Sell

User Forum Topic
Submitted by davelj on June 2, 2020 - 5:27pm

In my view...

You should pretty much sell every risk asset that you can - pretty much. This recent rally is a gift from the market gods to de-risk in the face of financial armageddon.

Amazingly, incredibly, beyond all reason... the S&P500 is down just 10% from it's (significantly overvalued) February all-time high. Despite what's likely to be 15%+ peak-to-trough decline in GDP, 15%+ unemployment, profit decimation, overwhelming corporate and personal bankruptcies, myriad bank failures... and no bullets left in the Fed's gun where rates are concerned... stocks levitate. I would argue that this stock market is the most overvalued US market I've ever seen - possibly including 1999/2000.

And it's all a trade - just like all of the classic sucker rallies. Only the big liquid names are moving and driving the indices higher. No one wants to actually "hold" anything. Everyone thinks they'll be the first ones out the door.

The good news is that the banks are *much* better capitalized than they were going into the Financial Crisis. The bad news is that they're going to need every dime of that capital to stave off a crushing wave of bad commercial and CRE loans. Drive down whatever street near you has a lot of strip malls. I live in Mexico now but I drove down Broadway in Chula Vista the other day and just looked on either side of the street - restaurants, nail/hair salons, small hotels, miscellaneous services and retail... at least 1/3 of these businesses will fail by year-end. They simply do not have the wherewithall to survive. And the others will limp along for years afterward. Virtually all restaurants are fvcked. Even if they can seat using social distancing guidelines, only a small percentage can break even. It could be 18 months before there's a "normal" restaurant business. Hospitality (resorts, hotels, vacation rentals)... fvcked. Total wipeout. Airlines and other human transportation... fvcked. Energy... fvcked. I could go on and on and on. And then think about the employees of all of these businesses... there could be 10 million jobs that simply don't return to the US economy for several years - even after there's a vaccine.

Yeah, there will be a bump in economic activity after we hit bottom and then followed by the vaccine (whenever that becomes available). But that bump will ultimately leave the economy (still) in a pretty big hole and, to add insult to injury, there will be a certain, albeit modest, percentage of folks whose behavior is going to semi-permanently change even after things normalize. They're going out less, traveling less, spending less, saving more. When you have a highly-leveraged tanker like the US economy that grows 2-3% in a good year and all of a sudden you have a modest percentage of folks that change behavior like that... you have a long-term disaster on your hands. As the saying goes, "everything important happens at the margin"... and at the margin, things are going to he11 in a handbasket.

Another piece of good news is that the bank regulators are trying to get ahead of things and using forebearance tools - as opposed to capital tools - to try to right the ship. I think that's smart - they should've done more of that during the Financial Crisis (as opposed to cramming capital down everyone's throat) - but... it's still going to get very, very ugly. There are so many permanently damaged businesses out there - eg, think about all of the commercial real estate and how these owners are going to deal with massive waves of bankrupt leasees. Yes, there are regulatory tools that can help but when you see these being pulled out, you'll know the Powers That Be are panicking. This freight train is going to level pretty much everything in its path - I'll be very surprised if it's not worse than the Financial Crisis.

Drive around your town or city. Look around. Think about the businesses that aren't coming back. Think about the folks whose jobs aren't coming back for a long time. Think about how behavior is going to change even after things begin to normalize. Think about the leverage and how the banks are going to cope with all of this. Think about what this means for corporate profitability - short-term and long-term and then what that means for nosebleed-level stock valuations.

Meanwhile, our fair-haired Nero fiddles while Rome burns.

Discretion is the better part of valor. Sell.

I could be wrong. But I doubt it.

Submitted by ltsddd on August 26, 2020 - 10:36am.

Mark Cuban on trading stocks:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mark-c...

Submitted by plm on August 26, 2020 - 10:56am.

Coronita wrote:
plm wrote:
Reality wrote:
plm wrote:

Actually I think that selling and buying back later at a lower prices is a way to have even better returns but much riskier since you have to time the market properly. Isn't it safest to buy and hold and just don't sell when they market crashes?

What if when you need retirement income coincides with the crash?

Well this last crash only lasted for a few months... But seriously, I have enough cash for a couple years worth of expenses and I have rental and significant dividend income as well so its unlikely I will have to sell at the bottom.

I think Reality was referring to not just the brief crash that happened due to covid.

