Sell

User Forum Topic
Submitted by davelj on June 2, 2020 - 5:27pm

In my view...

You should pretty much sell every risk asset that you can - pretty much. This recent rally is a gift from the market gods to de-risk in the face of financial armageddon.

Amazingly, incredibly, beyond all reason... the S&P500 is down just 10% from it's (significantly overvalued) February all-time high. Despite what's likely to be 15%+ peak-to-trough decline in GDP, 15%+ unemployment, profit decimation, overwhelming corporate and personal bankruptcies, myriad bank failures... and no bullets left in the Fed's gun where rates are concerned... stocks levitate. I would argue that this stock market is the most overvalued US market I've ever seen - possibly including 1999/2000.

And it's all a trade - just like all of the classic sucker rallies. Only the big liquid names are moving and driving the indices higher. No one wants to actually "hold" anything. Everyone thinks they'll be the first ones out the door.

The good news is that the banks are *much* better capitalized than they were going into the Financial Crisis. The bad news is that they're going to need every dime of that capital to stave off a crushing wave of bad commercial and CRE loans. Drive down whatever street near you has a lot of strip malls. I live in Mexico now but I drove down Broadway in Chula Vista the other day and just looked on either side of the street - restaurants, nail/hair salons, small hotels, miscellaneous services and retail... at least 1/3 of these businesses will fail by year-end. They simply do not have the wherewithall to survive. And the others will limp along for years afterward. Virtually all restaurants are fvcked. Even if they can seat using social distancing guidelines, only a small percentage can break even. It could be 18 months before there's a "normal" restaurant business. Hospitality (resorts, hotels, vacation rentals)... fvcked. Total wipeout. Airlines and other human transportation... fvcked. Energy... fvcked. I could go on and on and on. And then think about the employees of all of these businesses... there could be 10 million jobs that simply don't return to the US economy for several years - even after there's a vaccine.

Yeah, there will be a bump in economic activity after we hit bottom and then followed by the vaccine (whenever that becomes available). But that bump will ultimately leave the economy (still) in a pretty big hole and, to add insult to injury, there will be a certain, albeit modest, percentage of folks whose behavior is going to semi-permanently change even after things normalize. They're going out less, traveling less, spending less, saving more. When you have a highly-leveraged tanker like the US economy that grows 2-3% in a good year and all of a sudden you have a modest percentage of folks that change behavior like that... you have a long-term disaster on your hands. As the saying goes, "everything important happens at the margin"... and at the margin, things are going to he11 in a handbasket.

Another piece of good news is that the bank regulators are trying to get ahead of things and using forebearance tools - as opposed to capital tools - to try to right the ship. I think that's smart - they should've done more of that during the Financial Crisis (as opposed to cramming capital down everyone's throat) - but... it's still going to get very, very ugly. There are so many permanently damaged businesses out there - eg, think about all of the commercial real estate and how these owners are going to deal with massive waves of bankrupt leasees. Yes, there are regulatory tools that can help but when you see these being pulled out, you'll know the Powers That Be are panicking. This freight train is going to level pretty much everything in its path - I'll be very surprised if it's not worse than the Financial Crisis.

Drive around your town or city. Look around. Think about the businesses that aren't coming back. Think about the folks whose jobs aren't coming back for a long time. Think about how behavior is going to change even after things begin to normalize. Think about the leverage and how the banks are going to cope with all of this. Think about what this means for corporate profitability - short-term and long-term and then what that means for nosebleed-level stock valuations.

Meanwhile, our fair-haired Nero fiddles while Rome burns.

Discretion is the better part of valor. Sell.

I could be wrong. But I doubt it.

Submitted by svelte on August 29, 2020 - 1:01pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
The old rocker wore his hair too long
Wore his trouser cuffs too tight
Unfashionable to the end drank his ale too light
Death's head belts buckle, yesterday's dreams
The transport caf' prophet of doom
Ringing no change in his double sewn seams
In his post-war babe gloom

+1

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 30, 2020 - 8:45am.

Aqualung, my friend, don't you start away uneasy
You poor old sod.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 30, 2020 - 3:38pm.

