Recession 2020

User Forum Topic
Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 25, 2018 - 11:26am

All the signs point to a recession coming.
Since it takes 2 quarters of negative growth before a recession is declared, I'm thinking one will be announced sometimes in 2020. We will see....

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 10, 2018 - 8:02am.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Being spread out a little can reduce risk in many ways.

That said it has been predicted that all of SoCal will become one big Mega City 50 years from now.

"Don't put all your eggs in one basket."

This is the reason the internet was created BTW.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 10, 2018 - 9:11am.

You mean like the Boston-DC corridor? I think at one time it was the World first megalopolis. If you can call suburban sprawl a city.

I ran into someone at Ikea who drives Murrieta-Sorrento Valley everyday. That is just crazy to my mind.

I’m a great admirer of Singapore and I think we should limit cars and have an auction process for car entitlement permits.

We really need to abandon the SFR mindset and let the market decide. If freeways were market driven and user-fee self sufficient, urban planning would be much different. The train urban model is actually more economically sustainable.

One days I will retire to locales where I walk down my apartment and find stores and restaurants.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 10, 2018 - 9:50am.

One day after having coffee on my patio over looking the canyon, I will go out to my three car garage, jump in my car and say take me to the beach etc...

Submitted by spdrun on August 10, 2018 - 11:08am.

I will say, "HAL-9000 let me drive before I go all Bowman on your sorry ass."

Submitted by spdrun on August 10, 2018 - 11:28am.

FIH: Boston-DC is only suburban to a point -- between about South Brunswick and Trenton, there are farms and fields. Same thing with rural Maryland and Delaware, as well as parts of Connecticut and RI.

Submitted by Myriad on August 10, 2018 - 12:54pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
That said it has been predicted that all of SoCal will become one big Mega City 50 years from now.

It will be called San Angeles - and all restaurants will be Taco Bells

Submitted by spdrun on August 10, 2018 - 1:15pm.

Too close to "San Angelo" Texas. How about Los Diegos or Tijuana del Norte?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 10, 2018 - 1:27pm.

It's a brave new world LOL.

San Angeles is a fictional futuristic concept of Southern California, United States, typically configured by commentators and films producers to include the areas of Los Angeles to San Diego and sometimes even San Bernardino to Riverside

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Angeles

Los Diegos is not far off either

Los Andiegoles (and Arnold Schwarzenegger is Prez)

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 10, 2018 - 1:47pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Don't put all your eggs in one basket

I could buy that.

So it’s not about principles, nor is it about core economics.

One minute it’s “don’t build because there are not enough users.” Next minute it’s “don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” Or next minute it’s about social engineering and “bring civilization to the country bumpkins.”

So why put all our eggs in highways. Why should we not be leaders in trains too? Trains are better than caterpillar earth moving equipment as an export products. It’s like airplanes in GPD returns.

BTW, China is starting to have nicer highways than USA. But they’re tollways, not freeways.

Submitted by Ribbles on August 10, 2018 - 2:16pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I’m a great admirer of Singapore and I think we should limit cars and have an auction process for car entitlement permits.

Aaaaand I just moved out of the country.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 10, 2018 - 4:11pm.

spdrun wrote:
FIH: Boston-DC is only suburban to a point -- between about South Brunswick and Trenton, there are farms and fields. Same thing with rural Maryland and Delaware, as well as parts of Connecticut and RI.

Yeah. If you read books, the NYC area was the first megalopolis before Rio, Tokyo, etc. From Boston to DC there were lots of iconic US companies before the interstate freeways. That was the real America, not Kansas.

If you look back with some context you see how times changed. People who didn’t embrace change got passed by.
One of my friends’ parents still thinks cable TV is modern. She feels antenna is old fashioned from her childhood. The truth is people are now switching back to antenna for local network TV and streaming everything else.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 10, 2018 - 6:26pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
One day after having coffee on my patio over looking the canyon, I will go out to my three car garage, jump in my car and say take me to the beach etc...

To each his own. But I think my urban philosophy has more potential subscribers. I don’t mean total numbers but higher demand than supply.

I have a new friend in Vegas. 60yo single.
Sold his company in LA and retired in Vegas 5200sf house with casita out in the boonies. 5200sf is so whack. He said LA is boring but Vegas is fun. I think the opposite.

He said a condo on the strip is too small. Me, on the other hand, I’m plotting a condo in Waikiki like this. 400sf.
https://youtu.be/l3yHLikvjPU

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 11, 2018 - 8:35am.

I can see how downtown type environments would appeal to some single people (or maybe some childless couples).

Enough probably to create demand for a limited (very limited in SoCal) supply.

Me I need an enclosed private garage (the bigger the better) and some out door yard space (preferably with a view).

To each their own.

Submitted by spdrun on August 11, 2018 - 11:04am.

You can get a garage and a yard in many denser urban parts of SD -- think North/South Park.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 13, 2018 - 9:36am.

I like Robert Samuelson’s column.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

Looks likes the economic consensus is that Trump’s
Trade war bound for failure.