I think Reality was referring to a real crash like the one in 2001 which lasted for several years and which a lot of overspeculated or just nonsense high flyer companies ended up crashing to oblivion and never recovered. Many of us remember.

Index fund investments survived and recovered..Many individual stocks didn't and many people who thought they could outsmart the indexes only thought so because they never really experienced a real life crash.

If you look at how the indexes are performing right now, it's sort of misleading. It's not that most of the companies that make up those indexes are all doing well this year Most of them are still negative. It's just a few select companies in those indexes have went beserk and those few companies are making the entire index look good. Companies like AMD which is trading around $86/share even though it absolutely makes no sense.

Regarding protection. I can only speak of a large company issued stock options grant. Back then, one thing we did do to protect from a big crash was to buy out of money out options regularly. I worked for a company that priced there IPO at $30/share and opened at $217, and within that first 6 months went as high as $415/share even though we were still unprofitable. Our valuation was a $6 billion software company even though are revenue was around $50million. Made no sense whatsoever. I remember the moment put options were available, many of us were buying them when the stock price was still above $300/share just so it could protect all the unvested employee stock options that had a $30 strike price that we needed to wait 4 years to fully vest

It wasn't long after the company stock fell to $7/share.

Retail speculators lost their shirts.

Employees got laid off.

Some employees that got laid off had a big grin on their face because suddenly their out of money put options that was insurance for their unvested company issued stock options was worth a lot of money, and they didn't need to wait for 4 years of vesting to get that money which was almost the same as how much their company issued options would have been...

Since then, companies have gotten a lot smarter. Many have a company policy against you or a family member owning derivatives of the company stock....

Whenever things really get frothy, individual stock ownership gets a lot more risky. I think for some of these speculation, there has to be an exit strategy because it is almost impossible to be consistently have the winning hand all the time. Once you've reached a point of a lucky windfall that matters, it's imho an equal amount of effort to try to preserve and prevent losing most of it, and that means finding a way to shift that money somewhere else that is less likely to lose as much as fast as you can in individual stocks.

At least that's how I was able to afford to buy a primary SFH down here when I moved back in 2004, when housing was already pretty expensive and also getting frothy.

Well your example implies a price/sales of 120. My highest two are Fastly and Okta which are high in the 30s and 40s. Okta just popped another 7 percent today probably because Salesforce popped 25 percent after great earnings yesterday. When these momentum stocks I own keep going up, blind greed takes over and I can't sell. I'm even selling the few loser dividend stocks I own like CVS and buying growth tech instead, screw diversification.

Submitted by ltsddd on August 26, 2020 - 11:31am.

I get this weird feeling that the number of stocks-related posts on this forum is a good indicator of an impending market correction.

Here's my prediction - we're not going to make it past election day unscathed.

Submitted by plm on August 26, 2020 - 12:10pm.

I think there may be a correction too but high tech growth should be hurt less since they work in the stay at home economy. It's the retail/travel that's recovered somewhat that will probably head down.

Just don't see a vaccine taking effect yet and you got schools opening. Incumbents no longer boosting the economy to get re-elected.

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 12:24pm.

plm wrote:
I think there may be a correction too but high tech growth should be hurt less since they work in the stay at home economy. It's the retail/travel that's recovered somewhat that will probably head down.

Just don't see a vaccine taking effect yet and you got schools opening. Incumbents no longer boosting the economy to get re-elected.

Good luck to you. For your sake, hopefully, this time it really is different.

Submitted by ltsddd on August 26, 2020 - 12:25pm.

My head spins like crazy seeing a handful of companies marching up in double, triple digits day in/out. I too unloaded my dead money in UBS that I have held since 2017. I put all proceeds into aapl @455 and already getting >10% returns in less than two weeks. The market is acting really stupid. If the crash in March was a train-wreck in slow motion as scaredy was saying. I think this train-wreck is happening in front of our eyes in SUPER slow motion.

I think in the end, the house always win. In this case the house are those big institutions. The gamblers are the robinhood crowds. It's not going to end well for the robbing hoods.

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 12:56pm.

I moved my trading account back to more of a cash holding again by selling half of everything.

I guess I'm just thinking with all the social media i-gen stars now talking about the stock market and how easy it is to make money, and anyone can do it... Reminds me of old times when a financially illiterate receptionist could be heard talking about how easy it is to make money in the stock market during coffee breaks back in 2000.

If we see a correction, maybe I'll slowly move things back in. Otherwise, I'm contend with things this year.

Less greedy, more caution.

