Slowing of China money into real estate?

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Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 2, 2017 - 5:03pm

Wonder what most of you think in regards to this article:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

Do you think the slowing of Chinese money into US real estate will impact SD Real Estate? Is this just a temporary thing, Chinese money will be back in a couple of months? Or maybe Chinese money doesn't matter, CA real estate is still going through the roof?

Opinions?

XBoxBoy

Submitted by Coronita on February 2, 2017 - 6:47pm.

I think that because now we se 85c Bakery and Ding Tai Fung soon to be in UTC, that's a sign...

The cat is out of the bag, and San Diego has caught on.... I think what we'll see is certain pockets in San Diego slowly turn into places like Irvine or Diamond Bar, etc.

Submitted by covidwithlime on February 2, 2017 - 7:00pm.

I hope you're right flu.

Submitted by spdrun on February 2, 2017 - 7:26pm.

I hope flu is wrong -- the market needs a right hook to the jaw from Crashius Cray.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 3, 2017 - 6:48am.

I think SoCal in general is becoming a lot more Asian,

I live out in the boonies and ever since they built a Buddhist temple (or maybe retreat I am not sure) in the area I am seeing a lot more Asian home buyers out here.

It's not really the kind of place I would expect a lot of Asian buyers but I guess what heck do I know.

Submitted by gzz on February 3, 2017 - 2:54pm.

I don't think Chinese money will stop until China is as safe, clean, and secure place to live as the favored overseas destinations. In the mean time, the incomes and savings of the upper and upper middle class will continue to grow 5-10% a year.

Keep in mind that SF Bay, LA, Vancouver and London have all greatly outpaced San Diego's growth. San Diego County is currently 11.1% Asian which is a good critical mass to make overseas Chinese feel comfortable.

Submitted by Coronita on February 3, 2017 - 3:39pm.

Ive noticed also the rich there are trying to GTFO out China before the economy crashes and the ruling party goes after all the rich people.

Submitted by ocrenter on February 3, 2017 - 5:02pm.

flu wrote:
I think that because now we se 85c Bakery and Ding Tai Fung soon to be in UTC, that's a sign...

The cat is out of the bag, and San Diego has caught on.... I think what we'll see is certain pockets in San Diego slowly turn into places like Irvine or Diamond Bar, etc.

I agree.

Once Irvine got the two Ranch 99 markets within 10 minutes of each other, it has never looked back. Ranch 99 is very conservative, so unless they have the numbers to sustain two stores, they would not have made their move. With the new Balboa store and them keeping the old Clairemont Mesa store open, the floodgate now opens...

Submitted by mixxalot on February 3, 2017 - 5:14pm.

Good I want socal real estate prices to plunge to 50% crash!!!! Bring it out so I can buy a nice Solana Del Mar beach home for 200k. That would be so awesome. Then BG and Zika can have their tag team smackdown match on my private beach and I can make a pay per view realtard video.

Submitted by mixxalot on February 3, 2017 - 5:14pm.

I like Zion market way better. Cleaner and just as good.

Submitted by Coronita on February 3, 2017 - 7:25pm.

ocrenter wrote:

Once Irvine got the two Ranch 99 markets within 10 minutes of each other, it has never looked back. Ranch 99 is very conservative, so unless they have the numbers to sustain two stores, they would not have made their move. With the new Balboa store and them keeping the old Clairemont Mesa store open, the floodgate now opens...

There's a reason why they did this. Someone in my circle knows the people that run the place in San Diego.

The two stores exist and the do sort of cannibalize each other's sales. The reason why they did this was if they didn't there was going to be someone else that was going to do it (IE a korean supermarket). And then that would have impacted their sales. So, the thought was to have two locations to minimize another competitor.

Submitted by ocrenter on February 3, 2017 - 11:12pm.

flu wrote:
ocrenter wrote:

Once Irvine got the two Ranch 99 markets within 10 minutes of each other, it has never looked back. Ranch 99 is very conservative, so unless they have the numbers to sustain two stores, they would not have made their move. With the new Balboa store and them keeping the old Clairemont Mesa store open, the floodgate now opens...

There's a reason why they did this. Someone in my circle knows the people that run the place in San Diego.