Aqualung’ by progressive rockers Jethro Tull gets to the heart of the matter, with singer Ian Anderson calling it a “guilt-ridden song of confusion about how you deal with beggars, [and] the homeless.” Inspired by photos of transient men shown to him by his first wife, Anderson’s ‘Aqualung’ character comes to life in Jethro Tull’s nearly 7-minute epic told from the perspective of a casual passerby who perceives Aqualung as a dirty, depraved pedophile – knowing that it’s likely not true, but needing a ‘valid’ excuse to justify not helping him.

Ian Anderson actually becomes Aqualung in Jethro Tull’s 1978 Madison Square Garden performance, thrashing about onstage and shouting his story to a captivated audience to both entertain and perhaps even hold them accountable for the Aqualungs in their own lives that they’ve refused to acknowledge.

Fun Fact: Anderson’s ex-wife Jennie Franks earned a songwriting credit for ‘Aqualung,’ so she receives half the royalties from the song. She and Anderson divorced in 1974.

Coupled with guitarist Martin Barre’s critically acclaimed guitar solo at 3:41, ‘Aqualung’ makes for a tremendous classic as well as a powerful social commentary – one that really draws you in and refuses to let you turn away!

+ Aqualung Lyrics +
Sitting on a park bench
Eying little girls
With bad intent.
Snot running down his nose
Greasy fingers smearing shabby clothes.
Drying in the cold sun
Watching as the frilly panties run.
Feeling like a dead duck
Spitting out pieces of his broken luck.

Sun streaking cold
An old man wandering lonely.
Taking time
The only way he knows.
Leg hurting bad,
As he bends to pick a dog end
Goes down to a bog to
Warm his feet.

Feeling alone
The army’s up the rode
Salvation a la mode and
A cup of tea.
Aqualung my friend
Don’t start away uneasy
You poor old sod
You see it’s only me.

Do you still remember
December’s foggy freeze
When the ice that
Clings on to your beard is
Screaming agony.
And you snatch your rattling last breaths
With deep-sea diver sounds,
And the flowers bloom like
Madness in the spring.

Sun streaking cold
An old man wandering lonely.
Taking time
The only way he knows.
Leg hurting bad,
As he bends to pick a dog end
Goes down to a bog to
Warm his feet.

Feeling alone
The army’s up the rode
Salvation a la mode and
A cup of tea.
Aqualung my friend
Don’t start away uneasy
You poor old sod
You see it’s only me.

Aqualung my friend
Don’t just start away uneasy
You poor old sod
You see it’s only me.

Sitting on a park bench
Eying little girls
With bad intent.
Snot running down his nose
Greasy fingers smearing shabby clothes.
Drying in the cold sun
Watching as the frilly panties run.
Feeling like a dead duck
Spitting out pieces of his broken luck.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 30, 2020 - 5:40pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Aqualung, my friend, don't you start away uneasy
You poor old sod.

Damn liberal rockers

dog-end
/ˈdôɡ ˌend/
nounINFORMAL•BRITISH
a cigarette butt.
the last and least pleasing part of something.
"the dog-end of a hard day"

ex. the final weeks leading up to the 2020 election were the dog end of Trump's first term.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 30, 2020 - 6:15pm.

You old guys are Living in the Past

Submitted by svelte on August 30, 2020 - 6:32pm.

I lived out in the country when I was 15 and already had a car that I would tinker with in the garage. My grandfather lived about an hour away and sometimes when he visited he would let me drive him around the countryside. Times were different.

Anyway, the only song he ever told me to turn off because he refused to listen to it was Aqualung. So I pulled the 8-track out of the player (yes that long ago). I think he objected to eyeing little girls, I guess I don't blame him that is a pretty putrid thought. Though I do like the rest of the song.

The only song my father objected to? Slow Ride by Foghat. There is one part where the guitars get obnoxiously squeaky and after a long day of work (I was driving him home), that was his limit and HE pulled the 8-track out.

We drove the rest of the way home in silence.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 30, 2020 - 8:45pm.

Is it time to sell yet?

Submitted by svelte on August 31, 2020 - 7:38am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
Is it time to sell yet?

The whole timing the market thing is tough, and in most cases unwise, as Rich has pointed out.

