Recession 2020

User Forum Topic
Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 25, 2018 - 11:26am

All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I'm thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see....

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 15, 2018 - 11:56am.

Actually the Fed is doing far more damage than trump to Emerging markets.

after all this effort to "GET" inflation they may stomp on the breaks too fast.

The Fed is the biggest danger IMO right now.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 15, 2018 - 12:53pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Actually IMO the end goal is to end up with "zero" tariffs (on both sides).

We will see I guess.

This is a good wonkish article for you. Ain't gonna happen. I will "bow down" to Trump if it does (as Amarosa once said).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 18, 2018 - 5:40pm.

Another epic economic collapse is coming
By George Will

What happened to all the deficit hawks. Remember all the people who opposed the stimulus? Where are they?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

Submitted by Myriad on August 19, 2018 - 3:36pm.

I think the recession will occur because of normal rise of interest rates and over investment in certain areas.
The corporate and commercial RE looks like they have higher than average debt than prior to previous recessions. A good proportion of commercial RE loans are interest only and are 5/7 years, so when they refinance, the higher rates will impact the values and $ amount that can borrowed.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 21, 2018 - 9:47am.

Myriad wrote:
I think the recession will occur because of normal rise of interest rates and over investment in certain areas.

Normal? You don't think the deficit is causing interest rates rise and crowding out private borrowing?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 21, 2018 - 1:34pm.

10 year is at about 2.844%

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US10Y

Fed seems to be the only thing pushing it IMO.

Submitted by Myriad on August 21, 2018 - 3:48pm.

At the moment, no. The market doesn't see deficit spending as impacting long term interest rates. So it's unlikely deficit spending will cause a recession.

But, it may be a problem once we're in a recession or in the post-recession phase. But, if you look at Japan, high debt hasn't been a problem for borrowing rates yet they are at 250% of GDP.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/image...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 21, 2018 - 6:03pm.

Yeah, i agree Myriad.

Deficit hawkishness, especially after 2008, was years premature and retarded economic growth. We’d be richer today, with a larger GPD, had it not been for misguided notions of deficit spending.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 25, 2018 - 12:02pm.

The trade wars with China and other countries are about to get ugly.
As Trump’s problems mount, he’s going to unleash hate and resentment among his base.
The policies have lagging effects on the economy, but eventually we will live with the consequences.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-tr...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 31, 2018 - 11:19pm.

Reagans budget director says all hell will break loose.

https://youtu.be/xt9PxhrQYMM

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 22, 2018 - 1:30pm.

Will I be proven right? Time will tell

Top Business Economists Predict U.S. Could Face Recession in 2020
http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

Submitted by SK in CV on October 1, 2018 - 5:47pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Will I be proven right? Time will tell

Top Business Economists Predict U.S. Could Face Recession in 2020
http://fortune.com/2018/06/04/recession-...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-trumponomics-working-not-really/2018/09/21/b336a886-bd17-11e8-be70-52bd11fe18af_story.html?utm_term=.1352c8cf01b4

Monkeys could fly in 2020.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 1, 2018 - 9:17pm.

i don't think my hairline will recede any furhter in 2020

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 4, 2018 - 11:35am.

SK in CV wrote:

Monkeys could fly in 2020.

It's a hunch. Now I'm thinking recession in 2021.

I need to know because I'm planning to buy a muilti-unit property next bottom. Then I'll be OK for retirement overseas.
I'm retiring somewhere in South East Asia so I can enjoy the easy travel on high speed rail that will be available.

Watch this American in China. High speed rail is so nice!
https://youtu.be/i3b2sTgbJDA

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 4, 2018 - 12:55pm.

re hair recession, jamaican black castor oil helps with hair growth.

i stopped using soap and shampoo and commercial deodorant over 2 months ago, except hands.

just water and washcloths.

i do oil myself up from time to time, including hair and armpits.

jojoba oil, castor oil, beeswax, coconut oil, olive oil, shea butter, tea tree oil in armpits

i will never use soap again. water is enough. ive also cut way back on showrrs
just use washcloths to towel down.

but i love oiling myself.

soap and 'poo just dry me out.

my water needs are down radically. dont need to clean shower as much.

no soap scum.

better for planet.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 4, 2018 - 1:34pm.

Are you Black? Why do you need to oil yourself? Since you don't use soap, shouldn't your own body oil be enough? My hair is oily enough... no need to add.

My Black guests at my short term rental leave shea buyer oil all over the place!

I used to take propecia for hair but no more. Thankfully I don't have a bald spot. Short hair is just fine.

Submitted by ucodegen on October 4, 2018 - 9:03pm.

SK in CV wrote:

Monkeys could fly in 2020.

It may be sooner. China was just busted big time with inserting spy chips into computer products they make for other countries - including SuperMicro motherboards. They either pretend to be a SuperMicro manager, bribe, or used threats to get the items inserted. At least 30 large companies have been affected, as well as governmental offices etc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/10/04...

