September 2022 housing data: inventory ticks up a bit, prices drop a bit

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 17, 2022 - 7:58pm

I don't have much to add to the title, so I will leave it at that.

Oh actually one thing I want to note: the 30-year mortgage (per FRED) averaged 6.1% in September, so that's what's reflected in the monthly payment related charts. As of last week, the mortgage rate was up to 6.9%. So that's going to put further upward pressure on monthly payments, unless rates drop pretty hard at this point.

OK, carry on. Charts below.































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Submitted by sdrealtor on November 6, 2022 - 5:28pm.

Follow my monitors. Weekly data

You don’t understand how this works then. People hunkering down doesn’t mean everyone. It means more and in this case as the data is showing a lot more.

Owner of rental properties are seeing rents far above what they ever expected. It seems like a daily occurrence I’m talking to someone whose relative owns 2-5 houses here that’s funding a retirement and when they inherit then they plan on the same. Just regular folks that are long time residents.

Last year we had a huge drop in inventory which at the time i said presaged a market that was a powder key about to explode fueled by low rates

Guess what we’ve got this year? Much lower new inventory than last year! Guess what we don’t have this year? Low rates anymore! So we have anemic new listing counts far below what we’ve seen in past years with even more anemic demand. It’s hard to know what will happen but what wont is a market collapse

Submitted by an on November 7, 2022 - 11:59am.

drboom wrote:

As for your other post, people can hunker down for only so long. These arguments for the alleged upward stickiness of real estate prices aren't any more persuasive in 2022 than they were in 2005/6--or the early 90s, for that matter.

Neither 2005 and early 90s saw huge inflation and massive rate increase. Guess when's the last time we saw huge inflation and massive rates increase. Then, let's look at what housing prices did during that time.

drboom wrote:
Just like the stock market, assets are valued based on the sale of other similar assets. If a small fraction of owners decide to bail at the same time, it will represent a large fraction of price movement and will have ripple effects throughout the economy.

Unlike the stock market, with housing, you must live somewhere, and time stops for no one. So, as people get older, they'll move out of their parents' house and must either rent or buy. If you see a collapse in buyers, that means there's an increase in renters or a pent-up future renter because they're still living at home. Why would landlord sell when there's a pent-up demand for rent a rent price keep rising.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 7, 2022 - 4:14pm.

Its so easy to get caught up in a web of negativity. Yes we are in a declining market but armageddon is not upon us here

Submitted by drboom on November 8, 2022 - 1:46pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Follow my monitors. Weekly data

You don’t understand how this works then. People hunkering down doesn’t mean everyone. It means more and in this case as the data is showing a lot more.

I called the bubble before this site was started and I nailed the 2009 bottom within weeks so maybe I do know something. I heard the same arguments back then, and you still haven't presented any evidence.

sdrealtor wrote:
Owner of rental properties are seeing rents far above what they ever expected. It seems like a daily occurrence I’m talking to someone whose relative owns 2-5 houses here that’s funding a retirement and when they inherit then they plan on the same. Just regular folks that are long time residents.

Selection bias: why are they talking to you? The plural of anecdote is not data.

They are getting those rents because we've had $trillions of liquidity pumped into the economy! My own upper middle class family has gotten north of $20k in cash over the last couple of years, and I know a ton of young people who made more on unemployment than they had ever made in their lives.

Now that party is pretty much over, and the investor class I cited will bolt for the exits once they can't get the returns needed to service their highly leveraged properties. (The grandmas and grandpas who own & rent a few houses in my circle of acquaintances tend to be cheap as hell about updating their paid-for properties and seem content to collect the resulting lower rents. YMMV)

Another downward pressure locally is the well-documented net population loss we've seen in the past few years in SD and California generally. It was down by 45,000 from 2019-2021 in SD according to a couple sources I just saw, which is over 1%.

sdrealtor wrote:
Last year we had a huge drop in inventory which at the time i said presaged a market that was a powder key about to explode fueled by low rates

Guess what we’ve got this year? Much lower new inventory than last year! Guess what we don’t have this year? Low rates anymore! So we have anemic new listing counts far below what we’ve seen in past years with even more anemic demand. It’s hard to know what will happen but what wont is a market collapse

With investors, especially the big corporate owners, it doesn't matter how many sell. What matters is what they sell for because they will have to eventually mark their holdings to market.

