Recession 2020

User Forum Topic
Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 25, 2018 - 11:26am

All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I'm thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see....

Submitted by carlsbadworker on April 25, 2019 - 10:17pm.

I guess that I am a contrarian after all because I didn't see the signs that FlyerInHi was clearly seeing in July 2018.

The stock market was expensive at that time, but it got more expensive today and I am still executing my strategy of conservative market exposure bundled with minor holding of some "risky" stocks (that has been 35%+ YTD)

I guess at the end of the day, I would agree with scaredy's comment. We mostly just project our inner belief into the outside world. I always don't believe myself that much...therefore my investment strategy has always been prepared for shit to happen in either direction. It probably is easier and more lucrative just to blindly long, but I doubt that will help me sleep better at night.

Submitted by flu on April 26, 2019 - 6:17am.

GDP 3.2%, beats expectations

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-1q-20...

The economy hasn't collapsed under this adminstration, as was previously predicted.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2019 - 8:20am.

flu wrote:

The economy hasn't collapsed under this adminstration, as was previously predicted.

Who predicted?

2020 cyclical recession prediction is better the previous prediction of collapse due to stimulus spending in 2009.

The Trump tax cuts were stimulative and they worked. We shall see how long. Maybe 2021 or 2022 recession. It’s coming like it or not.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 26, 2019 - 8:46am.

I don't think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is "not" the FED's mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2019 - 9:01am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I don't think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is "not" the FED's mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?

I agree. But our fundamental belief system is different from China.

I actually agree with China. Money and the economy are a giant engineering project that if engineered well can grow forever.

Submitted by flu on April 26, 2019 - 9:36am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
I don't think it is necessarily inevitable.

It is "not" the FED's mandate to have a recession every 5-10 or so years.

Would you say the same for China?

I agree. But our fundamental belief system is different from China.

I actually agree with China. Money and the economy are a giant engineering project that if engineered well can grow forever.

Brian just doesn't like being flat out wrong and eating crow . .
he never showed an interest in recessions , economy, tech ,stocks, investments, until this administration.. Because he's waiting for the opportunity to say "I told you so"..heh heh

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2019 - 10:20am.

Flu, who said anything about this administration? You did.

What this administration is doing will have long term effects on our economy, especially in relation to our power relationship with China and the Pacific Region. As we speak, China is holding the Belt and Road conference and we have nothing to compete with them.

The recession i am predicting has to do with the cyclical nature of the economy.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2019 - 10:22am.

Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?

Submitted by flu on April 26, 2019 - 10:47am.

The-Shoveler.

Didn't say this adminstration made one of the best decisions ever by Broadcom/Avago's attempt to acquire Qualcomm and cut it up into pieces? Qualcomm is probably the only wireless telco company with a proven 5G solution that is in production. Not intel (they just pulled out), not Nvidia, not any other U.S. company.

Maybe MediaTek... Maybe Huawei....That's it.

It would have been a huge mistake for this "crown jewel" to have been sold to a Broadcom. All all those haters, that were call complainng about a 50ish Qualcomm stock price... Ha! Time has told.. Meanwhile, Intel eating major crow today...

Intel's vaporware....
https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/25/18516...
ha ha.,

Haters....wrong....again....

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 26, 2019 - 11:00am.

So, flu, government picking winners and losers worked. Bravo.

In the Broadcom/Qualcomm case the process and capitalism couldn’t trusted to work. It took an executive decision by the president himself.

We shall see how consumers will pay for the cost of 5G. As it is, we now pay some of the highest mobile rates in the world, when at one time we paid the lowest rates (during the 2G era).

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 29, 2019 - 11:20am.

delete

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 30, 2019 - 11:32am.

Oh oh, I may have to revise my recession prediction if Trump and the Democrats agree in a $2 trillion infrastructure plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/us/po...

The tax cut was an 18 month juice that’s about to wear off. But $2 trillion infrastructure plan would be a game changer. However, I doubt we can implement it fast like China. Kinda dumb for Democrats to give Trump a win, if you ask me.

Deficit spending as far as we can see..... Anyone predicting hyperinflation and dollar collapse? Ron Paul, anyone? Anyone?

Submitted by SK in CV on May 8, 2019 - 4:38pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?

The fed is NOT going to expand their balance sheet any time soon. Not a single open market committee member suggested anything like further expansion. They will continue data dependent contraction indefinitely.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 13, 2019 - 2:17pm.

SK in CV wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
Shoveler, you are relying on the Fed to act again. In fact they are about to expand their balance sheet again. Do they know something we don’t?

The fed is NOT going to expand their balance sheet any time soon. Not a single open market committee member suggested anything like further expansion. They will continue data dependent contraction indefinitely.

Thanks for the correction. I thought I hear something on CNBC. Aren’t they about to pause the tightening at least?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 13, 2019 - 2:18pm.

Trump’s trade war with China may hasten the next recession.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 13, 2019 - 4:11pm.

I don't know, seems like China is running out of ammo (they really don'y buy much from us anyway, and right now it has been almost completely nothing for a year or so).

though higher prices for US consumers may hurt at least until we find new sources.

Anyway doing nothing is/was no longer an option.

I think eventually there will be a deal that benefits both.

Submitted by spdrun on May 13, 2019 - 5:01pm.

It would benefit Mother Earth if there was a full-on trade war and tariffs shot up to 200%. We don't need more disposable Chinese junk being thrown in our landfills and taken to e-waste breakers in Africa to be burned for metals.

Submitted by SK in CV on May 13, 2019 - 7:15pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Thanks for the correction. I thought I hear something on CNBC. Aren’t they about to pause the tightening at least?

Trump whined that he wanted more QE. (After whining that the 7 year bull market that he inherited was all a function of QE) The Fed laughed at him.

Since the end of the last QE, they've remained data dependent with a target interest rate. Nothing has changed.

Submitted by moneymaker on May 14, 2019 - 5:45pm.

Recession in 2019, one and done by the Fed, just like I said a long time ago! The tariffs are paid by us the consumer, not the Chinese, just buy less Chinese crap and we will all be good, more from Vietnam and elsewhere.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 14, 2019 - 8:19pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

I think eventually there will be a deal that benefits both.

Let’s look at the data so far....
- higher trade deficit with China
- loss of market share for US farmers.
- trump is contradicting himself when he want free market reforms in China, but he wants the state to commit to purchasing US products. How is that private enterprise? George Will wrote a nice piece on this.
- consensus of economists is that is bad policy.

How do you think the USA will win?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 14, 2019 - 8:24pm.

moneymaker wrote:
Recession in 2019, one and done by the Fed, just like I said a long time ago! The tariffs are paid by us the consumer, not the Chinese, just buy less Chinese crap and we will all be good, more from Vietnam and elsewhere.

So far the trade deficit with China keeps going up, notwithstanding the tariffs.

And more stuff from Vietnam just means that US corporations will be buying more from Chinese manufacturers who setup shop in Vietnam. On turn, Vietnam will buy more stuff from China like Huawei networks, solar panels, etc...

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