Should be fun to look back Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.
Assuming we dont die.
My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let’s go for herd imnunity. I’ll be happy to be wrong.
May be some trouble agreeing on accounting method.
But we can argue that later[/quote]
seems by the answers provided people here are optimistic this clusterfuck isn’t going to be all that bad in the grand scheme of things,… as for me I’m not so sure
for insight, let’s consider the population of the USA > 300 million,… and reading medical reports seems those most at risk of infection are those elderly and/or w/ pre-existing medical conditions like diabetes/hypertension/etc.
so if we’re lucky a win for december 2021 would be considered if less than one percent of the USA population die
WRT the accounting, here I am also accounting for knock on effects such as people who can’t take the pressure and take their own life because sad fact of the matter is the covid-19 virus isn’t going away anytime soon, so pressure will be put on supply chains as well as pocketbooks
[quote] Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide
A top emergency room doctor at a Manhattan hospital that treated many coronavirus patients died by suicide on Sunday, her father and the police said.
Dr. Lorna M. Breen, the medical director of the emergency department at NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital, died in Charlottesville, Va., where she was staying with family, her father said in an interview.
Tyler Hawn, a spokesman for the Charlottesville Police Department, said in an email that officers on Sunday responded to a call seeking medical assistance.
“The victim was taken to U.V.A. Hospital for treatment, but later succumbed to self-inflicted injuries,” Mr. Hawn said.
[quote] Coronavirus gets a promising drug. MAGA world isn’t buying it.
Over three weeks ago, hydroxychloroquine was all the rage in MAGA world, despite flawed and scattered evidence about whether the drug could help cure coronavirus. Now there is another drug, remdesivir, with positive early scientific data.
Much of MAGA world wants little to do with it.
At first, it may seem like a head-scratching response. President Donald Trump’s base has been quick to trumpet any potential solutions to the coronavirus pandemic — especially those Trump himself promotes — regardless of the red flags from medical experts. But with remdesivir, it’s the Trump-boosting pundits who are raising the red flags, even as the president expresses optimism.
Indeed, the same segment of the right that claimed scientists and the media were deliberately downplaying hydroxychloroquine in order to hurt Trump’s standing are now the ones downplaying remdesivir. On Fox News, Laura Ingraham suggested that remdesivir, as a newer drug being produced by the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, could be unsafe and expensive. Those who initially helped raise the profile of hydroxychloroquine raised doubts about the remdesivir studies.
The unexpected reaction appears to stem from the differences in how the two drugs came into the public spotlight. Hydroxychloroquine bubbled up through the MAGA grassroots — little-known investors promoted it online, got on Fox News and suddenly the president was talking about it from the White House. Remdesivir’s progress came through a government-funded trial that had the blessing of Dr. Anthony Fauci,…
[quote] The U.S. wants Mexico to keep its defense and health-care factories open. Mexican workers are getting sick and dying.
MEXICO CITY — For years, the United States outfitted its armed forces and hospitals with products made partially in Mexican factories, trusting that the world’s busiest cross-border supply chain could withstand any crisis.
Then came the novel coronavirus, and a new question: Would Mexico keep its workers on the line to continue producing goods considered “essential” to the United States?
[quote] COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?
…we may get into a cycle of periodic social distancing measures until it is possible to develop and mass-produce a vaccine, which experts say will take 12-18 months, or we can find effective ways to treat COVID-19.
In my heart, I feel like In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.
phaster
May 2, 2020 @
12:03 PM
^^^
don’t think the USA needs ^^^
don’t think the USA needs 10 million dead,… point has been made already?!
[quote] QUESTION: If an American president loses more Americans over the course of six weeks than died in the entirety of the Vietnam war does he deserve to be reelected?
TRUMP: So, yeah, we have lost a lot of people but if you look at what original projections were 2.2 million we are probably heading to 60,000, 70,000–it’s far too many. One person is too many for this and I think we made a lot of really good decisions. The big decision was closing the border or doing the band people coming in from China obviously other than American citizens which had to come in, can’t say you can’t come in, you can’t come back to your country. I think we have made a lot of good decisions. I think that Mike Pence and the task force have done a fantastic job. I think that everybody working on the ventilators you see what we have done there, have done unbelievable. The press doesn’t talk about ventilators anymore. They just don’t want to talk about them and that’s okay but they reason they don’t want to talk–that was the subject that nobody would get off of. They don’t want to talk about them.
We are in the same position on testing. We are lapping the world on testing and the world is coming to us as I said they are coming to us saying what are you doing, how do you do it and we are helping them. So, no, I think we have done a great job and one person I will say this, one person is too many. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Thank you.
10 million dead min. To 10 million dead min. To reevaluate need for beach day
FlyerInHi
May 2, 2020 @
4:57 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:In my [quote=scaredyclassic]In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.[/quote]
Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.
scaredyclassic
May 3, 2020 @
8:01 AM
You dont have to be a You dont have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Changes are coming
scaredyclassic
May 3, 2020 @
8:33 AM
FlyerInHi [quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic]In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.[/quote]
Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.[/quote]
Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.
People are cheap, money is dear
phaster
May 3, 2020 @
4:58 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:
Once [quote=scaredyclassic]
Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.
[/quote]
sadly global warming effects are already here,… ya just have to know what to look for
to try and understand why some don’t buy into well studied hard science issues like climate change, have been looking for answers else where,… specifically psychology looking at competence and discipline (or rather the lack thereof)
[quote] …The Marshmallow Test is a measure of delay of gratification. The nature of the experiment is to give children a choice between a smaller reward now and a larger reward later. So in the classic paradigm, children would be offered something like one marshmallow now, or if they wait until the experimenter comes back, they could have two marshmallows.
as I see things the idea of the marshmallow test, also explains why no talent (except for photo opts) politicians are running things into the ground (and can’t seem to see the big long term picture),… IOW politicians only look at getting themselves elected to office and pretty much lack the mental ability to do and understand hard science
just my own educated guess but this summer in the northern hemisphere is going to be memorable for a couple of reasons,… first w/ the covid-19 virus around, there is still going to be lots of social distancing, which means less travel, which in turn means less emissions AND less emissions would mean more clear skies
bottom line being, w/ clear skies its going to be a sweltering hot summer and places like Chicago AND NYC are most likely going to experience a heat wave which is going to kill lots of poor people
then there is the fact that trump lowered emission standards,…
which means going forward (in the years ahead) the most likely mega drought in the SW USA is going to be a bit more extreme that it other wise would be
Nytimes says 3000 deaths per Nytimes says 3000 deaths per day by june 1.
I think we are going to blow past 200k dead before school starts up again.
Jeeeeez.
I’m gonna go bang out some pages. This needs to be done before I can die peacefully.
scaredyclassic
May 4, 2020 @
5:31 PM
wait i want to change my wait i want to change my estimate. 5.7 million dead.
FlyerInHi
May 5, 2020 @
2:05 AM
Let’s open the economy and Let’s open the economy and find out.
But don’t we have super duper computers and sophisticated models and contingency plans? The president should explain costs and benefits of policies, or in other words, death panels. I’m willing to accept the deaths if I have an estimation of what they will be.
phaster
May 5, 2020 @
10:04 AM
just a wild guess but in SD just a wild guess but in SD which is so close to TJ I would not be too surprised to see the number of dead not trend downward anytime soon,…
[quote] Baja Border an ‘Achilles Heel’ for COVID-19 Control — Hospital chiefs plead with HHS to start medical checks for thousands who cross from Tijuana daily
…Chief executives of two major California healthcare systems sent a sent a letter late Tuesday to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. They worry their systems will be overrun, not only from local San Diego cases, but from people who traverse the border unknowingly bringing the virus with them.
