Recent buys: Trump Warrants, Munis, Shorts

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Submitted by gzz on January 21, 2022 - 12:23pm

DWACW: I have a strong gut feeling that once Trump Media is launched and the ticker becomes TRMP or whatever, it will pop 100% or more. DWACW are the warrants for DWAC and should go up even more and are underpriced.

So far I am up about 70% and as I do research and think about it more, I have been buying more rather than taking profits.

WE: a complete disaster of a company. Main risk is that it becomes a meme stock. Shorting only 4k worth. I expect to cover with a 3k profit in a year.

COIN and MSTR: shorting these awful crypto companies directly and via puts and hedging with GBTC long.

EVM: cali muni fund. Pays monthly which I like for irrational psychological reasons, and pays 4.4% yield free of state and federal tax.

Uber/Lyft/Dash: staying short but taking profits. My position here is now 80% smaller than peak in 2021.

RCL: check out their recent financial statements. Since covid they are still operating with little expense cuts but 90%+ loss in revenue. The brand and ships will survive covid, I don’t think the equity will.

IRBT, YNDX, INTC, GOOG: my favorite tech stocks

TUR, RSX, THD, EPOL, EWW: etfs for Turkey Russia Thailand Poland and Mexico. All great values. Russia is my newest position. I have had Thailand and Mexico for a while. Turkey I have traded in and out of for years.

These are all middle income nations with more room to grow than the US/EU, but are trading at a huge discount.

Submitted by gzz on January 21, 2022 - 12:45pm.

I see in other threads people are still worried about inflation. Not me!

I again do hope we stay above 4% inflation for years as a partial debt jubilee.

But BBB failed and the GOP had a 90% chance of taking the house.

The days of showering the working and middle class with CovidBux is over.

Just one example, the $300 per child per month tax credit expired this month. For a family of 5 with a median US income of about 50K, that’s a sudden drop in after tax/after rent/mortgage income of about 25%!

Total covid transfer payments were about $5 trillion. Probably 80% of that was spent on goods and services at a time when supply was flat or declining! Kevin Drum has usefully noted that it appears that when the spigot was really gushing with PPP/stim payments/extended unemployment, and a lot was shut down, the funds were heavily saved even by cash constrained households who normally spend all extra funds.

These households however have been gradually spending down excess savings and are now back to normal levels.

In summary, consumer powered demand inflation will disappear. Meanwhile supply shortages that are heavily caused by labor shortages will decline as covid subsides and people return to work. Biden is also relaxing Trump’s immigration controls.

Submitted by Coronita on January 27, 2022 - 8:04am.

Dude. Stick with real estate...next time you decide to buy a stock I own , can you tell me well in advance so I can sell?
Why did you decide to buy Intel. we were doing fine until you went long....

Please... Individual stocks aren't your thing...do an index and call it a day.

You are trying to best the markets by picking individual stocks. but no offense you have a pretty lousy track record for picking individual stocks...whether you go long or short....this is coming from someone that also has a pretty lousy track record....but I can conclusively say yours is way worse than mine.mmwhich from a consistency perspective is great...

you see

I might be 46% correct on average.

You are probably closer to 35% correct....

This means that while my friends who do the opposite of what I do might do slightly better than if they made stock decisions based on flipping a coin....

I think we found a new contrarian leader , that if we do the opposite stock picking from what you do, the returns should beat the markets.

Don't take it personally. This is just how it is. And like I said it only applies to individual stock picking.

I wouldn't gamble against you when it comes to real estate or career advice....for those contrarian indicators, I think deadzone probably is the leader in those domains.Again, nothing personal....

I'm completely sample data and results driven here....

Please don't touch ibm and tsm. I don't have much in tech anymore. But of the few I do, please don't touch Intel, ibm, tsm, amd.... There thousands of other tech stocks you can dick around with...no need to jinx these 4.....please...

Submitted by gzz on February 4, 2022 - 5:47pm.

Dude. Stick with real estate

My ability to buy real estate was in large part because I shorted bank stocks in 2006-2007 instead of buying RE like most young professionals my age were doing.

Individual stocks aren't your thing

I purchased XOM on 1/21/22 for 72.13 and am up 13% since then, plus a 1% quarterly dividend.

I like GOOG, which has done very well this week.

I have some business income coming in. I am putting the largest amount of it into tax free munis. EVM pays 4.4% free of state and federal tax.