Submitted by svelte on August 26, 2020 - 1:26pm.

ltsddd wrote:
I get this weird feeling that the number of stocks-related posts on this forum is a good indicator of an impending market correction.

Here's my prediction - we're not going to make it past election day unscathed.

History tells us that October can be an ugly month for stocks.

Sometimes even August "Sell in August and go away" (a take-off on the old Sell in May and go away) but looks like not this year.

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 1:43pm.

Party like it's 1999. Deja Vu.

I think we are at the point of Round 2 of euphoria.
Back in the late 90ies, this happened too.

I distinctly remember there was a stock run up while I was still in college with companies like Netscape, Spyglass, and a few other dot.coms

And then there was a medium correction where the first way of these dotcom companies crapped out... And then there was a second wave of euphoria for a second wave of dot.com companies starting late 1998 early 1999 that was even more crazy than the first wave. This second wave included companies like WebVan, eToys, MySimon, pets.com, Vitria, Ariba, CommerceOne, and all the enterprise software companies supporting all this shit....BEA, Tibco, JD Edwards, Peoplesoft, IONA, etc,etc,etc Somewhere buried in that mess was also Sun Microsystems, Nortel Networks, Worldcom, Ascend Communications, USRobotics, 3COM, and a bunch of DSL companies.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 26, 2020 - 1:43pm.

I predict mayhem no matter who thinks they won IMO only.

choose your intolerant leader, any descent from official message will not be tolerated.

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 1:49pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I predict mayhem no matter who thinks they won IMO only.

choose your intolerant leader, any descent from official message will not be tolerated.

Well, some folks wants to severely cripple 401k plans for anyone that isn't poor.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2020...

Wanting it and doing it are two different things, but I think things will get reeled in.

Old savers with something like 7 figures in it already will probably be grandfathered in. New savers trying to accumulate wealth, it's going to get tougher. Not my problem.

Submitted by plm on August 26, 2020 - 1:49pm.

Coronita wrote:
I moved my trading account back to more of a cash holding again by selling half of everything.

I guess I'm just thinking with all the social media i-gen stars now talking about the stock market and how easy it is to make money, and anyone can do it... Reminds me of old times when a financially illiterate receptionist could be heard talking about how easy it is to make money in the stock market during coffee breaks back in 2000.

If we see a correction, maybe I'll slowly move things back in. Otherwise, I'm contend with things this year.

Less greedy, more caution.

I suppose the question really is given the strong demand for stocks (there really isn't anything else to invest in), how high does it go before it breaks down. I think it can go up alot more before it crashes. And if it does crash earlier, I'll just ride it out. I don't think my main holdings like Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and AMD are going to go bankrupt. Well maybe AMD could go down alot if Intel performs better. But at that point I'll be playing with house money.

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 2:04pm.

plm wrote:
Coronita wrote:
I moved my trading account back to more of a cash holding again by selling half of everything.

I guess I'm just thinking with all the social media i-gen stars now talking about the stock market and how easy it is to make money, and anyone can do it... Reminds me of old times when a financially illiterate receptionist could be heard talking about how easy it is to make money in the stock market during coffee breaks back in 2000.

If we see a correction, maybe I'll slowly move things back in. Otherwise, I'm contend with things this year.

Less greedy, more caution.

I suppose the question really is given the strong demand for stocks (there really isn't anything else to invest in), how high does it go before it breaks down. I think it can go up alot more before it crashes. And if it does crash earlier, I'll just ride it out. I don't think my main holdings like Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and AMD are going to go bankrupt. Well maybe AMD could go down alot if Intel performs better. But at that point I'll be playing with house money.

I think it's tough to guess the absolutely bottom or top. For me, taking a step back, the way to look at it is....Is 40% YTD really typical, or way out of the norm? If so, why be greedy and try to go after an additional 10, 20, 30%? It was a total fluke and total luck that when covid hit, that the markets didn't crater any further than it did. Things could have gone really bad the other way for everyone that jumped back into the markets into individual stocks.

I was already content if I could see 4-6% in a year I thought the markets would have gotten trashed after covid. You already beat most of the people that thought covid would have taken the entire markets down and either sat out this year, or god forbid shorted the markets when they thought covid would have made things much worse. You already beat all the folks that were hoping for that big crash to get back in the markets but didn't think the covid correction was big enough. And you also beat all the people who lost their job who had to either cash out the 401k or didn't have any additional disposable income to speculate, because they were worried about putting food on the table and paying for rent or their mortgage. (some empathy for those folks because who got hit and who didn't because of covid was also some random luck thing...plenty of workers plenty of business owners got hit pretty hard in the same exact way.) Relatively speaking, anything else from this point on is just icing on the cake, and personally one needs to seriously consider the risk versus reward from here on out imho.