Border an ‘Achilles Heel’
“What I’d like to see are health checks, just like we would administer at an airport if we had an airplane coming in,” Chris Van Gorder, president and CEO of Scripps Health, told MedPage Today in an interview. One of Scripps’ five hospitals in Chula Vista, just 8 miles from the Tijuana border, is at risk of being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. The border, he said, represents a regional “Achilles heel” that could thwart efforts to prevent viral spread.
…Juan Tovar, MD, an emergency medicine physician and Scripps’ physician operations executive in Chula Vista, said many of these patients are very sick and near death when they come through the door.
“At the beginning, we saw a lot of people who just wanted to be tested. They ranged from minimal to no symptoms to the direly ill. Now we’re treating people who are coming in much sicker, with advanced symptoms and some of them are getting intubated,” or going on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, Tovar said.
“There are people who come in so sick, they are about to stop breathing,” he said. “This is a tough disease, (and) a large percentage of the people who get intubated do not get extubated.”
Though it’s widely believed that COVID-19 is most acute in the aged, at Scripps Chula Vista, more common is the patient 35 to 60 years old. The common link: comorbidities, such as congestive heart failure, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension, conditions often more common in Hispanic communities.
scaredyclassic wrote:Should [quote=scaredyclassic]Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.
Assuming we dont die.
My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let’s go for herd imnunity. I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Vote today![/quote]
Sounds about right to me.
Trump is appointing the death panels as we speak.
livinincali
May 6, 2020 @
12:55 PM
Long story short if Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you’re house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there’s segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they’ve lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.
svelte
May 6, 2020 @
1:00 PM
livinincali wrote:
Depends on [quote=livinincali]
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
[/quote]
I tend to agree the number of deaths is getting very political and I’m not sure there is a very good way of determining anyway.
I guess you could say the same sort of thing for any death, especially in older folks with multiple conditions. I know when my Dad died they could treat one of his conditions, but it would make the others worse…they could treat another condition, but the same story. So what did he really die from?
All in your point of view.
scaredyclassic
May 6, 2020 @
2:28 PM
livinincali wrote:Long story [quote=livinincali]Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you’re house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there’s segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they’ve lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.[/quote]
long story short? i think yours is a little too short, or maybe makes some assumptions and inferential leaps unsupported by reality.
we do know for instance historically what the average number of deaths is for a given area month by month.
SO lets say in your town over the last 5 years there have been an average of 150 deaths a month.
But say this november, there are 1500 deaths in one month.
you will know that something–not necessarily the CV–but something, is doing some extra killing; it’s not just an accounting error. I mean, there will still be some accounting disputes on some, and if we are having a contest to get the number on the nose, eyah it’ll matter, but we can definitely tell if there’s extra deaths.
what might be the causes?
could be the govt secret forces.
could be chinese drones.
5g networks.
could be people are getting their blood pressure so high due to gov. action that they’re stroking out.
could be they’re starving to death. or maybe it’s just G-d doing his thing. or…
could be coronavirus.
i suppose the gov could be lying about whos dead and whos not.
but it’s going to be difficult to get the docs and coroners on board.
reminds me of this monty python sketch; is this or is this not a dead parrot?
there’s always seemingly unlimited cash to prop up big businesses and banks, but no cash to support actual citizenry.
phaster
May 6, 2020 @
2:42 PM
^^^
Quote:
What New April ^^^
[quote] What New April Numbers Reveal About the Pandemic’s San Diego Impact
It’s too early to know how the coronavirus ranks among all causes of death in the county since it takes time for that data to be compiled. But one thing is clear: Even though our death rate is lower than some other major California counties, more people died of COVID-19 here last month than they typically do of almost all other causes.
According to San Diego County statistics, at least 122 people died of coronavirus in April in the county. By comparison, here are the five leading causes of death, on average, in the county for the month of April in the years 2014-2018, according to federal statistics:
These numbers suggest that coronavirus will end up being among the top five causes of death in the county for the month of April 2020, killing more people than other leading causes of death such as diabetes, suicide, respiratory diseases like emphysema, high blood pressure and Parkinson’s disease. It may even rank third behind the top killers by far – heart disease and cancer.
[quote] Hotter Temperatures Could Cause Up To 3 Billion People To Migrate
A study published on May 4th by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that over the next 50 years, up to 3.5 billion people will find their existing home intolerably hot, sending them in search of cooler climes. The consequences for the human community could be severe, especially at a time when fear and loathing of immigrants is the dominant cultural norm in many countries.
[quote] Disease evolution: how new illnesses emerge when we change how we live
Humans have been “acquiring” infectious diseases from animals (zoonotic diseases) since we first started hunting wild game on the African savannahs. Indeed, nearly 60% of bugs that infect humans originated in animals.
…Why did these diseases jump species?
The common theme in the spillover of each of these viruses is food; they are a consequence of the human need for protein.
Once the viruses make the species jump, their severity is a major factor in what happens next. It is easier for a mild disease such as Zika to spread unnoticed in a population because it is unlikely to lead a person to seek medical attention.
…Preventing disease outbreaks
The world will not prevent the next global pandemic using “business as usual” thinking. We need to acknowledge we live in a rapidly converging world where solutions cross all sectors of society.
I wish the president would I wish the president would give us a death estimate a with a cost benefit analysis
Doesn’t the government have super duper computers that will spit out that info lickety-split?
President Trump and his advisers shifted from hour-by-hour crisis management to what they characterize as a long-term strategy aimed at reviving the decimated economy and preparing for additional outbreaks this fall.
But in doing so, the administration is effectively bowing to — and asking Americans to accept — a devastating proposition: that a steady, daily accumulation of lonely deaths is the grim cost of reopening the nation.
your request would require an impossible amount of work I think
treehugger
February 11, 2021 @
6:53 AM
Interesting! I had previously Interesting! I had previously found a table of flu deaths per year; had not considered simply a straight deaths per year, then applying all the “excess” deaths to COVID…..a starting point for a hypothesis.
scaredyclassic
February 11, 2021 @
8:33 AM
Im not sure how definitive Im not sure how definitive that proof is. But with several hospitalized family members, some young, im inclined to believe its deadlyish.
I think now most people feel like, well, old people die, thats what old people do, whos to say covid killed them, theyre so old….
Fetus = incalculable value of human life
Elderly= see ya on the other side, gramps!
spdrun
February 11, 2021 @
11:53 AM
Newborn infant: you’re out, Newborn infant: you’re out, you’re on your own now.
scaredyclassic
February 11, 2021 @
2:19 PM
spdrun wrote:Newborn infant: [quote=spdrun]Newborn infant: you’re out, you’re on your own now.[/quote]
newborns a little young, but i think we are babying kids too much. they can pretty much take care of themselves and hit the road at 12 or so. I knew a guy once who left home at 12 in the late 30s, turned out very successful. why is now different?
anyone over 55, we are too old, should just all be DNR.
spdrun
February 11, 2021 @
4:39 PM
Nah, that’s not what I mean Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.
scaredyclassic
February 12, 2021 @
8:57 AM
spdrun wrote:Nah, that’s not [quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.[/quote]
Ah. True. I can understand the anti abortion pro “life” anti real life reflex though. Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing.
Fetuses, pure potential, clean pristine and unmarked by this wicked world.
ucodegen
February 13, 2021 @
10:52 AM
spdrun wrote:Nah, that’s not [quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
The true first victim are the children. Solving that by taking money from the public and other people who may also need that also victimizes the public good. The problem is that a possible solution to a parent who does not wish/want to be responsible for their own offspring is problematic.