It is nearly impossible to know the top and bottom, and therefore you'll just capture a fraction of the movement.

I like flu's theory that things should be done incrementally and not in one swoop. Maybe move 10% out. Then another 10%. Etc.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 31, 2020 - 1:10pm.

I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

Submitted by svelte on September 2, 2020 - 9:15am.

sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 10:07am.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Guess that one sailed over your heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmPwYhHX_jY

Submitted by svelte on September 2, 2020 - 10:17am.

sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Guess that one sailed over your heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmPwYhHX_jY

ha! Yes it did! I knew the song but never knew the name...and never heard of that album before either...and I thought I knew JT pretty well...

Still interested in what you listen to.

Submitted by Coronita on September 2, 2020 - 10:46am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

I bought Intel shares and AMD put options... Of course after I did that, AMD shot up from 90 to 92. If I kept every call option from 2.50/share, it would have been serious dough.
Sold some at 50ies.
Then some more at 60ies.
Got completely out in mid 70ies.
Watched it go to the 80ies and envious decided to go short the day it hit 90 with put options.

And now it's 92-93...
This sucks. AMD, just as crazy.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 2, 2020 - 11:00am.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Guess that one sailed over your heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmPwYhHX_jY

ha! Yes it did! I knew the song but never knew the name...and never heard of that album before either...and I thought I knew JT pretty well...

Still interested in what you listen to.

I had the living in the past album. Also songs from the wood.

And too old to rock nroll. I recall buying that at a discount. Like 2.99 indtead ouf 4.99. Not selling well

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 2, 2020 - 11:49am.

Coronita wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

I bought Intel shares and AMD put options... Of course after I did that, AMD shot up from 90 to 92. If I kept every call option from 2.50/share, it would have been serious dough.
Sold some at 50ies.
Then some more at 60ies.
Got completely out in mid 70ies.
Watched it go to the 80ies and envious decided to go short the day it hit 90 with put options.

And now it's 92-93...
This sucks. AMD, just as crazy.

Reminds me of 1999, just a relentless march higher at crazy valuations, Well OK maybe most will not end up 0 like 1999 but still just crazy valuations.

But still Investors are sitting on probably the largest pile of cash ever, so there are a lot of investors sitting this out. very interesting times.

Seems a minority of money relentlessly pushing 5 or 6 stocks higher.

Submitted by ltsddd on September 2, 2020 - 12:56pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Coronita wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

I bought Intel shares and AMD put options... Of course after I did that, AMD shot up from 90 to 92. If I kept every call option from 2.50/share, it would have been serious dough.
Sold some at 50ies.
Then some more at 60ies.
Got completely out in mid 70ies.
Watched it go to the 80ies and envious decided to go short the day it hit 90 with put options.

And now it's 92-93...
This sucks. AMD, just as crazy.

Reminds me of 1999, just a relentless march higher at crazy valuations, Well OK maybe most will not end up 0 like 1999 but still just crazy valuations.

But still Investors are sitting on probably the largest pile of cash ever, so there are a lot of investors sitting this out. very interesting times.

Seems a minority of money relentlessly pushing 5 or 6 stocks higher.

Anyone here remembers the teenage stock-picking genius during the dot.com bubble? I believe he's asian-american. The kid even published a book. Or how about the guy in San Diego who went from renter to owning multiple rentals in a span of a year or two. He was featured in the SD Union Tribune. I remember reading the articles about them and thought to myself, why wasn't I as "smart" as they were. Just curious how it ended for them.

BTW., does the stock market behaves as if it expects Chump to win?

Submitted by Coronita on September 2, 2020 - 12:56pm.

I sold half of my trading account yesterday....that's why the Dow is up 460+ pts today. lol.. You are welcome...

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 12:56pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Guess that one sailed over your heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmPwYhHX_jY

ha! Yes it did! I knew the song but never knew the name...and never heard of that album before either...and I thought I knew JT pretty well...

Still interested in what you listen to.

I had the living in the past album. Also songs from the wood.

And too old to rock nroll. I recall buying that at a discount. Like 2.99 indtead ouf 4.99. Not selling well

Didn't you get your albums for free from Columbia Record Club signing up in your cats name like the rest of us?