The way for me to self discipline is to put that money to another use that is way less risky, even if it loses some money or stays flat. Eventually, you're luck is going to run out. And you won't know when.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 26, 2020 - 2:52pm.

Reality wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Dow up about 10% since this post. Nasdaq up closer to 20%. Like the say. Don't drink the water in Mexico. Glad I didn't

YTD trading portfolio not as good as Coronita. Up 30%.
YTD long term conservative dividend/total return portfolio. Up 8%

So when did you get back in?

https://www.piggington.com/i039m_out_again

Outside of some small trades after getting out in 2009, I went back all-in 2011/2012 on high quality dividend stocks as that was the only place to find yields. It provided the solid 3-4% returns I was looking for. These stocks included LLY, HD, JNJ, KMB, MCD, MRK, MDLZ, RPM, T, VZ among others. In the ensuing years many other people decided to do the same and the portfolio produced very significant capital gains on top of the income I bought them for. I still hold most of those stocks today having reinvested most of the dividends. In that same portfolio I always kept a fair amount of cash waiting for opportunties like this Spring and of course I had some underperformers though not many.

In late Feb/early Mar I saw an opportunity to add high quality companies paying extraordinarily high dividends for companies of this caliber and/or very undervalued IMO including ABBV, AVGO, JPM, MSFT, QCOM, UPS and APPL. I added or significantly increased positions in them. All have done extraordinarily well except JPM. Cant win em all.

In my short term trading account I mostly trade 3X leveraged ETF's while holding onto a few long term holds I bought between 2015 and 2018 including APPL, FB, GOOG, HD and NVDA. I also bought AYX in the teens based upon a past client working there. Rode it up to $180 but its back down around $120. If I had a crystal ball I wouldve taken some more profits there.

I have been very successful trading those ETF's the last 4 to 5 years with one exception which was last year on the 3X gold etf's. When they went up I was short and when they went down I was long. If I had done the opposite last year Id probably be on a island somewhere but here I am.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 26, 2020 - 2:47pm.

Reality wrote:
plm wrote:

Actually I think that selling and buying back later at a lower prices is a way to have even better returns but much riskier since you have to time the market properly. Isn't it safest to buy and hold and just don't sell when they market crashes?

What if when you need retirement income coincides with the crash?

Thats why I buy for total return including growth and income. If they maintain/grow their dividends I'll never have a need to sell anything. I also have solar (no electric bill), drought tolerant landscape (minimal water bill and no landscaper), house close to paid off w/ 1999 tax basis (minimal housing expense), tesla (no gas bill) etc. Oh and I have a very full wine cellar:)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 26, 2020 - 2:47pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Reality wrote:
plm wrote:

Actually I think that selling and buying back later at a lower prices is a way to have even better returns but much riskier since you have to time the market properly. Isn't it safest to buy and hold and just don't sell when they market crashes?

What if when you need retirement income coincides with the crash?

Thats why I buy for total return including growth and income. If they maintain/grow their dividends I'll never have a need to sell anything. I also have solar (no electric bill), drought tolerant landscape (minimal water bill), house close to paid off (minimal housing expense), tesla (no gas bill) etc. Oh and I have a very full wine cellar:)

this seems very right. how much is it worth to have a paid off house? not to worry about things going really wrong with investments?

that said, I'm trying to refi with a large cashout to dollar cost average into various funds. :0

still good to keep expenses low.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 26, 2020 - 2:59pm.

If you read back on the 2009 you'll see I consider myself a very conservative investor particularly with the account that matters (my long term hold account). I think of my self as not being as smart or successful as most people. I cant afford to make mistakes which I cant recover from so I forego bigger gains for things I perceive having downside protection. Part of that means taking excess profits in my best working years to pay off debts or make long term investments (solar, drought tolerant landscape etc) to minimize my need for money when I cant or dont want to work anymore. My next and probably last big project will be building a really nice guest house out back to live in so I can generate income off my main home which while easily affordable is quite a bit more than I need. Of course that guest house will require a wine cellar too.