Having a child is not something that is without choice. Many people wait until they can afford to feed the child before having one. Others seem to take the point of ‘here – you take care of it.. and give me some money so that I could be a good parent’.
Where is the line between charity needed in emergencies vs people exploiting charitable people.
In the situation shown in that video, it is highly likely that her children will repeat her behavior because they see it works and requires minimal effort.
[quote=scaredyclassic]Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing[/quote] I wouldn’t say that ‘all’ people fit this category. There are others that are so far beyond this, that the level they obtain is beyond comprehension: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLSNPkf8RCU
spdrun
February 13, 2021 @
12:12 PM
Solving that by taking money
Solving that by taking money from the public and other people who may also need that also victimizes the public good.
As long as our military gets $500 billion a year to go on their murder sprees in such lovely places as Afghanistan and Iraq, we have enough money to help Americans without cutting services to other Americans. Just bring our troops home unilaterally and don’t spend another fucking dime on wars abroad. Same goes for enforcement of victimless crimes. As long as there are law enfarcement (misspelling deliberate) paid to enforce things like prostitution between consenting adults, drug use, drinking from ages 18 to 21, and we spend money putting those cases through our “injustice” system and sometimes imprisoning people for them, we have enough money for needy Americans.
The problem are this country’s priorities … wars, cops, and prisons over social services.
scaredyclassic
February 14, 2021 @
11:30 AM
Anyway, how does one know an Anyway, how does one know an abortion caused a fetuses death? Might have spontaneously aborted. Might have died in choldbirth due to lung issues. Could be brain dead in there. Sudden infant death syndrome.
Of every 100,000 abortions, probably 99,976 wouldve died anyway.
scaredyclassic
February 14, 2021 @
7:19 PM
ucodegen wrote:spdrun [quote=ucodegen][quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
The true first victim are the children. Solving that by taking money from the public and other people who may also need that also victimizes the public good. The problem is that a possible solution to a parent who does not wish/want to be responsible for their own offspring is problematic.
Having a child is not something that is without choice. Many people wait until they can afford to feed the child before having one. Others seem to take the point of ‘here – you take care of it.. and give me some money so that I could be a good parent’.
Where is the line between charity needed in emergencies vs people exploiting charitable people.
In the situation shown in that video, it is highly likely that her children will repeat her behavior because they see it works and requires minimal effort.
[quote=scaredyclassic]Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing[/quote] I wouldn’t say that ‘all’ people fit this category. There are others that are so far beyond this, that the level they obtain is beyond comprehension: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLSNPkf8RCU%5B/quote%5D
If people waited until they were truly secure enough to have kids, no one would have kids. For 99% of us, we are varying degrees of risk.
scaredyclassic
August 8, 2021 @
10:09 PM
I’m thinking we gonna hit one I’m thinking we gonna hit one million cause Americans are SO FUCKING DUMB.
Or paranoid.
Or something. Just 380k to go. Delta gonna push us over.
But what if it really ramps up. Some really crazy mutation. 100 million dead by 2022.
America wants death, we love it
Burn this mother down.
That’s all I hear about now. That’s all I hear. Turn on television—’Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ A plane goes down. 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it,” Trump told his supporters at a campaign rally in Lumberton, North Carolina, on October 24th. “Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ By the way, on November 4, you won’t hear about it anymore,”
I gotta admit, I’d be happy to see 20 million willfully unvaccinated die … Me and trump, we’d be both laughing
I’m masking up and not going out to eat anymore
an
August 8, 2021 @
10:51 PM
Good Good
Coronita
August 9, 2021 @
6:01 AM
Well Florida is sort of Well Florida is sort of turning into a petridish.
I dont think remote work is going away anytime soon.
You have some people refusing to vaccinate who refuse to wear a mask if they go to work because they feel they would be discriminated against if there is a “mask up if not vaccinated rule” … so the companies are going to not make it mandatory… And meanwhile you have people vaccinated who dont want to hang around those that arent, so they dont want to go to work… And you cant separate vaxxers from non vaxxers abd out them into separate rooms, because thats perceived as discriminatory work policies. lol… im waiting for a variant that mutates into something that vaccines dont work…. its coming… school opening in 1 week. whoohoo. *cough* *cough*… i swear its just allergies…
an
August 9, 2021 @
11:17 AM
Considering that we’re not Considering that we’re not isolated from the rest of the world and their vaccination rate is horrific, mutation will be more likely to happen there than here. They will then bring the mutation into this country. So, there’s almost no way to prevent mutation unless we shut down the entire world like China/Vietnam does and lock you in your house.
gzz
August 9, 2021 @
10:24 AM
Excess deaths over trend Excess deaths over trend looks like it might top out around 1.1 mil. Congrats to the 1 person who voted that range.
an
August 9, 2021 @
11:20 AM
gzz wrote:Excess deaths over [quote=gzz]Excess deaths over trend looks like it might top out around 1.1 mil. Congrats to the 1 person who voted that range.[/quote]
3.5 months to go. The rate of change over the last 3.5 months will say we won’t be anywhere near 1m. So, we’ll have to wait and see. It won’t be long now.
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
11:51 AM
Probably should do a new poll Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.
an
August 9, 2021 @
1:26 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:Probably [quote=scaredyclassic]Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.[/quote]
This is the current data for all the death in the US so far by age group. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
The groups affected most by COVID have the highest vaccination rate. So, unless you think COVID will evolve into something else or start killing people of different age groups, data would disagree with you.
So, do you think somehow we’ll see 100x increase from that death rate # in the next year? The current death rate for people under 50 is <0.02%. Do you expect death rate for that group to rise to 2% over the next year?
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
1:27 PM
I kinda do. At least I kinda do. At least possibly, smart little hardworking virus adapts into something a bit too deadly and kills most of us. An actual plague.
I’d say 2.5 perc chance of occurring.
an
August 9, 2021 @
2:17 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:I kinda [quote=scaredyclassic]I kinda do. At least possibly, smart little hardworking virus adapts into something a bit too deadly and kills most of us. An actual plague.
I’d say 2.5 perc chance of occurring.[/quote]
Considering people over 50 over the last year have a death rate of 0.5%, 577k death for a population of 110m, statistic and data is not on your side. But ok…
If you’re under 50, you’re ~1.3x as likely to die for opioid than COVID. The number is much worse as you lower the age. For people below 40, the number is closer to 2x.
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
3:33 PM
Agreed for the current state Agreed for the current state of the virus. But I expect this virus to get much stronger.
This verse keeps coming to mind. I feel death is coming for us all. Scaredycat or realist?
.Full fathom five thy father lies;
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
Ding-dong.
Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell.
an
August 9, 2021 @
6:52 PM
Yes, we all will die some Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
6:56 PM
If one was kooky enough to If one was kooky enough to believe in a G-d involved in human affairs, one could almost sense that arrogant humanity is tempting her to just fucking wipe us out in a clean blow and start fresh with Noah, some livestock and a dove2
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
7:15 PM
an wrote:Yes, we all will die [quote=an]Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that[/quote]
What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?
Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?
scaredyclassic
August 9, 2021 @
7:17 PM
“What is quite unlooked for “What is quite unlooked for is more crushing in its effect, and unexpectedness adds to the weight of a disaster. This is a reason for ensuring that nothing ever takes us by surprise. We should project our thoughts ahead of us at every turn and have in mind every possible eventuality instead of only the usual course of events…
Rehearse them in your mind: exile, torture, war, shipwreck. All the terms of our human lot should be before our eyes.”
