Ray Dalio free "debt" book

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Submitted by phaster on September 18, 2018 - 7:35am

Ray Dalio: We're in the seventh inning of the economic cycle,... pension and healthcare obligations will put pressure on the budget(s), etc.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/09/11/ra...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/20...

seems Dalio's time frame ties in w/ various international trends that I've been watching,...

Quote:

60 Minutes Australia

...real estate and finance experts who predict property prices could slide by as much as 40 per cent in the next year. And if they’re right and numbers like that eventuate, there’s only one certainty: our entire economy faces catastrophe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smPR0s2W-Ck

just wondering anyone here see a bullish scenario a few years forward???

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 18, 2018 - 11:21am.

IMO China has enough reserves to continue to weather the economic environment for now (maybe a few years).

But as Cramer said:
China's stock market wouldn't be tumbling if the US was losing the trade war

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 18, 2018 - 1:20pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO China has enough reserves to continue to weather the economic environment for now (maybe a few years).

But as Cramer said:
China's stock market wouldn't be tumbling if the US was losing the trade war

The 2 statements above are kinda contradictory.

China will lose market share in USA. But our corporations will lose commensurate market share in China.

But we will continue to import just the same from China, and from Vietnam, Myanmar, Africa, etc.. but made by Chinese manufacturers who relocate. My Chinese friend is moving some production to Ethiopia and Rwanda. Those developing countries will turn around and buy higher value stuff from China. Or maybe corporations will absorb some of the tariffs and/or consumers will pay higher prices and China won’t lose much sales.

US farmers cannot offshore to sell into the Chinese market.
Goldman, JP Morgan and our financial firms will lose market share in China. The financial executives criticized Trump but backed-off from being political for fear of his vengeful retribution.

We will lose the trade war and we will be poorer. US voters are so dumb. They don’t know any business news coming from Africa and other parts of fhe world. China is now Africa’s largest trading partner with huge business deals that should have been ours if we had better policies. The USA is not the be-all-end/all in the world.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 18, 2018 - 1:24pm.

I saw many of Ray Dalio’s interviews. He’s very reasonable.

I heard about the book that can be downloaded for free. No time yet to read it.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 18, 2018 - 3:25pm.

"US farmers cannot offshore to sell into the Chinese market"

A lot of Soy beans are being sold to Brazil, who resell them to China.

Sadly Soy beans are the USA's biggest export to china.

(sadly not much to lose in the USA export market)

The world market for Soy would be short quite a bit without the USA Soy exports. It most likely will only be a short term hit if any to the US Soy producers.

One more note: We were already in a losing trade war for the last 20 years with china (the whole world was).

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 18, 2018 - 10:16pm.

Soybean and farm products are commodities like oil. If American farmers are trans shipping thru Brazil, they are not getting world prices.

Actually the world benefited enormously from trade with China. At first in the late 70s and 80s the cheap stuff from China held down inflation. We just underestimated China’s ability to innovate. And we got distracted with terrorism while China built business relationships. For example, all of Africa is now on China’s side. That’s a lot of votes in the UN.

I’m still waiting for a better deal than TPP. Also, if you’re Vietnam, what is the better alternative to trading with China.

Shoveler, what about American apples, chicken feet, California wines, almond, pistachios. American fashion brands, movies, etc.. they will all suffer from a trade war.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 18, 2018 - 10:54pm.

I think winning means the trade deficit should go down and turn to a surplus. At least for the economically simple minded.

Wonkblog Analysis
Under Trump’s watch, the U.S. is on track for the highest trade deficit in 10 years
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...

Submitted by phaster on September 19, 2018 - 8:28am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I saw many of Ray Dalio’s interviews. He’s very reasonable.

I heard about the book that can be downloaded for free. No time yet to read it.

if you don't have time to read, try watching youtube videos (@ 2x "playback")

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

FWIW since dalio seems to look at the economy in cycles, you might find the fourth turning author POV also kinda interesting,...

The Fourth Turning: Why American 'Crisis' May Last Until 2030

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Yfb2zQjKWE

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 19, 2018 - 9:55am.

Feels pretty good for a "crisis".

If you are looking for something better you may need to wait or expend a little effort.

Submitted by phaster on September 20, 2018 - 7:11am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Feels pretty good for a "crisis".

If you are looking for something better you may need to wait or expend a little effort.

think of it this way,... even during the winter "storm" season the weather can be nice

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 20, 2018 - 7:53am.

You can have a few crummy days in spring too.

