Recession 2022-2122

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Coronita on February 11, 2020 - 12:46pm

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 11, 2020 - 1:04pm.

flu wrote:
I am fairly certain a recession will happen.

Me too.
1. Have the guts to predict it
2. Be as close as possible.

For real estate, you have a window of opportunity of several years. Have your money ready.

Submitted by Coronita on February 11, 2020 - 3:25pm.

Well, Brian. It doesn't require any guts to make any sort of prediction on an internet blog for which if one's thesis for his/her prediction doesn't pan out the way he/she is expecting, one can simply disappear and go into hiding only to resurface a few weeks later by resurrecting a completely unrelated thread to avoid being called out for those erroneous and politically motivated predictions.

Guts would have been if one actually put significant money on the table to back those predictions because then that's a prediction with conviction. To use the phrase often brought up on real estate, the person "has no skin in the game"...

Since that clearly wasn't done, well I'll see you when you later when you resurrect another thread to avoid this subject, lol.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 11, 2020 - 3:36pm.

2020 has not ended yet.
If you read my thread, you will see some explanations as to why the recession may be delayed.

As to money on the table, I will use the opportunity to buy an apartment building to boost my retirement income.

Submitted by paulflorez on February 11, 2020 - 8:09pm.

Did a non-serious post making fun of an old thread really need a new thread? Just post it in the old one.

Submitted by Coronita on February 11, 2020 - 8:52pm.

paulflorez wrote:
Did a non-serious post making fun of an old thread really need a new thread? Just post it in the old one.

yes. because 90% of the threads are now non serious since the lunatics took over. So two extra superfluous threads are not going to hurt.

Sure beats China is awesome thread, Trump thread, GOP thread, who will run in 2020 thread, impeachment thread, PE Ratio thread. I think there are a few real estate related thread left.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 12, 2020 - 7:53am.

Flu, the most childish comments come from you.

As the Chinese say, life is comprised of 12 year cycles. When planning your life and investing, it’s important to know approximately when recessions will happen, especially as they correspond to the stages of your life. That’s only smart.

Unlike you, I don’t expect those who watch the economy to make large single financial bets on what they expect to happen. But it’s wise to recognize the cycles and take action to the extent possible, not as a bet before but during the downturns because of window of opportunity they provide.

There are the deficit hawks who believe as a matter of laws of economics that hyper inflation are the results of deficit spending. I don’t expect them to take a financial position to their predictions. I would however love to know approximately within a couple years when hyper inflation will happen. I would hope that such people have the force of conviction to prepare for the outcome they are so certain of.

Submitted by paulflorez on February 16, 2020 - 12:35pm.

flu wrote:
paulflorez wrote:
Did a non-serious post making fun of an old thread really need a new thread? Just post it in the old one.

yes. because 90% of the threads are now non serious since the lunatics took over. So two extra superfluous threads are not going to hurt.

Sure beats China is awesome thread, Trump thread, GOP thread, who will run in 2020 thread, impeachment thread, PE Ratio thread. I think there are a few real estate related thread left.

The China thread linked an interesting YouTube video about AI, international politics and China’s real estate data. The impeachment thread was started by scaredyclassic, hardly a “lunatic”. Most of the threads I find here to be informative. The parody threads you are creating are just garbage taking up space.

Also, your original reply to me of just “Yes.” was better, because at least then you were subtly acknowledging it was just trollish behavior. Editing your comment to try to add some kind of sensible justification was a waste of time. Even if you think the other discussions should be censored because they add no value, don’t make the problem worse by contributing your own worthless posts.

Submitted by 42nate1 on February 23, 2020 - 8:08am.

Recessions come - they always do. The unknown is when. Unless the Coronavirus turns into a pandemic, the US is not going to go into a recession this year.

I am looking forward to the next recession. I have a long list of stocks I want to buy on sale.

My goal is also to buy a small apartment complex in the next recession. I was fortunate enough to buy two properties in 2008-2010. Not smart enough to aggressively buy more. Have bought some other properties since then. They cash flow, but missed the big appreciation gains.

I love the though of "one and done". A small complex at the right price point, and I don't need to ever purchase another property again.

Still have not figured out the down payment portion of this goal. I need a few more years.

Submitted by 42nate1 on February 23, 2020 - 8:08am.

Recessions come - they always do. The unknown is when. Unless the Coronavirus turns into a pandemic, the US is not going to go into a recession this year.

