Powerball

User Forum Topic
Submitted by moneymaker on January 6, 2016 - 7:48am

Bought 3 tickets, 2 more than I need. Anybody else playing? Not sure whether to take the cash or 20 year payout. Also considering buying some Ronald McDonalds House raffle tickets, anybody know the address of the house they are raffling off? Anybody in Temecula feel the earthquake, didn't feel it down here in San Diego.

Submitted by Coronita on January 6, 2016 - 8:16am.

The only raffle I participate in is the BMW CCA annual raffle. The odds of winning a car are 1 in 5000. And that's a lot better than the odds of someone having my medical condition: 1 in 10000

I've won the unlucky health raffle, but I haven't won an M3/M4 yet. :(

Submitted by The-Shoveler on January 6, 2016 - 8:18am.

I just wish the Powerball was $1 a ticket, $2 seems a bit steep for a what the heck slot machine pull.

That 4.x quake was probably 75 miles out from Temecula

Doubt anyone would feel it in TV.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 6, 2016 - 9:14am.

Yeah if the powerball was a slot machine in Vegas I probably would walk right by it and not play. By the way flu the second grand prize in the McDonalds raffle is a 2016 BMW M6 convertible which goes from 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. They are also giving away a 2016 tesla model S.

Submitted by Coronita on January 6, 2016 - 9:16am.

moneymaker wrote:
Yeah if the powerball was a slot machine in Vegas I probably would walk right by it and not play. By the way flu the second grand prize in the McDonalds raffle is a 2016 BMW M6 convertible which goes from 0-60 in 4.2 seconds. They are also giving away a 2016 tesla model S.

Yeah but the odds are really slim relative to the bmw cca raffle

Submitted by moneymaker on January 6, 2016 - 9:31am.

True,depending on number of tickets sold. Just found out the Powerball gives option for 29 year payout. So I would probably take that to insure future ability to be a philanthropist with a write off.

Submitted by paramount on January 6, 2016 - 11:15am.

I did not feel the quake in Temec

Submitted by zk on January 6, 2016 - 1:29pm.

I did feel the quake in Carmel Valley. I woke just before my alarm, and I was lying perfectly still in bed. I felt a slight vibration and wondered if it was a quake or maybe my wife moving some furniture. Yes, she does that before 7am sometimes. Sure enough, it was at the exact time of the quake in Banning.

I'll buy a ticket if I remember.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 6, 2016 - 1:59pm.

$500 Million now. I'm going to give everyone in my family $14,000 if I win the "big one".

Submitted by exsdgal on January 6, 2016 - 3:27pm.

How does one buy a Powerball ticket? I know tickets can be bought at a convenience store, is there something specific to do for these tickets.

The odds of me checking Piggington at this time of the day is rare, and historically anything I hear or read out of the blue has affected my life in some shape or form. Makes me wonder should I buy one today? (As I write this I hear a rolling thunder) In case I end up buying one and win, each of you shall receive a token of appreciation :-) Ciao.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 6, 2016 - 3:55pm.

exsdgal wrote:
How does one buy a Powerball ticket? I know tickets can be bought at a convenience store, is there something specific to do for these tickets.

It's super easy. You walk into a store that sells tickets (liquor store, convenience store, wherever) plunk down $2 per ticket and they give you a chit of paper with your numbers on it.

Then after the drawing tonight you look online and see if you matched all five numbers and the power ball number.

Submitted by no_such_reality on January 6, 2016 - 5:00pm.

I used to enjoy it for the entertainment value of the fantasy for a day or two. And the occasional $10 and chance to match 5 and win a million or two. In October, they revamped and now almost all the money goes to just the final jackpot.

Before you could match 5 of 59 at about 1 in 5 million odds and due to Cali's para mutual payout system get $1-$2 million. It was still statistically irrelevant, but a more reasonable fantasy. Now, it's 1 in 11 million for Saturday's person that hit 5 was a mere $424K. Sure, $424K isn't anything to sneeze it. I think it'll even buy a house in SD, a condo in OC or a downpayment in San Fran.

Submitted by Hatfield on January 6, 2016 - 8:42pm.

