Poll. Total covid19 deaths, in USA, by dec 2021.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 30, 2020 - 1:02pm
65k to 75k
0% (0 votes)
75k to 85k
0% (0 votes)
85k to 125k
0% (0 votes)
125k to 195k
29% (5 votes)
195k to 500k
24% (4 votes)
500k to 1 million
29% (5 votes)
1 million to 2 million
6% (1 vote)
2 million to 5 million
0% (0 votes)
5 million to 10 million
6% (1 vote)
10 million to 20 million
0% (0 votes)
20 million to 50 million
0% (0 votes)
Greater than 50 million
6% (1 vote)
Total votes: 17
Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 30, 2020 - 1:15pm.

Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.

Assuming we dont die.

My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let's go for herd imnunity. I'll be happy to be wrong.

Vote today!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 30, 2020 - 1:24pm.

https://www.econlib.org/my-bet-on-covid-...

Just last month, 100k sounded high!
Could be a fun office pool.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 1, 2020 - 8:20am.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

May be some trouble agreeing on accounting method.

But we can argue that later

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 1, 2020 - 12:10pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
Should be fun to look back on, either way. Things will turn out fine, in which case we can chuckle about how scared we were. Or things will be horrific, and we can chuckle about our naivete.

Assuming we dont die.

My money is on 674,336 total deaths. I figure about 1% of senior citizens, 450,000, and 225,000 others. This is assuming america gets back to the business of mass consumption in short order, and stops and restarts a few times, and finally says, fuck it, let's go for herd imnunity. I'll be happy to be wrong.

Vote today!

Sounds about right to me.

Trump is appointing the death panels as we speak.

Submitted by phaster on May 2, 2020 - 11:34am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

May be some trouble agreeing on accounting method.

But we can argue that later

seems by the answers provided people here are optimistic this clusterfuck isn’t going to be all that bad in the grand scheme of things,... as for me I’m not so sure

for insight, let’s consider the population of the USA > 300 million,... and reading medical reports seems those most at risk of infection are those elderly and/or w/ pre-existing medical conditions like diabetes/hypertension/etc.

so if we’re lucky a win for december 2021 would be considered if less than one percent of the USA population die

WRT the accounting, here I am also accounting for knock on effects such as people who can't take the pressure and take their own life because sad fact of the matter is the covid-19 virus isn't going away anytime soon, so pressure will be put on supply chains as well as pocketbooks

Quote:

Top E.R. Doctor Who Treated Virus Patients Dies by Suicide

A top emergency room doctor at a Manhattan hospital that treated many coronavirus patients died by suicide on Sunday, her father and the police said.

Dr. Lorna M. Breen, the medical director of the emergency department at NewYork-Presbyterian Allen Hospital, died in Charlottesville, Va., where she was staying with family, her father said in an interview.

Tyler Hawn, a spokesman for the Charlottesville Police Department, said in an email that officers on Sunday responded to a call seeking medical assistance.

“The victim was taken to U.V.A. Hospital for treatment, but later succumbed to self-inflicted injuries,” Mr. Hawn said.

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/nyregion/new-...

Quote:

Coronavirus gets a promising drug. MAGA world isn’t buying it.

Over three weeks ago, hydroxychloroquine was all the rage in MAGA world, despite flawed and scattered evidence about whether the drug could help cure coronavirus. Now there is another drug, remdesivir, with positive early scientific data.

Much of MAGA world wants little to do with it.

At first, it may seem like a head-scratching response. President Donald Trump’s base has been quick to trumpet any potential solutions to the coronavirus pandemic — especially those Trump himself promotes — regardless of the red flags from medical experts. But with remdesivir, it’s the Trump-boosting pundits who are raising the red flags, even as the president expresses optimism.

Indeed, the same segment of the right that claimed scientists and the media were deliberately downplaying hydroxychloroquine in order to hurt Trump’s standing are now the ones downplaying remdesivir. On Fox News, Laura Ingraham suggested that remdesivir, as a newer drug being produced by the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, could be unsafe and expensive. Those who initially helped raise the profile of hydroxychloroquine raised doubts about the remdesivir studies.