— Seneca
The great Booker T. Washington rose from humble origins in Hale’s Ford, Virginia to a position of immense responsibility. He ran a school with some 1,500 students, he employed hundreds of people, he advised politicians and activists and traveled across the country giving speeches. How did he manage it all? And with such equanimity and strength? He had a little exercise:
“When I begin my work in the morning, I expect to have a successful and pleasant day of it, but at the same time I prepare myself to hear that one of our school buildings is on fire, or has burned, or that some disagreeable accident had occurred, or that someone has abused me in a public address or a printed article, for something that I have done or omitted to do, or or something that he had heard that I had said—probably something I had never thought of saying.”
The origins of this exercise go back some two thousand years. It’s the Stoic premeditatio malorum—the premeditation of the evils and troubles that might lie ahead. It’s the exercise of imagining things that could go wrong or be taken away from us. It helps us prepare for life’s inevitable setbacks. We don’t always get what is rightfully ours, even if we’ve earned it. Not everything is as clean and straightforward as we think they may be. Psychologically, we must prepare ourselves for this to happen.
As Seneca would say, the unexpected blows of fortune fall heaviest and most painfully, which is why the wise man thinks about them in advance. It’s also impossible to prepare for or prevent something you’re unaware of. The Stoic doesn’t see this act of negative visualization as pessimistic, but simply a feature of their self-confident optimism: I’m ready to face anything that happens and I’m also ready to do the work necessary now to ensure I don’t waste energy on problems that could have been solved in advance.
So if you want to have a great day today, think about all the ways it might go sideways. Be prepared for that. Think about how you’d handle it, all the things you would need to do in response. Practice being calm in the face of how overwhelming it might seem. Remember that people will be depending on you and that’s why you need to respond right. Consider what steps you can take now in anticipation.
Expect to have a successful and pleasant day, of course, just be ready in case it isn’t.
From THE DAILY STOIC
an
August 9, 2021 @
8:57 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:an [quote=scaredyclassic][quote=an]Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that[/quote]
What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?
Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?[/quote]
Same odds as you giving me on everyone will die.
Yes, it would be a surprise to me.
phaster
August 9, 2021 @
4:08 PM
an wrote:scaredyclassic [quote=an][quote=scaredyclassic]Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.[/quote]
This is the current data for all the death in the US so far by age group. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
The groups affected most by COVID have the highest vaccination rate. So, unless you think COVID will evolve into something else or start killing people of different age groups, data would disagree with you.
Currently, people under 50, there were a total of 29,249 death. People over 50 are extremely well vaccinated.
So, do you think somehow we’ll see 100x increase from that death rate # in the next year? The current death rate for people under 50 is <0.02%. Do you expect death rate for that group to rise to 2% over the next year?[/quote]
thankfully so far my guesstimate of 1-2 million is a few hundred thousand away (I hope continue to be way wrong at the end betting period)
BUT as with the 1918 virus which from what I gather mutated,... let's hope the SARS-CoV-2 virus will not continue to mutate into something more virulent/lethal than what is going around at the present moment (given the increasing global vaccine rate)
Looks like 850,000 or Looks like 850,000 or thereabouts was the winning number for our first year and a 9 months.
svelte
January 13, 2022 @
8:49 AM
Probably time to make sure Probably time to make sure your cabinets are full. Not hoarder full, but full.
There are sooo many people catching Omicron that it will have to affect the distribution chain to the grocery stores here shortly.
sdrealtor
January 13, 2022 @
9:58 AM
Had an interesting Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results
Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok
I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far
svelte
January 13, 2022 @
10:58 AM
sdrealtor wrote:Had an [quote=sdrealtor]Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results
Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok
I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far[/quote]
I just went shopping this AM spent $500. Was able to find most things but there were more outages than usual. Examples.
Cream cheese – the normal spreadable Philly cream cheese has been out (in plain flavor) for over a month now
Paper plates – shelf picked clean
Chicken – limited selection, only 2 of the boneless skinless breasts left and I grabbed them both
Rice – Near East boxed rice has been out for months, except on the rare times I find a few boxes
Cereal – those shelves were very sad! Only a few sparse boxes!
Other shelves were noticeably emptier than usual including olive oil, hummus, tuna, turkey sausage
Things aren’t at the “sound the alarm” stage yet but shelves were noticeably thinner than past weeks. Maybe we won’t go back to shortages, but my ears perked up when I saw things today. Just sayin.
sdrealtor
January 13, 2022 @
3:40 PM
Interesting. Seems far more Interesting. Seems far more limited than here. Barely noticeable around me so far
April 30, 2020 @ 1:15 PM
Should be fun to look back
Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.
Assuming we dont die.
My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let’s go for herd imnunity. I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Vote today!
April 30, 2020 @ 1:24 PM
https://www.econlib.org/my-be
https://www.econlib.org/my-bet-on-covid-19-and-why-i-might-lose/
Just last month, 100k sounded high!
Could be a fun office pool.
May 1, 2020 @ 8:20 AM
https://www.theatlantic.com/p
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/how-many-americans-will-die-coronavirus/609175/
May be some trouble agreeing on accounting method.
But we can argue that later
May 2, 2020 @ 11:34 AM
scaredyclassic
[quote=scaredyclassic]
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/how-many-americans-will-die-coronavirus/609175/
May be some trouble agreeing on accounting method.
But we can argue that later[/quote]
seems by the answers provided people here are optimistic this clusterfuck isn’t going to be all that bad in the grand scheme of things,… as for me I’m not so sure
for insight, let’s consider the population of the USA > 300 million,… and reading medical reports seems those most at risk of infection are those elderly and/or w/ pre-existing medical conditions like diabetes/hypertension/etc.
so if we’re lucky a win for december 2021 would be considered if less than one percent of the USA population die
WRT the accounting, here I am also accounting for knock on effects such as people who can’t take the pressure and take their own life because sad fact of the matter is the covid-19 virus isn’t going away anytime soon, so pressure will be put on supply chains as well as pocketbooks
[quote]
Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide
A top emergency room doctor at a Manhattan hospital that treated many coronavirus patients died by suicide on Sunday, her father and the police said.
Dr. Lorna M. Breen, the medical director of the emergency department at NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital, died in Charlottesville, Va., where she was staying with family, her father said in an interview.
Tyler Hawn, a spokesman for the Charlottesville Police Department, said in an email that officers on Sunday responded to a call seeking medical assistance.
“The victim was taken to U.V.A. Hospital for treatment, but later succumbed to self-inflicted injuries,” Mr. Hawn said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/nyregion/new-york-city-doctor-suicide-coronavirus.html
[/quote]
[quote]
Coronavirus gets a promising drug. MAGA world isn’t buying it.
Over three weeks ago, hydroxychloroquine was all the rage in MAGA world, despite flawed and scattered evidence about whether the drug could help cure coronavirus. Now there is another drug, remdesivir, with positive early scientific data.
Much of MAGA world wants little to do with it.
At first, it may seem like a head-scratching response. President Donald Trump’s base has been quick to trumpet any potential solutions to the coronavirus pandemic — especially those Trump himself promotes — regardless of the red flags from medical experts. But with remdesivir, it’s the Trump-boosting pundits who are raising the red flags, even as the president expresses optimism.
Indeed, the same segment of the right that claimed scientists and the media were deliberately downplaying hydroxychloroquine in order to hurt Trump’s standing are now the ones downplaying remdesivir. On Fox News, Laura Ingraham suggested that remdesivir, as a newer drug being produced by the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, could be unsafe and expensive. Those who initially helped raise the profile of hydroxychloroquine raised doubts about the remdesivir studies.