Submitted by ltsddd on August 26, 2020 - 3:02pm.

svelte wrote:
ltsddd wrote:
I get this weird feeling that the number of stocks-related posts on this forum is a good indicator of an impending market correction.

Here's my prediction - we're not going to make it past election day unscathed.

History tells us that October can be an ugly month for stocks.

Sometimes even August "Sell in August and go away" (a take-off on the old Sell in May and go away) but looks like not this year.

I have experienced at least a couple of those Octobers. The one that sticks with me to this day is the one in 1995. Due to a glitch to the system, I was allowed to buy 1000 shares of Cypress Semi @ $90/each - my cash balance was around $3k. I was a nervous wreck that whole weekend and first thing I did the following Monday was liquidated everything. I think the market tanked that same week and CY went from about $90 to below $60. As a young 20-something that $30K hit could have altered my financial situation forever (probably never would have been able to purchase my first home a couple years later).

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 26, 2020 - 3:16pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
If you read back on the 2009 you'll see I consider myself a very conservative investor particularly with the account that matters (my long term hold account). I think of my self as not being as smart or successful as most people. I cant afford to make mistakes which I cant recover from so I forego bigger gains for things I perceive having downside protection. Part of that means taking excess profits in my best working years to pay off debts or make long term investments (solar, drought tolerant landscape etc) to minimize my need for money when I cant or dont want to work anymore. My next and probably last big project will be building a really nice guest house out back to live in so I can generate income off my main home which while easily affordable is quite a bit more than I need. Of course that guest house will require a wine cellar too.

If you really want to cut expenses, booze is a good place to start. I accepted the five mindfulness trainings in february in deerpark monastery in escondido, and part of that is a vow to abstain from booze. so far, so good. Not one drink. I send them $50 a month as a donation, and I figure I save 200 a month in booze; probably more, I was in denial. in my weird mind, as long as i send them $50.00, I wont be drinking. I definitely dont want to let Thich Nhat Hanh down! I made a vow!

Not bad. plus the tax deduction for the donation.

skip the wine cellar, the booze, drinkign in bars, restaurants. it's very profitable.

Usually i would think, well then, why continue living? whats the point if i get to have zero alcohol. It's a great pleasure of mine.

yeah, well....maybe. an hour of meditation a day can clear the mind much better than a bottle of wine. no cheaper hobby than meditation!

in my more lucid moments, i think how wonderful it would be to be completely disconnected from news, particularly financial news. imagine a life where you truly didn't give a crap what was going on in the larger world. Paid off house, low expenses, super low risk investments...i wonder if such a lifestyle could extend ones lifespan.

it would be a nice way to live. out of the game, the rat race, the bullshit, the second guessing, the anxiety over decisionmaking....

also looking at leaving some money to the Thich Nhat Hanh foundation in my will (maybe total booze savings?). my last will didn't have any tricky stuff like this, just family members.

feel like maybe i should spread some money around...

Submitted by Coronita on August 26, 2020 - 3:36pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Reality wrote:
plm wrote:

Actually I think that selling and buying back later at a lower prices is a way to have even better returns but much riskier since you have to time the market properly. Isn't it safest to buy and hold and just don't sell when they market crashes?

What if when you need retirement income coincides with the crash?

Thats why I buy for total return including growth and income. If they maintain/grow their dividends I'll never have a need to sell anything. I also have solar (no electric bill), drought tolerant landscape (minimal water bill), house close to paid off (minimal housing expense), tesla (no gas bill) etc. Oh and I have a very full wine cellar:)

this seems very right. how much is it worth to have a paid off house? not to worry about things going really wrong with investments?

that said, I'm trying to refi with a large cashout to dollar cost average into various funds. :0

still good to keep expenses low.

That what dividend income , rental income, and a job income is for. Reduces the chances of 3 simultaneous failures. Trying to avoid touching any 401k/IRA even for emergencies so it can compound as long as it can before its tapped.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 26, 2020 - 3:44pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
If you read back on the 2009 you'll see I consider myself a very conservative investor particularly with the account that matters (my long term hold account). I think of my self as not being as smart or successful as most people. I cant afford to make mistakes which I cant recover from so I forego bigger gains for things I perceive having downside protection. Part of that means taking excess profits in my best working years to pay off debts or make long term investments (solar, drought tolerant landscape etc) to minimize my need for money when I cant or dont want to work anymore. My next and probably last big project will be building a really nice guest house out back to live in so I can generate income off my main home which while easily affordable is quite a bit more than I need. Of course that guest house will require a wine cellar too.