I am looking forward to the next recession. I have a long list of stocks I want to buy on sale.

My goal is also to buy a small apartment complex in the next recession. I was fortunate enough to buy two properties in 2008-2010. Not smart enough to aggressively buy more. Have bought some other properties since then. They cash flow, but missed the big appreciation gains.

I love the though of "one and done". A small complex at the right price point, and I don't need to ever purchase another property again.

Still have not figured out the down payment portion of this goal. I need a few more years.

Submitted by Coronita on February 23, 2020 - 11:05am.

42nate1 wrote:
Recessions come - they always do. The unknown is when. Unless the Coronavirus turns into a pandemic, the US is not going to go into a recession this year.

I am looking forward to the next recession. I have a long list of stocks I want to buy on sale.

My goal is also to buy a small apartment complex in the next recession. I was fortunate enough to buy two properties in 2008-2010. Not smart enough to aggressively buy more. Have bought some other properties since then. They cash flow, but missed the big appreciation gains.

I love the though of "one and done". A small complex at the right price point, and I don't need to ever purchase another property again.

Still have not figured out the down payment portion of this goal. I need a few more years.

I don't think anyone , inclusive , would disagree with you about an eventual recession. The mockery was about linking it to Trump or for that matter Obama or even Sanders. And for that matter the giddiness of any bad news that comes out lately, there's this audience that literally jumps up and down thinking "here's the big one coming".... and it's been going on for 4 years. 4 years and a lot of lost opportunity...I'm still trying to understand how their crystal ball is working out.

None of this imho would even be necessary if there was a longer term , regular , DRIP investment strategy in place. It still amazes me how some people dont do it , if at all, as a plan B backup plan, and still count on a one shot, one trick pony event. People still think over the long period they can beat the markets consistently by a one trick pony after giving up years (decades ?) of opportunity. Not everyone, obviously, some with D&G viewpoints.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 23, 2020 - 12:10pm.

Flu, Nate said that he’s been buying properties while preparing to buy something substantial during the next recession. Nobody has been waiting around doing nothing.

Submitted by Coronita on February 23, 2020 - 3:04pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Flu, Nate said that he’s been buying properties while preparing to buy something substantial during the next recession. Nobody has been waiting around doing nothing.

My comment wasn't directed at Nate. Where did I say Nate belongs in the the D&G category?

The D&G category is only reserved for a select few individuals. Those individuals know who the are, because they are the ones that have constantly trying to chase a negative theory to fit their often past 4 year wrong theory of failure, and have been also pretty vocal about seeing more enjoyment in seeing the failure of others rather than the successes of everyone else...most likely because of their own failures and shortcomings have distorted their thinking into thinking life only a zero sum game such that those in the D&G category need others to lose in order for them to win, and
"winning" is important as a matter of self-esteem... which is a pretty screwed up thought process imho.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on February 23, 2020 - 8:41pm.

You called?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 24, 2020 - 10:35am.

Flu, you’re not a positive person. You have a Laura Ingraham/Tucker Carlson type personality

Real estate wise it’s very wise to know when the recessions occur. You easily adjust your financial decisions to match the economic cycle.

Submitted by Coronita on February 24, 2020 - 11:02am.

Brian , Im actually pretty positive at least more so than you Brian and Spdrun. For example, see even when the markets are down 900, you think I really care? You guys feel you need to be right all the time. I don't. That's the big diference. That's why you always feel you need to get the last word in. And why you don't like it when people point out how dead wrong you are most of the time. And when you are dead wrong, you end going into hiding. Lol.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on February 24, 2020 - 11:07am.

I hope everyone dies but me. Ok now back into hiding

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 24, 2020 - 11:28am.

I stuck my neck out and predicted the next recession while nobody else did.
I still think I will be proven right, adjusted for the fact that the Fed has been preemptively fighting the next recession.

BTW, I don’t think spdrun is negative. He’s doesn’t like the consumerist capitalist system we have. He has the right to wish failure just like you wish China would fail. Actually the people predicting/wishing China’s failure have been wrong, wrong, wrong.
Just like the fiscal conservatives deficit hawks. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Ha! You don’t care when the markets fall. But you are compelled to post when they go up. Sure. you don’t care.

Submitted by Coronita on February 24, 2020 - 11:45am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I stuck my neck out and predicted the next recession while nobody else did.
I still think I will be proven right, adjusted for the fact that the Fed has been preemptively fighting the next recession.

