San Marcos Price Reduction

User Forum Topic
Submitted by ocrenter on April 25, 2006 - 11:22pm

I have been giving sdrealtor a hard time at the other topic "Median Price Down in North County" by showing the following two properties:

xx7 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Listing Price: $550,000 - $599,876
Last Purchased: Dec 03 $460,000

and comparing the asking price of the first home with the sale price of the second home.

xx5 Via Del Caballo, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Mar 06 $625,000

There was a lot of back and forth about lot premium and lot size and upgrades to try to account for the $75,000 in price difference in two homes with the same sqft and same floorplan.

All of that, I believe, is now rendered completely pointless because of this new development. As of today 4/25/06, there has been additional price drop down to $539,000 on the first home. Why? Because this home is currently in pre-foreclosure.

If you recall, this home was purchased for $460,000 in 12/03. A look into the loan doc's indicates a 80/20, zero down loan. Assuming a 2 year fixed loan on the 80% portion, this means this person just experienced a reset of his mortgage 12/05. After 3 months of paying at the higher rate, he is defaulting and going into foreclosure.

To avoid foreclosure, all he has to do is keep lowering the price until someone bites, and this can get as low as $490,000 for him not to lose money on this sale. What would the sale of a home at $490,000 do to comps in this neighborhood? Let's not even go so low as that, what would it do to the comps if he gets a buyer at the current reduced pricing of $539,000.

The next question of course is: what happens if there's another foreclosure in the neighborhood and the owner decides to slash prices? Well, we shall see, as xx7's neighbor xx2 has now just entered into pre-foreclosure this month, we'll see if xx2 throw their hat into the ever expanding San Diego Inventory of homes for sale.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 7, 2008 - 6:23pm.

JWM
In Nov 2007, my statement was in reference to prices by the end of 2007. The 500's held until several weeks ago (6 months later) which I pointed out a month ago and indicated again that going forward was an entirely different story. Today that entirely different story is playing out exactly as I said it would. If anything, my credibility is higher than ever.

Enjoy the miserable desert jackass.

Submitted by JWM in SD on July 7, 2008 - 7:02pm.

I just read through the threads again the comment stands as being absolute. You keep wanting to say you are right based on timing of a few mos to a year. So What. That is only important to your clients that you have plausible denial when they lose that instant equity they thought they had when you made sale.

Sorry, but you've lost and your efforts are transparent at best. The prices have dropped to the level ocrenter predicted back in November 07. He was off by six months. Do you really think the knifecatcher at 414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 really cares that the value was 100K higher in April???? They lost real money you idiot and they did so by listeing to a realtor.

I'll make sure I pass the ketchup. I hear crow is kind of gamey.

Submitted by 5yearwaiter on July 7, 2008 - 7:45pm.

If you folks watch there is another thread called Saddleback way San Marcos 92078. This thread brought more clear sales in recent weeks. There is a steep price reduction like -200k price reduced from original value and some homes even -250 to 300K all these are gated community as well as 3000 sft to 3500 sft.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 7, 2008 - 8:08pm.

I could care less if the knifecatcher at 414 Camino Hermosa care that the value in April was 100K higher as he would never have been my client. My client would have been the seller who pocketed the extra $100,000 you jackass!

OCR made that prediction for about 18 months. If you make claims like that in a declining market eventually anyone will be proven right. The skill isnt picking a point that will be hit while a market is headed in an obvious direction it's getting the timing right.

I have clients that bought in 2005 who arent underwater. I know what I'm doing and I do it well. Unfortunately the same cant be said for you who is now forced to subject his family to 120 degree heat in the Summer for the sake of employment. Hell, I'd move to Chi Town before the desert on a full time basis. There is only one loser here and its pretty apparent whom that is.

Ciao!

Submitted by JWM in SD on July 7, 2008 - 9:37pm.

"OCR made that prediction for about 18 months."

