Price changes in perspective (log style!)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 22, 2021 - 5:42pm
Here's that rather alarming price chart from the prior post. The rampup this year looks absolutely huge!



The price increase has been quite large, but the graph exaggerates this effect. This is because the Y axis is on a linear scale... when you are looking at a long-term compounding series like home prices, a linear scale will have the effect of making the later moves look bigger and the earlier moves (off of lower levels) look smaller. Here's a simple example: a 10% increase on 50 is 5, while a 10% increase on 500 is 50. On a linear scale, the 50 will look a lot bigger than the 5. But they are both just a 10% increase.

This can be addressed by using a log scale, in which the numbers on the Y axis increase exponentially. This will make a 10% increase always look the same, regardless of whether this entails an increase from 50 to 55 or from 500 to 550.

Here are San Diego detached prices (pr/sqft) on log scale. Unfortunately Excel kind of sucks at making nice looking log axes (or maybe I suck) but it gets the idea across:



This puts the recent move in better perspective. For instance -- in the first chart, the recent move looks significantly bigger than the 2011-13 move. In fact, the current move is actually smaller than 2011-13 (in percent terms, but that's what we really care about).

The recent price increase is substantial. But it's not as big as the linear graph made it look. Going forward I'll be doing both linear and log charts for the long-term price graphs. Here's a log graph for Case-Shiller:



Another way of comparing to the 2013 boom is by looking at the year-over-year price increase:



In nominal terms, we are at just about the same annual increase as the peak (in terms of annual increase) of the 2013 boom. However, in inflation-adjusted terms, we are still below the 2013 rate of change.

The concern now is that the recent price surge began at a much higher valuation level than the 2013 one. More on valuations in the next post. 

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Submitted by pinkflamingo on May 25, 2021 - 2:14pm.

Sdr has been posting profusely as of late. All to the tune of SD is "special" and that's why prices are going parabolic here. No matter who questions his thesis with data provided, he rebut them with, your data is wrong because from my personal realtor experience on the ground, I know better.

Anecdotal evidence is nice, but not as nice as data and references imo.

As for personal attacks, for the record, from my perspective, sdr fired the first shot from the prev thread with,

If you say so dude. Im not commenting on the national economy only the lcoal real estate market. We arent buying homes everywhere, we are buying them here. While it scratches your itch to look at the dark side of things this wont get you closer to a home in SD.

This was in response to something dz said that was devoid of anything personal.

I do appreciate sdr's numbers he provides. More numbers please.

Submitted by gzz on May 25, 2021 - 3:03pm.

I am super happy with my massive swole gainz, but anxious because I have not realized them and don't really want to.

It's like puberty, lots of new feelings to deal with all of a sudden. I am reluctant to even do the math on my net worth increase the past year.

I am thinking a lot about hedging by shorting a REIT.

I am already short a mall REIT, SPG. What had been a large gain there is now a small loss.

When I look at residential REITs, however, I cannot find any that look even a little overvalued. That doesn't mean I can't short them or buy puts, but it makes it harder.

I also buy S&P puts here and there, about $400 worth every few months.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 25, 2021 - 4:13pm.

pinkflamingo wrote:
Sdr has been posting profusely as of late. All to the tune of SD is "special" and that's why prices are going parabolic here. No matter who questions his thesis with data provided, he rebut them with, your data is wrong because from my personal realtor experience on the ground, I know better.

Anecdotal evidence is nice, but not as nice as data and references imo.

As for personal attacks, for the record, from my perspective, sdr fired the first shot from the prev thread with,

If you say so dude. Im not commenting on the national economy only the local real estate market. We arent buying homes everywhere, we are buying them here. While it scratches your itch to look at the dark side of things this wont get you closer to a home in SD.

This was in response to something dz said that was devoid of anything personal.

I do appreciate sdr's numbers he provides. More numbers please.

That was hardly a personal attack. Calling someone a d bag is a personal attack but Im over it. Lets get onto what is going on. I have been posting to try and drum up more real estate talk. To get to people to tell stories about what worked for them and what they are trying to do now. I have been posting data on a couple markets for several months with commentary. It is far beyond anecdotal. It is current up to the minute data you wont get elsewhere as to what is happening right now. I do throw in anecdotes as well but the data is presented regularly, accurately and up to the minute.