The two stores exist and the do sort of cannibalize each other's sales. The reason why they did this was if they didn't there was going to be someone else that was going to do it (IE a korean supermarket). And then that would have impacted their sales. So, the thought was to have two locations to minimize another competitor.

A bit too late, they already lost a big chunk of 4S/RB/SR business to H-Mart when they took over the Ralphs over at east end of Mira Mesa.

Submitted by ocrenter on February 7, 2017 - 6:28am.

Nobody knows China better than the only other country within the greater sinosphere, Taiwan. Here's an article reporting escalation of capital flight, this time, complete departure of all capital by Taiwanese investors. A lot of that cash will likely end up in Californian real estate.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/busin...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 7, 2017 - 11:59am.

ocrenter wrote:
Nobody knows China better than the only other country within the greater sinosphere, Taiwan. Here's an article reporting escalation of capital flight, this time, complete departure of all capital by Taiwanese investors. A lot of that cash will likely end up in Californian real estate.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/busin...

A china collapse has been discussed since the late 90s. But has been proven wrong.

I happen to know a lot of Chinese people. They may buy houses in California for their kids to go to school. But then what? They can't get executive jobs here so they get bored to death in America or Australia. When they see stability return, they will be back in China.

Problem with divesting is that you lose connections and the ability to seize opportunities as they happen. People who left in early 2000 lost a decade of money making opportunities in China. That was big money compared the previous decades.

Oftentimes you see wife and kids living abroad with husband staying back to keep a presence.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 7, 2017 - 12:51pm.

Call it a managed economy or what ever, but the China Gov knows it must keep the housing/condo bubble going else instability etc...

Only the Americans are stupid enough to let their market collapse.

You will notice the Canadians and most of Europe did not suffer that etc..

Also you need to remember in China the Gov IS THE BANK.

Anyway IMO.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 7, 2017 - 4:00pm.

One thing about Chinese culture is that they believe in education. Historically, administrators in China were people who passed the rigorous imperial exam system. Now, the threshold is graduation from the best universities in the world.

Chinese technocrats are very knowledgeable and they know what works. I believe china will be able to successfully engineer a shift to a consumer economy. Then they will welcome international immigrants/expats from all over the world as their population ages.

There will be no looking back once China becomes the biggest economy. I'm bullish on China.

Submitted by ocrenter on February 7, 2017 - 8:32pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
One thing about Chinese culture is that they believe in education. Historically, administrators in China were people who passed the rigorous imperial exam system. Now, the threshold is graduation from the best universities in the world.

Chinese technocrats are very knowledgeable and they know what works. I believe china will be able to successfully engineer a shift to a consumer economy. Then they will welcome international immigrants/expats from all over the world as their population ages.

There will be no looking back once China becomes the biggest economy. I'm bullish on China.

We know you are, Brian. You are probably working on getting your properties annexed by the PRC.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 23, 2017 - 9:54pm.

Never sure how much faith to put in various blog posts, but in general Calculated Risk has always struck me as pretty informative. This afternoon he posted on the decline in Chinese real estate investors in LA.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2017/0...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 24, 2017 - 11:13pm.

According to CNBC, Australia is still receiving lots of investments.
I know of a Chinese broker who recently opened an office in Vegas. She's in her 60s, originally from Taiwan and lived for decades in LA. Let me know if you want her name. She has plenty of Chinese clients.

https://youtu.be/0w7mjwp5V40

Interesting stats.
China clearly saved the world economy after the 2008 Great Recession.
In 1980 China was 5% of US GDP. 2005 40%, 2011 80%, now bigger in PPP.
China is the largest wealth creator in the history of the world despite people talking about "fake" money and impending crash for decades.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/12/t...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 3, 2018 - 3:39pm.

I heard that the chinese are investing more in building estate like this high rise Atlanta. I know of some projects in LA and Vegas also.

Within walking to Georgia Tech is a bonus!
https://www.818westmidtown.com/

I love it because they will bring their model of development to our cities and help re-urbanize our city centers. Many downtowns are depressed area which qualify for lower thresholds of investment visas. Something Jared Kushner wanted to use for a Jersey development.

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