The unexpected reaction appears to stem from the differences in how the two drugs came into the public spotlight. Hydroxychloroquine bubbled up through the MAGA grassroots — little-known investors promoted it online, got on Fox News and suddenly the president was talking about it from the White House. Remdesivir’s progress came through a government-funded trial that had the blessing of Dr. Anthony Fauci,...

www.politico.com/news/2020/05/02/donald-...

Quote:

The U.S. wants Mexico to keep its defense and health-care factories open. Mexican workers are getting sick and dying.

MEXICO CITY — For years, the United States outfitted its armed forces and hospitals with products made partially in Mexican factories, trusting that the world's busiest cross-border supply chain could withstand any crisis.

Then came the novel coronavirus, and a new question: Would Mexico keep its workers on the line to continue producing goods considered “essential” to the United States?

www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_america...

Quote:

31% Can’t Pay the Rent: ‘It’s Only Going to Get Worse’

As the economic shutdown pares tenants’ incomes, April payments have been reduced, deferred or withheld. Some landlords see their property at risk.

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/business/econ...

Quote:

COVID-19 Is Here. Now How Long Will It Last?

...we may get into a cycle of periodic social distancing measures until it is possible to develop and mass-produce a vaccine, which experts say will take 12-18 months, or we can find effective ways to treat COVID-19.

https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/2...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 2, 2020 - 11:46am.

In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it's cold black heart.

Submitted by phaster on May 2, 2020 - 12:03pm.

^^^

don't think the USA needs 10 million dead,... point has been made already?!

Quote:

QUESTION: If an American president loses more Americans over the course of six weeks than died in the entirety of the Vietnam war does he deserve to be reelected?

TRUMP: So, yeah, we have lost a lot of people but if you look at what original projections were 2.2 million we are probably heading to 60,000, 70,000--it's far too many. One person is too many for this and I think we made a lot of really good decisions. The big decision was closing the border or doing the band people coming in from China obviously other than American citizens which had to come in, can't say you can't come in, you can't come back to your country. I think we have made a lot of good decisions. I think that Mike Pence and the task force have done a fantastic job. I think that everybody working on the ventilators you see what we have done there, have done unbelievable. The press doesn't talk about ventilators anymore. They just don't want to talk about them and that's okay but they reason they don't want to talk--that was the subject that nobody would get off of. They don't want to talk about them.

We are in the same position on testing. We are lapping the world on testing and the world is coming to us as I said they are coming to us saying what are you doing, how do you do it and we are helping them. So, no, I think we have done a great job and one person I will say this, one person is too many. Thank you all very much. Thank you. Thank you.

www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/...

...what needs to be acknowledged is the problem(s) w/ the environment

www.TinyURL.com/EarthDayTeachIn

https://www.piggington.com/climate_chang...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 2, 2020 - 3:13pm.

10 million dead min. To reevaluate need for beach day

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 2, 2020 - 4:57pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it's cold black heart.

Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 3, 2020 - 8:01am.

You dont have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.

Changes are coming

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 3, 2020 - 8:33am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
In my heart, I feel like america needs 10 million dead to feel anything in it's cold black heart.

Cold black heart? How dare you?! America is full of caring and compassion.

Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.

People are cheap, money is dear

Submitted by phaster on May 3, 2020 - 4:58pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:

Once the global warming effects start hitting, these will seem like to good old days. We will reminisce about the halcyon times of the pandemic.

sadly global warming effects are already here,... ya just have to know what to look for

to try and understand why some don’t buy into well studied hard science issues like climate change, have been looking for answers else where,… specifically psychology looking at competence and discipline (or rather the lack thereof)

Quote:

...The Marshmallow Test is a measure of delay of gratification. The nature of the experiment is to give children a choice between a smaller reward now and a larger reward later. So in the classic paradigm, children would be offered something like one marshmallow now, or if they wait until the experimenter comes back, they could have two marshmallows.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rwxf1BTyKz4

as I see things the idea of the marshmallow test, also explains why no talent (except for photo opts) politicians are running things into the ground (and can’t seem to see the big long term picture),… IOW politicians only look at getting themselves elected to office and pretty much lack the mental ability to do and understand hard science

just my own educated guess but this summer in the northern hemisphere is going to be memorable for a couple of reasons,... first w/ the covid-19 virus around, there is still going to be lots of social distancing, which means less travel, which in turn means less emissions AND less emissions would mean more clear skies

bottom line being, w/ clear skies its going to be a sweltering hot summer and places like Chicago AND NYC are most likely going to experience a heat wave which is going to kill lots of poor people

https://news.wttw.com/2019/07/18/new-fil...

