Population Change

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Anonymous on March 22, 2007 - 10:09am

Good UT story today covering population change.

With a net increase of 4,845 last year, there is another way to look at the numbers:

05'-06'
Natural Change
Births: +47,359 -- 50% Hispanic (estimate)
Deaths: -19,685 -- 70% White (estimate)

Migration
Foreign: +19,310 -- 50% Hispanic (estimate)
Domestic: -42,034 -- 85% white (estimate)
Illegal: +10,000 -- 100% Hispanic (estimate)

Population Composition Change
+5,000 - Aprox White Change, Births vs. deaths
-37,000 - Whites who migrated out
--------
Loss of 32,000 whites

+20,000 - Approx Hispanic Change, births vs. Deaths
+10,000 - Approx illegal immigrant gain
+10,448 - Approx Hispanic legal in-migration
---------
Gain of 40,000 Hispanics

Conclusion:

1)The total population change of +4,845 masks the underlying demographic changes. It is likely that San Diego lost 25-35,000 whites last year and gained 30-40,000 Hispanics, assuming only 10,000 illegals came in.

2)The 30-40,000 Hispanics were comprised of babies, illegal immigrants, unskilled migrants and a small percentage of skilled, educated Hispanic professionals.

3)The 30-40,000 whites lost were likely young professionals with families, middle aged professionals skilled laborers and retirees who died.

Note: The trends are clear, however my numbers above are far from exact.

Submitted by Cow_tipping on March 22, 2007 - 10:17am.

Evidently from ~1.5 million in 2006 charlotte NC is going to grow to over 4.5 million in the next 20 years. All those people will be Illegal, so that this area will support itself on basis of that alone.
Yes ... They were debating it on the radio.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Submitted by deadzone on March 22, 2007 - 10:19am.

It's been obvious for a long time that the bulk of population increase in San Diego is due to low income migrants and their offspring. Now that subprime lending and stated income loans are going away, few of these folks will be buying any real estate.

Submitted by Bugs on March 22, 2007 - 10:46am.

The taxpayers moving out of state include those who would have been in a position to buy properties. The non-taxpayers entering the population (including births) are almost irrelevant to the pricing of homes because they don't participate in the sales market.

Submitted by jg on March 22, 2007 - 12:51pm.

Nice back of the envelope work, juice.

The traffic on 5 continues to lighten; I've seen a real decrease in traffic on 5 North in the morning and 5 South in the evening ever since last summer.

The Census numbers are nine months old, and, since they are based on tax records, don't fully account for illegal aliens.

Yep, folks -- citizens and illegals -- are leaving town.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on March 22, 2007 - 12:54pm.

The traffic on 5 continues to lighten; I've seen a real decrease in traffic on 5 North in the morning and 5 South in the evening ever since last summer.

A few more years of this and I'll be ready to move back.

Submitted by no_such_reality on March 22, 2007 - 1:09pm.

Wow, LA/OC/SD lost over a quarter million domestic population.

Looks like a lot may have gone to the inland empire, but still, that's a lot of people to lose in a year. In fact, roughly a 100,000 housing units worth of leaving. Roughly equal to the area home sales volume.

Submitted by juice (not verified) on March 22, 2007 - 1:25pm.

When you consider the growth of population in Riverside County who commute to San Diego, I wonder if there really is hope that traffic will get lighter.

In this age of master planned sprawl, it is nice to see that some places are actually losing people! I'm facinated by the demographics as well, as you have likely picked up on. It is facinating to me that the demographics have changed so much in just one year. It is the equivelant of taking an almost all white city like Encinitas (80% white) and making it all Hispanic in just one year.

Submitted by Cow_tipping on March 22, 2007 - 1:41pm.