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 12:57pm.

Coronita wrote:
I sold half of my trading account yesterday....that's why the Dow is up 460+ pts today. lol.. You are welcome...

thanks! I'm catching up :)

Submitted by Coronita on September 2, 2020 - 12:59pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Coronita wrote:
I sold half of my trading account yesterday....that's why the Dow is up 460+ pts today. lol.. You are welcome...

thanks! I'm catching up :)

Sure. Should I short Tesla to help you even more?

I short , you go long, we split your profits half way.

Submitted by ltsddd on September 2, 2020 - 12:58pm.

Coronita wrote:
I sold half of my trading account yesterday....that's why the Dow is up 460+ pts today. lol.. You are welcome...

I am still about 60/40...weekly additions go straight into small caps...I am happy either way, but I am hoping for another major correction and I'll be all-in.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 1:01pm.

ltsddd wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Coronita wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

I bought Intel shares and AMD put options... Of course after I did that, AMD shot up from 90 to 92. If I kept every call option from 2.50/share, it would have been serious dough.
Sold some at 50ies.
Then some more at 60ies.
Got completely out in mid 70ies.
Watched it go to the 80ies and envious decided to go short the day it hit 90 with put options.

And now it's 92-93...
This sucks. AMD, just as crazy.

Reminds me of 1999, just a relentless march higher at crazy valuations, Well OK maybe most will not end up 0 like 1999 but still just crazy valuations.

But still Investors are sitting on probably the largest pile of cash ever, so there are a lot of investors sitting this out. very interesting times.

Seems a minority of money relentlessly pushing 5 or 6 stocks higher.

Anyone here remembers the teenage stock-picking genius during the dot.com bubble? I believe he's asian-american. The kid even published a book. Or how about the guy in San Diego who went from renter to owning multiple rentals in a span of a year or two. He was featured in the SD Union Tribune. I remember reading the articles about them and thought to myself, why wasn't I as "smart" as they were. Just curious how it ended for them.

BTW., does the stock market behaves as if it expects Chump to win?

Not sure if you are referencing them but a couple young guys were featured in the UT after opening a century 21 Brokerage in San Marcos. They got crushed though The main guy was able to hold onto some properties for several years avoiding foreclosure. Eventually he lost them but he lived mortgage free for years.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 1:03pm.

Coronita wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Coronita wrote:
I sold half of my trading account yesterday....that's why the Dow is up 460+ pts today. lol.. You are welcome...

thanks! I'm catching up :)

Sure. Should I short Tesla to help you even more?

I short , you go long, we split your profits half way.

I only own five shares. Not worth the trouble

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 1:04pm.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
You old guys are Living in the Past

Don't think we've heard what music artists you listen to...care to share?

Guess that one sailed over your heads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmPwYhHX_jY

ha! Yes it did! I knew the song but never knew the name...and never heard of that album before either...and I thought I knew JT pretty well...

Still interested in what you listen to.

I'm all over the place. Just got back from a six mile walk. Was listening to The Dirty Nil

Submitted by ltsddd on September 2, 2020 - 1:06pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
ltsddd wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Coronita wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I got tired of watching Tesla go up every day so I bought one share on Friday to make it go down. I figured even if it went down I would feel like a winner because I’d have five shares on Monday with the split. Net result? I have five shares and a 14% gain so far. Silliest stock on the planet

I bought Intel shares and AMD put options... Of course after I did that, AMD shot up from 90 to 92. If I kept every call option from 2.50/share, it would have been serious dough.
Sold some at 50ies.
Then some more at 60ies.
Got completely out in mid 70ies.
Watched it go to the 80ies and envious decided to go short the day it hit 90 with put options.

And now it's 92-93...
This sucks. AMD, just as crazy.

Reminds me of 1999, just a relentless march higher at crazy valuations, Well OK maybe most will not end up 0 like 1999 but still just crazy valuations.

But still Investors are sitting on probably the largest pile of cash ever, so there are a lot of investors sitting this out. very interesting times.

Seems a minority of money relentlessly pushing 5 or 6 stocks higher.