If you win, don't tell anyone. Certainly don't tell any of us Piggs.

https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comme...

Submitted by Reality on January 6, 2016 - 9:10pm.

“Lottery: A tax on people who are bad at math.”

Ambrose Bierce

Submitted by Coronita on January 7, 2016 - 12:31am.

So, my understanding is that Powerball has 6 numbers.

The first 5 you pick from 1 to 69.
The last number you pick from 1 to 26.

So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.

But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren't you basically saying: what's the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?

Hypothetically, I guess if you were able to buy every single combination out of the 6 numbers, it would cost you $292.2 million for all the tickets. And with the current jackpot at $550 million, you would come out ahead $257.8 million, if no one else picked the same number. But if someone else happens to pick the same number as you, than you would have to share the prize.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 7, 2016 - 7:18am.

Yes that is true flu. The worst part about the whole lottery thing is the taxes. In Europe there is no tax on the lottery. When you think about it,it really is a double tax because when you buy the ticket half of the money goes into a pot that replaces what would have been tax money for government programs. By the way the jackpot is now $675 Million! To calculate the odds it is (69!/64!5! times 26) a combination not a permutation.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 7, 2016 - 8:18am.

flu wrote:

So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.

But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren't you basically saying: what's the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?

No, it makes no difference if you pick the numbers or a random number generator picks the numbers for you. In both cases the only issue is that the numbers on your ticket match the numbers picked at the drawing. Just because the computer picked the numbers for you it's no different then if you rolled dice, or consulted your astrological chart.

Btw... if it was a case of what are the odds that the same six numbers are picked twice by two independent random events that wouldn't double your odds. You would multiply them. so 1:292.2 million times 1:292.2 million so around 1:85.3 billion.

Submitted by Coronita on January 7, 2016 - 8:21am.

XBoxBoy wrote:
flu wrote:

So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.

But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren't you basically saying: what's the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?

No, it makes no difference if you pick the numbers or a random number generator picks the numbers for you. In both cases the only issue is that the numbers on your ticket match the numbers picked at the drawing. Just because the computer picked the numbers for you it's no different then if you rolled dice, or consulted your astrological chart.

Btw... if it was a case of what are the odds that the same six numbers are picked twice by two independent random events that wouldn't double your odds. You would multiply them. so 1:292.2 million times 1:292.2 million so around 1:85.3 billion.

yeah sorry about that brain fart. It was late at night. I meant multiply them together, but then i wrote double and was too lazy to check my work and just did a times 2.

Submitted by Coronita on January 7, 2016 - 8:22am.

flu wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
flu wrote:

So the odds are 1:292.2 million (roughly) if you pick your own numbers.

But if you let the computer pick the numbers for you, aren't you basically saying: what's the probability of the same 6 numbers being picked twice by two independent random events (the machine that sold you the ticket and the actually lottery drawing), and hence you are doubling your odds to 1:584.4 million?

No, it makes no difference if you pick the numbers or a random number generator picks the numbers for you. In both cases the only issue is that the numbers on your ticket match the numbers picked at the drawing. Just because the computer picked the numbers for you it's no different then if you rolled dice, or consulted your astrological chart.

Btw... if it was a case of what are the odds that the same six numbers are picked twice by two independent random events that wouldn't double your odds. You would multiply them. so 1:292.2 million times 1:292.2 million so around 1:85.3 billion.

yeah sorry about that brain fart. It was late at night. I meant multiply them together, but then i wrote double and was too lazy to check my work and just did a times 2.

So if I were to play, my numbers would be 1,2,3,4,5,6

Submitted by no_such_reality on January 7, 2016 - 8:25am.

The picking of the numbers independent events Thus, whether you pick them or e computer picks them, the odds are the same.

With the jump from $500 to $675, a 175,000,000 picks have been made. I wonder how much more it will go up by Saturday.$750?

