San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
September 2009 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2009 - 12:41pm
Some have asked what distinguishes a Data Rodeo from a Chartfest or for that matter the rarely seen Chart Extravaganza. The answer, which I will fabricate as I type this sentence, is that Data Rodeos are reserved for the monthly roundup of resale data, whereas the two alternate names are used for generic chart collections based upon the levels of extravagance and general chartiness contained therein.
I hope that clears everything up.
The rally in San Diego's median price per square foot continued through September, with the ppsf rising 2.2% for detached homes, 5.5% for (much more volatile) condos, and 3.1% for a volume-weighted aggregate.
The aggregate median ppsf has risen 14.5% since its March low.
Here is the plain vanilla median, far less useful for reasons often discussed, but still included here because the MSM makes a big issue of it. Interestingly (ok, not really), the vanilla median has been pretty flat for a few months running.
Here is the projection for the August and September Case-Shiller index values based on the detached home median ppsf.
This is the number we should compare to past bear market rallies in the Case-Shiller index. From this series' April low point, I am estimating that the Case-Shiller index for September will have risen by 8.8%. This is far in excess of any rally during the 1990s bust, the biggest of which was 2.3%.
Sales and Inventory
The supply and demand situation was similar to what we've seen since spring. Sales volume was decent and ran slightly over last year's pace:
...whereas inventory was flat and substantially below last year:
...leading to a very low months-of-inventory figure:
Also, a substantial portion of listed inventory was "reverse-shadow" contingent inventory that isn't really available for sale. The prevalence of contingent inventory has been steadily creeping up since I started tracking it in June. (See this article for an explanation by our own urbanrealtor of what contingent inventory is all about).
This is no typical seasonal bounce; it seems that whatever downward pressure is exerted by unemployment and foreclosure activity is being more than offset by government intervention and more or less reasonable aggregate valuations. There are potential threats down the road -- shadow inventory, rising rates, and the surcease of government intervention leap to mind -- but those all lay in the future, if they are to happen at all. For now, until the evidence shows otherwise, we are in rally mode.
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