I know that its well known that most white people prefer mostly white neighborhoods ... as an injun, ironically most of my compatriots I seem to find flock to mostly white neighborhoods. They want Injun and white, however what I have seen is ... that creates an undesirability for whites (to a certain extent, dont want to get bogged down in this or that or get bashed for being racist or calling white people racist) and they slowly flee, making the neighborhood truly mixed race - again percentages, I know some people will not flee, and whatever. Essentially creating the exact scenario the injuns wanted to avoid. Ok see my final target ... anyway, just an off color (no pun intended) observation. I dont live in a white+injun only neighborhood, and I dont care to live in one either. I fit right in with anyone that looks at everyone as people. AKA, the working class.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Submitted by Duck on March 22, 2007 - 2:16pm.

You should note that LA County, Orange County, Cook County (Chicago) and two New York counties are even higher on the list. The quote that caught my eye was

"LA has had this profile for 20 years"

Doesn't seem to have depressed their RE prices too much. San Diego has grown into a more mature metro area and a lot of the people leaving have just been priced out just like in Manhattan, the Westside of LA, Near North areas of Chicago and you'll see that here in Coastal areas. It started in La Jolla and is slowly heading north. Oceanside will see a huge push to the east over the next 10 years.

Submitted by ucodegen on March 22, 2007 - 4:53pm.
    The taxpayers moving out of state include those who would have been in a position to buy properties. The non-taxpayers entering the population (including births) are almost irrelevant to the pricing of homes because they don't participate in the sales market.

Bingo.. something that politicians should really pay attention to. They look at all this migration (Hispanic) as a positive tax base (including illegal) to further support their 'house of cards'. In reality, that is not true. It is mixed, but has a lower overall tax 'yield' than the population that is being chased out/leaving. In the mean time, they make the barriers to entry for other foreigners (who will generally be more educated) higher.

    "LA has had this profile for 20 years"

That is why I don't live there anymore. It has turned into a sewer. I see more and more roadside trash and garbage every time I visit. A large and increasing portion of the population have a strong sense of entitlement.

Submitted by juice (not verified) on March 22, 2007 - 5:52pm.

Add 5 more white people to the list of departures. I'm getting in my car on Monday and have no plans to ever return to San Diego. I have a college degree, wife has a college degree, and I plan to start a new life in a city where I can focus on the things that matter most and not on working 80 hour weeks so that I can fund somebody's retirement by buying their tract home in Vista for 600k that they bought for 100k in 1999...only to then be so wrapped up in wealth and status that I decide I need a nicer home in Aviara, a better car, and more 'stuff' to keep up with the neighbors.

For months I have allowed myself to become angry about housing prices, spending hours researching the crash and complaining to my wife about the high cost of living here. It has made my angry, it has made me bitter, and it has made me feel like a second class citizen in my interactions with family, friends who own homes, and even random strangers. I never could have anticipated the psychological affects that this has had on me over time that include despair, anger, resentment, jealousy and on and on. Yes, the warning signs of depression - from a guy who is generally very happy, easy going and never been depressed in his life!

Yesterday, after reading the Purpose Driven Life by Rick Warren in one day, I decided that it was time to take action. Money and status mean nothing when your friends are looking down at your grave and talking about what you did with your life. They really mean nothing if you consider your life in the context of eternity. The fancy cars, huge mansions and glitzy sunglasses I see every day in North County mean nothing to me. They have lured me, they have tempted me, but at the end of the day I have overcome their pull. These trappings may provide comfort and a sense of success to some, but they have always turned me off since the early days when I came here from the Midwest to serve in the military. If that is your game - I wish you the best of luck and I realize that we are all motivated by different endeavers. Instead of spending my time trying to aquire money to fund a San Diego lifestyle, I will do these things instead:

-Move to a nice small/medium sized city with a university.
-Accept a government job, top 20% of local wages.
-Work 40 hours a week, 45 during busy weeks, 40 days off.
-Buy a 3500 sqft, home for $280,000 with a yard.
-Save $1,000 a month and also fund an IRA, 401k and 529.
-Keep my wife at home with the kids.
-Reduce my commute from 1 hour to 1 minute.
-Leave for work at 7:45 = see my kids mornings.
-Return home at 5:15 = see my kids evenings.
-Start a home based business of some sorts, someday.
-Get deeply involved in a church and community activities.
-Pursue an advanced degree, perhaps even a PHd.
-Pursue my passion for reading books and becomming a writer.
-Vacation in San Diego 2-3 times a year.

