Scruffy Dog post revisited

User Forum Topic
Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on January 8, 2008 - 9:12pm

5-1-09: Once again, Rich's latest chart reminded me of ol' Scruffy dog's call to shut down this website. This makes me smile everytime.

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Ok folks! With the release of Rich's December home prices chart it's a good time to revisit an old post. Also, it has been exactly 6 months since I cached this infamous post by Scruffy Dog and my response to it.

As I promised, here it is. Be gentle and enjoy. :)

Housing & economy doing great…shut down this site!

User Forum Topic
Submitted by scruffydog on July 3, 2007 - 1:32pm.

Unfortunately many of you missed out on the last real estate boom. Now you spend your time on this site hoping that real estate or the economy will crash so you can buy in. Sorry, not going to happen. Piggington now appears to have reverted to a religious / political debate site. Is it because you are now beginning to realize the real estate collapse will not happen and you have nothing else to write about?

Real Estate

Minimal RE downturn in CA is limited to areas where there was land to build new houses: ie San Diego, Sacramento, and Riverside county areas. Metro LA, Orange county is all built out – very little land left to build on. LA median is up ~ 6% yoy, average cost of home is up $50k. Also coastal property prices are setting new high price records weekly!

Economy

Almost any day of the week, any time of the day I have a difficult time finding parking spaces at stores or malls because there are so many people out spending money. I've noticed some stores can’t keep items stocked on their shelves fast enough because they are so busy (Target, Trader Joes). I let my Costco membership expire because the store is ALWAYS so crowded with shoppers I couldn’t deal with it.
Stock market is crankin’...unemployment low...low interest rates...truly a Goldilocks economy! Quit whining...oh and don’t be late with your rent payment to your landlord.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Response:

Oh dear God! Somebody
Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on July 3, 2007 - 4:47pm.

Oh dear God! Somebody PLEASE cache this fools post.

We absolutely MUST check back on this one in 6 months to a year from now.

This is gonna be Classic!

Submitted by bonfire on January 9, 2008 - 8:23am.

where is little Scruffydog now?

Submitted by nostradamus on January 9, 2008 - 9:20am.

In the magical raindrop forest with LostCat, PussyWillow, and BunnyMeadows!

Submitted by bonfire on January 9, 2008 - 9:32am.

Reality does bite!

Submitted by Aecetia on January 9, 2008 - 9:33am.

Awesome post.

Submitted by SD Transplant on January 9, 2008 - 9:58am.

I tell you one thing. This guy could qualify for a CEO position with: CountryFried (or any lender), Starbucks, any home builder, or HomeDepot... and if I may stretch......he could be in line to become the next FED chairman (replace Bernanke).

Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on May 1, 2009 - 5:54pm.

I Just couldn't resist dragging this one back from the past. :)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 1, 2009 - 11:30pm.

it is very hard to predict the future though. at the time, i remember thinking in 07 that well, maybe the bulls are right, maybe it will all double again. i suppose it could have with the right conditions. but it didn't. its easy to look back and laugh butit's difficult to knwo exactly when a bubble is too inflaeted, when it will burst and when th e madness will end (if in fact it does in your lifetime.). still, it's pretty funny.

Submitted by scruffydog on May 2, 2009 - 8:07am.

So entertaining to see the post again! :))
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 2, 2009 - 8:38am.

I just remember during the bubble up thinking we're in a bubble and it's gonna turn around soon. But it kept going and going like the EverReady Bunny Battery. And I was amazed at the stretch and length of the ascent up.

I think the cycle down will equally amaze the bulls on the descent down.

Submitted by urbanrealtor on May 2, 2009 - 10:52am.

jpinpb wrote:
I just remember during the bubble up thinking we're in a bubble and it's gonna turn around soon. But it kept going and going like the EverReady Bunny Battery.

You are thinking of the Energizer Bunny.

What you mentioned is something you can order here.
http://www.goodvibes.com

Or so I have heard...

Sorry.

My posts are just getting progressively more juvenile.

Apparently, 34 is the regression age for me.

Submitted by jpinpb on May 2, 2009 - 11:13am.

LOL. Thanks for the correction.