No, he didn't. And even if he did, you could make the same argument about every housing bear since 2004...including Rich himself.

"The skill isnt picking a point that will be hit while a market is headed in an obvious direction it's getting the timing right." Yeah, if you're daytrading maybe. This is real estate dumbass, it doesn't turn on the dime. The obviouse direction for anyone who had clue was down and is still down so timing doesn't matter right now.

"I have clients that bought in 2005 who arent underwater." Prove it.

"Unfortunately the same cant be said for you who is now forced to subject his family to 120 degree heat in the Summer for the sake of employment. Hell, I'd move to Chi Town before the desert on a full time basis. There is only one loser here and its pretty apparent whom that is."

Ummm, that move is a result of my wife being active duty military j*goff.

"Hell, I'd move to Chi Town before the desert on a full time basis."

Actually, I like heat more than digging out snow. 30+ years of Chicago winters will do that you. Besides, we can always drive down to SD or LA pretty much every weekend since we have family there.

"There is only one loser here and its pretty apparent whom that is." Before you hurl insults, maybe you should check your grammar.

"

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 7, 2008 - 11:49pm.

You truly area glutton for punishment. First you ignore the point which is that the sellers in that hood still had time to hold out for a higher price than OCR claimed they could get. He made that claim for 18 months and several weeks ago someone else was able to sell that model in the 500's.

While RE markets dont turn on a dime, the dollars involved are huge. Timing makes a BIG difference. Most Realtors and consumers for that matter think $5,000 is no big deal. Personally, I never spend my clients money for them and when they take their own money lightly I usually ask them something to the effect of how quick would you be to hand over $5,000 if I stacked 50 $100 bills in your hand right now. Understanding the timing of things allows you to know when to say no to an offer and when to say yes. Timing is always important and makes the difference between matching the market and beating the market (whatever it may be at a given time). Case closed on that one.

Regarding the client that bought in 2005 who isnt underwater. There is one regular poster on this board that I have communicated personally with. You all know him well. I have already emailed him the comps to prove it. If I havent proven it to him, I will encourage him to label me a fraud. If that doesnt satisfy you, I can have let Rich know I proved it to him (as it was Rich who helped put us together). I would prefer not to bother Rich though with something as petty as this.

I've had 30+ years of digging out of snow myself. I also visit the desert 3 to 5 times a year and love the desert a few days at a time that is. Given the choice between full time imprisonment in a furnace with limited culture, no pro sports, etc. and icy cold winters with a real city nearby and pro sports I'd take the later every time. BTW, with gas around $5/gallon those quick jaunts down to the beach every weekend will cost you at least $50 a pop.

And lastly, not proof reading my posts and the rsultant poor spelling/grammer has always been my signature a round here.

Submitted by JWM in SD on July 8, 2008 - 7:27am.

"You truly area glutton for punishment. First you ignore the point which is that the sellers in that hood still had time to hold out for a higher price than OCR claimed they could get. He made that claim for 18 months and several weeks ago someone else was able to sell that model in the 500's."

No dimwit, he identified a trend and predicted a point on it.

"Understanding the timing of things allows you to know when to say no to an offer and when to say yes. Timing is always important and makes the difference between matching the market and beating the market (whatever it may be at a given time). Case closed on that one."

Your logic only works for those who are in the buying mindset and willing to justify in the face of a declining market that will last several more years. You a fool and you are doing your clients a disservice.

I dare you to direct your clients to this site and to OcRenters site as well.

"Regarding the client that bought in 2005 who isnt underwater. There is one regular poster on this board that I have communicated personally with. You all know him well. I have already emailed him the comps to prove it. If I havent proven it to him, I will encourage him to label me a fraud. If that doesnt satisfy you, I can have let Rich know I proved it to him (as it was Rich who helped put us together). I would prefer not to bother Rich though with something as petty as this."