The data shows exactly what I have been claiming all along, it just comes with a substantial time lag. Im trying to provide actionable information rather a synopsis of what happened 3 to 4 months ago. Im a few months ahead due the time lags it takes escrows to close and the delays in reporting. Sales I see go into escrow mid May will show up in data in August best case scenario

More numbers coming...

Submitted by deadzone on May 25, 2021 - 8:01pm.

pinkflamingo wrote:
Sdr has been posting profusely as of late. All to the tune of SD is "special" and that's why prices are going parabolic here. No matter who questions his thesis with data provided, he rebut them with, your data is wrong because from my personal realtor experience on the ground, I know better.

Anecdotal evidence is nice, but not as nice as data and references imo.

As for personal attacks, for the record, from my perspective, sdr fired the first shot from the prev thread with,

If you say so dude. Im not commenting on the national economy only the lcoal real estate market. We arent buying homes everywhere, we are buying them here. While it scratches your itch to look at the dark side of things this wont get you closer to a home in SD.

This was in response to something dz said that was devoid of anything personal.

I do appreciate sdr's numbers he provides. More numbers please.

For the record we are both guilty of pushing the envelope on personal attacks. Although I don't think I actually called sdr a d-bag, I referred to his comments as d-bag comments. That said, you are correct in your observation, sdr is more into what he sees on the ground, anecdotal stuff. I don't mean to discount that, just doesn't peak my interest as much as macro goings on.

So the article I just saw in the UT covered Case Shiller stats from March. San Diego is #2 in the nation in YoY appreciation at 19% while National average is 13%. So we are both right. RE is nuts all over the country, due to pandemic, interest rate and other factors. But San Diego is much higher than national average for whatever reasons that can be debated.

But in my view anything that happened during Covid is just complete temporary distortion so I don't put any weight into the home sales stats for this period.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 25, 2021 - 9:48pm.

One need only go to the prior thread to verify my claims. And I use both data and anecdotal evidence. The data I use is current and up to the minute not three to four months behind like C-S. What I'm writing about now you will be reading about in a few months. Try reading my NCC Monitor. I've been posting data for many months.

In my most recent past you will find data showing that there are huge variations in SD. Carmel Valley and Mira Mesa are showing about 20% appreciation in May over last year while the Bay Area target zips of Carlsbad/encinitas/4S/Del Sur are showing 30%. The variance is Much bigger than the SD vs national data variance. Different things are happening not just in SD as compared with the US but in some communities here as compared to others.

You last comment is particularly telling. You essentially said I don't like what I'm seeing in the home sales stats for this period so I'm discounting it. I dig into many of these sales post closing to understand them better. Huge down payments if not cash, buyers coming from LA, Bay Area, Seattle, NYC with big time jobs. Nothing about that says temporary

And when I run comps for actual sales up here vs last year it's closer to 40%. I can post example after example of that

Submitted by deadzone on May 25, 2021 - 10:27pm.

Again your evidence of all Bay area people moving to San Diego is anectodal, if all these buyers were leaving those other cities for Sand Diego in droves, over the long run, then prices would go down in those cities. The only way these prices keep up is if the Fed keeps the spigot on full Covid blast. Hard to imagine that would happen. IF it does, the houses everywhere may be up 40%.

Point is, no reasonable person would extrapolate what is happening during Covid to translate to long term trend. This is pure distortion and unsustainable. It doesn't matter to me if Carmel Valley goes up 50% YoY during Covid, just means it has farther to fall if the Fed turns off the spigots.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 6:34am.

You are doing it again. I never said all Bay Area people nor did I say only Bay area people. Go back and read what I said over and over in this and the last thread. They are changing a few sub markets here that are appreciating much faster than the others. I never said they are coming in droves and specifically have said over and over We don't need many to transform the landscape here over time.

Do not discount the immense power of the passage of time. I think that is one of the biggest mistakes people make. We only need 10-20 a month to completely change these sub markets. They come with cash and high salaries that are not Covid-19 dependent. I won't even get started on the continuing wealth transfer to boomers and then from boomers. I've been talking about this trend for almost 20 years most of that here. The prime coastal areas of SD have been, are and will continue to fundamentally change. The horse has left the barn. It's not coming back

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 6:39am.

sdrealtor wrote:
You are doing it again. I never said all Bay Area people nor did I say only Bay area people. Go back and read what I said over and over in this and the last thread. They are changing a few sub markets here that are appreciating much faster than the others. I never said they are coming in droves and specifically have said over and over We don't need many to transform the landscape here over time.

