San Diego drastically outperforms Bay and LA on rents

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Submitted by gzz on June 23, 2021 - 8:30am

LA City only and all of the Bay area see large rent declines.

San Diego is +7% on 1 bedrooms and +18% on two bedrooms.

https://www.apartmentguide.com/blog/apar...

Submitted by gzz on June 23, 2021 - 8:41am.

Alternative source: https://www.realtor.com/research/march-2...

SD and Sacramento are still on top, but much lower rents and increases.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2021 - 9:20am.

Yes there seems to be more and more evidence of a southern migration in the state

Submitted by an on June 23, 2021 - 10:00am.

In the submarket that I'm keeping an eye on for the last 15 years (Mira Mesa), house rent was low (relative to 1/1 & 2/2 condos) and wasn't moving very much before last year. 4/3 houses were renting for $3200-3400/month and smaller 4/2 & 3/2 were renting for $2600-2800/month for about 5 years. I just checked Zillow and the big houses are all around $4000-4600/month now. While the smaller houses are renting for $3200-3400. That's a huge jump. While 1/1 & 2/2 condo rent price haven't gone up much over the last 2 years. 1/1 are still around $1700/month and 2/2 are still around $2200/month.

The rent gap between big and small houses were around 400-600/month for the last 15 years. However, now, they're 800-1200/month. Which is quite interesting and might show a shift in who's moving here.

Submitted by Coronita on June 23, 2021 - 12:27pm.

cha-ching! carmel valley $5000/month is looking like a steal for my tenant. thats ok. as long as they stay for awhile....and id they dont thats ok too, jack up rents if they move. cant find many sfh in 92130 under $5000/month.

win win.

1/1 is now pushing closer to 1850/month btw.

in 92130 One paseo wants $3000 for a 1/1 and 5600/month for a 3/3. great time to be a landlord in SD.

Using a term in street racing....time to gap others...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 23, 2021 - 2:37pm.

Don't know about SF, but LA the homeless situation is totally out of control.

They celebrate hiring several more homeless managers (for lack of better word) to hire more people to hand out more money and provide trash service to homeless encampments, meanwhile more homeless move in.

Submitted by gzz on June 23, 2021 - 2:55pm.

SF homelessness is much worse in 2021 than late 2019. Major shopping streets are 1/3 boarded up and covered in tents that block 80-100% of the sidewalk.

The sidewalks are also heavily blocked by homeless people selling all the stuff they shoplifted on spread out on blankets. Just random CVS type stuff in its packaging.

It was really a sad sight. My girlfriend had never been there and I was looking forward to showing her around, and we repeatedly had to walk down the street to because the sidewalks were completely blocked.

All of this was normal in the Tenderloin area before, but now it has spread all over the city.

Submitted by an on June 23, 2021 - 3:11pm.

All of this homeless problem wouldn't matter if there's no working from home option. People will complain but they'll still be there.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 23, 2021 - 3:15pm.

"All of this was normal in the Tenderloin area before, but now it has spread all over the city."

Same in LA used to be confined to skid row in downtown, now its all over the city (and not just the downtown parts).

Submitted by EconProf on June 24, 2021 - 7:15am.

Given all the above well-documented trends, here are some questions for readers of what all this portends for San Diego's future:
1. To what extent are LA's and Bay area's homelessness problems (and their government policies that enable it) fueling their population exodus?
2. To what extent are SD's rent gains and house price gains due to arguably better government and conservative reputation (albeit now rapidly changing)?
3. Since CA state policies affect all 3 of these big cities, and said policies combined with our weather attract the homeless from all over the country (and now, from the world when they come to the US and pick a state to live in), what will San Diego's future look like in terms of demographics, fiscal situation, cost of living, and attractiveness to business?

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 24, 2021 - 8:44am.

1. Minimal if even measureable
2. None
3. Continued growth driven in large part to the increasing size, reputation, growth and excellence of UCSD and the Biotech/Tech core al;ready in place. Always bumps on the road but only rising long term. This is an incredible City/MSA and will only continue to prosper.

Submitted by Coronita on June 24, 2021 - 11:13am.

.

Submitted by Coronita on June 24, 2021 - 11:19am.

EconProf wrote:
Given all the above well-documented trends, here are some questions for readers of what all this portends for San Diego's future:
1. To what extent are LA's and Bay area's homelessness problems (and their government policies that enable it) fueling their population exodus?
2. To what extent are SD's rent gains and house price gains due to arguably better government and conservative reputation (albeit now rapidly changing)?
3. Since CA state policies affect all 3 of these big cities, and said policies combined with our weather attract the homeless from all over the country (and now, from the world when they come to the US and pick a state to live in), what will San Diego's future look like in terms of demographics, fiscal situation, cost of living, and attractiveness to business?