The second largest use are value stocks, XOM, SU, T, TD, BNS and VZ. They are all around p/e of 10 and pretty solid companies.

The third largest use are shorting tech stocks that lose tons and tons of money. I may lose money on this, but if the tech bubble keeps up, I will more than make up for these losses with RE appreciation.

INTC has not been a winner. YNDX was for a while, but now below my average. GO has been a big loss, but I am glad I averaged down when it was 23. I really love their Point Loma location.

My current biggest winner unrealized is a put on coinbase that's up 173%. But I had others expire at 0, so really have about broken even there. My best stock right now is WFC, up 144% since 9/23/20. It is such a solid company I wasn't worried about buying in big. I don't know how people can put a big part of their net worth into unprofitable tech companies.

Submitted by Coronita on February 6, 2022 - 8:44pm.

gzz wrote:

Dude. Stick with real estate

My ability to buy real estate was in large part because I shorted bank stocks in 2006-2007 instead of buying RE like most young professionals my age were doing.

Individual stocks aren't your thing

I purchased XOM on 1/21/22 for 72.13 and am up 13% since then, plus a 1% quarterly dividend.

I like GOOG, which has done very well this week.

I have some business income coming in. I am putting the largest amount of it into tax free munis. EVM pays 4.4% free of state and federal tax.

The second largest use are value stocks, XOM, SU, T, TD, BNS and VZ. They are all around p/e of 10 and pretty solid companies.

The third largest use are shorting tech stocks that lose tons and tons of money. I may lose money on this, but if the tech bubble keeps up, I will more than make up for these losses with RE appreciation.

INTC has not been a winner. YNDX was for a while, but now below my average. GO has been a big loss, but I am glad I averaged down when it was 23. I really love their Point Loma location.

My current biggest winner unrealized is a put on coinbase that's up 173%. But I had others expire at 0, so really have about broken even there. My best stock right now is WFC, up 144% since 9/23/20. It is such a solid company I wasn't worried about buying in big. I don't know how people can put a big part of their net worth into unprofitable tech companies.

ok....carry on...

I just mostly do indexes these days. I don't need to gamble as much to get that maximum return.

Submitted by gzz on February 7, 2022 - 4:51pm.

I wish I had just did SPY the last two years. My stocks did about 12% v 40% for the SP500.

This is partly because my risk profile was much lower however. I shorted REITs as a hedge against my large RE rental investment, and most of the rest was in value stocks and bonds.

Stock valuations seemed roughly fair to me in 2019, the giant bull market I did not see coming at all.

Submitted by gzz on April 22, 2022 - 2:02pm.

My longs went down. My shorts went down.

YNDX was a disaster, it is still a functioning and profitable company but cannot be traded in the USA and probably my shares will be seized by Putin. In Moscow it trades for about $20. I wish! There’s certainly a chance the status quo returns and it goes to $120.

Submitted by limkotir on April 22, 2022 - 3:39pm.

dupe see below

Submitted by limkotir on April 22, 2022 - 3:39pm.

gzz wrote:
My longs went down. My shorts went down.

YNDX was a disaster, it is still a functioning and profitable company but cannot be traded in the USA and probably my shares will be seized by Putin. In Moscow it trades for about $20. I wish! There’s certainly a chance the status quo returns and it goes to $120.

I was going to ask you, YNDX on Yahoo Finance was last updated on Feb 25 at $18.94/share, what does it say in your brokerage account, $0? or reflecting that price but you cannot sell.

RSX ceased to exist shortly after the Ukraine invasion, so another frozen asset right there?

My condolences. Just about all of us participating in the market with long position, to some varying degree and myself included, are feeling the pain right now!!

Submitted by gzz on April 23, 2022 - 8:17am.

It shows as 18.94 on fidelity. Fidelity also reports the last day’s loss every single day, so the “day’s gain” feature on Fidelity has been broken nearly the entire war.

It traded much lower than 18.94 in London for a few more days, and then was suspended there too.

Fidelity’s balance and account values seems to switch randomly between valuation of 0 and 18.94.

Apple Stocks app shows it at 1700 roubles which comes to about $20. The Russian stock and currency markets are under government controls so not too meaningful. I’d guess it would be about 15-20 right now if tradable here.