If you really want to cut expenses, booze is a good place to start. I accepted the five mindfulness trainings in february in deerpark monastery in escondido, and part of that is a vow to abstain from booze. so far, so good. Not one drink. I send them $50 a month as a donation, and I figure I save 200 a month in booze; probably more, I was in denial. in my weird mind, as long as i send them $50.00, I wont be drinking. I definitely dont want to let Thich Nhat Hanh down! I made a vow!

Not bad. plus the tax deduction for the donation.

skip the wine cellar, the booze, drinkign in bars, restaurants. it's very profitable.

Usually i would think, well then, why continue living? whats the point if i get to have zero alcohol. It's a great pleasure of mine.

yeah, well....maybe. an hour of meditation a day can clear the mind much better than a bottle of wine. no cheaper hobby than meditation!

in my more lucid moments, i think how wonderful it would be to be completely disconnected from news, particularly financial news. imagine a life where you truly didn't give a crap what was going on in the larger world. Paid off house, low expenses, super low risk investments...i wonder if such a lifestyle could extend ones lifespan.

it would be a nice way to live. out of the game, the rat race, the bullshit, the second guessing, the anxiety over decisionmaking....

also looking at leaving some money to the Thich Nhat Hanh foundation in my will (maybe total booze savings?). my last will didn't have any tricky stuff like this, just family members.

feel like maybe i should spread some money around...

I think I am even better at buying wine than real estate or stocks. My collection could easily be sold for a lot more than I paid for it. I occassionally sell bottles off when they get too valuable for me to comfortably drink.

And to paraphrase Freewheelin' Franklin of the Fabulous Freak Brothers...Wine will get you through time of no money better than money will get you through times of no wine!

And I aim to find out if the lifestyle you described can extend ones lifespan so I get to drink it all

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 26, 2020 - 5:46pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
If you read back on the 2009 you'll see I consider myself a very conservative investor particularly with the account that matters (my long term hold account). I think of my self as not being as smart or successful as most people. I cant afford to make mistakes which I cant recover from so I forego bigger gains for things I perceive having downside protection. Part of that means taking excess profits in my best working years to pay off debts or make long term investments (solar, drought tolerant landscape etc) to minimize my need for money when I cant or dont want to work anymore. My next and probably last big project will be building a really nice guest house out back to live in so I can generate income off my main home which while easily affordable is quite a bit more than I need. Of course that guest house will require a wine cellar too.

If you really want to cut expenses, booze is a good place to start. I accepted the five mindfulness trainings in february in deerpark monastery in escondido, and part of that is a vow to abstain from booze. so far, so good. Not one drink. I send them $50 a month as a donation, and I figure I save 200 a month in booze; probably more, I was in denial. in my weird mind, as long as i send them $50.00, I wont be drinking. I definitely dont want to let Thich Nhat Hanh down! I made a vow!

Not bad. plus the tax deduction for the donation.

skip the wine cellar, the booze, drinkign in bars, restaurants. it's very profitable.

Usually i would think, well then, why continue living? whats the point if i get to have zero alcohol. It's a great pleasure of mine.

yeah, well....maybe. an hour of meditation a day can clear the mind much better than a bottle of wine. no cheaper hobby than meditation!

in my more lucid moments, i think how wonderful it would be to be completely disconnected from news, particularly financial news. imagine a life where you truly didn't give a crap what was going on in the larger world. Paid off house, low expenses, super low risk investments...i wonder if such a lifestyle could extend ones lifespan.

it would be a nice way to live. out of the game, the rat race, the bullshit, the second guessing, the anxiety over decisionmaking....

also looking at leaving some money to the Thich Nhat Hanh foundation in my will (maybe total booze savings?). my last will didn't have any tricky stuff like this, just family members.

feel like maybe i should spread some money around...

I think I am even better at buying wine than real estate or stocks. My collection could easily be sold for a lot more than I paid for it. I occassionally sell bottles off when they get too valuable for me to comfortably drink.

And to paraphrase Freewheelin' Franklin of the Fabulous Freak Brothers...Wine will get you through time of no money better than money will get you through times of no wine!

And I aim to find out if the lifestyle you described can extend ones lifespan so I get to drink it all

the guys from workaholics are supposedly working ona freak brothers cartoon.