1. don't care
2. don't care
3. don't care

Crypto and housing baby... Cha-ching!

Submitted by gzz on June 24, 2021 - 11:39am.

1. None. If the growth of squalor in SF causes a condo to go from 1.3 to 1.1 million, that's not going to affect population in any material way.

Long term, the reason SF Bay is losing population is that as people get richer, they want more living space and to live with fewer people, and are willing to pay a lot of money to do so, but there's not a corresponding increase in livable space.

2. It's part of it for sure. I think we're just about the best run large city in the USA.

3. California does well at both attracting and creating rich people, and then taxing them. The fiscal situation of the state is very strong with a gigantic surplus. SD will continue to be a better place to live, and people will continue to pay more and more to live here.

Submitted by flyer on June 24, 2021 - 12:29pm.

Understand your concerns, EP, and they may well prove to be true. That said, I feel that many of us who decide to stay in CA, despite all of the issues, and have what we and our families need to live wonderful lives here for many years to come, don't really factor the negatives into our decision.

As I've said before, I'm sure you could have chosen to stay also, but you made your choice based upon other criteria that was more important to you. I wish you the best in that, but I don't think you'll receive too much support from those who choose to stay in CA.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 24, 2021 - 1:09pm.

Yet another example of someone who made money in CA they could never had made anywhere else taking that money and running. But rather than be grateful he is using the opportunity to make pissy political swips. Take your money, live and enjoy your life elsewhere and those of here will continue to reap the rewards you left behind and dont seem to appreciate.

Submitted by EconProf on June 27, 2021 - 8:35am.

My detractors here disagree with me mainly because I am looking at long-term trends in demographics, governmental policies by state, and COVID-influences on changing workplace choices by businesses and individuals. The current and recent bounce in SD prices and rents are due to its haven for escapees from the Bay area and LA, the sugar-high of temporarily low interest rates, its everlasting shortage of buildable land combined with nimbyism, and the ongoing appeal of San Diego for its weather and amenities. In future years these advantages will be offset by the differing governmental policies among the states. The exodus from blue states and cities to red will continue and likely accelerate. COVID-induced changes in the workplace has pushed people to outlying suburbs of all the big cities, but also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas and "check in" at the home office in the big city only when necessary.
These likely future trends are well-documented, and it is not surprising that many do not agree.

Submitted by gzz on June 27, 2021 - 8:56am.

“ also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas ”

Citation needed.

You do sound increasingly bitter and engaging in confirmation bias reasoning to justify your decisions.

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 8:58am.

EconProf wrote:
My detractors here disagree with me mainly because I am looking at long-term trends in demographics, governmental policies by state, and COVID-influences on changing workplace choices by businesses and individuals. The current and recent bounce in SD prices and rents are due to its haven for escapees from the Bay area and LA, the sugar-high of temporarily low interest rates, its everlasting shortage of buildable land combined with nimbyism, and the ongoing appeal of San Diego for its weather and amenities. In future years these advantages will be offset by the differing governmental policies among the states. The exodus from blue states and cities to red will continue and likely accelerate. COVID-induced changes in the workplace has pushed people to outlying suburbs of all the big cities, but also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas and "check in" at the home office in the big city only when necessary.
These likely future trends are well-documented, and it is not surprising that many do not agree.

We are more curious why you arent blogging on Utah version of piggington. Bored much in utah? dont blame you. i would.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 27, 2021 - 8:59am.

gzz wrote:
“ also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas ”

Citation needed.

You do sound increasingly bitter and engaging in confirmation bias reasoning to justify your decisions.

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 11:31am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
gzz wrote:
“ also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas ”

Citation needed.

You do sound increasingly bitter and engaging in confirmation bias reasoning to justify your decisions.

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

true. some people might really like locations other than san diego. however, those that do usually dont come back and constantly keep trying to pester others how bad san diego is long after they relocated, because normally they are really happy with the move and could care less, let alone take the time to actually continue comment on a place they no longer live in. The times when people do that are usually when they move and have some sort of regret, possibly they main reason for moving had nothing to do with the economic or political reasons, and those reasons are only aftermath rationalization of their move for other reasons, that might not be completely their 100% desire..that or they are so bored with their new life at their new place they have nothing better to do.

but in short i agree with you. i understand of people relocate because they can no longer afford to live in high cost CA area and want a better life elsewhere..and its understandable if on the way out they ate sort of bitter about it. I would be. But i dont understand people who have no problem with affordablity here, move over stupid political reasons, and now are miserable where they are. I mean, i guess if one is content with just playing bingo at the senior rec center, i guess it doesnt matter whether thats in san diego or elsewhere.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 27, 2021 - 11:44am.