Define "underwater". If you mean that their loan to value ratio is less than .80 then my question is how much of their downpayment is still in tact as this point. Oh, and if you try to tell me that the comps don't show any erosion in value relative to 2005 then I really know you are full of shit.

"I've had 30+ years of digging out of snow myself. I also visit the desert 3 to 5 times a year and love the desert a few days at a time that is. Given the choice between full time imprisonment in a furnace with limited culture, no pro sports, etc. and icy cold winters with a real city nearby and pro sports I'd take the later every time. BTW, with gas around $5/gallon those quick jaunts down to the beach every weekend will cost you at least $50 a pop."

I see you glossed right over the reason for the move to that area. It wasn't by choice. YOu live in a Navy Town you f*cktard. Do you not have any understanding of what it is like to be in a military family?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 8, 2008 - 8:11am.

You are dope. Don't you understand there are two sides to every transaction mushbrains? My logic works for sellers dumbass who are trying to get the best price in a challenging market.

The only reason I dont direct my clients to this site is for preserving my anonymity here. They get the same info and viewpoint from me directly. Most of my buyer clients are sitting on the sidelines unless we find something very compelling. I lose a fair amount of business each year because I preach patience to my clients. Many become impatient and find another agent who will sell them something. Last year I lost between $50K and $100K this way but I sleep at nite.

The comps showing ZERO errosion of value for my 2005 buyer client are sitting in the email box of a prominent PIGG.

And you glossed over the misery you are heading for living in the desert.

I have been on the record on this site with numerous predictions. Overall my record is unmatched by anyone here regarding prices and direction for what I predicted. I have been heavily bearish since I came here but with a sense of feet on the street realism as to how this would play out. You try to portray me as some Realtwhore Bull which I am anything but. You have proven nothing except that you can post links to articles we can all easy find elsewhere on the net. Later fool, I'm done with you.

Submitted by Rockemsock on July 8, 2008 - 10:41am.

I hope you two don't mind me interrupting your engaging banter to answer the question about SEH construction...but oh well.

Our home was built in 2002 and we've been in it as renters for just over a year without any problems whatsoever. During the wind/wildfires last year our young tree in the front yard blew over (snapped in half) but otherwise it's been a great house. I know many of the people on the street, and I have yet to hear of any regular problems with construction...but perhaps because many have been in for 4-5 years or more, the problems have all been settled in the past.

And I agree with the runner, the community is VERY friendly...almost too friendly for those of us that don't like everyone on the block being "up in my bizness".

The Albertsons just opened, which is really nice. And we were just sent some artist rendering of the SEH Health Club...who knows when that will be complete though (I'm not holding my breath). I wouldn't say that it has great freeway access, because it's at minimum 5 miles from the closest one (78). But it is incredibly quiet and has a great community feel. I loved Encinitas a lot, but 4th street, Neptune, and Village Park, were all much noisier with much less community in my opinion.

Okay...sorry for the intermission...now back to the entertainment. FIGHT!

Submitted by JWM in SD on July 9, 2008 - 9:48pm.

"The comps showing ZERO errosion of value for my 2005 buyer client are sitting in the email box of a prominent PIGG."

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results........

Submitted by BGinRB on August 23, 2008 - 10:24pm.
Submitted by BGinRB on February 18, 2009 - 12:44pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400's. End of story.

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a - -

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 18, 2009 - 12:51pm.

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying "you can believe blah blah blah but there's no way in hell that can happen". On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 18, 2009 - 3:00pm.

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

Submitted by BGinRB on February 18, 2009 - 4:10pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong - he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400's but mid 300's.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 18, 2009 - 5:12pm.

we are nowhere near a "complete collapse of the entire economy" ... indeed, we've had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; "end of story", no "unless there's a tsunami" on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that's why there's risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

Submitted by waiting hawk on February 18, 2009 - 9:10pm.

scaredycat wrote:
indeed, we've had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market.

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 18, 2009 - 11:29pm.