Not to get too philosophical on you, but by leaving San Diego I'm giving my family permission to focus on the things that matter most and I'm giving myself the breating room to pursue my passions and focus on service and family.
I'm sad to be leaving, but no longer angry. I'm already missing the sunshine, but also looking forward to writing my first novel and walking to work once, just because I can!

I plan to eat lots of Mexican food this weekend, walk by the ocean, visit with extended family, and at 5 a.m. on Monday leave and never look back.

Submitted by equalizer on March 22, 2007 - 5:54pm.

What a shame. Enjoy reading your posts. Just because you are probably 5 years too young, you are put in a horrible predicament. In 1999, after losing out on one condo offer after another, I put a deposit for another year lease. Luckily, (I think)I pulled back deposit the next day and we got into condo a few months later and then upgraded to a house. Otherwise, I would have left just like you. I think most of us at this board are very conservative and didn't buy a boatload of investment homes. It turns out the masses who didn't think ending with the big profits, at least more than 2 years ago.

I have lived in several cities, Chicago, Detroit, Sandusky(OH). I think you may like Ann Arbor, MI if the prices aren't too high. I know the Detroit suburbs are very nice and very affordable.
If we haven't had our meetup for this quarter it would be nice to meet to hook up.

Good luck.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on March 22, 2007 - 6:06pm.

I hope these trends continue.

With all the potential homebuyers and competition for jobs leavning, I should be able to actually afford a home in a few years!

Submitted by Happy renter on March 22, 2007 - 6:41pm.

FYI

Between July 2005 and July 2006, 42,034 more people moved from San Diego County to other places in the country than came here from elsewhere in the nation, according to county population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. That put San Diego eighth in the nation among counties with high domestic out-migration.

Since 2000, the net number of people who moved out of the county is even more staggering – 119,636, a figure greater than Carlsbad's population.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro...

Submitted by drunkle on March 22, 2007 - 7:19pm.

"In the mean time, they make the barriers to entry for other foreigners (who will generally be more educated) higher. "

or, you could examine the stats on asian immigration and see that despite their higher levels of education and potential income, they've been historically barred from entry.

"A large and increasing portion of the population have a strong sense of entitlement."

like, all the suburban white kids who didn't try very hard in school, but had the advantage of middle/upper middle class homes complaining how all the mexicans are moving in, taking over, etc.

"For months I have allowed myself to become angry about housing prices, spending hours researching the crash and complaining to my wife about the high cost of living here. It has made my angry, it has made me bitter, and it has made me feel like a second class citizen in my interactions with family, friends who own homes, and even random strangers. I never could have anticipated the psychological affects that this has had on me over time that include despair, anger, resentment, jealousy and on and on. Yes, the warning signs of depression - from a guy who is generally very happy, easy going and never been depressed in his life! "

for months... what about those people who have felt that way for generations, who don't have the option of picking up and moving out to some podunk town where they can fit right in. instead, they can be escorted right through the county and back out to some other neglected cesspit.

Submitted by Biotech-Dude on March 22, 2007 - 8:09pm.

Good for you Juice-man!

Where are you heading?

I recently moved out to the OC from Chicago. Great city! North side and northwest are great places to raise a family. RE prices are reasonable, but not as cheap as my other recommendations below....

As one poster noted, Ann Arbor, MI (Go Blue...I graduated from UM some years back) is a great town, and there are a ton of places to live. RE market in AA is way down due to Pfizer laying off 6,000 staff and the auto industry execs cutting back.

If you can stand the heat and bugs, big ass Texas bugs...I recommend Austin, TX! People are a blast, schools are great, cost of living is so dirt cheap you will love it. Lots of culture too! No joke. Austin has a lot going for it.

Good luck! I have always admired people who see something better for themselves and take action!! Good for you!

Biotech-Dude

Submitted by kewp on March 22, 2007 - 8:56pm.

I have to admit there is a somewhat racist tone to this thead that I find disturbing.