Interestingly, there’s a US fund that is mostly Russian stocks but not suspended, CEE. It dropped from 30 to 7 when the war started and is now 10.

I remain bullish on Eastern Europe and also have a fair amount of EPOL.

Submitted by limkotir on April 23, 2022 - 10:58am.

Yep, I think there are opportunities in Eastern Europe too. I dipped into EPAM, which has been battered due to being a tech company and many of its workforce being in Ukraine.

Think of them as the Indian Infosys for outsourced work for global tech companies.

https://investors.epam.com/static-files/...

Submitted by gzz on May 6, 2022 - 11:08am.

Good performance for me lately. My conservative longs go down a little, my shorts plunge. Only TSLA and WE have yet to collapse. LYFT, SQ, MSFT, COIN, DASH, UBER, NET: all disasters. I regret missing CVNA.

Biggest long position now is XOM. I think China demand is coming back heavy when they give up on lockdowns and Russia supply will drop with sanctions and parts and service issues.

Biden also released so much oil from the SPR this year that it is at record lows and they are planning to start restocking now.

Submitted by limkotir on May 6, 2022 - 2:21pm.

My thoughts on your stocks (not even worth $0.0001):

TSLA - this either will 2-3x from here, or stay in a trading channel for the next few years due to the rich valuation. TSLA is a polarization stock! If they truly achieve and dominate the autonomous driving with their tech, look out!

WE - they are public? Oh they are, back in late 2021. I feel a lot of the wind in their sail was taken off while they were still private and go a huge devaluation.

LYFT - no opinion, generally not a fan of gig economy companies

SQ - I am looking to scale into SQ

MSFT - I hold shares

COIN - no opinion

DASH - see lyft

UBER - see lyft

NET - Cathy Woods ARKK type of holding. I always think of FSLY, SNOW, DDOG when I see NET

CVNA - if they cannot turn a profit during the inflated used car price time period, how are they ever going to do that in "normal" times? I used to hold SFT before I sold and took my losses at around $7/share, I think it is now $3?

Stocks may be in the late denial or panic selling phase, haven't felt there is a real capitulation on the boarder index yet, but definitely on those hyper growth + no profit companies -- I do think out of the ashes, there will be some gems that will arise to be 10x or more 30 years from now, could it be TDOC, SHOP, RBLX? Who knows!

https://www.reddit.com/r/WallStreetBetsC...

I typically do best buying profitable and growing companies with cash flows that just fell on a company specific issue that are correctable within couple quarters or years. A good example is hotels, did you see Marriott and Hilton are both trading near their all-time highs, a world of difference vs. 2020.

I believe EPAM, which I mentioned earlier fits the mold, the minute Ukraine war ends, that stock will pick up 25% to 50% from here -- the world needs cheap software / tech engineers from Eastern Europe that cost 25% to 50% of your tech bros in Silicon Valley.

Submitted by gzz on May 6, 2022 - 2:52pm.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Sorry there was a typo. Not MSFT, but MSTR. That has been a real winner for me, and I’ve locked in gains by selling the puts I purchased months ago while remaining short.

TSLA is now worth more than every other auto public company combined. You think that will go up to be 3x everyone else combined?

I believe they are not a leader in self driving. GM, not Tesla, has self driving taxis in SF. And Google does in Phoenix. They have slipped behind VW in Europe and BYD in China in electric car sales.

Tesla is certainly a premium brand people will pay a lot of money for, but their cars seem kind of dated compared to the electric Mustang. I think they remain a niche player selling premium electric cars only.

For SQ, their bitcoin business is collapsing, down 50% YoY. Their merchant service and cashapp are low margin and ultra competitive and money-losing. I covered half my position today, but will reshort any rally.

Just in everyday life, i have done P2P payments with paypal, google pay, and zelle. I have never used venmo, but know many people who do. I have never once heard IRL a word about SQ’s cashapp. They are losers in a market where they have to compete with free products with big network effects.

The only time i ever hear about cashapp online is online begging.

Finally they overpaid for a “pay later” company that is far behind affirm in market share, and affirm is circling the drain.

WE 1.0 was nearly bankrupt, but bailed out and restructured by softbank and then went public by spac and merger . They continue to lose billions. I am cautious only because it is heavily shorted, smallcap, and could squeeze.

Submitted by gzz on May 6, 2022 - 2:55pm.