So I stick to my 2020 recession prediction.
1) we are due due for a recession
2) the policies, from deficit to trade wars, to confusion and lack of clarity, will help usher in a recession.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 13, 2018 - 11:02am.

Prescience or bull?

“Turkey is the canary in the coal mine,” Mr. Lee said on Friday. “We are going have another crash that will be worse than 2008 in certain ways.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/busin...

Any Turkish-American on piggington? Maybe time to buy real estate in Istanbul.

The indian rupee also dropped to a record low. Maybe Indian-Americans should think about buying condos in Mumbai.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/13/busin...

The meltdown in Turkey will also affect the military situation in Syria. Assad will be able to reclaim territory held by Turkey. A stronger Assad will force the US to escalate or withdraw from Syria.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 13, 2018 - 11:37am.

FlyerInHi wrote:

So I stick to my 2020 recession prediction.
1) we are due due for a recession
2) the policies, from deficit to trade wars, to confusion and lack of clarity, will help usher in a recession.

You may be right, mostly because 2020 is a long way off. Another black swan event is as likely now as it's ever been. I'm not aware of any leading indicators that point in the direction of a looming recession.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 13, 2018 - 12:37pm.

SK in CV wrote:
I'm not aware of any leading indicators that point in the direction of a looming recession.

Gut instincts. I'm thinking 2 quarters puts us in 2019 already. Maybe 2020 is an early call.

Higher prices will squeeze consumers, from housing to healthcare, education and consumer goods. Tariffs won't help.

The U.S. is now a terrible place to be a middle-class consumer
By Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/thew...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 13, 2018 - 1:12pm.

You would never know it from being at the Temecula Costco yesterday, that place was just crazy mobbed with customers with over stuffed carts.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 13, 2018 - 1:50pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
You would never know it from being at the Temecula Costco yesterday, that place was just crazy mobbed with customers with over stuffed carts.

That's not exactly a leading economic indicator, but it's closer to what I'm looking for. Retail sales are holding steady. Job growth continues. No changes to employment. Layoffs at all time lows. There's nothing in real estate that screams recession, though there are plenty of areas that require close monitoring. Those are some of the things that are predictive of a recession and almost invariably show up well before GDP turns negative.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 13, 2018 - 2:26pm.

IMO it is a tale of many countries, South Korea they are dealing with mass layoffs, in Japan they have a severe labor shortage.

I saw this morning that China was letting US soy shipments in (well at least some).

When you need it, you need it.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 13, 2018 - 3:00pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

I saw this morning that China was letting US soy shipments in (well at least some).

Sure, at prices 25% lower to US farmers than 2 years ago.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 13, 2018 - 3:54pm.

SK, looking down memory lane at past recessions, excluding the 2008 Great Recession and the 2001 9/11 induced recession, what leading indicators of recession were obviously missed by observers?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 13, 2018 - 4:17pm.

IMO "NOTHING" was missed in 2008.

If we could predict it do you really think they missed it.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 13, 2018 - 5:21pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
SK, looking down memory lane at past recessions, excluding the 2008 Great Recession and the 2001 9/11 induced recession, what leading indicators of recession were obviously missed by observers?

Quite a few didn't miss it. Housing starts and initial unemployment claims. That recession was triggered by a black swan event. (liquidity disappeared) It would have happened irrespective of that event.

Submitted by Myriad on August 14, 2018 - 1:48am.

Hmm, so wasn't this site back in 2004/5 documenting the bubble. Along with bubbleinfo.com, calculatedriskblog, etc, etc.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 14, 2018 - 10:36am.

I meant what are the predictors of the leading indicators.... for example, remember that George Bush Senior denied there was recession trying to talk up the economy.

The thing about recession is that there’s always deniability until 2 quarters of negative growth are confirmed. And the joke “economists predicted 10 of the last 3 recessions.”

Submitted by SK in CV on August 14, 2018 - 10:58am.

Here's two predictors. Rising initial unemployment claims. Falling new home starts. They have not been 100% reliable, but have dropped significantly before most of the last 8 recessions. There are others.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 14, 2018 - 11:58am.

SK in CV wrote:
Here's two predictors. Rising initial unemployment claims. Falling new home starts. They have not been 100% reliable, but have dropped significantly before most of the last 8 recessions. There are others.

Thanks. I will be paying attention.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 15, 2018 - 11:40am.

I just read this article and my crystal ball is cloudy now.
Is capital flight from China going to bring more Chinese money to USA? But a strong dollar would be less affordable to foreigners. And I also read elsewere that FDI in US has been on a downward trend since Trump was elected

Worried About Turkey’s Economic Problems? China’s Could Be Worse
The fate of the world economy depends on how China negotiates a weakening currency and capital flight.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/15/opini...

Where will the Chinese money go? An American friend of mine wanted to buy a new condo in Bangkok. Over there they sell preconstuctiom and foreigners can only own 49% of the units. The Chinese have bought all the foreigner allotments already, years before delivery. Apparently Chinese buyers are snapping up properties in Cambodia and Malaysia as well.

And this:
Inflation is back. Will it kill the economy?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

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