I am extremely excited about this. I loved workaholics. really really loved it; even adored it.

and im sure ill like the updated freak bros! i bet i'll even like it stone cold sober!

https://deadline.com/2019/07/fabulous-fu...

in a way, workaholics is kind of an updated freak brothers, now that i think about it. 3 guys, a lot of drugs, dumbasses. reading the freak brothers at a young age really made me want to be like them; unemployed, chronically high, always hanging out. I failed to achieve all of those youthful goals.

Submitted by svelte on August 28, 2020 - 7:07am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I think of my self as not being as smart or successful as most people.

I don't think that is true at all. Far from it.

You give much more thought to things than most people and reach far better conclusions.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 28, 2020 - 9:40am.

Thank you for the compliment. That mentality has always been my guiding philosophy on investing and making financial decisions. I think it's why I'm still here doing my thing in an almost paid off house while my colleagues here and beyond are not in the same place. Stay humble in life, make good solid decisions and let time work for you. It's really not all that difficult and most of us still here have followed similar paths

Submitted by svelte on August 28, 2020 - 10:26am.

Love the let time work for you thing.

That's something I discovered in my 20s...I sleep much better if I put myself on a course where every day gets a little better, a little less risk. I struggle when I'm on the opposite path. One of the reasons I never chose an adjustable rate mortgage, though in hindsight that would have been better. Who knew?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 28, 2020 - 11:20am.

svelte wrote:
Love the let time work for you thing.

That's something I discovered in my 20s...I sleep much better if I put myself on a course where every day gets a little better, a little less risk. I struggle when I'm on the opposite path. One of the reasons I never chose an adjustable rate mortgage, though in hindsight that would have been better. Who knew?

i feel the same, but maybe this is just what being old and facing death is? there's a little less risk every day because most of the days are in the past and decided.

When you are young, it is all risk, all possibility. Now, old, you know basically how the story turned out. so many fewer unknowns. you have arrived. you are here.

it's beautiful, but oddly sad.

here is a word that someone made up from the dictionary of obscure sorrows, my favorite dictionary in the world. it is comprised entirely of words people constructed to express emotions we all have not currently covered by language.

énouement

n. the bittersweetness of having arrived here in the future, where you can finally get the answers to how things turn out in the real world—who your baby sister would become, what your friends would end up doing, where your choices would lead you, exactly when you’d lose the people you took for granted—which is priceless intel that you instinctively want to share with anybody who hadn’t already made the journey, as if there was some part of you who had volunteered to stay behind, who was still stationed at a forgotten outpost somewhere in the past, still eagerly awaiting news from the front.

https://www.dictionaryofobscuresorrows.c...

and so part of me is now hankering for some extreme risk, that the story isn't told, that scaredy isn't fully decided, there is still a plot twist. i mean, not as risky as an ARM, but you know, something....unexpected.

too old for a midlife crisis, too young to die.

maybe i can sell that slogan as tshirts at senior centers...

cant even get an ARM nowadays. which is an odd sign in itself..

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 28, 2020 - 4:06pm.

svelte wrote:
Love the let time work for you thing.

That's something I discovered in my 20s...I sleep much better if I put myself on a course where every day gets a little better, a little less risk. I struggle when I'm on the opposite path. One of the reasons I never chose an adjustable rate mortgage, though in hindsight that would have been better. Who knew?

Thinking back to the homes Ive bought to live in, Ive always been so worried about getting in over my head. Within a few years it always gets much easier, after several I say why didnt I go for a nicer place and after ten why didnt I buy 2!

Submitted by svelte on August 29, 2020 - 8:02am.

sdrealtor wrote:

Thinking back to the homes Ive bought to live in, Ive always been so worried about getting in over my head. Within a few years it always gets much easier, after several I say why didnt I go for a nicer place and after ten why didnt I buy 2!

Truth! When I think back on the places I passed up. I'd be retired by now.

On the other hand, i've slept like a baby most nights and may have died from a heart attack had I bought them.

Life is a cruel mistress.

Submitted by svelte on August 29, 2020 - 8:05am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

too old for a midlife crisis, too young to die.

maybe i can sell that slogan as tshirts at senior centers...

or put out a music album...

Jethro TullJethro Tull

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 29, 2020 - 12:45pm.

The old rocker wore his hair too long
Wore his trouser cuffs too tight
Unfashionable to the end drank his ale too light
Death's head belts buckle, yesterday's dreams
The transport caf' prophet of doom
Ringing no change in his double sewn seams
In his post-war babe gloom

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