Do not discount the immense power of the passage of time. I think that is one of the biggest mistakes people make. We only need 10-20 a month to completely change these sub markets. They come with cash and high salaries that are not Covid-19 dependent. I've been talking about this trend for almost 20 years most of that here. The prime coastal areas of SD have been, are and will continue to fundamentally change. The horse has left the barn. It's not coming back

Yes wealthy people buying coastal property in San Diego is nothing new, its been going on for decades. There is no new insight here.

Again I have to question this idea of cash buyers. Anybody who is purchasing a multi-million dollar home with cash is by definition an investor or uber wealthy person purchasing a 2nd, 3rd, 5th home. There is no logical reason someone would purchase real estate, especially at these absurdly elevated prices, with cash when the mortgage market is this low.

This whole moving from Bay area to San Diego to remote work is the non-sense I keep hearing. For these folks, and I'm sure some do exist, there is no reason they would purchase a home in san diego with cash, even if they had it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 9:33am.

Its been going on but nothing like what is going on today. The pace went parabolic the last year.

People that werent ready to retire decided this was a good time to wrap it up.

Clients moved here from Bay Area 2 years ago. Not investors. Not uber wealthy. Mid level managers at best. Owned a home there for a while they sold for Bay Area price. Took less than half and bought a beautiful larger, newer canyon/ocean view home. Called it quits.

We only need a few of those each month to change the landscape over time.

I sit in their backyard every Friday night enjoying dinner and drinking wine enjoying the view with them. The lifestyle is the reason.

You are looking at this as if things are black and white with no middle ground. The world is mostly grey. There are lots of things moving our market not just WFH. That is another factor but not the only thing. Bring 10 WFH engineers to prime areas in SD each month and you change the market for everyone.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 10:24am.

So I just did some back testing in my neighborhood. Far from perfect but truly a small window into what is going on.

There have been 20 closed sales. I cross referenced buyers where possible with LinkedIn profiles.

7 all cash
Average down payment is 60% with none less than 30%

6 currently work for or own a business that has no presence in SD. These can be nothing other than choosing to live here and work from home. Not sure that could be any clearer. Thats 30%!

10 of them or 50% came from elsewhere.

7 of them (more than 1/3rd) from Bay Area. Others from Seattle, AZ and Canada

4 of the Bay Area folks work for companies that are based there and dont have operations here

Prices in my neighborhood are up close to 40% y-o-y. These folks are driving that

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 10:32am.

sdrealtor wrote:

You are looking at this as if things are black and white with no middle ground. The world is mostly grey. There are lots of things moving our market not just WFH. That is another factor but not the only thing. Bring 10 WFH engineers to prime areas in SD each month and you change the market for everyone.

Why do you insist the lifestyle in San Diego is so great? Specifically how is it better than Bay Area? Why would someone in great financial shape and owns their own home in the Bay area want to move to San Diego? Most people I've met from Bay area look down on San Diego. Just because your neighbors moved here from the bay area don't try to extrapolate that to some type of long term trend. Again, what's happening during Covid is a massive distortion and you can throw away any/all statistics from this year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 11:42am.

Again different strokes. Not everyone thinks like you. Not everyone has to think like me either. Just a handful and the market changes. You may not love the lifestyle but I'm heading out for a super Twilight round I can watch an ocean view sunset from then a nice dinner and wine with friends outside. Maybe not your lifestyle buy a dream for many. If you don't love the lifestyle life affords you here why stay? Can't be for the Affordable housing.

You asked for data, I provided it. You didn't like it. You threw it away.

Submitted by an on May 26, 2021 - 11:43am.

deadzone wrote:

Why do you insist the lifestyle in San Diego is so great?

Because it 100% is. We don't need 100% of the Bay Area people to agree. We just need a steady flow of them (maybe 100-200/month) to do so and that should change the buyer pool. Especially considering the current supply level.

deadzone wrote:
Again, what's happening during Covid is a massive distortion and you can throw away any/all statistics from this year.
If you think what happened over the last year is distortion, then are you suggesting that we'll see a similar decline after June 15th when everything is opened back up in CA?

