San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
sic transit gloria inflationi
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Submitted by gzz on June 16, 2022 - 12:16pm
Retail sales in May: WAY DOWN
Retail inventories: WAY WAY UP (30-40% at stores like Target)
Used Car Prices: Impossible to maintain 40% YoY increases. Some of that crazy runup may have been VC-funded insanity buying by Carvana and Shift, which are spiraling downward towards insolvency
Consumer purchase intention surveys: At deep recession levels.
Wage Pressure: Weak as tech and interest rate sensitive sectors move to layoffs
Wealth Effect: Now in full reverse mode
Energy and basic materials, plus declining skilled work force size, will lead to mild inflationary pressures over the level we saw in 2000-2020, but we'll be back to 2.5-3% inflation very soon IMO.
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