With retail buyers, it's all about the monthly payment. If you think mortgage rates will magically return to the fairytale land of sub-4% rates anytime soon, I'd like to hear your reasoning. The result is that the monthly payment devoted to principal will be smaller. Add in the layoffs that have already either happened or have been announced and you have the arrows all pointing in the same direction.

Submitted by drboom on November 8, 2022 - 1:48pm.

an wrote:

Unlike the stock market, with housing, you must live somewhere ...

That "somewhere" appears to be Arizona, Texas, etc.

The data is pretty easy to find on this topic so I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader.

Submitted by Pbranding on November 8, 2022 - 2:13pm.

drboom wrote:

I called the bubble before this site was started and I nailed the 2009 bottom within weeks so maybe I do know something. I heard the same arguments back then, and you still haven't presented any evidence.

What are your predictions drboom? I’m all ears. How low and how fast will we bottom?

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 3:26pm.

drboom wrote:
an wrote:

Unlike the stock market, with housing, you must live somewhere ...

That "somewhere" appears to be Arizona, Texas, etc.

The data is pretty easy to find on this topic so I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader.

So, you're predict AZ and TX prices will go up because all the CA owners are selling and all the younger people who are moving out of CA to AZ/TX to buy there?

When and how much?

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 3:29pm.

drboom wrote:

I called the bubble before this site was started and I nailed the 2009 bottom within weeks so maybe I do know something. I heard the same arguments back then, and you still haven't presented any evidence.

2009 was not the bottom where I live. The bottom was around 2011. I bought December 2008 and a model match down the street sold for about 5% less in 2011-2012.

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 3:30pm.

Pbranding wrote:
drboom wrote:

I called the bubble before this site was started and I nailed the 2009 bottom within weeks so maybe I do know something. I heard the same arguments back then, and you still haven't presented any evidence.

What are your predictions drboom? I’m all ears. How low and how fast will we bottom?


I would love to know as well.

Submitted by drboom on November 8, 2022 - 4:07pm.

an wrote:
drboom wrote:

I called the bubble before this site was started and I nailed the 2009 bottom within weeks so maybe I do know something. I heard the same arguments back then, and you still haven't presented any evidence.

2009 was not the bottom where I live. The bottom was around 2011. I bought December 2008 and a model match down the street sold for about 5% less in 2011-2012.

There was indeed a dead cat bounce after 2009 that ended with a near-2009 bottom in 2011, but I'm talking about the bottom for SD County as a whole. Individual deals are always possible.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
--Yogi Berra

Having said that, I do have some things to offer for consideration:
- Sale price to rent ratios always return to historical norms, with some period of "over-correction" below the historical average on the downside.
- Rents will have to come down because the gigantic government handouts are done and we're headed toward a contracting economy. Those who think nominal prices will remain the same while inflation pushes down real prices should consider the decreasing wage pressures resulting from a weak labor market. This will naturally depress house values.
- A good deal of residential real estate has been bought up by investors over the past 10 years. They are equipped and disposed to dump those properties much more rapidly than regular homeowners, and they will be unsentimental about it.

Some data to consider:
- There are about 1,237,000 housing units in San Diego County (US Census Bureau, July 2021)
- Historically, annual sales volume has been around 42,000 "homes" in the last several years, or about 3.4% of total inventory. (Statista, 2022)
- The owner-occupied rate is about 54% (2016-2020, US Census Bureau)

If only a small fraction of that huge landlord group decides to bail at the same time (which is now getting some attention in the financial press--I have been predicting this for years!), they will swamp the market: instead of 4.5k/month of inventory selling into pent-up demand, it could easily be twice that trying to sell into dwindling demand.

Submitted by drboom on November 8, 2022 - 4:22pm.

an wrote:
drboom wrote:
an wrote:

Unlike the stock market, with housing, you must live somewhere ...

That "somewhere" appears to be Arizona, Texas, etc.

The data is pretty easy to find on this topic so I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader.

So, you're predict AZ and TX prices will go up because all the CA owners are selling and all the younger people who are moving out of CA to AZ/TX to buy there?

When and how much?

Presumably they have already seen the price increases. They have been building like crazy, too: Texas had, by my arithmetic, 3.58X as many housing starts per capita compared to California in 2021 (ipropertymanagement.com for starts, Wikipedia for population). Arizona was even higher at 3.78X California.

