Poll. Where does the 15 year avg rate bottom by 7/2021

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 19, 2020 - 10:22pm
2.3 plus
13% (1 vote)
2.1 to 2.3
38% (3 votes)
1.9 to 2.1
0% (0 votes)
1.7 to 1.9
13% (1 vote)
1.5 to 1.7
13% (1 vote)
1.3 to 1.5
13% (1 vote)
1.1 to 1.3
0% (0 votes)
Less than 1.1
13% (1 vote)
Total votes: 8
Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 20, 2020 - 8:07am.

When you look at the graph of avg US mortgage rates on mortgagenewsdaily.com its a fairly steep line straight down all of this year. Precipitously straight, like, where is the bottom straight.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/

this article on the nuts and bolts of how the MBS industry works and the institutional pressures keeping rates from dropping below certain levels at certain times makes me think short term, a large rate drop is not in the cards.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgag...

not sure if it means anything looking forward, but it sounds like it describes the reality of rate ranges in the current market, anyway. On the toehr hand, the way thigns are may not describe how things will be if things have to change.

however, that graph of mortgage rates this years is So straight down im afraid to lock in a refi with points.

on the other hand, nothing goes in a straight line forever. but who likes to catch a falling knife. until i looked at that graph, it was unclear to me just what a big falling knife it was though in 2020.

i'm thinking now, either pay off the mortgage and be done with it, or wait till the 15 gets in the 1.25 to 1.5 rate with points, if ever, and just go for a max cash out refi and try my luck arbitraging that.

Submitted by gzz on July 20, 2020 - 3:59pm.

The mortgage to treasury spread is higher than normal and will probably decrease in a month or two.

I think the record low rates are letting companies keep the spread high while staying plenty busy. As the refi wave slows down, the spread should go back to normal.

Submitted by gzz on July 23, 2020 - 3:06pm.

People are getting 0 point 15 years below 2.25 now.

10 year treasury rate is 0.577 now. Other than intraday March 8 when it hit 0.31 briefly, we’re basically tied with the all time low.

Submitted by ybitz on July 24, 2020 - 10:22am.

gzz wrote:
People are getting 0 point 15 years below 2.25 now.

10 year treasury rate is 0.577 now. Other than intraday March 8 when it hit 0.31 briefly, we’re basically tied with the all time low.

Which lender is offering 0 point 15 years below 2.25%? I need to get in on this refi action

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 24, 2020 - 10:49am.

i tracking a 15 year 2.125% cash out refi on 500k total for about 10k in fees. if it'll drop a half point to 1.625 at that price, i'll do it.