The point was I kept thinking we reached peak and it kept going up. Now the bulls keep calling bottom yet the decline continues.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 2, 2009 - 11:42am.

i have no real estate expertise, and maybe this sign is meaningless, but when i look around redfin and continue to see loads of substantial bimonthly reductions on lots of house prices, it doesn't seem like as a matter of common sense the bottom is in.

Submitted by davelj on May 2, 2009 - 1:15pm.

scruffydog wrote:
So entertaining to see the post again! :))
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.

Oh, ok... so the spin job you're trying to sell us now on your wildly, totally, completely incorrect post of years back is that it wasn't about the prediction, per se, but rather it was about "refocusing the site back" to real estate?

Please.

You completely missed the boat. Totally. Forget the ballpark, you weren't even on the same planet as being correct.

The only good news for you is that this doesn't disqualify you for a job at Treasury, the Fed or the White House.

Submitted by Allan from Fallbrook on May 2, 2009 - 1:23pm.

davelj wrote:
scruffydog wrote:
So entertaining to see the post again! :))
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.

Oh, ok... so the spin job you're trying to sell us now on your wildly, totally, completely incorrect post of years back is that it wasn't about the prediction, per se, but rather it was about "refocusing the site back" to real estate?

Please.

You completely missed the boat. Totally. Forget the ballpark, you weren't even on the same planet as being correct.

The only good news for you is that this doesn't disqualify you for a job at Treasury, the Fed or the White House.

Dave: Scruffy's response also indicates that he's been lurking this entire time and watching this slow motion train wreck with the rest of us. Scruffy hasn't been posting, but instead has been laying low and watching his "prescient" posting get shredded by events.

What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".

His post was a howler when it was originally posted and it's only gotten funnier.

Submitted by davelj on May 2, 2009 - 2:13pm.

Allan from Fallbrook wrote:

What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".

Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.

Submitted by Allan from Fallbrook on May 2, 2009 - 2:25pm.

davelj wrote:
Allan from Fallbrook wrote:

What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".

Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.

Dave: If we forced all the idiots to wear signs, what fun would that be? Think of all the endless frustration, anger and pisstivity that you would miss! No more pointless arguments, headaches from trying to get the completely obtuse to understand simple logic, or the near state of grace you encounter when confronting the totally mendacious, only to realize that they have no sense of self awareness at all.

C'mon, Dave, what would do with all that spare time?

Submitted by davelj on May 2, 2009 - 2:43pm.

Allan from Fallbrook wrote:
davelj wrote:
Allan from Fallbrook wrote:

What did you think he was going to say? "Yup, I'm a total idiot and so completely miscalled this as to call my basic intelligence into question".

Sometimes... I dare to dream... only to have such dreams dashed on the rocky shores of reality.

Dave: If we forced all the idiots to wear signs, what fun would that be? Think of all the endless frustration, anger and pisstivity that you would miss! No more pointless arguments, headaches from trying to get the completely obtuse to understand simple logic, or the near state of grace you encounter when confronting the totally mendacious, only to realize that they have no sense of self awareness at all.

C'mon, Dave, what would do with all that spare time?

Well, I can't argue with that. The entertainment value is pretty high.

Submitted by 34f3f3f on May 2, 2009 - 3:13pm.

Come on people, it's just a wind up.

Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on May 2, 2009 - 10:06pm.

I truly have nothing against scruffy dog personally. Really.

I think it's the way this post demonstrates the pervasiveness of the housing boom that makes me remember it. The way the housing boom was so "Sure thing" and the way us Piggington's were so "crazy" is why I bring this back from the past.

Submitted by CA renter on May 2, 2009 - 11:56pm.

jpinpb wrote:
I just remember during the bubble up thinking we're in a bubble and it's gonna turn around soon. But it kept going and going like the EverReady Bunny Battery. And I was amazed at the stretch and length of the ascent up.

I think the cycle down will equally amaze the bulls on the descent down.

Agree 100%. It would be interesting to see how people's perspectives would change if the downturn were to go in waves for 10 or more years.

Not saying that it's going to happen, just saying that it might...and the reaction would be interesting to observe.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 13, 2021 - 9:50pm.

davelj wrote:
scruffydog wrote:
So entertaining to see the post again! :))
The post did it’s job refocusing the site back to r/e and away from religious / political debate.

