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Submitted by jimminycrikut on January 30, 2011 - 6:20pm

Are we close to the bottom (price) in San Elijo Area? I am interest in buying a home in San Elijo (~3200 sqft). What is the reasonable price range in this area?

Submitted by Scarlett on May 7, 2011 - 10:38pm.

bump

Submitted by ocrenter on May 8, 2011 - 8:23am.

scanning over 3000 sqft recently sold SEH homes, you are looking at between mid 500k to mid 600k. I say getting close to the mid 500k mark would be good. I really doubt you'll ever see these homes go down to less than 500k.

here's a good one:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-110002417-17...

3400 sqft for $570k, came down from $900k at peak.

Submitted by SD Realtor on May 8, 2011 - 8:28am.

I would agree with ocr. You missed the bottom by about 2 years. No we are not close to a bottom. You will need to wait for interest rates to start to run up again which will take awhile. If you can hit mid 500s for something decent then you will do well. When long term mortgage rates run up past 6 or 7% then prices will reduce slowly. That may take awhile though.

Submitted by ocrenter on May 8, 2011 - 8:40am.

3400 sqft for $570k

just running some numbers on something like this, if you have 20% down, we are looking at $2250 on monthly mortgage cost. property tax/MR/HOA is another $900/month. Total monthly housing cost is $3150.

I do believe that is less than rental cost in the area. correct me if I'm wrong.

Submitted by briansd1 on May 8, 2011 - 9:17am.

SD Realtor wrote:
I would agree with ocr. You missed the bottom by about 2 years. No we are not close to a bottom. You will need to wait for interest rates to start to run up again which will take awhile. If you can hit mid 500s for something decent then you will do well. When long term mortgage rates run up past 6 or 7% then prices will reduce slowly. That may take awhile though.

I also agree, for that area... but there's something else at play also.

How many of the peak $900k houses still have not foreclosed? Now that the same houses are selling for mid $500k, what are the incentives for those who bought at the peak to hold on? Maybe we haven't seen all the strategic defaults pay out yet.

Submitted by SD Realtor on May 8, 2011 - 10:12am.

The banks have already been able to cope with dribbling out defaults. The question is not whether there are still more foreclosures to come. We already know that there are alot of foreclosures and short sales still in the pipe, more then likely a few more years worth.

It should be painfully apparent that distress will not crash the market as the powers that be have a come up with a strategy to deal with that issue. Relying on that to bring your pricing down is a poor strategy.

Submitted by briansd1 on May 8, 2011 - 1:00pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
The banks have already been able to cope with dribbling out defaults. The question is not whether there are still more foreclosures to come. We already know that there are alot of foreclosures and short sales still in the pipe, more then likely a few more years worth.

It should be painfully apparent that distress will not crash the market as the powers that be have a come up with a strategy to deal with that issue. Relying on that to bring your pricing down is a poor strategy.

Some have argued that government intervention is bound to run out of gas and fail eventually.

But I agree that the bailout efforts have worked in stabilizing the markets.

I believe that as the foreclosures continue, prices may not increase but selection will. For example if you're eying certain houses that sold at $900k, in a market where prices are now $500k, there's a good chance that the houses you're eying will become available for purchase.

If mortgage rates go up to 6% and above, what will they do house prices? Time will tell.

Some believe that the level of US debt will eventually cause much higher interest rates.

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