San Diego Continued Modest Job Recovery in August

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 19, 2011 - 5:25pm
Readers may note that when discussing job data, I always refer to the Employment Development Department's "estimates."  The monthly job numbers everyone discusses are very much estimates, and are subject to frequent and sometimes large revisions.  (Data nerds might be interested in my examination of one particularly huge downward revision back at the start of the recession). 

The unusually robust seasonally-adjusted monthly job increase reported for July has, alas, been revised downward.  The EDD apparently overstated July employment growth by nearly 5,000 jobs.  However, local employment did still increase very slightly in July, when adjusted for seasonal factors.  And according to the latest estimates, it increased in August too.

Let's start with a look at the seasonally adjusted series, which gives the better idea of underlying job market strength.  The trend here is clearly one of fairly steady, if modest, growth:

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