Perhaps it's the new economic indicator for the stock market, the number of people playing lottery jackpots.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 7, 2016 - 9:05am.

flu wrote:

So if I were to play, my numbers would be 1,2,3,4,5,6

As unintuitive as it may seem, those numbers are just as likely (or unlikely) to hit as any other numbers. It might be worth thinking about whether other people would be likely to pick those numbers though, since you share the pot. Ideally you want a set of numbers that is less likely to be picked by someone else.

Submitted by livinincali on January 7, 2016 - 9:31am.

XBoxBoy wrote:
flu wrote:

So if I were to play, my numbers would be 1,2,3,4,5,6

As unintuitive as it may seem, those numbers are just as likely (or unlikely) to hit as any other numbers. It might be worth thinking about whether other people would be likely to pick those numbers though, since you share the pot. Ideally you want a set of numbers that is less likely to be picked by someone else.

If you pick numbers that are mostly above the number of days in a month you might have a slightly better chance on being a single winner. You eliminate the birthday pickers.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 7, 2016 - 11:10am.

"livinincali" the power number is from 1-26 so can't use that logical way to pick that number,jackpot is now $700M that's 428,400,000 cash. Seems to me that most people take the cash payout, do you think that is because they don't have faith that the lottery will be around for 30 years? Did they invest in CDO's or MBS's? Anyone seen "The Big Short"? It was good but I don't know that I would give it an 8.1 like IMDB people did.

Submitted by La Jolla Renter on January 7, 2016 - 9:02pm.

Avoid the number 9. September is the most common birthday month due to Christmas and New Years baby making activity.

Flu, your strategy is sound, but I read somewhere that thousands of people will play 1,2,3,4,5,6. So pick some other numbers.

Also avoid patterns (diagonals) on the lottery ticket, those get played a lot.

Submitted by spdrun on January 7, 2016 - 9:49pm.

Throw darts at the card.

Submitted by livinincali on January 8, 2016 - 7:18am.

moneymaker wrote:
"livinincali" the power number is from 1-26 so can't use that logical way to pick that number,jackpot is now $700M that's 428,400,000 cash. Seems to me that most people take the cash payout, do you think that is because they don't have faith that the lottery will be around for 30 years? Did they invest in CDO's or MBS's? Anyone seen "The Big Short"? It was good but I don't know that I would give it an 8.1 like IMDB people did.

The final powerball number is 1-26 but the previous 5 white numbers go 1-69.

For example the last draw on Tuesday that nobody won had the following numbers.

2, 11, 47, 62, 63, 17 (17 is the powerball number)

3 of those are not days in a month although 47, 62, and 63 could be 2 digit birth years for some players.

Submitted by moneymaker on January 8, 2016 - 8:04am.

yeah 1 of those 3 is my birth year, I would probably not have picked it though. I always play quick pick,because I believe the odds are the same. Some day I will have a dream and I'll play those numbers, hasn't happened yet.

Submitted by all on January 8, 2016 - 8:57am.

XBoxBoy wrote:
flu wrote:

So if I were to play, my numbers would be 1,2,3,4,5,6

As unintuitive as it may seem, those numbers are just as likely (or unlikely) to hit as any other numbers. It might be worth thinking about whether other people would be likely to pick those numbers though, since you share the pot. Ideally you want a set of numbers that is less likely to be picked by someone else.

I've heard 6,5,4,3,2,1 is not picked as often as 1,2,3,4,5,6.

Submitted by Coronita on January 8, 2016 - 9:01am.

spdrun wrote:
Throw darts at the card.

That would be equivalent of having two random processes pick the same 6 numbers twice.

Submitted by Coronita on January 8, 2016 - 9:05am.

If there is a history or all the previous 6 number lotteries in the US, we can eliminate those as well. It is unlikely the same 6 numbers will occur twice in any lottery anywhere in the US.

Submitted by Coronita on January 8, 2016 - 9:10am.

Oh. And I didn't kniw the powerball was a $2 ticket. I assumed it was $1. But the good news is even if you bought every single number at $2/you would still come out ahead if you are the only winner with the current jackpot

...well I guess that depends if you can write off the cost of your lottery tickets as a business and or investment expense and use it to offset your gain from winning.otherwise, if you can't write it off, you will probably not come out ahead after taxes.

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