I hope everyone realizes that while RE may be through the roof here in SD (and that will soon change I'm sure), other stuff is really pretty cheap. We can thank immigrant labor for that.

That said, sorry to see you go and I'm glad you are doing what you want. I myself went through a similar phase, but decided to live the life I want to in SD, with no apologies and as a happy renter.

I have a great career, walk to work, set my own hours, make enough to pay my bills and have some fun on the weekends, great friends and generally can do as I please.

Just a vote of confidence for those that are choosing to stay!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 22, 2007 - 9:11pm.

Two words....Social Darwinism

Submitted by juice (not verified) on March 22, 2007 - 10:01pm.

We have a massive influx of poor, uneducated immigrants combined with huge demographic changes the likes of which this city and country haven't seen in generations. Simply stating these trends and detailing the reasons that you are concerned about them does not make you a racist.

Submitted by SD Realtor on March 22, 2007 - 10:44pm.

Juice -

I wish you the very best of luck also. Personally I think you are making a good decision. I have had clients who I still keep in touch with in Washington, (they love it there) but it has run up pretty fast. In Utah, St Georges may be a little to rural for you... In Virginia, they are military and really like it there. Finally in North Carolina, where that other family really likes it as well.... Personally I would pick North Carolina but there is no reason behind it.

Anyways it is nice to see you take action and give it a shot. Keep us informed and best of luck.

SD Realtor

Submitted by xironman on March 23, 2007 - 1:07am.

If you end up in Virginia and like the beach, go to the Outer Banks for a vacation, you won't regret it. As long as you are close enough to drive there for a beach fix, you won't miss the San Diego beaches much at all.

Submitted by sddreaming on March 23, 2007 - 7:00am.

Juice - good for you! Take control of your life. Here's a plug for Ann Arbor. I currently live in Ann Arbor. While I do miss the beaches and the weather that San Diego has to offer, Ann Arbor is a great place to raise a family. FWIW, it was ranked as the most educated city in the country. The schools are great. The college town atmosphere creates a vibrant culture. As someone already posted, Pfizer is shutting down its Ann Arbor facility. Pfizer employees will be relocating this summer so I expect housing here to decline this summer. The university offers world class education in many fields. Because of the poor economy, the state of Michigan is offering incentives for start-ups such as tax breaks. Wherever you go - best of luck.

Submitted by juice (not verified) on March 23, 2007 - 9:22am.

Thanks to all of you for your kind posts! Please don't get me wrong, I have a great deal of respect for those who are able to make it work here and perhaps some day we will return. Ironically, I did come up with a number of ways that I also could make it work here, but the alternatives right now are too attractive for me to pay that price.

On Ann Arbor, I recently read an article about that city that covered their attempts to become a 'creative class' town modeled after the popular book by a guy named....umm, Richard Florida or something like that. I'm going to visit a few places and I do plan to head to the Midwest as well and might just check the place out!

Submitted by kewp on March 23, 2007 - 11:33am.

"We have a massive influx of poor, uneducated immigrants combined with huge demographic changes the likes of which this city and country haven't seen in generations."

Our country was built by poor, uneducated immigrants. European at the time, probably some in your family tree. I know they are in mine!

In SoCal, they fill a valuable role by taking the jobs all the over-educated white folk won't do. Unless you really, really want to pick strawberries I can't see what complaint you have with them.

Regardless, enjoy your new life wherever you decide to settle. I'll suggest New Hampshire, you will be pretty safe from the Mexican Invasion there for at least a few decades!

Submitted by deadzone on March 23, 2007 - 11:36am.

I spend a couple summers in Ann Arbor many years ago when I was interning for Ford. Great city to be in the summer time, lots to do, and nearly the ideal size city in my opinion. Also a great place if you are a golfer, tons of public golf courses in Michigan. Unfortunately the winters are brutal, I don't think I could handle living there full time.

Submitted by PerryChase on March 23, 2007 - 11:49am.

I'm afraid that getting deeply involved in a church will cause you to build up even more resentment towards those you think are ruining your dreams of a happy life in San Diego.