My friend has a e-tail consulting business and has a lot of Ukrainian employees. We need to make sure they have productive software jobs so they don’t turn to ransomware.

I was short DDOG and covered after a year at no gain. It went way up and back down and I lost patience.

Submitted by limkotir on May 7, 2022 - 5:37pm.

MSTR and Grayscale appear to be one way to play the bitcoin exposure. No one knows what the future holds, so good to have a little exposure to everything.

Yep. I think you're referring to the side-by-side bar chart of Tesla vs. top 10 + more legacy automakers by market value.

I mean, if you had to buy one, which one would you buy? I would definitely buy the bag of legacy companies for the value, but Tesla might truly conquer the world with its Level X autonomous driving, data center, and image based AI driving software -- just think of the value it can bring for folks living in the ex-urbs who commutes M-F, and the dynamics in real estate landscape(!!!); folks can jump in, do work, or nap, during their commutes.

Tesla could also scale into insurance, entertainment distribution in its infotainment system. Tesla is already fairly well vertically integrated from their energy production (Solar City), storage (Tesla Battery), distribution (Tesla grid-scale batteries), and utilization (Telsa cars / SUVs / Cybertruck).

Don't listen to what I say, as when it comes to stocks, I tend to just buy the index, plus some hand selected picks, and accept my fate there! haha

Submitted by limkotir on May 8, 2022 - 12:57pm.

You may appreciate Dave Lee on Investing, just be aware he's a perma Tesla bull, while still does a good job presenting counter-arguments. In his this morning's video, he addresses the Tesla vs. the combined top 12 auto makers' market valuation topic:

Tesla Stock is Overvalued. Or Not. (Ep. 597):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93KQV7fqxAo

Submitted by gzz on May 9, 2022 - 10:55am.

Mstr down 22% today, coin -18%, tesla -7%, sq -14%.

Maybe I can stay solvent longer than the market can be irrational!

Submitted by gzz on May 9, 2022 - 10:56am.

Dupe

Submitted by limkotir on May 9, 2022 - 12:02pm.

gzz wrote:
Mstr down 22% today, coin -18%, tesla -7%, sq -14%.

Maybe I can stay solvent longer than the market can be irrational!

Keep clam and carry on. If you liked the prices you paid for those stocks before, you should love the current prices!

Submitted by gzz on May 10, 2022 - 1:33pm.

Ay carumba!

My COIN puts purchased for ~$200 and sold for $500-1000 are now worth $5000-8000 each.

A 30-bagger, lost because of my tendency to “take profits.”

I am glad it is hard to sell RE, I probably would have panic sold something during the covid early days when I saw all the cell phone videos of people dropping dead in the streets in China and freaked me out.

Submitted by limkotir on May 11, 2022 - 9:42am.

Crypto is having a moment the last 24 hours and 7 days.

Luna / Terra (which was in the top 10 crypto by market value just days ago) crashed 99% at point, and its stable coin which is to peg 1:1 to the $1 USD, is trading at $0.59 to the dollar.

Last 5 days:
Peak: $77
Low: $0.70

What a ride!!!!!!!!!

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LUNA1-US...

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UST-USD?...

Submitted by gzz on May 11, 2022 - 10:17am.

I followed that Terra Luna thing yesterday after never hearing of it before.

They are all technobabble ponzi schemes IMO. Terra like so many of them advertised “safe” 20% APR. Same MO as IceSave, Allen Sanford, and many other ponzis, even our local Capenella restaurant Ponzi scheme lady.

I covered 80% of my COIN short and 25% of my MSTR short and 75% of my SQ short.

My best short prices on Coin are 190 and 700s for MSTR. They are at the point where delaying capital gains taxes outweighs risk of holding them.

GO popped 16% today too and I exited 1/3 of my position. It is my favorite grocery all around and growing quickly, but it is no longer undervalued IMO.

Submitted by gzz on May 11, 2022 - 10:26am.

My conviction in energy stocks is growing. I don’t expect huge returns necessarily, but think the likelihood of the large and megacaps to go up 25% in 1-3 years is quite high. Meanwhile 4% dividends and huge share buybacks.

The moment China gives up its failing covid lockdowns, the world’s largest importer will suddenly see a wave of demand. Sanctions and loss of Western production parts and tech will squeeze then strangle Russian production. I think the decline curve will look like Venezuela’s.

