Housing Bubble Resources

Articles on This Site

  • Evidence of a California Housing Bubble
    Contrary to popular perception, the fundamentals underpinning Southern California's explosive real estate boom are actually quite poor. So why have home prices risen so high? Because the local housing market is in the midst of a textbook speculative bubble.
  • Risks of a Serious Home Price Decline
    The probability of a serious housing downturn is much higher—and that of the oft-heralded "soft landing" much lower—than most people acknowledge.
  • A History of the Housing Bubble
    "If San Diego home prices do not reflect fundamentals, exactly how did they get to such rarified heights, and what keeps them aloft? It's a fair question, and an important one: understanding how the bubble started will be crucial in identifying how and when the bubble ends. The purpose of this article is to provide a very brief overview of how we got here."
  • On Rates, Part I: Why Are They So Low?
    "It is counterintuitive that US long-term interest rates have remained so low in the face of Fed rate hikes, record low household savings, record high trade and fiscal deficits, steeply rising energy and commodity prices, and unprecedented home equity-related wealth creation. This article discusses five factors that have interacted to help keep rates so low in spite of the above."
  • On Rates, Part II: Will They Stay This Low?
    "This article discusses three scenarios that could throw a wrench into the low-rate works. One of the three is unlikely to take place; the other two are almost inevitable."

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