Some Stats

User Forum Topic
Submitted by SD Realtor on January 13, 2011 - 4:02pm

Haven't posted stats for awhile. Lets take a look at PQ. I took quarterly sold totals for detached homes in various size increments. I think if I would have gone back a few more quarters the runup of 09 would be more prominent... but I am a bit lazy as this is manually intensive. Need a script.

92129 past 90 days total sp lp mtime
3/2 under 1500 9 430k 443k 48
3/2 1501-1900 26 497k 515k 99
3/2 1901-2300 16 580k 596k 72

92129 7/15 - 10/15 total sp lp mtime
3/2 under 1500 10 431k 447k 61
3/2 1501-1900 22 497k 512k 32
3/2 1901-2300 30 559k 572k 55

92129 4/15 - 7/15 total sp lp mtime
3/2 under 1500 12 446k 458k 53
3/2 1501-1900 24 523k 536k 35
3/2 1901-2300 24 605k 615k 46

92129 1/15 - 4/15 total sp lp mtime
3/2 under 1500 10 451k 458k 23
3/2 1501-1900 18 506k 514k 44
3/2 1901-2300 29 586k 598k 49

92129 (09)10/15-1/15 total sp lp mtime
3/2 under 1500 9 407k 410k 40
3/2 1501-1900 24 505k 519k 35
3/2 1901-2300 24 564k 567k 41

Submitted by Scarlett on January 13, 2011 - 4:23pm.

Thanks a bunch, SD R! I was waiting for these kind of stats. Sounds like we'll have a hard time finding a 4/3 2000sf in PQ at 500K...But I can wait...I think the prices are going to continue to drop.

Submitted by newbee on January 13, 2011 - 5:47pm.

SDrealtor,
Could you please explain the terms there for me.
What does sp,lp and mtime mean?
(Is it selling price, low price and mean time on market?)

What is the units of mtime?

Submitted by SD Realtor on January 13, 2011 - 6:15pm.

sure newbee...

sp is sold price
lp is list price
mt is market time in days.

Note however that list price is somewhat subjective. It is not the original list price, it is what the home was listed at the time it went into escrow. Also many homes have a price range and so that lp which is list price is (i believe) the high end of the range if indeed a range was used.

At any rate it does not matter to much other then to note that the trend seems to be coming down. Unfortunately we have a way to go before we reach the lows we were seeing at the end of 2008. With that said even at the end of 2008, the lows were still not spectacular by any means.

Submitted by Scarlett on January 13, 2011 - 7:51pm.

How long do you think it will be until we'd see the nominal prices of late 2008- early 2009 (assuming rate stay about the same)? More than 1 year? I am not sure what the lows were then - but if the prices drop 10% at least like many predict for 2011, wouldn't PQ be there in a year?

Submitted by SD Realtor on January 13, 2011 - 8:52pm.

Could be Scarlett. You have two things going for ya right now, first off is that there will be more foreclosures. Second off is that the rates are slowly going up. So is the cost of gas. So is the cost of food. Some people believe everything will be okey dokey and things will take care of themselves. I am not one of them however I do not see things changing in as radical a manner as many of the gloom and doomers.

The biggest problem you face is competition plain and simple. I cannot tell you how many other people want to live in PQ and want a home in the price range and size that you are looking for. Prices did drop down and some good buys were there in 2008 but I pulled a quick stat for closings of q4 of 08 and q1 of 09...

10/15/08 - 1/15/09
under 1500 7 419k 434k 70
1501 - 1900 12 505k 533k 57
1901 - 2300 14 557k 571k 48

1/15/09 - 4/15/09
under 1500 6 403k 404k 76
1501 - 1900 15 497k 531k 52
1901 - 2300 16 566k 586k 43

The problem with the talking heads is that they throw numbers around that are meaningless wiht regards to regional demand. As you know the variability of SD real estate is staggering and PQ is destination for MANY MANY young families for a variety of reasons, mainly being a price point that is barely/almost within reach compared to other I15 corridor locations.

Soooo... I am not sure if you will see a 10% drop in a year IFF rates stay where they are at. Now... if we see rates about 6 or 6.5% then yes there is a good chance you will see a nice sized drop in PQ AFTER rates stay at that level a few months.

Submitted by Scarlett on January 13, 2011 - 9:31pm.

I see...But, wouldn't you expect then the # of days on the market to be much lower with such strong competition? ~50 days seems kinda long. Most recent one is over 90 days!

Submitted by andymajumder on January 13, 2011 - 10:35pm.

SDR...this is very useful, many thanks. Would it be possible to have similar data for 92131. Many thanks.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2011 - 10:53pm.

The market time is skewed by short sales which take a long time to get approved so they so they add many days to the averages even though they get offers in weeks if not days.

Submitted by SD Realtor on January 13, 2011 - 10:55pm.

I agree Scarlett, don't get married to the stats in either direction. Keep sticking to the basics. Stay within your budget and if you see something you like then great. If not time is on your side. I just don't see it happening in the immediate future. Lets see how things look at the end of the summer.

Andy I will do the same thing for 92131 but it may take a day or two.

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