In absolute terms, Texas had about 15k more starts than net immigration (~185k vs ~170k net immigration), while Arizona lagged (~48k starts vs. ~93k immigration). Texas likely over-built if you assume 2.5 persons per housing unit, while Arizona kept pace and maybe a little more.

California had ~69k starts and *lost* ~367k population in the same year!

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 4:54pm.

drboom wrote:

There was indeed a dead cat bounce after 2009 that ended with a near-2009 bottom in 2011, but I'm talking about the bottom for SD County as a whole. Individual deals are always possible.

County or national bottom is meaningless. We don't buy the county; we buy houses in a particular zip code. Even more specifically, I am only looking at a particular area of a zip code. So, when the county bottom matters less to me than when the zip code bottom. There was no dead cat bounce between 2009-2011. I was following my area very closely and did not see any dead cat bounce.

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 5:01pm.

drboom wrote:
Presumably they have already seen the price increases. They have been building like crazy, too: Texas had, by my arithmetic, 3.58X as many housing starts per capita compared to California in 2021 (ipropertymanagement.com for starts, Wikipedia for population). Arizona was even higher at 3.78X California.

In absolute terms, Texas had about 15k more starts than net immigration (~185k vs ~170k net immigration), while Arizona lagged (~48k starts vs. ~93k immigration). Texas likely over-built if you assume 2.5 persons per housing unit, while Arizona kept pace and maybe a little more.

California had ~69k starts and *lost* ~367k population in the same year!


As they say, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. As for lost in population statistics, who is moving out? Would these people be in any position to buy a house? If these are renters, why has rent gone up when population went down? Econ 101 would say, if you have decreased demand, price will go down.

Submitted by drboom on November 8, 2022 - 5:48pm.

an wrote:
drboom wrote:
Presumably they have already seen the price increases. They have been building like crazy, too: Texas had, by my arithmetic, 3.58X as many housing starts per capita compared to California in 2021 (ipropertymanagement.com for starts, Wikipedia for population). Arizona was even higher at 3.78X California.

In absolute terms, Texas had about 15k more starts than net immigration (~185k vs ~170k net immigration), while Arizona lagged (~48k starts vs. ~93k immigration). Texas likely over-built if you assume 2.5 persons per housing unit, while Arizona kept pace and maybe a little more.

California had ~69k starts and *lost* ~367k population in the same year!


As they say, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. As for lost in population statistics, who is moving out? Would these people be in any position to buy a house? If these are renters, why has rent gone up when population went down? Econ 101 would say, if you have decreased demand, price will go down.

"A couple trillion bucks' worth of windfalls and unemployment benefits the likes of which we have never seen increased the supply of money" is what your Econ 101 professor would comment while he gave you a "D".

As for your shopping preferences, this isn't a microsite devoted to a specific 80 acres of San Diego County so most of us are going to be writing in somewhat more general terms.

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 5:57pm.

drboom wrote:
"A couple trillion bucks' worth of windfalls and unemployment benefits the likes of which we have never seen increased the supply of money" is what your Econ 101 professor would comment while he gave you a "D".
Those trillions didn't disappear in thin air. Also, unemployment benefits stop a long time ago. Why has rent kept on going up after the benefits ended? As for a D, if a professor thinks it's as simple as a two-variable equation, then that professor suck and the D means nothing.

drboom wrote:
As for your shopping preferences, this isn't a microsite devoted to a specific 80 acres of San Diego County so most of us are going to be writing in somewhat more general terms.
Not my shopping preference. The vast majority would not cross shop certain zip codes, much less cross state lines.

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 6:27pm.

drboom wrote:
"A couple trillion bucks' worth of windfalls and unemployment benefits the likes of which we have never seen increased the supply of money" is what your Econ 101 professor would comment while he gave you a "D".
Those trillions didn't disappear in thin air. Also, unemployment benefits stop a long time ago. Why has rent kept on going up after the benefits ended? As for a D, if a professor thinks it's as simple as a two-variable equation, then that professor suck and the D means nothing.

drboom wrote:
As for your shopping preferences, this isn't a microsite devoted to a specific 80 acres of San Diego County so most of us are going to be writing in somewhat more general terms.
Not my shopping preference. The vast majority would not cross shop certain zip codes, much less cross state lines. Bottom line is, you claim you called bottom and I pointed out that you were wrong. So, now you backed tracked and say, no, it was only in general term.

drboom wrote:
Indeed, Rich, thanks for the analysis and the community.