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 12:04pm.

an wrote:
deadzone wrote:

Why do you insist the lifestyle in San Diego is so great?

Because it 100% is. We don't need 100% of the Bay Area people to agree. We just need a steady flow of them (maybe 100-200/month) to do so and that should change the buyer pool. Especially considering the current supply level.

deadzone wrote:
Again, what's happening during Covid is a massive distortion and you can throw away any/all statistics from this year.
If you think what happened over the last year is distortion, then are you suggesting that we'll see a similar decline after June 15th when everything is opened back up in CA?

I never said I don't like the lifestyle, I live here by choice. But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. There is nothing dramatic that has changed that makes San Diego more attractive than it was before. I would say less attractive unless you like huge crowds and traffic everywhere. There are also far less golf courses than there were 10 years ago and there is no longer an NFL team.

But again, you guys keep talking about "steady stream" of Bay area folks moving here. You have no evidence that statistically more people are moving from San Diego to Bay Area than vice versa. And the only reason it is affecting prices, as you point out, is due to the record low inventory. Most of the factors for the low inventory are due to Covid so you really think the inventory is going to stay super low forever? What do you think is going to happen when the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums expire? No affect?

I am not predicting prices immediately return to pre-covid levels after June 15, but certainly expect prices to flat line. But if (and that is a big IF) the Fed begins tapering to significant level, yes that will cause dramatic downward pressure on all asset prices.

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 12:10pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I'm heading out for a super Twilight round I can watch an ocean view sunset from then a nice dinner and wine with friends outside. Maybe not your lifestyle buy a dream for many.

So you can't get super twilight golf with ocean view in the Bay area?

Also, you never provide any meaningful data, just individual examples from your neighborhood or personal experience. You complain about how real economic data, most notably Case Shiller, is flawed since it doesn't match your experience in your little bubble.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 12:38pm.

deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
deadzone wrote:

Why do you insist the lifestyle in San Diego is so great?

Because it 100% is. We don't need 100% of the Bay Area people to agree. We just need a steady flow of them (maybe 100-200/month) to do so and that should change the buyer pool. Especially considering the current supply level.

deadzone wrote:
Again, what's happening during Covid is a massive distortion and you can throw away any/all statistics from this year.
If you think what happened over the last year is distortion, then are you suggesting that we'll see a similar decline after June 15th when everything is opened back up in CA?

I never said I don't like the lifestyle, I live here by choice. But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. There is nothing dramatic that has changed that makes San Diego more attractive than it was before. I would say less attractive unless you like huge crowds and traffic everywhere. There are also far less golf courses than there were 10 years ago and there is no longer an NFL team.

But again, you guys keep talking about "steady stream" of Bay area folks moving here. You have no evidence that statistically more people are moving from San Diego to Bay Area than vice versa. And the only reason it is affecting prices, as you point out, is due to the record low inventory. Most of the factors for the low inventory are due to Covid so you really think the inventory is going to stay super low forever? What do you think is going to happen when the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums expire? No affect?

I am not predicting prices immediately return to pre-covid levels after June 15, but certainly expect prices to flat line. But if (and that is a big IF) the Fed begins tapering to significant level, yes that will cause dramatic downward pressure on all asset prices.

When they expire I expect little to no impact. I'd put money on it

I know one person that moved to Bay area and bought house there. My client and friend. When Covid-19 hit he saw a once in a lifetime opportunity to sell his house here and be able to compete there. His family is there. He bought a nice one story with nice backyard and pool he can entertain his family. He had been wanting to for over ten years and this was his chance. I spoke to him last week and he could never pull off today what we did last year.

The ability to work from home or a flexible workplace has changed. About 1/3 of recent buyers in my hood are working for a company that's not here.. That was not the case ten years ago.

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 1:14pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

When they expire I expect little to no impact. I'd put money on it

When you say little to no impact when Covid measures expire, then you think YoY Case Shiller will continue growing at a 19% clip?

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 1:16pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

yeah and 20 years ago it was unrecognizable from 40 years ago. So what's your point? More useless keyboard strokes from sdr

Submitted by an on May 26, 2021 - 1:21pm.

deadzone wrote:
I never said I don't like the lifestyle, I live here by choice. But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. There is nothing dramatic that has changed that makes San Diego more attractive than it was before. I would say less attractive unless you like huge crowds and traffic everywhere. There are also far less golf courses than there were 10 years ago and there is no longer an NFL team.