Oh, ok... so the spin job you're trying to sell us now on your wildly, totally, completely incorrect post of years back is that it wasn't about the prediction, per se, but rather it was about "refocusing the site back" to real estate?

Please.

You completely missed the boat. Totally. Forget the ballpark, you weren't even on the same planet as being correct.

The only good news for you is that this doesn't disqualify you for a job at Treasury, the Fed or the White House.

Kinda funny to look at this one now with the benefit of hindsight. If old scruffydog held onto properties as rentals through the down turn, he's now sitting in a pretty damn good spot

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 14, 2021 - 4:05am.

Young scaredy, this is a message from olds caredy from the future, 2021: relax!

Oldscaredy, this is a message from superoldscaredy from 2070: jesus christ, things are awful!

Permabear, permascare.

I do believe life will be worse, but doubt that can depress pricing of anything.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 14, 2021 - 4:06am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
i have no real estate expertise, and maybe this sign is meaningless, but when i look around redfin and continue to see loads of substantial bimonthly reductions on lots of house prices, it doesn't seem like as a matter of common sense the bottom is in.

Riverside is not sd, youngscaredy...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 14, 2021 - 4:07am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
it is very hard to predict the future though. at the time, i remember thinking in 07 that well, maybe the bulls are right, maybe it will all double again. i suppose it could have with the right conditions. but it didn't. its easy to look back and laugh butit's difficult to knwo exactly when a bubble is too inflaeted, when it will burst and when th e madness will end (if in fact it does in your lifetime.). still, it's pretty funny.

In the future, youngscaredy, you will stop drinking and become a buddhist. Life will be ok.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 14, 2021 - 7:26am.

YoungShoveler Go big in 2009

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 14, 2021 - 10:16am.

Young sdr one word.... Amazon

Submitted by gzz on April 14, 2021 - 2:34pm.

My first post in 2012 was telling people to not worry about interest rates going up.

https://www.piggington.com/dear_people_c...

This is even more true now than nine years ago:

"It is very simple: there are more people who want to save than there are credit-worthy people who want to borrow. "

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 14, 2021 - 3:35pm.

I have to laugh because you were mostly correct with that post on 12/17/2012. I remember that time with crystal clear vision. I had to refinance my first by the end of 2012. I was watching rates all year very closely. On 11/17/2012 the rate dropped from 3.125 to 3% for only a day or two.

That is when I locked in on a $417,000 cash out 30 yr fixed loan to consolidate a first and most of second subordinating the balance of the second. That was also a zero cost loan for a self employed individual. Rates may have been slightly lower for less complicated loans but that was the day.

My refi closed 1/17/2013 60 days later. That day (11/17/12) was the absolute bottom for rates for about 8 years. It was probably the only time in my life I caught an exact bottom. After that rates went up but not much hitting 4ish but staying mostly in the mid 3% range and remained the bottom until last year when refied I down to 2.625%.

Submitted by svelte on April 14, 2021 - 3:45pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
it is very hard to predict the future though. at the time, i remember thinking in 07 that well, maybe the bulls are right, maybe it will all double again. i suppose it could have with the right conditions. but it didn't. its easy to look back and laugh butit's difficult to knwo exactly when a bubble is too inflaeted, when it will burst and when th e madness will end (if in fact it does in your lifetime.). still, it's pretty funny.

In the future, youngscaredy, you will stop drinking and become a buddhist. Life will be ok.

Old man, look at my life. I'm a lot like you were.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 15, 2021 - 3:27am.

svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
it is very hard to predict the future though. at the time, i remember thinking in 07 that well, maybe the bulls are right, maybe it will all double again. i suppose it could have with the right conditions. but it didn't. its easy to look back and laugh butit's difficult to knwo exactly when a bubble is too inflaeted, when it will burst and when th e madness will end (if in fact it does in your lifetime.). still, it's pretty funny.

In the future, youngscaredy, you will stop drinking and become a buddhist. Life will be ok.

Old man, look at my life. I'm a lot like you were.

I havent changed my mind on that thought. However im caring less.

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