shorting Tesla

User Forum Topic
Submitted by moneymaker on February 1, 2018 - 9:37am

Never shorted a stock before, but if the 1 year expectation is 40 points lower for Tesla, wouldn't a short be a good idea?

Submitted by spdrun on February 1, 2018 - 10:49am.

Depends how irrational the markets are willing to get :)

Submitted by henrysd on February 1, 2018 - 10:06pm.

I am buy and hold guy, never have guts and possibly the skills to successfully short any stock. Telsa is one of bubble stock now, but even if you are right, other people, especially those wall streets traders have to follow you with the same bet for you to make money. Little fish can't fight the big guys. In 2005-2006 time many piggs here already knew about housing market cracks, but how many actually made housing related shorting profits when wall street still liked mortgage lenders? The real shorting opportunity happened in spring 2007 with public traded sub-prime mortgage lenders.

Submitted by moneymaker on February 2, 2018 - 7:47am.

I just figure with the recent rocket problems, car production not meeting earlier estimates and the Powerwall not really being economically feasible yet that Tesla might be ready for a correction.

Submitted by millennial on February 2, 2018 - 11:14am.

Even if you are right. The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.

Submitted by Escoguy on February 3, 2018 - 12:03am.

I shorted amazon back in 2000 successfully but thank God I closed the position after a profit.

Long story short, there are better forums to read about shorting Tesla but while it may look appealing, they have no problems raising funds.

Once they solve the short term production problems, it could well be off to the races.

Apple could also be a buyer for them and only use a small portion of their cash.

Submitted by Hobie on February 3, 2018 - 7:20am.

Tesla and Apple would be a good fit. But I can't see Musk selling. New battery tech will benefit both companies immensely.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 1, 2019 - 5:27pm.

Oh no! Tesla closing their stores.
I want to see them successful. Hope they can get the model 3 onto mass market and economies of scale.

Submitted by moneymaker on March 1, 2019 - 6:59pm.

Honestly I don't even remember making the original post, but looking back looks like Tesla could have been successfully shorted 3 times in last year. Wife got her $1000 deposit back, within a week I think. Would still buy one if the numbers worked but they just don't seem to at the moment. Here's what it would take
1) Solar system making way more electricity than we use
2) Ability to use batteries in car as backup for the house
3) Free parking for the wife at work
4) Free charging
5) A 0% interest loan
6) A 10 year/100K mile warranty
On a related note looks like SDG&E randomly pre selected me to be switched to a TOU plan that would have costed me almost $200 more per year based on last years usage. I called them and opted out.

Submitted by Hatfield on March 1, 2019 - 10:28pm.

Too scared to short and put options don't look all that attractively priced, so I'll sit this one out.

Submitted by flu on March 2, 2019 - 9:21am.

Funny this thread came up because now that they are taking orders for the base model at $35k, I might order one and add a 7th car to my garage.

6250 EV tax credits puts this below $30k before tax license etc... Hyundai sonatas are ringing up near that these days.My 2017 Miata was around that price after s plan racer discount pricing .

I am thankful a lot of people bought into the initial hype and spent close to $50k+ for this car so Tesla can continue to build these base models for those of us that don't want to pay $50k for a car that imho looks very similar to a Mazda 3. Now that the initial teething of a first year production run has settled, it's looking to be compelling for me.

But man, those base model wheels sure are fugly.

Submitted by moneymaker on March 3, 2019 - 6:51pm.

Now in less than 2 weeks there will be an alternative, model Y, an SUV, not sure what the wheels look like. It will cost 10% more and have less range with the same battery, just saying, I'm sure it will be slower too though.

Submitted by outtamojo on March 3, 2019 - 9:36pm.

A lot of people take off the plastic covers on those aero wheels.

Submitted by outtamojo on March 3, 2019 - 9:39pm.

moneymaker wrote:
Now in less than 2 weeks there will be an alternative, model Y, an SUV, not sure what the wheels look like. It will cost 10% more and have less range with the same battery, just saying, I'm sure it will be slower too though.