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400's would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I'm looking smart these days.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 18, 2009 - 11:34pm.

so, uh, where will it be in 6-12 months.

you dont know. no one knows.

also-- 50% off the dow is not a crash. it's a dip.

80-90% off is a crash.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 18, 2009 - 11:40pm.

You guys need to stop threadskimming and go back to read the whole thing. The post of mine that was quoted was a follow-up to this one by OCR

Submitted by ocrenter on August 20, 2006 - 11:14pm.

"Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed." sdrealtor, 6/06.

San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I'm now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000's mid to late next year.

So he was calling for low 400's in late 2007 which proved wrong.

You also missed my follow up post:

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 21, 2006 - 9:48am.

OCR,
I stand by my comments on 6/6 but dont disagree that we could get into the mid 400's by the end of next year.

I called for mid 400's by late 2007 which proved correct.

It has since taken another year to get to the low 400's.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 18, 2009 - 11:44pm.

scaredycat
are you insane brother? 50% off the dow is not a crash, its a dip? You are joking? Maybe in your $5,000 portofolio its a dip but talk to someone with a 7 figure portfolio and they will set you straight.

When I get a chance I'll rub my magic 8 ball and will be back with a prediction for 6 to 12 months on those houses. based upon my track record you would be wise to beleive them

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 19, 2009 - 12:13am.

it's a crash if you're highly leveraged i guess, or bought everything right at the top. if your purchases were made over time, it's more dip-like. %'age is %'age, regardless of whether it's a million or a thousand. almost nobody's down 50%, it's more like 20-40%, depending on your history...lots of guys with lots of money acccrued over a long epriod of time are probably just flat...kinda like homeowners.

I had nothing int he market long for a couple years, all prudentbear and gold.

im still short and long gold and waiting for the real crash, not this little dip, now peoplea r ejust kinda nervous, scared, going, man, I'm like break even for 10 years. ..when people go, HOLY F!!!; i'm actually gonna lose my shirt. now that there's a crash, not a guy who had 2 million and now has 1.3 million. when he's down to 162,000, now that's a crash.

like the san marcos house, when it's down to 119,000. now that there's a crash...

can't happen?

i dont know...

Submitted by waiting hawk on February 19, 2009 - 12:20am.

scaredycat wrote:
so, uh, where will it be in 6-12 months.

you dont know. no one knows.

also-- 50% off the dow is not a crash. it's a dip.

80-90% off is a crash.


haha dip.. i like it.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 19, 2009 - 12:55am.

remember, we're not in a depression, so this cannot be the crash. this is justa recession, so, dip. when we're ina depression, we'll have had the actual crash. you'll know because you'll feel broke.

Submitted by BGinRB on February 19, 2009 - 10:31am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I said it would never happen at that time.

I like how you combine 'never' and 'that time'. Very pythian.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2009 - 11:20am.

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400's at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 19, 2009 - 12:04pm.

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what's going to happen. if i were to guess, I'd say down 12%, but i wouldn't be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

Submitted by BGinRB on February 19, 2009 - 1:12pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400's at that time was an impossibility IMO.

I did. I believe you are using 'never' incorrectly.
'Never' is absolute. Saying 'never at that time' makes no sense. Same with constructs like 'It will never happen as long as Condition A.'

E.g. if I say 'it will rain tomorrow' and you respond with 'never' what you are saying is 'it will never rain', not 'it will not rain tomorrow'.

But don't let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2009 - 3:08pm.

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

Submitted by waiting hawk on February 19, 2009 - 5:05pm.

scaredycat wrote:
remember, we're not in a depression, so this cannot be the crash. this is justa recession, so, dip. when we're ina depression, we'll have had the actual crash. you'll know because you'll feel broke.

So everyone calls the crash of 87 a dip of 87?
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=crash+o...

Only you are calling it a dip so it must be one?
Stop being an idiot..

Was that a depression?

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