The unexpected reaction appears to stem from the differences in how the two drugs came into the public spotlight. Hydroxychloroquine bubbled up through the MAGA grassroots — little-known investors promoted it online, got on Fox News and suddenly the president was talking about it from the White House. Remdesivir’s progress came through a government-funded trial that had the blessing of Dr. Anthony Fauci,…
http://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/02/donald-trump-coronavirus-remdesivir-229765
[/quote]
[quote]
The U.S. wants Mexico to keep its defense and health-care factories open. Mexican workers are getting sick and dying.
MEXICO CITY — For years, the United States outfitted its armed forces and hospitals with products made partially in Mexican factories, trusting that the world’s busiest cross-border supply chain could withstand any crisis.
Then came the novel coronavirus, and a new question: Would Mexico keep its workers on the line to continue producing goods considered “essential” to the United States?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-us-wants-mexico-to-keep-its-defense-and-health-care-factories-open-mexican-workers-are-getting-sick-and-dying/2020/04/30/14b18d04-85e1-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html
[/quote]
[quote]
31% Can’t Pay the Rent: ‘It’s Only Going to Get Worse’
As the economic shutdown pares tenants’ incomes, April payments have been reduced, deferred or withheld. Some landlords see their property at risk.
http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/economy/coronavirus-rent.html
[/quote]
[quote]
COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?
…we may get into a cycle of periodic social distancing measures until it is possible to develop and mass-produce a vaccine, which experts say will take 12-18 months, or we can find effective ways to treat COVID-19.
https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/23446/
[/quote]
May 2, 2020 @ 11:46 AM
In my heart, I feel like
In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.
May 2, 2020 @ 12:03 PM
^^^
don’t think the USA needs
^^^
don’t think the USA needs 10 million dead,… point has been made already?!
[quote]
QUESTION: If an American president loses more Americans over the course of six weeks than died in the entirety of the Vietnam war does he deserve to be reelected?
TRUMP: So, yeah, we have lost a lot of people but if you look at what original projections were 2.2 million we are probably heading to 60,000, 70,000–it’s far too many. One person is too many for this and I think we made a lot of really good decisions. The big decision was closing the border or doing the band people coming in from China obviously other than American citizens which had to come in, can’t say you can’t come in, you can’t come back to your country. I think we have made a lot of good decisions. I think that Mike Pence and the task force have done a fantastic job. I think that everybody working on the ventilators you see what we have done there, have done unbelievable. The press doesn’t talk about ventilators anymore. They just don’t want to talk about them and that’s okay but they reason they don’t want to talk–that was the subject that nobody would get off of. They don’t want to talk about them.
We are in the same position on testing. We are lapping the world on testing and the world is coming to us as I said they are coming to us saying what are you doing, how do you do it and we are helping them. So, no, I think we have done a great job and one person I will say this, one person is too many. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Thank you.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/27/reporter_to_trump_if_a_president_loses_more_americans_to_coronavirus_than_vietnam_do_they_deserve_to_be_reelected.html
[/quote]
…what needs to be acknowledged is the problem(s) w/ the environment
http://www.TinyURL.com/EarthDayTeachIn
https://www.piggington.com/climate_change_one_biggest_crises_facing_humanity?page=1#comment-288484
May 2, 2020 @ 3:13 PM
10 million dead min. To
10 million dead min. To reevaluate need for beach day
May 2, 2020 @ 4:57 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:In my
[quote=scaredyclassic]In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.[/quote]
Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.
May 3, 2020 @ 8:01 AM
You dont have to be a
You dont have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Changes are coming
May 3, 2020 @ 8:33 AM
FlyerInHi
[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic]In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it’s cold black heart.[/quote]
Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.[/quote]
Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.
People are cheap, money is dear
May 3, 2020 @ 4:58 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:
Once
[quote=scaredyclassic]
Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.
[/quote]
sadly global warming effects are already here,… ya just have to know what to look for
to try and understand why some don’t buy into well studied hard science issues like climate change, have been looking for answers else where,… specifically psychology looking at competence and discipline (or rather the lack thereof)
[quote]
…The Marshmallow Test is a measure of delay of gratification. The nature of the experiment is to give children a choice between a smaller reward now and a larger reward later. So in the classic paradigm, children would be offered something like one marshmallow now, or if they wait until the experimenter comes back, they could have two marshmallows.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwxf1BTyKz4
[/quote]
as I see things the idea of the marshmallow test, also explains why no talent (except for photo opts) politicians are running things into the ground (and can’t seem to see the big long term picture),… IOW politicians only look at getting themselves elected to office and pretty much lack the mental ability to do and understand hard science
just my own educated guess but this summer in the northern hemisphere is going to be memorable for a couple of reasons,… first w/ the covid-19 virus around, there is still going to be lots of social distancing, which means less travel, which in turn means less emissions AND less emissions would mean more clear skies
bottom line being, w/ clear skies its going to be a sweltering hot summer and places like Chicago AND NYC are most likely going to experience a heat wave which is going to kill lots of poor people
https://news.wttw.com/2019/07/18/new-film-cooked-revisits-chicago-s-deadly-1995-heat-wave
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/em/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/nycs_risk_landscape_chapter_4.5_extremeheat.pdf
then there is the fact that trump lowered emission standards,…
which means going forward (in the years ahead) the most likely mega drought in the SW USA is going to be a bit more extreme that it other wise would be
http://www.TinyURL.com/Global-Dimming
https://www.piggington.com/climate_change_one_biggest_crises_facing_humanity?page=1#comment-288484
May 4, 2020 @ 9:31 AM
Nytimes says 3000 deaths per
Nytimes says 3000 deaths per day by june 1.
I think we are going to blow past 200k dead before school starts up again.
Jeeeeez.
I’m gonna go bang out some pages. This needs to be done before I can die peacefully.
May 4, 2020 @ 5:31 PM
wait i want to change my
wait i want to change my estimate. 5.7 million dead.
May 5, 2020 @ 2:05 AM
Let’s open the economy and
Let’s open the economy and find out.
But don’t we have super duper computers and sophisticated models and contingency plans? The president should explain costs and benefits of policies, or in other words, death panels. I’m willing to accept the deaths if I have an estimation of what they will be.
May 5, 2020 @ 10:04 AM
just a wild guess but in SD
just a wild guess but in SD which is so close to TJ I would not be too surprised to see the number of dead not trend downward anytime soon,…
[quote]
Baja Border an ‘Achilles Heel’ for COVID-19 Control — Hospital chiefs plead with HHS to start medical checks for thousands who cross from Tijuana daily
…Chief executives of two major California healthcare systems sent a sent a letter late Tuesday to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. They worry their systems will be overrun, not only from local San Diego cases, but from people who traverse the border unknowingly bringing the virus with them.
Border an ‘Achilles Heel’
“What I’d like to see are health checks, just like we would administer at an airport if we had an airplane coming in,” Chris Van Gorder, president and CEO of Scripps Health, told MedPage Today in an interview. One of Scripps’ five hospitals in Chula Vista, just 8 miles from the Tijuana border, is at risk of being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. The border, he said, represents a regional “Achilles heel” that could thwart efforts to prevent viral spread.
…Juan Tovar, MD, an emergency medicine physician and Scripps’ physician operations executive in Chula Vista, said many of these patients are very sick and near death when they come through the door.
“At the beginning, we saw a lot of people who just wanted to be tested. They ranged from minimal to no symptoms to the direly ill. Now we’re treating people who are coming in much sicker, with advanced symptoms and some of them are getting intubated,” or going on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, Tovar said.
“There are people who come in so sick, they are about to stop breathing,” he said. “This is a tough disease, (and) a large percentage of the people who get intubated do not get extubated.”
