San Marcos Price Reduction

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Submitted by ocrenter on April 25, 2006 - 11:22pm

I have been giving sdrealtor a hard time at the other topic "Median Price Down in North County" by showing the following two properties:

xx7 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Listing Price: $550,000 - $599,876
Last Purchased: Dec 03 $460,000

and comparing the asking price of the first home with the sale price of the second home.

xx5 Via Del Caballo, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Mar 06 $625,000

There was a lot of back and forth about lot premium and lot size and upgrades to try to account for the $75,000 in price difference in two homes with the same sqft and same floorplan.

All of that, I believe, is now rendered completely pointless because of this new development. As of today 4/25/06, there has been additional price drop down to $539,000 on the first home. Why? Because this home is currently in pre-foreclosure.

If you recall, this home was purchased for $460,000 in 12/03. A look into the loan doc's indicates a 80/20, zero down loan. Assuming a 2 year fixed loan on the 80% portion, this means this person just experienced a reset of his mortgage 12/05. After 3 months of paying at the higher rate, he is defaulting and going into foreclosure.

To avoid foreclosure, all he has to do is keep lowering the price until someone bites, and this can get as low as $490,000 for him not to lose money on this sale. What would the sale of a home at $490,000 do to comps in this neighborhood? Let's not even go so low as that, what would it do to the comps if he gets a buyer at the current reduced pricing of $539,000.

The next question of course is: what happens if there's another foreclosure in the neighborhood and the owner decides to slash prices? Well, we shall see, as xx7's neighbor xx2 has now just entered into pre-foreclosure this month, we'll see if xx2 throw their hat into the ever expanding San Diego Inventory of homes for sale.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 19, 2009 - 5:09pm.

87 wasn't a crash. that wasn't even a dip. that was a blip.

someone has to start the trend! often it is the idiots who lead the way!

people overdramatize, so a blip becomes a dip, a dip a crash, etc.

but i guess this is the beginning of a slow-motion crash.

Submitted by BGinRB on February 19, 2009 - 6:12pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like "victory no return" - is it "victory, no return" (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or "victory no, return" (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor - your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 22, 2009 - 12:03pm.

BG
I've got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you'd know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we'd end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time...................

Submitted by BGinRB on March 6, 2009 - 5:20pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a - -

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It's fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 17, 2011 - 10:00pm.

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400"s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

Submitted by lindismith on January 18, 2011 - 9:02am.

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2011 - 10:22am.

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

Submitted by stockstradr on January 18, 2011 - 1:28pm.

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K - $375K.

I'm betting we see those prices again within one year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2011 - 2:18pm.

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I'm always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

Submitted by Scarlett on May 7, 2011 - 11:40pm.

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 8, 2011 - 6:26pm.

wow, a blast from the past.

looks like things have since stabilized in this community in the high 300k to low 400k range.

this community actually held up a lot better compared to neighboring homes in Silver Crest with bigger 2700 sqft homes in the same price range.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 8, 2011 - 8:10pm.

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

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