'flu' may be interested in this tech. There is an even more advanced version where the IC substrate has been ground down to the thickness of paper or less and then it is inserted within the motherboard's fiberglass layers.

Considering that some companies have closed offices in China (sold off) and some of taken the step of disposing of all of their affected/suspect gear.. who knows where this ripple is going to go. It might adversely affect China. They have 2.5 times the US debt to GDP ratio. I think China forgot that you have to be careful of taking a dump where you eat.

What happens to an economy under sanctions/tariffs for various IP theft and dumping issues when it is also found to be inserting spy/remote access components into its computer components? Particularly when it relies on those exports to survive while running 2.5x the US's debt (The US debt is bad enough as it is. Servicing the interest costs is starting to get expensive.)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 4, 2018 - 9:31pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Are you Black? Why do you need to oil yourself? Since you don't use soap, shouldn't your own body oil be enough? My hair is oily enough... no need to add.

My Black guests at my short term rental leave shea buyer oil all over the place!

I used to take propecia for hair but no more. Thankfully I don't have a bald spot. Short hair is just fine.

i just want to be a nonflaky moist old white guy. my feet were getting a,little,gross. white and cracked, almost looked like the feet of a corpse from certain angles, just so old and dry, and now,after months of self pedicures and soaking in apple cider vinegar and ointments, they are wonderfully supple and fleshy

more oil! so moist.

Submitted by flu on October 5, 2018 - 6:51am.

ucodegen wrote:
SK in CV wrote:

Monkeys could fly in 2020.

It may be sooner. China was just busted big time with inserting spy chips into computer products they make for other countries - including SuperMicro motherboards. They either pretend to be a SuperMicro manager, bribe, or used threats to get the items inserted. At least 30 large companies have been affected, as well as governmental offices etc.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/10/04...

'flu' may be interested in this tech. There is an even more advanced version where the IC substrate has been ground down to the thickness of paper or less and then it is inserted within the motherboard's fiberglass layers.

Considering that some companies have closed offices in China (sold off) and some of taken the step of disposing of all of their affected/suspect gear.. who knows where this ripple is going to go. It might adversely affect China. They have 2.5 times the US debt to GDP ratio. I think China forgot that you have to be careful of taking a dump where you eat.

What happens to an economy under sanctions/tariffs for various IP theft and dumping issues when it is also found to be inserting spy/remote access components into its computer components? Particularly when it relies on those exports to survive while running 2.5x the US's debt (The US debt is bad enough as it is. Servicing the interest costs is starting to get expensive.)

but but but china is so cool, according to Brian.....

Why are people so surprised about this?

Submitted by spdrun on October 5, 2018 - 7:26am.

Cry me a river for Apple and Amazon. Frankly, I HOPE it hurts Apple -- their user-hostile practices stink to hell:

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/artic...

Amazon? Let them burn too. They're selling surveillance systems to everyone and trying to turn private homes into Panopticons with their cameras and Alexa.

Same goes for Google and MS, let's hope they're all affected.

Submitted by ucodegen on October 5, 2018 - 9:56am.

flu wrote:

but but but china is so cool, according to Brian.....

Why are people so surprised about this?


I know I'm not, I came across an altered ethernet controller chip that was modded for a similar purpose by China, more than 10 years ago. The part that did surprise me was the sizing of the component and the transition to between fiberglass layers placement of surveillance components.

The other aspect that surprised me was how lax the US government has been with respect to where their components are sourced.

If you outsource, particularly to China, expect to do a thorough per item QA back here in the states.

NOTE: I wish 'sanitizing' the boards were covered. How to remove the device, whether the device was designed to operate on a pulled up bus line or as a 'pass through' intercept (which would need a jumper after removing the component). The entire production of that particular motherboard was not affected. It may have been a bit more 'targeted'.

Submitted by Myriad on October 5, 2018 - 1:13pm.

Yes, it might have been ok to outsource your sensitive components and supply chain to friendly allied nations. It's another to send that to a global competitor that doesn't believe in your economic and political system.
What people miss about this US vs China trade is that it's not whether US companies can fairly compete in China in the future.
The question is whether the US will be able to trade with countries in Asia and Africa where China has strong political and economic influence. At the moment, they can't back that with military force, but China is working on that.
Don't believe this? just look at Taiwan - China is executing a 50-100 year strategy to economically and politically isolate Taiwan where they will effectively be part of China. South China Sea - economically force Vietnam, Philippines to accept Chinese territorial "islands".

Submitted by Myriad on October 5, 2018 - 1:53pm.

.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 5, 2018 - 5:43pm.

I agree Myriad.

What I don’t understand is the general negativity regarding China. Don’t the free markets dictate that we should up our game and give a better deal to countries around the world? If our deals better, then China doesn’t have a chance.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 5, 2018 - 5:58pm.