Coronita wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
gzz wrote:
“ also prompted the high-earners to pick low-cost, low-tax areas ”

Citation needed.

You do sound increasingly bitter and engaging in confirmation bias reasoning to justify your decisions.

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

true. some people might really like locations other than san diego. however, those that do usually dont come back and constantly keep trying to pester others how bad san diego is long after they relocated, because normally they are really happy with the move and could care less, let alone take the time to actually continue comment on a place they no longer live in. The times when people do that are usually when they move and have some sort of regret, possibly they main reason for moving had nothing to do with the economic or political reasons, and those reasons are only aftermath rationalization of their move for other reasons, that might not be completely their 100% desire..that or they are so bored with their new life at their new place they have nothing better to do...

Im kind of bored with life generally. Have a strong urge to upend everything and start new. The rational move is to stay put and stay the course.

But there's something to be said for just resetting everything.

I'm just too damn petty...relocation costs, home sale costs, higher tax rate. How can a person so dull and calculating ever move and try a new gig...I am in a post covid torpor...realizing, like everyone, that my life may be stuck in bad routines

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 11:38am.

i wish i had more free time. theres a dozen or so things i can think of Id like to do in CA.

There is something i would like to do. register a dirty non carb car in a state like utah that is really ls
lacking in emissions standards.. then i can race in those states as dirty as my car can be, and come home and drive a clean car here so i dont need to breathe whatever my car spews out. Forget catalytic converters. skip right to the straight pipes...

Submitted by svelte on June 27, 2021 - 11:37am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

Doesn't have to be a crap location, you can probably get a condo in Surfside, FL pretty cheap about now.

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 11:40am.

Hang on... 8G...

BINGO!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 27, 2021 - 11:47am.

svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

Doesn't have to be a crap location, you can probably get a condo in Surfside, FL pretty cheap about now.

No way that tower fell on its own. FBI plot.

The other towers prob. Cheap now.

Making me reconsider downtown SD highrise

Submitted by svelte on June 27, 2021 - 11:53am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

Doesn't have to be a crap location, you can probably get a condo in Surfside, FL pretty cheap about now.

No way that tower fell on its own. FBI plot.

The other towers prob. Cheap now.

Making me reconsider downtown SD highrise

Look at this! The penthouse, which is now a ground level pile of rubble, sold for $2.8M seven weeks ago!

From the ad: "This condo has endless potential for one-third the price of new construction units in area!"

That has to be the worst timing ever.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8777-...?

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 12:20pm.

4E

BINGO!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 27, 2021 - 12:42pm.

svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:

What's the point of earning a lot of money if you have to live in a crap location.

Doesn't have to be a crap location, you can probably get a condo in Surfside, FL pretty cheap about now.

No way that tower fell on its own. FBI plot.

The other towers prob. Cheap now.

Making me reconsider downtown SD highrise

Look at this! The penthouse, which is now a ground level pile of rubble, sold for $2.8M seven weeks ago!

From the ad: "This condo has endless potential for one-third the price of new construction units in area!"

That has to be the worst timing ever.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/8777-Collins-Ave-PENTHOUSE-A-Miami-Beach-FL-33154/2074008564_zpid/?

That's funny. On the bright side, if you were out playing golf and had great insurance, you'd feel like everything's gravy

Submitted by Escoguy on June 27, 2021 - 12:59pm.

They were discussing some pretty steep assessments to get the building fixed.

Apparently there was some pushback due to the amounts 200K per unit and up.

I think there is much more to this story than many will want to come to light.

If this can happen with a 40 y.o. building then???

Are older buildings structurally sound?
What kind of maintenance program is needed to prevent this?
How to prevent condo boards from delaying needed repairs?
How will lenders react?
What will this do to insurance rates?
Is the Japanese mindset of tear down the older property more appropriate?

I don't think they will find any survivors.

Submitted by Coronita on June 27, 2021 - 1:07pm.

Escoguy wrote:
They were discussing some pretty steep assessments to get the building fixed.

Apparently there was some pushback due to the amounts 200K per unit and up.

I think there is much more to this story than many will want to come to light.

If this can happen with a 40 y.o. building then???

Are older buildings structurally sound?
What kind of maintenance program is needed to prevent this?
How to prevent condo boards from delaying needed repairs?
How will lenders react?
What will this do to insurance rates?
Is the Japanese mindset of tear down the older property more appropriate?

I don't think they will find any survivors.

balcony failures are not uncommon... But something of this magnitude, doesnt happen often.

https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-m...

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