From your other posts on immigration, Ireland and other matters it seems you are easily riled-up by what you perceive as wrongs. The truth is that there's no right or wrong.

I think that if you want to find happiness and satisfaction you'd realize that no one is ruining your life. The world is fluid and ever changing. It up to you to adapt to it. If new immigrants can thrive in California, so can you. If you want a 3000sf house in a top school district in California, perhaps you should work a little harder or simply move out. Nobody is to blame for that.

Submitted by deadzone on March 23, 2007 - 11:58am.

Our country may have been built by poor, uneducated immigrants but that is irrelevant to today's world. The population of the U.S. is large enough as it is, don't need millions more.

You can scream racism all you want but nobody wants a bunch of poor immigrant families moving into their neighborhood, bringing a part of Tijuana with them. It is really a class issue, not a racial issue anyway. It is just cooincidence that the lower socioeconomic class in this country is heavily weighted towards blacks and hispanics.

I hate the argument that we need so many immigrants because they do the work the Americans won't do. That just proves how far our country has fallen if that it truly the case.

In terms of agriculture, if we need to "import" workers to pick strawberries, then that is not an efficient business model to begin with. What is the benefit of a business to this country if it is only employing foreigners?? We should let those businesses fail. Everybody would be better off if we imported those products. How about we import more strawberries from Mexico??? We would be supporting essentially the same labor base anyway, and it would probably be cheaper!

Submitted by CardiffBaseball on March 23, 2007 - 12:46pm.

I remember a visit back to Ohio when the family had yet to move out here. One afternoon I got the oil changed, some scruffy white kids did it. Buzz to the car wash, white and black kids do my car. I motor over to Taco Bell, where there are black and white people waiting on me. Lastly I have some guys coming over to do some property beautification on my house to prep to sell and they were white folks.

My wife was born in Honduras and we always get along with hispanics quite easily, so this isn't a knock on them because they are just wanting work. Rather it's to slam the idiotic premise that "people just won't do those jobs. Hell my sister cleans an office building once a week for like $20. She has 3 kids at home, and stays with them during the day, and this $20 helps fund extra activities or whatever.

The problem with San Diego (err California) is the wealthy business owner doesn't want to pay for labor. I think people will work at Taco Bell if the wages represented some fraction of the cost of living. I am guessing the Taco Bell guy here in Encinitas makes a buck or so more than the guy in Ohio with the cost of living in Ohio being squat.

Submitted by jg on March 23, 2007 - 12:52pm.

kewp, in the old days, folks were screened for disease. Now, they cross unfettered, and read last week's article in the La La Times about Chagas disease (a South American disease) infecting the blood supply and killing folks. Read about leprosy in South Texas and tuberculosis in San Jose.

Nah, Mexico and South and Central America have inferior cultures, not bloodlines. That's why they are messes, generally.

There's nothing racist, here, just simple statement of fact that we have too many unassimilated immigrants. My mother came from Mexico and my paternal grandparents came from Italy, so I'm allowed to speak about recent immigrants.

Perry, are you daft, that there's no right and wrong? I'll go out on a limb: Wednesday, the terrorists who used two children to get past a checkpoint, then blew them up along with the car, that was wrong. Call me a church-going judgementalist/fundamentalist, I don't care.

Submitted by 4plexowner on March 23, 2007 - 12:57pm.

Our government is letting huge numbers of illegals into the country because they know Social Security and the other entitlement programs are doomed without an influx of new people

Our entitlement programs are ponzi schemes and we are running out of new suckers to come in at the bottom - these illegal immigrants provide the pool of suckers

Part of this plan is to grant amnesty to all the illegal immigrants so we can fully integrate them into the ongoing ponzi scheme - notice that all the 'immigration reform' being discussed includes some type of amnesty

I think it comes down to a choice: do we
1) accept that Social Security, Medicare and all the other entitlement programs have to be drastically pared down/eliminated, or do we
2) allow another 100-300 million people to immigrate into this country and accept the lower standard of living that will go along with that increased population?

It appears to me that the powers that be are choosing option '2'. I say this based on our wide-open southern borders and the move towards a North American Union.

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