Though it’s widely believed that COVID-19 is most acute in the aged, at Scripps Chula Vista, more common is the patient 35 to 60 years old. The common link: comorbidities, such as congestive heart failure, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension, conditions often more common in Hispanic communities.
http://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86219
[/quote]
A Day Without a Mexican – Trailer
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYJcfhxMkrQ
May 1, 2020 @ 12:10 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:Should
[quote=scaredyclassic]Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.
Assuming we dont die.
My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let’s go for herd imnunity. I’ll be happy to be wrong.
Vote today![/quote]
Sounds about right to me.
Trump is appointing the death panels as we speak.
May 6, 2020 @ 12:55 PM
Long story short if
Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you’re house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there’s segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they’ve lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.
May 6, 2020 @ 1:00 PM
livinincali wrote:
Depends on
[quote=livinincali]
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
[/quote]
I tend to agree the number of deaths is getting very political and I’m not sure there is a very good way of determining anyway.
I guess you could say the same sort of thing for any death, especially in older folks with multiple conditions. I know when my Dad died they could treat one of his conditions, but it would make the others worse…they could treat another condition, but the same story. So what did he really die from?
All in your point of view.
May 6, 2020 @ 2:28 PM
livinincali wrote:Long story
[quote=livinincali]Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.
Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you’re 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you’re 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.
If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you’re house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there’s segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they’ve lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.[/quote]
long story short? i think yours is a little too short, or maybe makes some assumptions and inferential leaps unsupported by reality.
we do know for instance historically what the average number of deaths is for a given area month by month.
SO lets say in your town over the last 5 years there have been an average of 150 deaths a month.
But say this november, there are 1500 deaths in one month.
you will know that something–not necessarily the CV–but something, is doing some extra killing; it’s not just an accounting error. I mean, there will still be some accounting disputes on some, and if we are having a contest to get the number on the nose, eyah it’ll matter, but we can definitely tell if there’s extra deaths.
what might be the causes?
could be the govt secret forces.
could be chinese drones.
5g networks.
could be people are getting their blood pressure so high due to gov. action that they’re stroking out.
could be they’re starving to death. or maybe it’s just G-d doing his thing. or…
could be coronavirus.
i suppose the gov could be lying about whos dead and whos not.
but it’s going to be difficult to get the docs and coroners on board.
reminds me of this monty python sketch; is this or is this not a dead parrot?
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2hwqnp
“it’s not dead. it’s resting.”
there’s always seemingly unlimited cash to prop up big businesses and banks, but no cash to support actual citizenry.
May 6, 2020 @ 2:42 PM
^^^
Quote:
What New April
^^^
[quote]
What New April Numbers Reveal About the Pandemic’s San Diego Impact
It’s too early to know how the coronavirus ranks among all causes of death in the county since it takes time for that data to be compiled. But one thing is clear: Even though our death rate is lower than some other major California counties, more people died of COVID-19 here last month than they typically do of almost all other causes.
According to San Diego County statistics, at least 122 people died of coronavirus in April in the county. By comparison, here are the five leading causes of death, on average, in the county for the month of April in the years 2014-2018, according to federal statistics:
Heart disease, 401 deaths
Cancer, 384 deaths
Alzheimer’s disease, 118 deaths
Accidents, 104 deaths
Stroke, 103 deaths
These numbers suggest that coronavirus will end up being among the top five causes of death in the county for the month of April 2020, killing more people than other leading causes of death such as diabetes, suicide, respiratory diseases like emphysema, high blood pressure and Parkinson’s disease. It may even rank third behind the top killers by far – heart disease and cancer.
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/news/what-new-april-numbers-reveal-about-the-pandemics-san-diego-impact/
[/quote]
in any case could it be,…
???
PS for context
[quote]
Hotter Temperatures Could Cause Up To 3 Billion People To Migrate
A study published on May 4th by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that over the next 50 years, up to 3.5 billion people will find their existing home intolerably hot, sending them in search of cooler climes. The consequences for the human community could be severe, especially at a time when fear and loathing of immigrants is the dominant cultural norm in many countries.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/05/hotter-temperatures-could-cause-up-to-3-billion-people-to-migrate/
[/quote]
[quote]
Disease evolution: how new illnesses emerge when we change how we live
Humans have been “acquiring” infectious diseases from animals (zoonotic diseases) since we first started hunting wild game on the African savannahs. Indeed, nearly 60% of bugs that infect humans originated in animals.
…Why did these diseases jump species?
The common theme in the spillover of each of these viruses is food; they are a consequence of the human need for protein.
Once the viruses make the species jump, their severity is a major factor in what happens next. It is easier for a mild disease such as Zika to spread unnoticed in a population because it is unlikely to lead a person to seek medical attention.
…Preventing disease outbreaks
The world will not prevent the next global pandemic using “business as usual” thinking. We need to acknowledge we live in a rapidly converging world where solutions cross all sectors of society.
https://theconversation.com/disease-evolution-how-new-illnesses-emerge-when-we-change-how-we-live-54570
[/quote]
May 10, 2020 @ 11:32 AM
I wish the president would
I wish the president would give us a death estimate a with a cost benefit analysis
Doesn’t the government have super duper computers that will spit out that info lickety-split?
July 22, 2020 @ 10:05 PM
Couple months go by, the
Couple months go by, the bodies keep stacking.
October 11, 2020 @ 6:35 PM
200k feels like nothing. We
200k feels like nothing. We need a few million to notice.
Its like they say about gov spending…a billion here a billion there, soon youre talking real money.
October 22, 2020 @ 12:15 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:200k
[quote=scaredyclassic]200k feels like nothing. We need a few million to notice.
Its like they say about gov spending…a billion here a billion there, soon youre talking real money.[/quote]
200k? Those are rookie numbers! Only places 3rd (finalized numbers from 2017):
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
October 22, 2020 @ 12:19 PM
JPJones wrote:
200k? Those
[quote=JPJones]
200k? Those are rookie numbers! Only places 3rd (finalized numbers from 2017):
[/quote]
From nonexistent to number three with a bullet…not a bad year’s work.
October 22, 2020 @ 12:35 PM
Hillary lied, 4 americans
Hillary lied, 4 americans died.
October 22, 2020 @ 1:50 PM
svelte wrote:JPJones
[quote=svelte][quote=JPJones]
200k? Those are rookie numbers! Only places 3rd (finalized numbers from 2017):
[/quote]
From nonexistent to number three with a bullet…not a bad year’s work.[/quote]
Hurray! A third disease that’s a leading cause of death. We really need one to round out the list
October 23, 2020 @ 11:16 AM
Not fair. So many kinds of
Not fair. So many kinds of cancer.
Covid is no. 2 if you split up the cancers.
Testicular cancer, brain cancer, …what connection is there between balls and mind? Completely unrelated.
Each cancer is separate. Cancer of the marrow. Cancer of the stomach. Cancer of the pancreas. And so
Lung cancer. Only 135k dead
Covid 4 da win!!!
Pancreatic cancer deaths a paltry 47,000.
Each cancer is small beer v. The covid, at least insofar as we focus on only the pancreas.
I have had a foot injury that is taking months to heal. Pretty sure im gonna die right away if anything happens to me.
January 21, 2021 @ 5:15 PM
looks like 500k is in the
looks like 500k is in the bag.
now that we are here, it seems like nothing. like real estate prices, you start throwing around big numbers, you get used to it. 100k more? no biggie.