But again, you guys keep talking about "steady stream" of Bay area folks moving here. You have no evidence that statistically more people are moving from San Diego to Bay Area than vice versa. And the only reason it is affecting prices, as you point out, is due to the record low inventory. Most of the factors for the low inventory are due to Covid so you really think the inventory is going to stay super low forever? What do you think is going to happen when the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums expire? No affect?

I am not predicting prices immediately return to pre-covid levels after June 15, but certainly expect prices to flat line. But if (and that is a big IF) the Fed begins tapering to significant level, yes that will cause dramatic downward pressure on all asset prices.


I've been living here for over 30 years, and I can see the changes. Better or worse is up to the person. To me, it's definitely for the better. Especially over the last 10 years.

As for the evidence of "steady stream", the best we can do is anecdotal since there's no data source anywhere that I can find that have this data. If you do, please share. If you don't, then I'd take anecdotal data than no data at all. As Rich's tag line say at the bottom of the site, "In God We Trust. Everyone else Bring Data". As for another anecdotal, my ex-coworker had 7 cousins in the bay area at the start of the pandemic working in tech, and 4 of them moved back to San Diego spring/summer of last year and bought in NCC. They were still working for the same company when they moved down (did not get fired/lay off).

You can't have it both ways, if 2020 was a massive distortion, then it must revert to the norm. If prices stay high and continue to go up, then it's not a distortion and has just become the norm, or at least changed the norm.

Submitted by an on May 26, 2021 - 1:23pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

yeah and 20 years ago it was unrecognizable from 40 years ago. So what's your point? More useless keyboard strokes from sdr


This is what you said
deadzone wrote:
But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc.
So which is it? Did the change or is it mostly the same?

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 1:28pm.

an wrote:
deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

yeah and 20 years ago it was unrecognizable from 40 years ago. So what's your point? More useless keyboard strokes from sdr


This is what you said
deadzone wrote:
But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc.
So which is it? Did the change or is it mostly the same?

The lifestyle sdr is referring to is weather, beach and outdoor activities. Those haven't changed in principle. But if anything they have gotten worse since more crowds competing for those resources.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 1:37pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

When they expire I expect little to no impact. I'd put money on it

When you say little to no impact when Covid measures expire, then you think YoY Case Shiller will continue growing at a 19% clip?

The eviction and foreclosure moratoriums expiring will have no impact. That means no inventory of any measureable amount coming from that or change in prices from that.

Of course I expect prices to slow down but that will have nothing to do with the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums ending.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 1:44pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

yeah and 20 years ago it was unrecognizable from 40 years ago. So what's your point? More useless keyboard strokes from sdr

Ummm....actually it wasnt all that different visually although the demographics between the 1980 and 2000 up here changed dramatically. Now both are changing even more and even faster

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 1:42pm.

deadzone wrote:
an wrote:
deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Drive around Encinitas along Coast Highway and you will see a place unrecognizable from what it was twenty years ago. There are fifty shades of grey

yeah and 20 years ago it was unrecognizable from 40 years ago. So what's your point? More useless keyboard strokes from sdr


This is what you said
deadzone wrote:
But the lifestyle in San Diego is mostly the same as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc.
So which is it? Did the change or is it mostly the same?

The lifestyle sdr is referring to is weather, beach and outdoor activities. Those haven't changed in principle. But if anything they have gotten worse since more crowds competing for those resources.

ROTFLMAO. Brings to mind the Yogi Berra classic "Nobody goes there anymore, its too crowded"

Submitted by deadzone on May 26, 2021 - 2:35pm.

Okay, so the fact that SD beaches are more crowded makes them more desirable than before? Got it. Your right it sucked back in the day when I was forced to park right next to the beach. It's way better walking the 5 blocks, the exercise does me good. And surfing back in the day was so boring with only 5-10 guys to share the break with, what an ordeal. Now I get the pleasure of sharing it with 50 guys, so much nicer. ROTFLMAO.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 26, 2021 - 2:39pm.

Whether it is nicer is subject to individual preferences.

Whether it is more crowded and thus popular is not

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 27, 2021 - 9:58am.