You, along with some of the great people who post here, helped my wife and I navigate the real estate market as we pursued the purchase of our first house. We're newly minted homedebtors, and we owe another debt to all of you.

We will naturally sue you (along with Messrs. Case and Schiller) if the value of our house goes down--I mean, the graphs are pointing up, right? :-P

This was you in December 2009. You sounded a lot less confident than you do now.

Submitted by Pbranding on November 8, 2022 - 6:10pm.

drboom][quote=an][quote=drboom wrote:

Having said that, I do have some things to offer for consideration:
- Sale price to rent ratios always return to historical norms, with some period of "over-correction" below the historical average on the downside.
- Rents will have to come down because the gigantic government handouts are done and we're headed toward a contracting economy. Those who think nominal prices will remain the same while inflation pushes down real prices should consider the decreasing wage pressures resulting from a weak labor market. This will naturally depress house values.
- A good deal of residential real estate has been bought up by investors over the past 10 years. They are equipped and disposed to dump those properties much more rapidly than regular homeowners, and they will be unsentimental about it.

I agree with all this. I think there’s more pain to come. But how low and how fast I won’t venture to guess. I originally guessed a 10-20% drop back in June and most disagreed. Now I’m thinking it will even be worse.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 10, 2022 - 12:00pm.

So things you say you have predicted for years haven’t happened? And now you’re basing your forecast on things you’ve been wrong about, or unsure about but hope will happen?

Still waiting on those predictions and I’m willing to wager on them. I have won every single bet I’ve made on this blog and never collected a single one. The losers always seem to vanish once proven wrong

And not that I’m predicting rates but they dropped 1/2% today

And one more thing. The main reason people leave is because it’s too expensive here. What do you think will happen if it gets less expensive here? Any chance that could cause some of them to come back? Others to come here? No that couldn’t happen

Submitted by drboom on November 10, 2022 - 7:08pm.

an wrote:
Bottom line is, you claim you called bottom and I pointed out that you were wrong. So, now you backed tracked and say, no, it was only in general term.

I'm not backtracking one bit. Go look at the Case-Schiller-based charts on this site, which aren't for a three block section of Golden Hill or whatever, and you will clearly see the bottom of the market in nominal and especially real terms.

an wrote:
drboom wrote:
Indeed, Rich, thanks for the analysis and the community.

You, along with some of the great people who post here, helped my wife and I navigate the real estate market as we pursued the purchase of our first house. We're newly minted homedebtors, and we owe another debt to all of you.

We will naturally sue you (along with Messrs. Case and Schiller) if the value of our house goes down--I mean, the graphs are pointing up, right? :-P

This was you in December 2009. You sounded a lot less confident than you do now.

Nice blast from the past!

My confidence was obviously high enough to buy into the market for 20+% down about 5 months earlier, using money saved over years from wages, not windfall money (and it makes a difference).

The joke about prices going further down was ... a joke. We could already see the market creeping up in December 2009. I didn't try to time the bottom, of course, as we'd made an offer on another house in February 2009 and then had a short sale fall through in April. The prices penciled out, so I got in the market. I felt there was some more downside[1], but that didn't matter as we weren't speculating on this but rather looking for a place to live and raise our kids without going broke. It's been great for both. I never lacked any confidence in my market analysis or actual purchase.

If anything, I was a little smug for (a) getting the joint for $10k under the highest offer due to superior negotiating, and (b) getting 50% of our agent's commission for the same reason. *Then* we got 8 grand back from the gubmint!

I was squawking about a housing bubble in 2003 and more in 04/05 when a delusional RE agent family member was showing us listings for $700k shacks in Encanto with a straight face. The part I got wrong was the timing: I never thought it would go on so long. We rented a cheapish apartment in late '05 and I recall telling our elderly landlord that we were just hunkering down until the housing market crashed, which I figured would start in a year or two at most. I felt like the voice in the wilderness, but I never wavered. I ran across this site a few years later, right about the time people like Peter Schiff (a one-hit wonder for sure!) and Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini were making the news, and I felt pretty validated.

[1] It's easy to forget how we were all waiting for the the other shoe to drop when the tidal wave of ARM resets started to adjust! But the inconceivable happened with ZIRP and all the rest, and the Fed decided to screw all the prudent savers in favor of the irresponsibly leveraged asset "owning" class.