All countries spy. That’s normal.

China is cool because it innovates and produces things that people need and use.
If you’re riding the Nairobi-Mombasa train, you have China to thank.
When I retire Asia, I would be more than happy to ride the high speed trains China has built and is building. Hong Kong’s high speed rail just opened.

While China sends businessmen and engineers around the world, we send our heroes. The free markets are deciding which approach is better.

I don’t agree with China’s political philosophy, but I admire their business planning and tech innovations.

Submitted by ucodegen on October 5, 2018 - 7:42pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:

What I don’t understand is the general negativity regarding China. Don’t the free markets dictate that we should up our game and give a better deal to countries around the world? If our deals better, then China doesn’t have a chance.

You are convoluting free market 'capitalism' with 'laissez faire'.

Capitalism is premised on a market such that the best option for best price will win. Core to its premise is operating on equal footing. Patents break capitalism to some degree, but are needed to promote innovation. Different tax structures, minimum wages and other laws can also make the footing upon which companies operate unequal. Monopolies are almost an antithesis of capitalism. With a total monopoly, you have complete pricing ability and don't have to compete on value or innovation.

'laissez faire' litterally means 'leave it alone'. Effectively, no rules. Monopolies are expected, and the system can easily evolve to corporatocracy.

China has, for all intents an purposes, no minimum wage. A person can rarely succeed on merits, it based more on connections, particularly to the communist party. China has no environmental protection laws, it lends its companies money at a very cheap rate and does not honor foreign IP. It is very difficult to compete with countries so structured when your country has environment laws, minimum wage, OSHA etc.

Submitted by ucodegen on October 5, 2018 - 7:41pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:

China is cool because it innovates and produces things that people need and use.

I don’t agree with China’s political philosophy, but I admire their business planning and tech innovations.


Much of China's innovation is actually copying someone else's designs. What I have noticed is that China is much more willing to risk the money to put an innovation into production, though I think it may at times be to beat the actual inventor to the punch(delivery).

Our bean-counter mentality of managers have ruined our businesses. MBAs have no real vision, what they consider a 'vision' is actually a joke - or maybe leftover hallucinations from the pot party they were at last night. They think that innovation is trying to eke out the last dollar possible out of a transaction, and not about creating a new market, new device or new way of doing things.

We still have some visionaries, ie Bezos (who is developing the rocket engine that NASA couldn't at Blue Origin, despite all the billions that were available to NASA.)

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 8, 2018 - 11:47am.

Ucodegen you made some good points.

The reason for IP is that protection is supposed to spur innovation. But there is a point where it is detrimental to innovation and producing things people need and use. China, as a manufacturing powerhouse, commoditizes things and that's great for humankind because they turn scarcity into plenty.

No true on merit in China. Chinese people work very hard for the wealth they have.

With regard to capitalism, even the Chinase would agree that private ownership is good, up to a point. They use a mix of private and state capitalism. They are able to marshall huge amounts of capital to achieve development goals. What they are doing is nothing new and has been tried before in other countries without much success. But the Chinese are simply better managers.

Anyway, I look at the wealth and the beautiful infrastructure of China and I'm impressed. In 10 years, I'll be retired in Asia and zipping around in metros, high speed rail and beautiful airports while nothing would have changed in USA and Americans continue chestthump "we are the most badass".

The proof of success be in the products and services people need and use everyday.

prediction for you... when peace does come to Afghanistan, China will build the infrastructure and become the largest trading partner. All the resources we have invested will have been in vain.

Even Latin American, our sphere of influence, is turning to China for commerce and development.

Submitted by Myriad on October 8, 2018 - 12:06pm.

At some point, China will have to deal with all the debt they have created. Currently they are ok, but eventually, the maintenance cost for all the infrastructure they created will have to be supported with something other than sales of land by government and re-issuing debt.
The infrastructure they are paying for in Asia/Africa is unsustainable by those local countries, so China government will have to assume those debts also.
With the combination of debt, interest rates, aging demographics, all of a sudden, China will start to have developed nation budget problems.
The next down cycle will be interesting, especially if investors lose faith in global government debt (like Italy)

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 8, 2018 - 3:05pm.

The Chinese debt is in RMB. Can they not just monetize it away?

Question is that we have excess savings in the west. Why are we not investing to building things that improve people's lives? Companies are swimming in cash but they are not investing because the policies to spur demand, which by definition includes ability to pay, aren't there.

Other questions is humanity is better off today than 30 years ago. Why are we not celebrating and participating in initiatives such as Relt and Road to improve lives.

I read Has the West Lost it? Good book. The author wrote a previous book in 2009 and he was right. Since then, China built its whole high speed rail network. They have amazing technology to build bridges and roads.

https://www.amazon.com/Has-West-Lost-Kis...

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