February 10, 2021 @ 4:48 PM
I need to see a breakdown of
I need to see a breakdown of deaths; request at least three categories:
1. From
2. With
3. Because of
February 10, 2021 @ 5:06 PM
would you settle for excess
would you settle for excess deaths?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
your request would require an impossible amount of work I think
February 11, 2021 @ 6:53 AM
Interesting! I had previously
Interesting! I had previously found a table of flu deaths per year; had not considered simply a straight deaths per year, then applying all the “excess” deaths to COVID…..a starting point for a hypothesis.
February 11, 2021 @ 8:33 AM
Im not sure how definitive
Im not sure how definitive that proof is. But with several hospitalized family members, some young, im inclined to believe its deadlyish.
I think now most people feel like, well, old people die, thats what old people do, whos to say covid killed them, theyre so old….
Fetus = incalculable value of human life
Elderly= see ya on the other side, gramps!
February 11, 2021 @ 11:53 AM
Newborn infant: you’re out,
Newborn infant: you’re out, you’re on your own now.
February 11, 2021 @ 2:19 PM
spdrun wrote:Newborn infant:
[quote=spdrun]Newborn infant: you’re out, you’re on your own now.[/quote]
newborns a little young, but i think we are babying kids too much. they can pretty much take care of themselves and hit the road at 12 or so. I knew a guy once who left home at 12 in the late 30s, turned out very successful. why is now different?
anyone over 55, we are too old, should just all be DNR.
February 11, 2021 @ 4:39 PM
Nah, that’s not what I mean
Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.
February 12, 2021 @ 8:57 AM
spdrun wrote:Nah, that’s not
[quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.[/quote]
Ah. True. I can understand the anti abortion pro “life” anti real life reflex though. Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing.
Fetuses, pure potential, clean pristine and unmarked by this wicked world.
February 13, 2021 @ 10:52 AM
spdrun wrote:Nah, that’s not
[quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.[/quote]
The problem is that of moral hazard… for example see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8_Gk4uXMo0
The true first victim are the children. Solving that by taking money from the public and other people who may also need that also victimizes the public good. The problem is that a possible solution to a parent who does not wish/want to be responsible for their own offspring is problematic.
Having a child is not something that is without choice. Many people wait until they can afford to feed the child before having one. Others seem to take the point of ‘here – you take care of it.. and give me some money so that I could be a good parent’.
Where is the line between charity needed in emergencies vs people exploiting charitable people.
In the situation shown in that video, it is highly likely that her children will repeat her behavior because they see it works and requires minimal effort.
[quote=scaredyclassic]Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing[/quote] I wouldn’t say that ‘all’ people fit this category. There are others that are so far beyond this, that the level they obtain is beyond comprehension:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLSNPkf8RCU
February 13, 2021 @ 12:12 PM
Solving that by taking money
As long as our military gets $500 billion a year to go on their murder sprees in such lovely places as Afghanistan and Iraq, we have enough money to help Americans without cutting services to other Americans. Just bring our troops home unilaterally and don’t spend another fucking dime on wars abroad. Same goes for enforcement of victimless crimes. As long as there are law enfarcement (misspelling deliberate) paid to enforce things like prostitution between consenting adults, drug use, drinking from ages 18 to 21, and we spend money putting those cases through our “injustice” system and sometimes imprisoning people for them, we have enough money for needy Americans.
The problem are this country’s priorities … wars, cops, and prisons over social services.
February 14, 2021 @ 11:30 AM
Anyway, how does one know an
Anyway, how does one know an abortion caused a fetuses death? Might have spontaneously aborted. Might have died in choldbirth due to lung issues. Could be brain dead in there. Sudden infant death syndrome.
Of every 100,000 abortions, probably 99,976 wouldve died anyway.
February 14, 2021 @ 7:19 PM
ucodegen wrote:spdrun
[quote=ucodegen][quote=spdrun]Nah, that’s not what I mean … I mean that conservatives are happy to cut things like healthy-child programs, even though an infant can’t choose their parents or how much money they have.
Abortion = bad. Healthy baby programs = also bad.[/quote]
The problem is that of moral hazard… for example see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8_Gk4uXMo0
The true first victim are the children. Solving that by taking money from the public and other people who may also need that also victimizes the public good. The problem is that a possible solution to a parent who does not wish/want to be responsible for their own offspring is problematic.
Having a child is not something that is without choice. Many people wait until they can afford to feed the child before having one. Others seem to take the point of ‘here – you take care of it.. and give me some money so that I could be a good parent’.
Where is the line between charity needed in emergencies vs people exploiting charitable people.
In the situation shown in that video, it is highly likely that her children will repeat her behavior because they see it works and requires minimal effort.
[quote=scaredyclassic]Real people are so awful, tiring, depressing[/quote] I wouldn’t say that ‘all’ people fit this category. There are others that are so far beyond this, that the level they obtain is beyond comprehension:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLSNPkf8RCU%5B/quote%5D
If people waited until they were truly secure enough to have kids, no one would have kids. For 99% of us, we are varying degrees of risk.
August 8, 2021 @ 10:09 PM
I’m thinking we gonna hit one
I’m thinking we gonna hit one million cause Americans are SO FUCKING DUMB.
Or paranoid.
Or something. Just 380k to go. Delta gonna push us over.
But what if it really ramps up. Some really crazy mutation. 100 million dead by 2022.
America wants death, we love it
Burn this mother down.
That’s all I hear about now. That’s all I hear. Turn on television—’Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ A plane goes down. 500 people dead, they don’t talk about it,” Trump told his supporters at a campaign rally in Lumberton, North Carolina, on October 24th. “Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid.’ By the way, on November 4, you won’t hear about it anymore,”
I gotta admit, I’d be happy to see 20 million willfully unvaccinated die … Me and trump, we’d be both laughing
I’m masking up and not going out to eat anymore
August 8, 2021 @ 10:51 PM
Good
Good
August 9, 2021 @ 6:01 AM
Well Florida is sort of
Well Florida is sort of turning into a petridish.
I dont think remote work is going away anytime soon.
You have some people refusing to vaccinate who refuse to wear a mask if they go to work because they feel they would be discriminated against if there is a “mask up if not vaccinated rule” … so the companies are going to not make it mandatory… And meanwhile you have people vaccinated who dont want to hang around those that arent, so they dont want to go to work… And you cant separate vaxxers from non vaxxers abd out them into separate rooms, because thats perceived as discriminatory work policies. lol… im waiting for a variant that mutates into something that vaccines dont work…. its coming… school opening in 1 week. whoohoo. *cough* *cough*… i swear its just allergies…
August 9, 2021 @ 11:17 AM
Considering that we’re not
Considering that we’re not isolated from the rest of the world and their vaccination rate is horrific, mutation will be more likely to happen there than here. They will then bring the mutation into this country. So, there’s almost no way to prevent mutation unless we shut down the entire world like China/Vietnam does and lock you in your house.
August 9, 2021 @ 10:24 AM
Excess deaths over trend
Excess deaths over trend looks like it might top out around 1.1 mil. Congrats to the 1 person who voted that range.
August 9, 2021 @ 11:20 AM
gzz wrote:Excess deaths over
[quote=gzz]Excess deaths over trend looks like it might top out around 1.1 mil. Congrats to the 1 person who voted that range.[/quote]
3.5 months to go. The rate of change over the last 3.5 months will say we won’t be anywhere near 1m. So, we’ll have to wait and see. It won’t be long now.
August 9, 2021 @ 11:51 AM
Probably should do a new poll
Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.
August 9, 2021 @ 1:26 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:Probably
[quote=scaredyclassic]Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.[/quote]
This is the current data for all the death in the US so far by age group. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
The groups affected most by COVID have the highest vaccination rate. So, unless you think COVID will evolve into something else or start killing people of different age groups, data would disagree with you.