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/em/downloads...

then there is the fact that trump lowered emission standards,...

which means going forward (in the years ahead) the most likely mega drought in the SW USA is going to be a bit more extreme that it other wise would be

www.TinyURL.com/Global-Dimming

https://www.piggington.com/climate_chang...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 4, 2020 - 9:31am.

Nytimes says 3000 deaths per day by june 1.

I think we are going to blow past 200k dead before school starts up again.

Jeeeeez.

I'm gonna go bang out some pages. This needs to be done before I can die peacefully.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 4, 2020 - 5:31pm.

wait i want to change my estimate. 5.7 million dead.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 5, 2020 - 2:05am.

Let’s open the economy and find out.
But don’t we have super duper computers and sophisticated models and contingency plans? The president should explain costs and benefits of policies, or in other words, death panels. I’m willing to accept the deaths if I have an estimation of what they will be.

Submitted by phaster on May 5, 2020 - 10:04am.

just a wild guess but in SD which is so close to TJ I would not be too surprised to see the number of dead not trend downward anytime soon,...

Quote:

Baja Border an 'Achilles Heel' for COVID-19 Control — Hospital chiefs plead with HHS to start medical checks for thousands who cross from Tijuana daily

...Chief executives of two major California healthcare systems sent a sent a letter late Tuesday to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. They worry their systems will be overrun, not only from local San Diego cases, but from people who traverse the border unknowingly bringing the virus with them.

Border an 'Achilles Heel'

"What I'd like to see are health checks, just like we would administer at an airport if we had an airplane coming in," Chris Van Gorder, president and CEO of Scripps Health, told MedPage Today in an interview. One of Scripps' five hospitals in Chula Vista, just 8 miles from the Tijuana border, is at risk of being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients. The border, he said, represents a regional "Achilles heel" that could thwart efforts to prevent viral spread.

...Juan Tovar, MD, an emergency medicine physician and Scripps' physician operations executive in Chula Vista, said many of these patients are very sick and near death when they come through the door.

"At the beginning, we saw a lot of people who just wanted to be tested. They ranged from minimal to no symptoms to the direly ill. Now we're treating people who are coming in much sicker, with advanced symptoms and some of them are getting intubated," or going on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, Tovar said.

"There are people who come in so sick, they are about to stop breathing," he said. "This is a tough disease, (and) a large percentage of the people who get intubated do not get extubated."

Though it's widely believed that COVID-19 is most acute in the aged, at Scripps Chula Vista, more common is the patient 35 to 60 years old. The common link: comorbidities, such as congestive heart failure, diabetes, obesity, and hypertension, conditions often more common in Hispanic communities.

www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/c...

A Day Without a Mexican - Trailer
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYJcfhxMkrQ

Submitted by livinincali on May 6, 2020 - 12:55pm.

Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.

Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you're 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you're 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.

If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you're house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there's segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they've lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.

Submitted by svelte on May 6, 2020 - 1:00pm.

livinincali wrote:

Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you're 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you're 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.

I tend to agree the number of deaths is getting very political and I'm not sure there is a very good way of determining anyway.

I guess you could say the same sort of thing for any death, especially in older folks with multiple conditions. I know when my Dad died they could treat one of his conditions, but it would make the others worse...they could treat another condition, but the same story. So what did he really die from?

All in your point of view.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 6, 2020 - 2:28pm.

livinincali wrote:
Long story short if governments they feel that if keeping you in fear gives them control the number will be high. If they have to give up because of economic implications and rebellion the numbers will be hidden and much lower.

Depends on how you classify a Covid-19 death. If you're 18 with a multiple gun shot wounds and test positive for Covid-19 are you dead from Covid-19 or the gun shot wound. If you're 95 and die and natural causes i.e. a hearth attack and not pneumonia but test positive for Covid-19 are you a victim of a heart attack or Covid-19.