BTW, I don’t think spdrun is negative. He’s doesn’t like the consumerist capitalist system we have. He has the right to wish failure just like you wish China would fail. Actually the people predicting/wishing China’s failure have been wrong, wrong, wrong.
Just like the fiscal conservatives deficit hawks. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Ha! You don’t care when the markets fall. But you are compelled to post when they go up. Sure. you don’t care.

See that's the problem you have. You think you stuck your neck out there on a public blog as if it actually mattered. Newsflash. it doesn't. There is no "risk" with anything you say. You can make up shit all you want say what you want (as you normally do) and there is really no consequences, except people pointing out how wrong you are many many times. And the only person that seems to care is you. Because then all the sudden you go into hiding or you bring up another subject to deflect. First it was your political rant posts about Republicans , and when you started to look like a idiot, then it was a slightly bent recession post that was supposedly to support your justification for your political rant posts. it's funny you mention about people distorting the truth because you are the worst offender and maybe the reason why some folks have been intentionally doing this is well, we wanted to bring it down the gutter to your level. And apparently you care a lot about it. Anyway, if you care about people laughing at you on a blog, which apparently it seems like you do, then don't be such a douchebag as you would be in real life. That's just common sense.

And if you don't care what people think it say on a blog, like I don't give a shit, then we'll say whatever you want. All we have done to this blog recently is we have simply brought this blog down to the level that you've been operating at all this time before we started to make a mockery of it. 95% of the shit we post we don't even mean, and if you haven't figured it out. well, oops.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 24, 2020 - 11:53am.

Ha! Political bent.
You are the one who wants to blame everything on Democrats, including the election of Trump. You can’t even accept that Republicans are the only ones responsible for Trump.

Submitted by Coronita on February 24, 2020 - 12:04pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Ha! Political bent.
You are the one who wants to blame everything on Democrats, including the election of Trump. You can’t even accept that Republicans are the only ones responsible for Trump.

again Brian, that's you distorting the truth again. And again agsin.

When did I blame ALL Democrats on everything ? Again that's your myopic vision and distortion of what people say. There are plenty of Democrats I like and do the right thing. And there a bunch of them crazy too.

Time after time on this blog, you've twisted the words of what others say. a handful of others, if what they say doesn't agree with your narrative. And many many people have called you out on it. you should remember, because each time it happened I was laughing my ass off watching you trying to backpeddle as they called you out on it, only for you to sink into a deeper hole that you dug yourself into over and over again. And then you wonder what's up with all the mockery. There was one other person that did this and very similar to your personality on this blog. BG. Yes it's true.

Again, it's really funny you would say others distorting the truth. This is analogous to a husband accusing a wife that she's cheating on him because he himself is cheating has a guilty conscience, lol.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 24, 2020 - 12:34pm.

You cannot blame any Democrat for Trump. Non-Trump voters are not responsible for Trump.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on February 24, 2020 - 1:05pm.

Wrong Brian. I am negative and miserable even in real life

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 24, 2020 - 1:41pm.

So what? Positive people get positivity from within... they should not care about negative comments.

spdrun has the right to wish for the failure of capitalism. I’m sure that if Sanders wins, a lot of formerly positive people would turn negative, haha

Submitted by zk on February 25, 2020 - 2:43pm.

flu wrote:
95% of the shit we post we don't even mean

Speak for yourself, flu.

It's that kind of shit that ruins a forum, not whatever Brian is doing. Or sprdun. They're expressing their opinions, however goofy you might think they are. If you disagree with them, you can ignore them or you can tell us why you disagree using reason. But resorting to pure mockery is childish and stupid. Worse, it makes you look like you have no real comeback to what they're saying. Even worse, posting shit you don't mean is how forums become completely irrelevant and die.

If you care about this forum, knock it off. If you don't care about this forum or you think it's already irrelevant, then leave.

Of course a third option would be to continue to be a selfish jackass, having some fun at the expense of those who do care about this forum.

Submitted by Coronita on February 25, 2020 - 5:02pm.

zk wrote:
flu wrote:
95% of the shit we post we don't even mean

Speak for yourself, flu.

It's that kind of shit that ruins a forum, not whatever Brian is doing. Or sprdun. They're expressing their opinions, however goofy you might think they are. If you disagree with them, you can ignore them or you can tell us why you disagree using reason. But resorting to pure mockery is childish and stupid. Worse, it makes you look like you have no real comeback to what they're saying. Even worse, posting shit you don't mean is how forums become completely irrelevant and die.