Currently, people under 50, there were a total of 29,249 death. People over 50 are extremely well vaccinated. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/
So, do you think somehow we’ll see 100x increase from that death rate # in the next year? The current death rate for people under 50 is <0.02%. Do you expect death rate for that group to rise to 2% over the next year?
August 9, 2021 @ 1:27 PM
I kinda do. At least
I kinda do. At least possibly, smart little hardworking virus adapts into something a bit too deadly and kills most of us. An actual plague.
I’d say 2.5 perc chance of occurring.
August 9, 2021 @ 2:17 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:I kinda
[quote=scaredyclassic]I kinda do. At least possibly, smart little hardworking virus adapts into something a bit too deadly and kills most of us. An actual plague.
I’d say 2.5 perc chance of occurring.[/quote]
Considering people over 50 over the last year have a death rate of 0.5%, 577k death for a population of 110m, statistic and data is not on your side. But ok…
If you’re under 50, you’re ~1.3x as likely to die for opioid than COVID. The number is much worse as you lower the age. For people below 40, the number is closer to 2x.
August 9, 2021 @ 3:33 PM
Agreed for the current state
Agreed for the current state of the virus. But I expect this virus to get much stronger.
This verse keeps coming to mind. I feel death is coming for us all. Scaredycat or realist?
.Full fathom five thy father lies;
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
Ding-dong.
Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell.
August 9, 2021 @ 6:52 PM
Yes, we all will die some
Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that
August 9, 2021 @ 6:56 PM
If one was kooky enough to
If one was kooky enough to believe in a G-d involved in human affairs, one could almost sense that arrogant humanity is tempting her to just fucking wipe us out in a clean blow and start fresh with Noah, some livestock and a dove2
August 9, 2021 @ 7:15 PM
an wrote:Yes, we all will die
[quote=an]Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that[/quote]
What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?
Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?
August 9, 2021 @ 7:17 PM
“What is quite unlooked for
“What is quite unlooked for is more crushing in its effect, and unexpectedness adds to the weight of a disaster. This is a reason for ensuring that nothing ever takes us by surprise. We should project our thoughts ahead of us at every turn and have in mind every possible eventuality instead of only the usual course of events…
Rehearse them in your mind: exile, torture, war, shipwreck. All the terms of our human lot should be before our eyes.”
— Seneca
The great Booker T. Washington rose from humble origins in Hale’s Ford, Virginia to a position of immense responsibility. He ran a school with some 1,500 students, he employed hundreds of people, he advised politicians and activists and traveled across the country giving speeches. How did he manage it all? And with such equanimity and strength? He had a little exercise:
“When I begin my work in the morning, I expect to have a successful and pleasant day of it, but at the same time I prepare myself to hear that one of our school buildings is on fire, or has burned, or that some disagreeable accident had occurred, or that someone has abused me in a public address or a printed article, for something that I have done or omitted to do, or or something that he had heard that I had said—probably something I had never thought of saying.”
The origins of this exercise go back some two thousand years. It’s the Stoic premeditatio malorum—the premeditation of the evils and troubles that might lie ahead. It’s the exercise of imagining things that could go wrong or be taken away from us. It helps us prepare for life’s inevitable setbacks. We don’t always get what is rightfully ours, even if we’ve earned it. Not everything is as clean and straightforward as we think they may be. Psychologically, we must prepare ourselves for this to happen.
As Seneca would say, the unexpected blows of fortune fall heaviest and most painfully, which is why the wise man thinks about them in advance. It’s also impossible to prepare for or prevent something you’re unaware of. The Stoic doesn’t see this act of negative visualization as pessimistic, but simply a feature of their self-confident optimism: I’m ready to face anything that happens and I’m also ready to do the work necessary now to ensure I don’t waste energy on problems that could have been solved in advance.
So if you want to have a great day today, think about all the ways it might go sideways. Be prepared for that. Think about how you’d handle it, all the things you would need to do in response. Practice being calm in the face of how overwhelming it might seem. Remember that people will be depending on you and that’s why you need to respond right. Consider what steps you can take now in anticipation.
Expect to have a successful and pleasant day, of course, just be ready in case it isn’t.
From THE DAILY STOIC
August 9, 2021 @ 8:57 PM
scaredyclassic wrote:an
[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=an]Yes, we all will die some day. I’m willing to bet everything i have on that[/quote]
What odds would you give me on 30 million dead by Dec 2022?
Would it really be a surprise if shit got seriously bad?[/quote]
Same odds as you giving me on everyone will die.
Yes, it would be a surprise to me.
August 9, 2021 @ 4:08 PM
an wrote:scaredyclassic
[quote=an][quote=scaredyclassic]Probably should do a new poll for Dec 2022.
Everyone will eventually be immune by vaccine, contracting covid or death. This may very well just be the beginning and 1 measly million dead a mere opening salvo.[/quote]
This is the current data for all the death in the US so far by age group. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/
The groups affected most by COVID have the highest vaccination rate. So, unless you think COVID will evolve into something else or start killing people of different age groups, data would disagree with you.
Currently, people under 50, there were a total of 29,249 death. People over 50 are extremely well vaccinated.
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-states/
So, do you think somehow we’ll see 100x increase from that death rate # in the next year? The current death rate for people under 50 is <0.02%. Do you expect death rate for that group to rise to 2% over the next year?[/quote]
thankfully so far my guesstimate of 1-2 million is a few hundred thousand away (I hope continue to be way wrong at the end betting period)
BUT as with the 1918 virus which from what I gather mutated,... let's hope the SARS-CoV-2 virus will not continue to mutate into something more virulent/lethal than what is going around at the present moment (given the increasing global vaccine rate)
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
January 4, 2022 @ 1:53 PM
Looks like 850,000 or
Looks like 850,000 or thereabouts was the winning number for our first year and a 9 months.
January 13, 2022 @ 8:49 AM
Probably time to make sure
Probably time to make sure your cabinets are full. Not hoarder full, but full.
There are sooo many people catching Omicron that it will have to affect the distribution chain to the grocery stores here shortly.
January 13, 2022 @ 9:58 AM
Had an interesting
Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results
Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok
I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far
January 13, 2022 @ 10:58 AM
sdrealtor wrote:Had an
[quote=sdrealtor]Had an interesting conversation with friend who lives down by Atlantic City. He said shelves are empty and he drove to 3 markets trying to find chicken. Did an informal survey among friends on one of my text chains. This was results
Bay Area fine
Sacramento Fine
Boston fine
Boston fine in his town but shelves empty in next town when wife went
North NJ fine
Arizona fine
Miami fine
Nashville did not respond but assume ok. He’d hunt or slaughter a cow if he got hungry anyway
Cleveland did not respond but assume ok
I keep seeing articles about this on various sources but seems sporadic so far[/quote]
I just went shopping this AM spent $500. Was able to find most things but there were more outages than usual. Examples.
Cream cheese – the normal spreadable Philly cream cheese has been out (in plain flavor) for over a month now
Paper plates – shelf picked clean
Chicken – limited selection, only 2 of the boneless skinless breasts left and I grabbed them both
Rice – Near East boxed rice has been out for months, except on the rare times I find a few boxes
Cereal – those shelves were very sad! Only a few sparse boxes!
Other shelves were noticeably emptier than usual including olive oil, hummus, tuna, turkey sausage
Things aren’t at the “sound the alarm” stage yet but shelves were noticeably thinner than past weeks. Maybe we won’t go back to shortages, but my ears perked up when I saw things today. Just sayin.
January 13, 2022 @ 3:40 PM
Interesting. Seems far more
Interesting. Seems far more limited than here. Barely noticeable around me so far