I cant wait till the porsche ev's come out.

Submitted by flyer on March 4, 2019 - 8:26am.

Will be interested to see if Musk moves forward with a private jet that competes with the Cirrus or Honda (vs. the electric airplane that takes off vertically, which he's mentioned)--both of which represent the smallest private jets made--and both of which are back ordered.

Looks like the demand is there at those price points, for commercial and private use, since both are far more reasonable than most any small Cessna Citation Jet, which has long been the benchmark in that category.

Submitted by flu on March 4, 2019 - 10:27am.

Buying a Porsche SUV is as bad as buying a Porsche with an automatic. Just say no and get a real Porsche

Submitted by flyer on March 4, 2019 - 3:47pm.

Agree.

We can't take anything with us, so might as well enjoy it all while we're here.

Submitted by flu on March 7, 2019 - 12:45pm.

Dealbreaker for me on the Tesla Model 3....

The insurance cost.
With a $500 deductible on collision/comprehensive, it's $1125/6month to insure....

That's actually a few dollars/year less than insuring a Porsche 911s...and I balked on the insurance on the 911s. If I had to choose the two, I'd get the 911s...lol.

Submitted by svelte on May 19, 2019 - 11:22am.

Stock down to $211. Ouch.

Seems like everything is going wrong for Tesla lately.
Fires. Autopilot deaths. Tariffs. Slowing US sales.

I really do think they'll have to be purchased by another company, probably in 2020.

As others have said, an Apple-Tesla tie up seems to be a match made in heaven, but I'm not sure Apple is interested in the auto industry any more.

Submitted by moneymaker on May 20, 2019 - 7:41am.

How much would insurance be if paid cash for $35K Tesla and just got the minimum required by law in CA? If still way up there then would be a deal breaker for me and I can see why Elon is trying to get into the insurance business.

Submitted by flu on May 20, 2019 - 9:52am.

moneymaker wrote:
How much would insurance be if paid cash for $35K Tesla and just got the minimum required by law in CA? If still way up there then would be a deal breaker for me and I can see why Elon is trying to get into the insurance business.

Insurance cost doesn't really change based on whether you finance or outright own....

Musk is probably doing this so it's a one stop purchase / lease ..bundling .

Submitted by spdrun on May 20, 2019 - 10:43am.

Of course insurance cost changes if you don't own -- if you buy for cash, you can drop collision/comprehensive and just carry state minimum liability.

Submitted by flu on May 20, 2019 - 3:18pm.

spdrun wrote:
Of course insurance cost changes if you don't own -- if you buy for cash, you can drop collision/comprehensive and just carry state minimum liability.

Dropping collision and comprehensive on a brand new $40k car is one of the stupidest things one can do.... almost as stupid as carrying only the minimum liability insurance if one has meaningful amount of net worth worth protecting...

No one in their right mind would spend $40k+ on a new car and then simply not get collision and comprhensive. That thought process is only for people use to buying really old beater car that are disposable... (Even in the case of a beater car, it might even make sense to get comp/collision... if you're like me with multiple cars, fully insuring one beater car with $0 deductible comp/collision is an extra $50/year, but for the times you rent a car and you waive the optional insurance, you end up have a $0 deductible on the car rental too IF you were to get into an accident...because your best comp/collision coverage would take effect)

Any financial advisor that suggested that one should drop down to the minimum liability coverage while maintaining a $1million+ net asset portfolio, should fired immediately because he is a moron, especially if one lives in sue happy CA, NY, NJ.

The only reason why one would consider getting mimimum liability coverage is he/she has no money/net worth worth protecting.... If that's the case, there's a high probably that person isn't in the market to buy a $40k car with cash, or if he/she is, it would be an incredibly stupid financial decision... making this discussion about insurance costs pointless.

With most normal people, who find the rational reason for decent insurance coverage, there is practically no difference for identical coverage whether the car is purchased with cash or financed.

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