If you care about this forum, knock it off. If you don't care about this forum or you think it's already irrelevant, then leave.

Of course a third option would be to continue to be a selfish jackass, having some fun at the expense of those who do care about this forum.

Well, ZK. of we are on the subject of complaining about the posts of others
You do tend to only post about GOP destroying this country all the time on real estate blog at nauseating frequency. There were a few times you posted annoying swipes at religion ( I'm not religious) and various other things. Not sure I understand the point of this either on a real estate blog.

I'm simply posting at the same level the few people that brought the blog down to this level has already done so all this time. If you're unhappy this blog looks like horseshit, well don't bring your horse here. Now that it all looks like horseshit no horseshitter has an audience.

Don't worry, once a blog looks like horseshit, the horeshitters usually get bored and move onto another blog to stir horseshit up.

Submitted by zk on February 25, 2020 - 8:12pm.

flu wrote:

You do tend to only post about GOP destroying this country all the time on real estate blog at nauseating frequency.


It's a real estate blog, but it's not strictly a real estate forum. The forum has evolved as real estate evolved from what was a huge but mostly denied (by the general public and by those who should've known better) bubble all the way down to undervalued and back to overvalued (but not bubbly). Real estate became less interesting when everybody else finally figured out what was going on. But we had assembled a collection of relatively reasonable people, and we found other things to talk about. That's a good thing.

flu wrote:

There were a few times you posted annoying swipes at religion ( I'm not religious) and various other things. Not sure I understand the point of this either on a real estate blog.

If that’s your standard, why do you post about cars, tech, and other non-real estate-related subjects?

flu wrote:

I'm simply posting at the same level the few people that brought the blog down to this level has already done so all this time.

Nobody else has strayed as far as you into childish, thread-clogging mockery. You’ve brought more nonsense to this forum than anybody recently. And anyway, why would you do that? Why would you respond to what you see as nonsense with what you know is nonsense? How is that helping anything? How is that doing anything except allowing you to have a little bit of (very childish) fun at the expense of those who want to discuss things that might be important or interesting to them?
flu wrote:

If you're unhappy this blog looks like horseshit, well don't bring your horse here. Now that it all looks like horseshit no horseshitter has an audience.

Ah, the old love it or leave it argument. No, I prefer to try to improve it.

flu wrote:

Don't worry, once a blog looks like horseshit, the horeshitters usually get bored and move onto another blog to stir horseshit up.

Well, let’s hope it doesn’t take you too long to get bored.

Submitted by Hobie on February 25, 2020 - 8:10pm.

I actually enjoy intelligent talk about random topics. Including stocks, cars, general news that affect markets.

Decorating style...not so much.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 26, 2020 - 1:21pm.

Flu doesn’t want anything negative about the topics he chooses. If one posts anything negative about the economy, he goes on a personal attack about how that person is a miserable loser. Then flu follows up with several links on how individual companies are doing well. But then he said he’s an index drip investor.

Flu constantly bitches about california politics but he goes off when spdrun criticizes the consumption model.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on February 26, 2020 - 2:33pm.

Keep predicting that recession CrowBoy

Submitted by JPJones on February 28, 2020 - 3:00pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
You cannot blame any Democrat for Trump. Non-Trump voters are not responsible for Trump.

The hell we aren't. Did you have your head in the sand for the 2016 dem primaries? So many shenanigans my head was spinning. We shouldered half the blame for Trump winning. Sanders wouldn't have won because his policy or politics were better. He would have won because Hillary supporters were generally mature enough to step up and vote for whoever won the nomination, regardless. The younger crowd Sanders had going for him, not so much.

As for a recession this year, the corona virus is the trigger without a doubt at this point, and you'd be very hard pressed to convince anyone anywhere that you saw that one coming when you posted this.

And dude:

FlyerInHi wrote:
All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I'm thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see....

You didn't even give a reason! "All the signs"? What signs? You didn't stick your neck out. You casually glanced at the window and announced that it's day time. A stronger argument would have been "well, it's been more than 10 years since the last one, so we're probably due."

To Flu's point, I've been a part timer on this site for a long time, and he's right. Nothing you say here is important. It's just another blog on the internet. It doesn't take guts to make a prediction here. It just takes a keyboard.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.