September 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2014 - 4:17pm
Here's the big picture -- not a lot of movement last month:

Drilling down to some individual graphs, the price per square foot continued in its meandering ways:

The Case-Shiller proxy turned down as the "noise"spike from 4 months back fell out of the moving average.  So I don't make too much of the fact that it declined a bit... basically, this measure seems to indicate very little price movement over the past several months:

Home sales were flat to slightly downward for the month.  Pendings were actually above last year's level, though closed sales are still below (albeit to a much smaller degree than a mere month ago).  I'm not sure why the year-over-year comparison looks so much better for the pendings than the closed sales. 

Inventory was flat for the month.  Total invesntory is pretty close to this time last year, but the second graph shows that there is a lot more active inventory right now than a year ago:

That can be seen even more clearly in this graph showing the divergent trends of active and contingent inventory:

And here's a longer term look at total inventory.  Higher than it's been for 2 years, but still not very high in the grand scheme of things:   

Putting it all together -- flatt-ish inventory plus a slight decline in pending sales -- the months of inventory rose in line with the recent trend.  Again, higher than before, but low-to-middling overall.

All in all, things weren't a whole lot different than the month before, as noted at the outset.

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Submitted by Escoguy on October 22, 2014 - 9:30pm.

Guess a slowly increasing market isn't interesting enough to comment on. Lower interest rates and oil prices should continue to support the uptrend.

Submitted by spdrun on October 24, 2014 - 8:49am.

When does Southern California property ever increase or decrease slowly? Other option is that the market has gone up too far, too quickly, and is topping.

Rates and oil prices are a function of falling demand as much as anything else.

PS - I don't surf much, but this is a wave that I plan to ride if any when it hits SD Co. SURF'S UP, mofos....

Submitted by HopefulBuyer on November 3, 2014 - 2:18pm.

Here's to greater inventory helping to bring the prices down to attainable levels!

I'm looking into the PQ/RB area because of the schools and proximity to work, but even a modest house is $600k and needs work. It sounds counter intuitive but I can understand the drive to get more than you can afford. The reasoning is that you pay so much for a small house that you are left nearly as house poor as you would be in a larger/nicer home.

Submitted by moneymaker on November 21, 2014 - 5:40am.

Banks are not easing mortgage rules, so they say, refi's are down (everyone has already done it) and new home purchases are up slightly. I catch myself being surprised now whenever I see a new housing project, they seem as rare as a snow leopard.

Submitted by spdrun on November 21, 2014 - 7:26pm.

What? There's quite a bit of building going on in San Diego. And NYC for that matter.

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