Submitted by an on November 14, 2022 - 3:05pm.

drboom wrote:
I'm not backtracking one bit. Go look at the Case-Schiller-based charts on this site, which aren't for a three block section of Golden Hill or whatever, and you will clearly see the bottom of the market in nominal and especially real terms.

Since you financed your home like the vast majority of the buyers, the bottom was in 2011. Look at Rich's chart for real payment. 2011 was ~5-10% below 2009. Also, we all know Case-Shiller number is delayed by a few months, as Rich pointed out in the past, so the "bottom" you saw in the Case-Schiller index already come and gone by the time you see it on the index.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 15, 2022 - 10:39am.

As someone who did 150 short sales and was very active those years the bottom was most definitely 2011. In 2009 the statistics were essentially all short sales mostly of poor quality. In 2011 lenders were finally capitulating. By 2011 there were more traditional sales going on which is why the nominal numbers in the data might look a tad better. Either way anyone who bought between 09 and 12 hit it out of the park whenever and whatever they bought

Submitted by drboom on November 22, 2022 - 8:42am.

an wrote:
drboom wrote:
I'm not backtracking one bit. Go look at the Case-Schiller-based charts on this site, which aren't for a three block section of Golden Hill or whatever, and you will clearly see the bottom of the market in nominal and especially real terms.

Since you financed your home like the vast majority of the buyers, the bottom was in 2011. Look at Rich's chart for real payment. 2011 was ~5-10% below 2009. Also, we all know Case-Shiller number is delayed by a few months, as Rich pointed out in the past, so the "bottom" you saw in the Case-Schiller index already come and gone by the time you see it on the index.

These things aren't mutually exclusive: like a lot of people, I hit the sales price bottom in mid-2009 and then I re-financed a couple years later. I like big bottoms, I cannot lie.

I'm not claiming the mid-2009 bottom was a once-in-a-lifetime golden opportunity, mind you, and I already said I wasn't trying to time the market in any case.

But the figures are what they are, and from a how-much-money-did-people-sell-their-houses-for perspective (aka health of the market), the buyer's payment doesn't matter.

Submitted by an on November 22, 2022 - 9:44am.

I already disproved you that for the area I was interested in, the bottom for both price and payment was not 2009. Even though I did exactly what you did, I could have saved even more money if I waited until 2011. sdr have data on the ground at the time as well. City statistics only matter to talk about in generality. However, it does not help buyers who try to time the absolute bottom for the area you want to buy in.

Submitted by drboom on November 22, 2022 - 2:29pm.

Let me unpack this in detail so we're on the same page:

an wrote:
I already disproved you that for the area I was interested in, the bottom for both price and payment was not 2009.

You've made some assertions about a specific area, sure, and I guess you and a few dozen others have a long-term interest in it. I and most other people live and work in a larger world, however, so I think you're unduly limiting the discussion.

Quote:
Even though I did exactly what you did, I could have saved even more money if I waited until 2011.

Maybe you could have, and maybe not. All sales unique. But again: the health of the market as it is commonly understood is NOT driven by buyers' payments. We don't get payment appraisals, REITs don't mark payments to market, etc. ... the sales value, estimated or actual, is what matters in this context.

Quote:
sdr have data on the ground at the time as well. City statistics only matter to talk about in generality.

I don't really have time to talk about every house, individually, in San Diego County--do you? It's obvious that there are exceptions to broader trends at the single house or neighborhood level, but you'll be hard pressed to find anyone else to share your narrow geographic interests with.

Quote:
However, it does not help buyers who try to time the absolute bottom for the area you want to buy in.

Timing the market requires a crystal ball. You only know if you achieved it in retrospect.

Bottom line: Sales price is KING. All the lower interest (i.e. payment) rates did in the last several years is allow people to more easily put themselves in a position to be underwater with no way out. Interest rates won't be going back down to where they were anytime soon, and the share of income that can be allocated to housing is fairly inelastic so something has to give.

sdrealtor seems to think people are going to shackle themselves to their houses indefinitely or something, which I find unrealistic.

Submitted by an on November 22, 2022 - 3:30pm.

No one buy a San Diego house. We all buy a specific house. So, while it's fun to use statistics to talk about things in general, it does not help any buyer. Some zip code could have peaked and bottom earlier/later. You used yourself and your own purchase as to why you made the call perfectly in 2009 as the bottom. Care you share your zip code? You do not live in a San Diego house. You live in your house in a specific zip code. So, no you and most other people do not live in a larger world, we all live in our house that we bought in a specific zip code.