The 70's and early 80's were no picnic either for young people but I would have hardly called them a "crisis".
(seriously It was almost like living through the great recession for 10-15 years)

Everything is just way to hyped these days IMO.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 20, 2018 - 9:57am.

What's not hyped in our society. OMG, the brownie I had was sooooo gooood!!!
We are at fault for falling for the hype.

I'm planning for a time least a run of mill cyclical recession in 2020. I will buy multi-family units at the next bottom

The "crisis" is a slow erosion of American leadership because we are not planning. Our belief that the free market when left alone is superior to planning is causing us to neglect our infraructure and people. That is causing decline. Going forward, we are becoming more third-world wiith a large uneducated, substance addicted population. Oh well, it sucks to be them.

We became rich as a whole because we did exactly what China is doing today.

Submitted by barnaby33 on September 20, 2018 - 5:46pm.

I know I shouldn't but I can't resist.

We became rich as a whole because we did exactly what China is doing today.

You've said a lot of dumb things so thankfully you didn't break your pattern.

America got rich by being absolutely nothing like China. It was a resource rich land who's native had neither the guns, the organization, nor the germ resistance to fight us. We came here took there land and built a society on it. We fought wars with the failing powers of their day and only enfranchised groups when we figured we had to, but we slowly did. We controlled the flow of the Spice, I mean oil and have kept an iron grip on that for over a century. We are the largest food exporter the world has ever seen. China is NONE of these things.

Brian you and lots of others on this blog should be ever-so-thankful that Rich is a tolerant man.

I'm not even sure who's winning the trade war, or if we are really having one yet. It's better for us to have one now than in 20 years when China will be that much stronger, or have dissolved in a paroxysm of civil war due to all the problems it has that we never had to deal with. China is like a spoiled child feeling it's strength. It knows no rules and has a hell of a victim/inferiority complex. It also steals everything under the sun. The US can't compete in a system like that. Better to get it over with now.
Josh

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 20, 2018 - 10:35pm.

What about the industrial policies of the past? Such as railroads and infrastructure building as well as government funding of science and tech that made it to civilian use?

I am too lazy to look it up now, but I read an interesting article by a famous economist arguing that we used to have an industrial policy just like China has now.

Do you even know what the trade war is all about? The US essentially wants China to cave, change domestic policy and abandon China 2025.

My question is: if the free market is so superior, them why are we so worried about the government of China interfering in their own economy? Do we have enough force of conviction to just sit back, relax and watch the monumental failure to come? Flash back to the early 2000s, the Great Firewall was supposed to miserably crumble because the Chinese cannot innovate; therefore Chinese consumers would clamor for superior western, namely American, web services.

A trade was will not work. We need an industrial policy of our own. And bringing back coal is not it.

Anyway, I'm just arguing more as an intellectual exercise, because I gave up being an American. I've read Yuval Harari and I'm embracing globalism and the 21st century. I'm a citizen of the world and I'm happy as long as human kind is better off in the aggregate. If Americans choose the wrong policies, it's their choice.

Submitted by flu on September 21, 2018 - 11:09am.

FlyerInHi wrote:

Anyway, I'm just arguing more as an intellectual exercise, because I gave up being an American. I've read Yuval Harari and I'm embracing globalism and the 21st century. I'm a citizen of the world and I'm happy as long as human kind is better off in the aggregate. If Americans choose the wrong policies, it's their choice.

Awesome. When can we expect you to renounce your u.s. citizenship, turn in your passport, and self deport? Let us know, so we can arrange a farewell party...I hear North Korea is looking for expanding citizenship.....

Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 21, 2018 - 3:43pm.

I don’t have to renounce anything. I just don’t feel any nationalism. I don’t believe I’m required to, am I? Blind nationalism is detrimental to human welfare.

As a World citizen I am willing to go wherever opportunities arise. There are millions of Americans living abroad. I may join them one day, after I have maximized my investments. Many parts of the US have better returns than foreign countries so i can arbitrage and use the rental income in retirement. Once I retire, I’ll probably return once a quarter to take care of business. If I’m sick I may need MediCare.

Of course, I want good policies that benefit Americans and by extension humankind. But if Americans insist on we-are-always-best chestthumping and acting against their own interests, then I can’t stop them.

The trade war against China is so dumb. We know what they do works in building wealth for them. So we should counter them with better ideas that would be win-win for humanity. A trade war is lose-lose.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on October 14, 2018 - 11:15pm.

I enjoyed watching Ray Dalio on TV.
He's saying a couple years out, we'll have a downturn.

https://youtu.be/5C43i3yclec

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