Poll. Total covid19 deaths, in USA, by dec 2021.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 30, 2020 - 1:02pm
65k to 75k
0% (0 votes)
75k to 85k
0% (0 votes)
85k to 125k
0% (0 votes)
125k to 195k
23% (5 votes)
195k to 500k
32% (7 votes)
500k to 1 million
23% (5 votes)
1 million to 2 million
9% (2 votes)
2 million to 5 million
0% (0 votes)
5 million to 10 million
9% (2 votes)
10 million to 20 million
0% (0 votes)
20 million to 50 million
0% (0 votes)
Greater than 50 million
5% (1 vote)
Total votes: 22
Submitted by an on August 9, 2021 - 2:17pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I kinda do. At least possibly, smart little hardworking virus adapts into something a bit too deadly and kills most of us. An actual plague.

I'd say 2.5 perc chance of occurring.


Considering people over 50 over the last year have a death rate of 0.5%, 577k death for a population of 110m, statistic and data is not on your side. But ok...

If you're under 50, you're ~1.3x as likely to die for opioid than COVID. The number is much worse as you lower the age. For people below 40, the number is closer to 2x.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 9, 2021 - 3:33pm.

Agreed for the current state of the virus. But I expect this virus to get much stronger.

This verse keeps coming to mind. I feel death is coming for us all. Scaredycat or realist?

.Full fathom five thy father lies;
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
Ding-dong.
Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell.

Submitted by phaster on August 9, 2021 - 4:08pm.

an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.

Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.


This is the current data for all the death in the US so far by age group. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191...

The groups affected most by COVID have the highest vaccination rate. So, unless you think COVID will evolve into something else or start killing people of different age groups, data would disagree with you.

Currently, people under 50, there were a total of 29,249 death. People over 50 are extremely well vaccinated.

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covi...

So, do you think somehow we'll see 100x increase from that death rate # in the next year? The current death rate for people under 50 is <0.02%. Do you expect death rate for that group to rise to 2% over the next year?

thankfully so far my guesstimate of 1-2 million is a few hundred thousand away (I hope continue to be way wrong at the end betting period)

BUT as with the 1918 virus which from what I gather mutated,... let's hope the SARS-CoV-2 virus will not continue to mutate into something more virulent/lethal than what is going around at the present moment (given the increasing global vaccine rate)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021...

Submitted by an on August 9, 2021 - 6:52pm.

Yes, we all will die some day. I'm willing to bet everything i have on that

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 9, 2021 - 6:56pm.

If one was kooky enough to believe in a G-d involved in human affairs, one could almost sense that arrogant humanity is tempting her to just fucking wipe us out in a clean blow and start fresh with Noah, some livestock and a dove2

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 9, 2021 - 7:15pm.

an wrote:
Yes, we all will die some day. I'm willing to bet everything i have on that

What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?

Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 9, 2021 - 7:17pm.

“What is quite unlooked for is more crushing in its effect, and unexpectedness adds to the weight of a disaster. This is a reason for ensuring that nothing ever takes us by surprise. We should project our thoughts ahead of us at every turn and have in mind every possible eventuality instead of only the usual course of events…

Rehearse them in your mind: exile, torture, war, shipwreck. All the terms of our human lot should be before our eyes.”

— Seneca

The great Booker T. Washington rose from humble origins in Hale’s Ford, Virginia to a position of immense responsibility. He ran a school with some 1,500 students, he employed hundreds of people, he advised politicians and activists and traveled across the country giving speeches. How did he manage it all? And with such equanimity and strength? He had a little exercise:

“When I begin my work in the morning, I expect to have a successful and pleasant day of it, but at the same time I prepare myself to hear that one of our school buildings is on fire, or has burned, or that some disagreeable accident had occurred, or that someone has abused me in a public address or a printed article, for something that I have done or omitted to do, or or something that he had heard that I had said—probably something I had never thought of saying.”

The origins of this exercise go back some two thousand years. It’s the Stoic premeditatio malorum—the premeditation of the evils and troubles that might lie ahead. It’s the exercise of imagining things that could go wrong or be taken away from us. It helps us prepare for life’s inevitable setbacks. We don’t always get what is rightfully ours, even if we’ve earned it. Not everything is as clean and straightforward as we think they may be. Psychologically, we must prepare ourselves for this to happen.

As Seneca would say, the unexpected blows of fortune fall heaviest and most painfully, which is why the wise man thinks about them in advance. It’s also impossible to prepare for or prevent something you’re unaware of. The Stoic doesn’t see this act of negative visualization as pessimistic, but simply a feature of their self-confident optimism: I’m ready to face anything that happens and I’m also ready to do the work necessary now to ensure I don’t waste energy on problems that could have been solved in advance.

So if you want to have a great day today, think about all the ways it might go sideways. Be prepared for that. Think about how you’d handle it, all the things you would need to do in response. Practice being calm in the face of how overwhelming it might seem. Remember that people will be depending on you and that’s why you need to respond right. Consider what steps you can take now in anticipation.

Expect to have a successful and pleasant day, of course, just be ready in case it isn’t.

From THE DAILY STOIC

Submitted by an on August 9, 2021 - 8:57pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
an wrote:
Yes, we all will die some day. I'm willing to bet everything i have on that

What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?

Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?


Same odds as you giving me on everyone will die.

Yes, it would be a surprise to me.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 4, 2022 - 2:53pm.

Looks like 850,000 or thereabouts was the winning number for our first year and a 9 months.

Submitted by svelte on January 13, 2022 - 9:49am.

Probably time to make sure your cabinets are full. Not hoarder full, but full.

There are sooo many people catching Omicron that it will have to affect the distribution chain to the grocery stores here shortly.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2022 - 10:58am.

Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results

Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok

I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far

Submitted by svelte on January 13, 2022 - 11:58am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results

Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok

I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far

I just went shopping this AM spent $500. Was able to find most things but there were more outages than usual. Examples.
Cream cheese - the normal spreadable Philly cream cheese has been out (in plain flavor) for over a month now
Paper plates - shelf picked clean
Chicken - limited selection, only 2 of the boneless skinless breasts left and I grabbed them both
Rice - Near East boxed rice has been out for months, except on the rare times I find a few boxes
Cereal - those shelves were very sad! Only a few sparse boxes!
Other shelves were noticeably emptier than usual including olive oil, hummus, tuna, turkey sausage

Things aren't at the "sound the alarm" stage yet but shelves were noticeably thinner than past weeks. Maybe we won't go back to shortages, but my ears perked up when I saw things today. Just sayin.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2022 - 4:40pm.

Interesting. Seems far more limited than here. Barely noticeable around me so far