Prop 19 impact to the San Diego housing market?

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Submitted by carlsbadworker on November 12, 2020 - 10:08am

Please post your prediction for 6 months, 12 months or 18 months.

Let's use Rich's data to validate your prediction.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2020 - 1:14pm.

Minimal but should shake some inventory loose as seniors can transfer basis again or in ways they couldnt previous. Seniors can now move up in price so some that hung onto low tax basis will use this to move up to places they wanted near beach communities. That would be a plus for LJ, DM, Solana beach, Encinitas, Cardiff and Carlsbad. Mostly a nothingburger though

Submitted by svelte on November 12, 2020 - 3:39pm.

I don't see how Rich's data will prove how prop 19 affected housing prices. Rich's data shows how housing prices change with time, but there is no way for it to figure out how different parameters affected them.

Agree with sd that it will have minimal impact. Many - most? - of the seniors I have known in California moved when they retired anyway. I think seniors are more apt not to move if they live in the midwest from my experience.

Submitted by Escoguy on November 13, 2020 - 10:48am.

I think the basic premise would be that seniors 55+ (OMG in 3 years I'm there) would move from larger homes to smaller units which are easier to maintain/lower utility bills/have more amenities close by.

This is probably a longer term play. Data would show up with:

relative increase in portion of larger homes 3/4 BR+ on market
potential for more demand for smaller units (Condos)

I think it is a relatively small portion of the population which will
1) understand this 2) research the move 3) act on it

There may actually be some public records which will show the number of applications etc. My guess would be less than 10K persons would do this, but then it occurred to me, there may be places like some parts of greater Orange County/Pasadena where prices are higher than SD. It may put some regional arbitrage in play, still that on balance would slightly pressure relatively higher end markets. Long story short, impact will to raise the floor at the low end put a slight amount of pressure on the higher end legacy markets. Probably a health thing on balance.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 13, 2020 - 12:31pm.

The more I think of it the more I think this will be a boom for coastal real estate. So many Californians dream of living by the beach. If you live in a big home inland this will be your chance. If I could buy a big piece of land and build high end flats (3 story buildings with elevators and units all single level down by the beach in Carlsbad it would be like printing money. Of course there just isnt land to do that but I can dream.

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