sequester whining

User Forum Topic
Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 10:01am

Quite tired of the sequester whining.

In the big 10 year picture it is a trivial reduction in spending. However it sets the precedence for moving in the right direction especially with regards to military spending.

Submitted by SK in CV on February 19, 2013 - 10:10am.

It won't be trivial to the two million workers who lose their jobs if it goes into effect.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 10:13am.

Here's hoping! Nice that 50% of the cuts are to our parasite of a military.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 19, 2013 - 10:15am.

Despite what people have been saying here, this is going to hit SD, OC and Ventura counties really hard if this happens.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 10:23am.

Good. Should correct the recent insanity with R.E. prices, though unfortunately foreclosing on military people is hard even if they richly deserve it.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 10:23am.

Good. Should correct the recent insanity with R.E. prices, though unfortunately foreclosing on military people is hard even if they richly deserve it.

Submitted by bearishgurl on February 19, 2013 - 10:47am.

spdrun wrote:
Good. Should correct the recent insanity with R.E. prices, though unfortunately foreclosing on military people is hard even if they richly deserve it.

spdrun, only a small fraction of active-duty enlisted military members currently stationed in SD own their own homes in SD County.

They get a HUGE housing allowance while stationed in SD to help them pay rent and utilities. And there are about a dozen military-owned housing complexes they can choose from if they choose to forego their housing allowance and have all utilities paid.

Retired personnel and officers O-5 and up DO own homes. But has been risky in the last decade for active-duty military of any rank to buy a house in SD, due to likely not being able to recover closing costs upon sale when they recieve their inevitable change-of-station orders. They're almost always upside-down and don't have the wherewithal to deal with the negative cash flow on a rental here should they move away without selling it.

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 10:50am.

It will not wreak havoc on re prices.

sk um... aren't you the one who always points out how much of the budget is spent on military?

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 10:55am.

Seems the r.e. market tone in SoCal has followed the stock market over the last few years. Anyway, here's hoping for the sequester!!!

Submitted by Coronita on February 19, 2013 - 10:56am.

SDR/AN,

Can you please remind me to get the fvck off this blog? It's not helping me get into a better SFH CV home any faster, and I really need to start focusing now...
I really envy folks that have been able to successfully do this...

Thank you...

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 10:57am.

lol.... FLU the market is still outpacing re... you will do fine.

Also no the sequester will not touch san diego re prices at all.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 11:00am.

Of course not, Mr. Permabull. Oh well, it should fvck D.C., if only for a brief period, which also won't necessarily go badly for me.

Submitted by an on February 19, 2013 - 11:00am.

flu wrote:
SDR/AN,

Can you please remind me to get the fvck off this blog? It's not helping me get into a better SFH CV home any faster, and I really need to start focusing now...
I really envy folks that have been able to successfully do this...

Thank you...


Sorry dude, but I can't help you when I can't help myself get off this blog :-).

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 19, 2013 - 11:01am.

Well it may not have much effect on higher end places like CV etc...

But there are a lot of defense contractors who will feel it.
I actually don’t think it will have any effect on active duty, in fact the opposite may be true as I think they will eventually consolidate and there are no plans to get rid of Camp pen (but really eventually this would be a boon for all SoCal if they did).

Submitted by an on February 19, 2013 - 11:01am.

spdrun wrote:
Of course not, Mr. Permabull(s---).

haha, permabull? Really? Maybe you should start readin this blog back in 2005.

Submitted by bearishgurl on February 19, 2013 - 11:02am.

SD Realtor wrote:
...Also no the sequester will not touch san diego re prices at all.

Even if made in a facetious vein, I agree with this statement ...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 19, 2013 - 11:02am.

We will see I think.,

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 11:06am.

Yes once more you are wrong spd...

If you read all my posts of the past I called the downturn correctly and called the recovery correctly. I also called out how the govt would prevent any sort of tsunami. So once again, you are incorrect about me.

Let's see you find any of my posts that have been incorrect about the direction of san diego real estate. Go ahead, you can go back to 2006 to start ok?

You can conveniently keep telling us that no matter what direction any market goes anywhere on the planet, it will ultimately be good for you, we all already know that. You always make it a point to let us know.

*********************

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 11:11am.

Shoveler that is a good point about the contractors. If anything that is where there may be some effect. However at this point inventory is so darned constrained it is really a tough nut to crack. Now we see large reductions at Titan, Viasat, Hughes, SPAWAR then we may see some hikes in inventory. However I think that they will be short lived. The result may be a slowdown in the slope of the price movements however because of how they would be staggered over time I just don't see a substantial change in the way things go. Like you said, we will see how it goes however I don't see this touching places like 4S Ranch in the least.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 11:15am.

SDR -
* If NYC and DC would rise long-term, it would be good for me.
* If NJ (as it is) and SD (as it isn't) decline, and DC declines short-term, it would be good for me. Can't predict anything, but here's hoping nonetheless! Personally, Europe screwing up some more COMBINED with a sequester would be pretty much the ideal short-term scenario for me.

(Not to mention that I'm going to Italy for a few weeks this summer, so a cheap Euro would be nice.)

Submitted by SK in CV on February 19, 2013 - 11:19am.

SD Realtor wrote:
It will not wreak havoc on re prices.

sk um... aren't you the one who always points out how much of the budget is spent on military?