Submitted by gzz on May 13, 2022 - 10:27pm.

I started another oil stock position in Repsol, the Spanish oil major. Half their production is in the USA and they refine and sell in Europe and Latin America. I also added this week two more Canadian oil majors, IMO and CNQ.

I dug up some supply numbers. The Ukraine war has caused Russian production to fall to an 18 year low, by roughly a million bbl /day. Meanwhile China’s covid lockdowns are reducing their imports by 1.2 million, almost a perfect cancellation. Russia production will keep declining, but China I imagine is going to join the rest of the world soon and end its lockdowns.

Buffet seems to agree. He now has 15% of OXY worth $9 billion and also keeps buying Chevron.

Submitted by gzz on May 24, 2022 - 10:27am.

My shorts listed in the post above are down today by ~10% for coin, rcl and mstr, 14% for lyft, 8% for dash and uber.

No longer short dash. I was also short SNAP a small amount and I covered the last bit of that old position when it dropped 40% this morning. Covered half of my lyft short.

My increasing bullishness on energy led me to buy XOM calls today dated mostly mid-August.

I also purchased some long and deeply out of the money puts in AAPL and several Taiwanese companies because I am worried about a Chinese invasion. The $250 I spent is a little insurance policy.

Submitted by gzz on May 24, 2022 - 12:57pm.

Sometimes investing isn’t hard intellectually, the hard part is sticking to your guns.

I am getting that kind of conviction now on oil stocks.

People are already starting to pile into them, but their firehose gusher profits, real actual profit not techco “pro forma” profit, is so high they still have very low multiples.

The only real issue oilcos have is political risk and cost inflation.

But political risk can be largely avoided by sticking to companies focused on the US and Canada, and also by just keeping a diverse portfolio. And cost inflation only matters if they want to ramp up production. For milking existing wells, inflation is a benefit since capital costs are baked in at old prices and marginal costs are small.

The spike in natural gas costs in Europe the past year has been stunning, and barely put a dent in demand. I believe we’ll see this worldwide over the next year with oil and NGLs.

On top of these profits, refining margins I believe will also increase. Nobody in their right mind would build a big new refinery if it were even possible, making the existing ones more valuable each year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 24, 2022 - 2:42pm.

You have a higher risk appetite than I do being so focussed and trying to time things. I have a well modeled widely diversified portfolio set up and managed by Merrill. For years my XOM and ENB lagged. Each year I would ask during my annual review whether we should get rid of it. The answer was always let the dividends build your position over time at these low valuations and their day will come. The number of share has probably doubled since Ive held it and now their day has come. Thats why I beleive in hiring professionals for important jobs that involve lots of money

Ironically the one energy company I got rid of has done nothing and it was the right call. Sold it about 3 years ago. Im not gonna claim any credit though. It was Kinder Morgan and they sent me a K-1 each year with international income. I got rid of it because I do my own taxes and hated dealing with that each year. Better lucky than good

Submitted by gzz on August 26, 2022 - 4:46pm.

UPDATE:

Taking a huge bath on the Trump company warrants, DWACW. Still holding. I made a crazy and realized profit the first day of trading, like 6k, but down 10k since so about -4k total.

COIN: Amazing short, amazing profits on the puts. Still holding a small short position mainly to delay capgains.

MSTR: What should have been a large profit is only a small one due to poor timing in increasing and decreasing my position.

RCL: Big profits! Closed short out completely.

UBER/LYFT: keeping small short position mainly to delay taxes. The most obvious shorts ever. The largest money incineration factories in Wall Street history.

IRBT: AMZN is buying them! I purchased thinking it would be GOOG that bought them. Small profit below market returns due to poor entry timing.

YNDX/RSX: Frozen due to Russia sanctions. At one point down 90%, now down about 50%.

INTC/GOOG between the two, roughly breakeven.

WE: Just closed the position for a large profit. Should have been even larger, the company is worth 0. But it is heavily shorted and at risk of becoming a meme stock.

NVDA: Shorted 15 shares yesterday. Closed position today, ~$220 profit!

Submitted by gzz on August 26, 2022 - 4:52pm.

Oil Update: Not great returns, but still beating the market. I remain very bullish. Had to sell a little to fund a home downpayment. I replaced my first round of ultrabullish call options that expired worthless. These new calls have already doubled.

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