As for the health of the market, payment is key because most people buy with a loan. If mortgage payment is drastically below rent, then you'll have a flood of buyers jumping in to save money.

BTW, no one today is under water if they bought it 2+ years ago, so I have no idea what you're talking about. As a matter of fact, if you bought 2+ years ago, you could easily rent out your house for a profit today.

Submitted by an on November 22, 2022 - 3:21pm.

drboom wrote:
Maybe you could have, and maybe not. All sales unique. But again: the health of the market as it is commonly understood is NOT driven by buyers' payments. We don't get payment appraisals, REITs don't mark payments to market, etc. ... the sales value, estimated or actual, is what matters in this context.

Uh, yes, I could have since the house was a few houses down the street on the same side of the street in similar condition.

BTW, show me some data, not statistics. You know what they say about statistics. If you don't understand what median means, then I can't help you.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 22, 2022 - 5:37pm.

Once again you are completely twisting my assertions. I never said every homeowner would shackle themselves to their homes. I said a lot more people would dig and/or hold onto homes longer. So in your larger market theory that doesn’t mean zero inventory it means significantly less inventory. When balanced out against whatever demand is out there less supply naturally keeps prices higher than more supply does. As for the market, bottom, during the downturn, I was doing dozens of short sales all over Southern California, not only did I do them in San Diego, but I did them in various parts of Riverside County, Orange County, San Bernardino, county, LA County and even Ventura county. I had as good a sense of what was going on as anyone, as I was negotiating deals all over every single week. I know when the bottom was, and when lenders were capitulating the most.

Submitted by drboom on November 22, 2022 - 9:47pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Once again you are completely twisting my assertions. I never said every homeowner would shackle themselves to their homes. I said a lot more people would dig and/or hold onto homes longer.

You claim they will do it in such numbers and with enough tenacity that it will put a brake on the market, which I assert would require something like "shackles."

Quote:
So in your larger market theory that doesn’t mean zero inventory it means significantly less inventory. When balanced out against whatever demand is out there less supply naturally keeps prices higher than more supply does.

A) What makes you think this layoff tidal wave is going to generate support for anything close to the prices we have now? People don't actually have to lose their jobs to have an effect on the market: uncertainty breeds caution, and the headlines are full of bad news right now.

B) Because the market is heavily based on comps, all that needs to happen is for some highly leveraged landlords to see rents dropping. They'll cut their losses and reset the bar downward for everyone else--they'd be fools not to. The market will supply the momentum from there as usual.

The days of financial electroshock therapy are over now that we have a Teahadi House all set to obstruct anything the Cadaver-In-Chief might want to do in the way of bailouts, so the economy is going to have to take its long-delayed medicine.

Quote:
As for the market, bottom, during the downturn, I was doing dozens of short sales all over Southern California, not only did I do them in San Diego, but I did them in various parts of Riverside County, Orange County, San Bernardino, county, LA County and even Ventura county. I had as good a sense of what was going on as anyone, as I was negotiating deals all over every single week. I know when the bottom was, and when lenders were capitulating the most.

If you know something Messrs. Case and Schiller don't or didn't, then OK! I'm just reading their processed data as presented by our host.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2022 - 9:03am.

They already have and are doing it in such numbers. Follow my monitors and you’ll see the weekly data. A brake slows a car down it doesn’t always stop it

Unemployment is back near all time lows. If it doubles or even triples 90% will still be employed. We are in a low sales volume environment. People dig in and stay put limiting inventory and those that have to move? Well they have to move!

Landlords have enjoyed skyrocketing rents. A pullback won’t hurt them en masse and they surely don’t want to pay massive capital gains taxes. Real estate is leveraged and tax favored which is why they hold it long term. They would have to die en masse to get step up in basis for large scale liquidation and even so most heirs will hold onto them especially here.

I do know something. That data they use is all self reported less than reliably by real estate agents and those dudes don’t get into what is in the mix they just look at macro data. They sit up in ivory towers.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2022 - 10:22am.

Btw the bigger point here is one of my mantras. As a buyer you want to get in when most of the damage is done and catching the exact bottom isn’t that important. That’s because the upside is so big in a recovery around here. The other part is you want to buy on the way down not the way up. As an entry level buyer you want to buy when others don’t want to in order to be able to compete for the good ones. Once the ship turns upward youre road kill against the big money

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