If the governments want control and tell you to stay in you're house and do as your told the number will be high. Fear is the only thing they have now. If there's segments of the population that tell them to get bent and rebel because they've lost that control the number will be lower. Just depends on what you think you have to do to stay in power.

long story short? i think yours is a little too short, or maybe makes some assumptions and inferential leaps unsupported by reality.

we do know for instance historically what the average number of deaths is for a given area month by month.

SO lets say in your town over the last 5 years there have been an average of 150 deaths a month.

But say this november, there are 1500 deaths in one month.

you will know that something--not necessarily the CV--but something, is doing some extra killing; it's not just an accounting error. I mean, there will still be some accounting disputes on some, and if we are having a contest to get the number on the nose, eyah it'll matter, but we can definitely tell if there's extra deaths.

what might be the causes?

could be the govt secret forces.

could be chinese drones.

5g networks.

could be people are getting their blood pressure so high due to gov. action that they're stroking out.

could be they're starving to death. or maybe it's just G-d doing his thing. or...

could be coronavirus.

i suppose the gov could be lying about whos dead and whos not.

but it's going to be difficult to get the docs and coroners on board.

reminds me of this monty python sketch; is this or is this not a dead parrot?

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2hwqnp

"it's not dead. it's resting."

there's always seemingly unlimited cash to prop up big businesses and banks, but no cash to support actual citizenry.

Submitted by phaster on May 6, 2020 - 2:42pm.

^^^

Quote:

What New April Numbers Reveal About the Pandemic's San Diego Impact

It’s too early to know how the coronavirus ranks among all causes of death in the county since it takes time for that data to be compiled. But one thing is clear: Even though our death rate is lower than some other major California counties, more people died of COVID-19 here last month than they typically do of almost all other causes.

According to San Diego County statistics, at least 122 people died of coronavirus in April in the county. By comparison, here are the five leading causes of death, on average, in the county for the month of April in the years 2014-2018, according to federal statistics:

Heart disease, 401 deaths
Cancer, 384 deaths
Alzheimer’s disease, 118 deaths
Accidents, 104 deaths
Stroke, 103 deaths

These numbers suggest that coronavirus will end up being among the top five causes of death in the county for the month of April 2020, killing more people than other leading causes of death such as diabetes, suicide, respiratory diseases like emphysema, high blood pressure and Parkinson’s disease. It may even rank third behind the top killers by far – heart disease and cancer.

www.voiceofsandiego.org/topics/news/what...

in any case could it be,...

???

PS for context

Quote:

Hotter Temperatures Could Cause Up To 3 Billion People To Migrate

A study published on May 4th by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that over the next 50 years, up to 3.5 billion people will find their existing home intolerably hot, sending them in search of cooler climes. The consequences for the human community could be severe, especially at a time when fear and loathing of immigrants is the dominant cultural norm in many countries.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/05/05/hot...

Quote:

Disease evolution: how new illnesses emerge when we change how we live

Humans have been “acquiring” infectious diseases from animals (zoonotic diseases) since we first started hunting wild game on the African savannahs. Indeed, nearly 60% of bugs that infect humans originated in animals.

...Why did these diseases jump species?

The common theme in the spillover of each of these viruses is food; they are a consequence of the human need for protein.

Once the viruses make the species jump, their severity is a major factor in what happens next. It is easier for a mild disease such as Zika to spread unnoticed in a population because it is unlikely to lead a person to seek medical attention.

...Preventing disease outbreaks

The world will not prevent the next global pandemic using “business as usual” thinking. We need to acknowledge we live in a rapidly converging world where solutions cross all sectors of society.

https://theconversation.com/disease-evol...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 10, 2020 - 11:32am.

I wish the president would give us a death estimate a with a cost benefit analysis
Doesn’t the government have super duper computers that will spit out that info lickety-split?

President Trump and his advisers shifted from hour-by-hour crisis management to what they characterize as a long-term strategy aimed at reviving the decimated economy and preparing for additional outbreaks this fall.
But in doing so, the administration is effectively bowing to — and asking Americans to accept — a devastating proposition: that a steady, daily accumulation of lonely deaths is the grim cost of reopening the nation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/...