September 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 19, 2011 - 5:45pm
The median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes was down .2% for single family homes, up .8 percent for attached homes, and up .2% in aggregate in September.  Let's call it flat for the month:

The Case-Shiller proxy, which uses a 3-month rolling average, dropped a notch to its lowest level in over two years:

Here are calendar-aligned versions of the above two graphs to help account for seasonality:

Closed and pending sales were both down for the month, but both are mildly up from a year ago:

Inventory also dropped for the month, but is 11% below last year's level:

Months of inventory climbed to 5.3 months -- up from August but 16% below last year's level:

We'll have to watch to see if that months of inventory figure keeps creeping up, but for now, it's at a fairly neutral level that doesn't imply much in the way of big price swings in the near future.

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Submitted by urbanrealtor on October 20, 2011 - 6:28am.

Last graph:
What categories do you count as inventory?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 20, 2011 - 8:52am.

I have been using active and contingent. This is what I have historically, so to compare apples to apples that's what I use now. FWIW the correlation between price and months of supply has worked pretty well when including both those categories.

I used to do a separate graph showing % contingent (based on your elucidation of that category), but I stopped because % contingent never seemed to change very much.

Submitted by sdduuuude on October 20, 2011 - 9:38am.

What is the diff. between your first chart and the "sold" line in the redfin chart in the right-hand column ?

That is showing the price per sq. ft very close to if not below the last low.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 20, 2011 - 9:39am.

They use a 3 month trailing average... there's would be more akin to my CS proxy.

Submitted by revestor on October 21, 2011 - 5:07am.

Great post. If you are interested in more data like average rent, average rent per square foot, average cash flow, average cap rate for residential properties let us know we would be glad to contribute.

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