Yeah, I am. But I'm also an economist. So I understand the effects of sudden and drastic cuts to government spending. The US has never avoided a recession in the past when total government spending (fed and states) has been cut as it has been the last 3 years. Somehow we're managing now, but further cuts won't increase the likelihood of further recovery, and the cuts required by the sequester is likely to push the economy into another recession. There's a time and place for everything.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 11:22am.

Here's hoping for a short-term recession/unravelment! Chaos breeds opportunity.

(And we survived similar things in summer 2010, summer-fall 2011 quite well -- created more fear than actual danger.)

Submitted by bearishgurl on February 19, 2013 - 11:23am.

SD Realtor wrote:
Shoveler that is a good point about the contractors. If anything that is where there may be some effect. However at this point inventory is so darned constrained it is really a tough nut to crack. Now we see large reductions at Titan, Viasat, Hughes, SPAWAR then we may see some hikes in inventory. However I think that they will be short lived. The result may be a slowdown in the slope of the price movements however because of how they would be staggered over time I just don't see a substantial change in the way things go. Like you said, we will see how it goes however I don't see this touching places like 4S Ranch in the least.

The longtime workers of these contractors mostly live and own their homes nearby. I think this group likely has their homes paid off or are close to paying them off. If "cutbacks" cause some of them to "retire" early, they will do so and just call it a day. Most likely won't be picking up and selling as their current property taxes are very low.

That's the way its always been in SD.

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 11:44am.

SK I agree with the point you are making however this is not as much a draconian cut as you are making it out to be. I think we all get stuck on semantics a bit to much as well. We are told how low inflation is yet prices for food, fuel and water have been moving higher for several consecutive years and not in a trivial manner. We are told unemployment is at 11%, 8%, 9%... in the aggregate we all know it all still sucks out there and is very challenging. When you and I debated Obamacare in 09 my big peeve was not that we needed reform but that we needed much more time to come up with a program. You agreed but said we needed to pass what we have now because we would never get the political climate to ever pass anything. I feel we are in the same spot now, we will never get the political climate to pass any sort of spending reductions. So just do it now, regardless of the consequences. We will get through it.

Submitted by spdrun on February 19, 2013 - 11:46am.

Yep, would have been cheaper to extend Medicare to middle-income folk and/or go single-payer. But Congress and Obama chose to suck the schweens of the private insurance companies and come up with a mongrel hybrid.

Submitted by Coronita on February 19, 2013 - 12:01pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
lol.... FLU the market is still outpacing re... you will do fine.

Also no the sequester will not touch san diego re prices at all.

My goal is to come up with $1million this year, so the next fricking CarmelV I bid on, i can wipe those smug ass face that other cash buyers have...

Of course, it will be more than that, because of taxes...

Got lotto?

Anyway, I'm considering posting something that politically hijacks a thread so I get my ass self-banned.... Seriously.... coming here is like me being a crack-addict for me...... It's time I break loose...

(end hijack)...

Sequestering sucks. Spend away.

Submitted by an on February 19, 2013 - 12:03pm.

flu wrote:
SD Realtor wrote:
lol.... FLU the market is still outpacing re... you will do fine.

Also no the sequester will not touch san diego re prices at all.

My goal is to come up with $1million this year, so the next fricking CarmelV I bid on, i can wipe those smug ass face that other cash buyers have...

Of course, it will be more than that, because of taxes...

Got lotto?

Anyway, I'm considering posting something that politically hijacks a thread so I get my ass self-banned.... Seriously.... coming here is like me being a crack-addict for me...... It's time I break loose...

You should just PM Rich to delete your account or change your password :-P.

Submitted by EconProf on February 19, 2013 - 12:04pm.

We are seeing a lot of scary claims about how much the sequester will hurt. But just how big is it in our overall federal budget?
It is $85 billion in a budget of $2.5 trillion. That puts it at about three percent of our federal spending.
Since our federal spending has exploded in the past four years, it should be easy to find the low hanging fruit and trim the fat. Instead, we will hear sob stories of cuts that hurt real people and valued programs. Instead of cutting waste, they will create real victims to pull at our heartstrings. And this strategy will probably work--it already is working with many people here.

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 12:05pm.

You make some good coin like that you can really snub CV by moving out of it and renting your CV home out! (passing u the pipe)

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 19, 2013 - 12:07pm.

Well Econ fear worked for iraq war. fear worked for the bailouts and all the qe's. If the govt says it will happen, it must be so!!! I guess on March 1 we add 2 million to the unemployment roll.

Submitted by Coronita on February 19, 2013 - 12:14pm.

AN wrote:
flu wrote:
SD Realtor wrote:
lol.... FLU the market is still outpacing re... you will do fine.

Also no the sequester will not touch san diego re prices at all.

My goal is to come up with $1million this year, so the next fricking CarmelV I bid on, i can wipe those smug ass face that other cash buyers have...

Of course, it will be more than that, because of taxes...

Got lotto?

Anyway, I'm considering posting something that politically hijacks a thread so I get my ass self-banned.... Seriously.... coming here is like me being a crack-addict for me...... It's time I break loose...

You should just PM Rich to delete your account or change your password :-P.

I'm thinking about it....I'm outta control....

Can i give you my password, and you change it for me, and only allow me to post 1 time in month, at most?

I'm sending you a PM...

FLU (crack addict)....sniff...

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