 12, 2018 - 10:21pm.

Market is going to rally hard tomorrow on low inflation reading...

Submitted by kev374 on March 13, 2018 - 9:11am.

kev374 wrote:
Market is going to rally hard tomorrow on low inflation reading...

Was right again... market is unstoppable :)

Submitted by spdrun on March 13, 2018 - 10:48am.

NASDAQ down 35, Dow up a measly 5?

Submitted by Coronita on March 14, 2018 - 8:42am.

kev374 wrote:
Market is going to rally hard tomorrow on low inflation reading...

lol

Submitted by kev374 on March 16, 2018 - 12:22pm.

up 5? Dow is up triple digits past 2 days despite political turmoil. The power of this bull market seems to be unique. It just does not seem to care about anything at all.

Submitted by spdrun on March 16, 2018 - 12:25pm.

Markets actually fell the day I posted that. NASDAQ down today (mildly), DOW still 1500 points off the Feb peak.

Submitted by Coronita on March 19, 2018 - 10:43am.

flu wrote:
kev374 wrote:
Market is going to rally hard tomorrow on low inflation reading...

lol

lol x2

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 19, 2018 - 11:19am.

neither the law nor the stock market is entirely logical.

Submitted by kev374 on March 19, 2018 - 1:35pm.

yeah the market fell today but considering the insane news in past years the market would've probably fallen 10-15% in a single day but instead it's down 1%... this tells me the bull market is alive and well.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on March 20, 2018 - 3:12pm.

kev374 wrote:
yeah the market fell today but considering the insane news in past years the market would've probably fallen 10-15% in a single day but instead it's down 1%... this tells me the bull market is alive and well.

Which bear market has stock falls 10-15% in a single day?

Edit: I got my answer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_la...

The only real bear market for this to happen was in Great Depression. The great dotcom bust doesn't have a single day drop ranked in top 20. That's why I asked the original question because I remember bear market is usually characterized by slow decline instead.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.