Anyone here remembers the teenage stock-picking genius during the dot.com bubble? I believe he's asian-american. The kid even published a book. Or how about the guy in San Diego who went from renter to owning multiple rentals in a span of a year or two. He was featured in the SD Union Tribune. I remember reading the articles about them and thought to myself, why wasn't I as "smart" as they were. Just curious how it ended for them.

BTW., does the stock market behaves as if it expects Chump to win?

Not sure if you are referencing them but a couple young guys were featured in the UT after opening a century 21 Brokerage in San Marcos. They got crushed though The main guy was able to hold onto some properties for several years avoiding foreclosure. Eventually he lost them but he lived mortgage free for years.

I don't think that was it. I think the guy was middle-age with a couple teenage kids. I believe he was an immigrant (either middle east or Armenia or something). He was renting a condo somewhere along the 15 corridor (Scripps Ranch?) before he struck "gold". He's really a poster boy for awful lending practices back then.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 2, 2020 - 1:14pm.

There were plenty. There were also a lot of "experts" here and on other real estate blogs that completely misread what was going on and didn't capitalize on what was a great opportunity after the crash. They were paralyzed by fear. Then there was powayseller. You don't even want to know where that one ended up. Beyond the deep end

Submitted by an on September 2, 2020 - 2:42pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Reminds me of 1999, just a relentless march higher at crazy valuations, Well OK maybe most will not end up 0 like 1999 but still just crazy valuations.

But still Investors are sitting on probably the largest pile of cash ever, so there are a lot of investors sitting this out. very interesting times.

Seems a minority of money relentlessly pushing 5 or 6 stocks higher.


That's exactly what I told my wife. It feel so much like 1999. Maybe early 1999 or late 1998. Which hopefully means, there's another year or so of this before things go bust.

Submitted by Coronita on September 3, 2020 - 8:16am.

Crash and burn. Dow down 600pts. heh heh.

Submitted by svelte on September 3, 2020 - 8:17am.

sdrealtor wrote:
ltsddd wrote:

Or how about the guy in San Diego who went from renter to owning multiple rentals in a span of a year or two. He was featured in the SD Union Tribune. I remember reading the articles about them and thought to myself, why wasn't I as "smart" as they were. Just curious how it ended for them.

Not sure if you are referencing them but a couple young guys were featured in the UT after opening a century 21 Brokerage in San Marcos. They got crushed though The main guy was able to hold onto some properties for several years avoiding foreclosure. Eventually he lost them but he lived mortgage free for years.

Probably not who you're talking about, but there was that kid (early 20s?) from Sacramento who drank the kool aid and bought rentals all over the country. I don't think he owned more than 10 but it ended very poorly...if I'm not mistaken he used no-doc loans to get them. He started the website "iamfacingforeclosure" and when all the properties were gone he changed his name and went into real estate. His original name was Casey Serin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

Submitted by Coronita on September 3, 2020 - 8:25am.

svelte wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
ltsddd wrote:

Or how about the guy in San Diego who went from renter to owning multiple rentals in a span of a year or two. He was featured in the SD Union Tribune. I remember reading the articles about them and thought to myself, why wasn't I as "smart" as they were. Just curious how it ended for them.

Not sure if you are referencing them but a couple young guys were featured in the UT after opening a century 21 Brokerage in San Marcos. They got crushed though The main guy was able to hold onto some properties for several years avoiding foreclosure. Eventually he lost them but he lived mortgage free for years.

Probably not who you're talking about, but there was that kid (early 20s?) from Sacramento who drank the kool aid and bought rentals all over the country. I don't think he owned more than 10 but it ended very poorly...if I'm not mistaken he used no-doc loans to get them. He started the website "iamfacingforeclosure" and when all the properties were gone he changed his name and went into real estate. His original name was Casey Serin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Serin

In these bubbles, most of the people who drink the coolaid after the "investment advice* hit mainstream got burned. People and insiders who got in early and knew to get out without trying to figure out what the peak was did very well. Back at my old dot.com company, of my my directors for out at $325/share and went into bonds. and when the stock went to $400+ share he didn't even blink, saying he always did well enough with his options and earned everyone not to be greedy. He was so right...

It's really hard to digest. When you're seeing gains after you sell, impulse is you sold at the wrong time....

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