Another anecdote. Ran into agent friends that sold nearby neighbor house and one around the corner. Nearby neighbor had 9 offers on house with big lot and pool. Week after that house around corner had 13 offers. I asked if buyers who lost out on house one moved onto house two. Answer was no, all completely different buyers. I asked where buyers were coming from. Answer was nearly all from Bay Area. Buyers of first house coming from San Jose. Buyers of second from Santa Clara. They are lined up behind them waiting for the next one. Purely anecdotal but this is pretty solid evidence of what's going on up here. This time next year we will likely have tract homes routinely selling in the $2m's. There's one coming soon that should be the first in next week or two

Submitted by deadzone on May 27, 2021 - 11:22am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Another anecdote. Ran into agent friends that sold nearby neighbor house and one around the corner. Nearby neighbor had 9 offers on house with big lot and pool. Week after that house around corner had 13 offers. I asked if buyers who lost out on house one moved onto house two. Answer was no, all completely different buyers. I asked where buyers were coming from. Answer was nearly all from Bay Area. Buyers of first house coming from San Jose. Buyers of second from Santa Clara. They are lined up behind them waiting for the next one. Purely anecdotal but this is pretty solid evidence of what's going on up here. This time next year we will likely have tract homes routinely selling in the $2m's. There's one coming soon that should be the first in next week or two

So given the small sample size and record low inventory you can't draw any conclusions from this. However, regarding the Bay area folks buying in SD, it would be interesting to know, are they actually up and moving to live here, or buying 2nd, 3rd home etc. for investment? If they are moving, why are they choosing to live in NCC san diego over San Jose or Santa Clara?

And of course the relevant data which would be hard or impossible to know, are there more Bay area people moving to San Diego (in real numbers) than before? Are there more people moving to SD from Bay Area than vice versa?

Submitted by gzz on May 27, 2021 - 1:54pm.

Are there more people moving to SD from Bay Area than vice versa?

For purposes of RE markets, it is the movement of people with money that count.

The long term trend is natives with average and below skills and ambition are leaving both SF and SD areas and being replaced with high skill and ambition people.

Something else I have noticed is that people leaving the bay area because of the cost and crowds who have limited wealth go to inland states, Oregon, and the Sacramento area.

The ones with money, earned and family money both, are more attracted to San Diego (other spots include southern OC and Tahoe).

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 27, 2021 - 3:16pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Another anecdote. Ran into agent friends that sold nearby neighbor house and one around the corner. Nearby neighbor had 9 offers on house with big lot and pool. Week after that house around corner had 13 offers. I asked if buyers who lost out on house one moved onto house two. Answer was no, all completely different buyers. I asked where buyers were coming from. Answer was nearly all from Bay Area. Buyers of first house coming from San Jose. Buyers of second from Santa Clara. They are lined up behind them waiting for the next one. Purely anecdotal but this is pretty solid evidence of what's going on up here. This time next year we will likely have tract homes routinely selling in the $2m's. There's one coming soon that should be the first in next week or two

So given the small sample size and record low inventory you can't draw any conclusions from this. However, regarding the Bay area folks buying in SD, it would be interesting to know, are they actually up and moving to live here, or buying 2nd, 3rd home etc. for investment? If they are moving, why are they choosing to live in NCC san diego over San Jose or Santa Clara?

And of course the relevant data which would be hard or impossible to know, are there more Bay area people moving to San Diego (in real numbers) than before? Are there more people moving to SD from Bay Area than vice versa?

Its hardly a small sample size and you can choose to ignore it. However, a few things. Right now we have a minimum of 15 folks looking to buy homes in my neighborhood from the Bay Area probably more. They are moving here to live in primary residences with families or to retire or whatever. They are moving here for nicer weather, nicer homes for a fraction of the price up there, beaches, better schools, new homes, bigger homes, wonderful outdoor spaces to enjoy and more. Ive been here 22 years. I know tons of people here. I sit on board committees and review architectural changes to homes. I see what they are doing and spending to improve the homes they buy here. If I wasnt bound by confidentiality I could share unbeleievably frivilous changes people are spending massive amounts of money on.

In all those years Ive seen nothing like this. We did not have many coming from there in prior years. People's values and job situations have changed through this pandemic. Not everyone but enough to radically change this place. They will love it here as much as my friends that came here two years ago do. Its not going back. They are not going back. No how, no way.

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